makroekonomi

U.S. labor costs rose exactly as expected — and in a market that’s still on edge, that’s a bit of a relief.

The facts: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, Oct. 30) reported that the Q3 Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% from Q2 — down from 0.9% in Q2 and exactly in line with expectations. Over the year, total compensation rose 3.4%: wages +3.1%, benefits +3.9%. Reuters described it as a moderate increase signaling subdued wage inflation.

My take: this isn’t a catalyst for a rally, but it’s one less burden on the Fed’s shoulders. Easing wage pressures weaken the case for further tightening — although the Fed’s Oct. 28 decision still kept rates at 3.75–4.00%, with two votes in favor of a hike, so this one data point hasn’t reversed that hawkish tone. For crypto, the backdrop is still tough: BTC is hovering around $77,400 tonight after the hack shock, so I see this mild macro data as a buffer, not a boost.

What I’m watching: the follow-up data tonight and whether BTC can hold above $78,000 through the weekend.

Do you think this mild wage data is enough to soften the Fed’s hawkish tone, or does the market need more than one quarter of evidence?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#MakroEkonomi #TheFed $BTC

Along with the sharp rises in the market, <phone>gold</phone> reached its highest level since January against $BTC and more than 18 ounces of gold can be bought with one Bitcoin. While both hard assets are in an upward trend, concerns about governments' debt inflation rather than bond yields lie behind this move. This change in macroeconomic conditions is attracting the attention of investors who closely follow the parity between the two assets. #Bitcoin #Altin #Macroeconomics

The attacks launched by Türkiye against Iran and the escalation of geopolitical tensions have caused volatility in global markets. Along with this development, Brent crude rose above $93, while US bond yields also climbed toward the 4.8% level. As a result of macroeconomic pressures and a decline in risk appetite, it fell below $$BTC 76.500. #Bitcoin #Makroekonomi #Kripto

Is the market starting to anticipate another Fed rate hike?

As of September 24, 2026, the spread between the Fed’s effective interest rate and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at -0.93 percentage points, or -93 bps. This means the 2-year yield is higher than the Fed’s effective interest rate.

The negative spread indicates that the bond market is starting to price in higher interest rates ahead. However, this does not guarantee that the Fed will raise rates again.

For crypto traders, expectations of higher interest rates could weigh on liquidity and sentiment toward risk assets such as Bitcoin. U.S. Treasury yield movements and inflation data are important indicators to watch.

Follow Menjadi Trader for more market updates.

NFA, DYOR.

#menjaditrader #TheFed #Bitcoin #Crypto #Makroekonomi