Menjadi Trader

Pattern 1,064 Days Up, 364 Days Down: Is This Bitcoin Cycle Coincidence or Market Blueprint?

A prediction from an anonymous account has gone viral again in the crypto community. It claims that Bitcoin moves in a repeating pattern: 1,064 days of rising phase, followed by 364 days of declining phase. This pattern is said to have occurred 4 times with high precision in previous cycles.

If this scenario repeats, the peak price (ATH) is projected to occur on October 6, 2025. After that, the market is expected to enter a correction phase until November 9, 2026, with a potential bottom in the $35,000–$45,000 area.

Is this merely a statistical coincidence or a consistent cycle structure? Traders need to understand that while historical patterns can provide context, the market is still influenced by liquidity, macroeconomics, and global sentiment.

Follow Become a Trader for updates on cycle analysis, bull & bear market scenarios, and strategies to face volatility. #becomeatrader #bitcoin #cryptocycle #bullbear
NFA, DYOR.

The Fed Kompak Tahan Suku Bunga Lebih Lama, Apa Dampaknya ke Bitcoin?

A number of Federal Reserve officials have signaled that the US benchmark interest rate is likely to be maintained for a longer period. This step is considered necessary for the central bank to have enough time to evaluate the impact of previous cuts while ensuring inflation does not heat up again.

Cleveland Fed Governor Beth Hammack emphasized that the "wait and see" approach is key amid global economic uncertainty. This stance indicates that the Fed is not in a hurry to loosen monetary policy more aggressively.

For the crypto market, the prolonged high interest rate policy could pressure risky assets in the short term as liquidity remains tight. However, any change in policy direction going forward has the potential to be a catalyst for significant volatility in Bitcoin and altcoins.

Follow macro updates and other sharp analyses only at Becoming a Trader, whether in a bull market or bear market, always be ready with a strategy. #menjaditrader #bitcoin #TheFed #cryptonews
NFA, DYOR.

Fear makes traders flee too quickly.
Greed makes traders forget the limits.

Both are equally dangerous.
Because decisions are no longer made from a plan,
but from momentary emotions.

If trading only triggers adrenaline without a clear direction,
that is not a process
that is just a sensation.

Healthy trading feels boring.
It is precisely there that consistency is born.

BTC Insight

Bitcoin is again moving in a vulnerable area. The price briefly dropped below $69K, held back by strong resistance, and generated conflicting signals. The market clearly lacks a definitive direction.

Key Overview

Technically, BTC remains pressured below the EMA with momentum leaning bearish.

Community sentiment is divided between anticipation of a further decline and confidence in long-term accumulation.

Institutional interest has not waned, although selling pressure is still emerging from some sides.

Positive Side

Institutional confidence remains: Goldman Sachs revealed $1.1 billion BTC exposure, while the spot ETF recorded $145 million inflow in a single day.

Long-term structure is relatively intact: the price is still holding above the main trendline, indicating silent accumulation.

Adoption continues to expand: Binance QR payments in Peru and BTC fee cuts by Cash App strengthen utility and market access.

Risks Still Looming

Technical setup is not friendly: EMA 7/25/99 above the price, bearish MACD, RSI still weakening.

Supply pressure is increasing: deposits of 4,200 BTC from old holders and sales of 4,451 BTC by miners could add to selling pressure.

A deeper correction scenario is still being discussed, with extreme targets in the $38K–$60K range.

Sentiment

The bearish narrative dominates, with extreme crash predictions even surfacing.

Most see BTC moving sideways with high volatility, rather than collapsing directly.

On the other hand, long-term optimism remains alive, with many considering this phase similar to gold accumulation before a major breakout.

➡️ Conclusion: the short term is still heavy and full of noise, but the long-term foundation has not collapsed. This is a test of patience, not an ideal time for emotional decisions.

Many people enter trading with the dream of getting rich quickly:
with minimal capital, maximum profit.

The problem is, the reality of business doesn't work that way.
Risk and profit always go hand in hand.

We often prepare to imagine big profits,
but when big losses come, it’s the system or the business that gets blamed.

In fact, it’s not the trading that is wrong,
but the expectations that were unrealistic from the start.

I can't possibly remind each coin that's currently active.
The market keeps moving, traders need to learn independently.

The chart and levels have been completely shared.
For those that are already running in profit, please secure your position.
For those that haven't started, wait for confirmation according to the plan.

You can adjust the risk.
The important thing: losses should be determined before entry, not after panicking.

📌
Complete tutorial on how to limit losses:
https://t.me/menjadi_trader/2827

It should be emphasized:
this is a free channel, not a VIP service or paid channel.

I share setups as learning material and opportunities,
not to be held until exit.

$SHIB OUTLOOK
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$PUMP hit tp, pretty good for buying chicken noodles🍜

Michael Saylor Gaspol Accumulation: Buying Strategy of 1.142 BTC Amid Market Pressure
While the crypto market is still under pressure, Strategy Inc. has increased its aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin. The company led by Michael Saylor purchased an additional 1.142 BTC worth around US$90 million, reaffirming their long-term confidence in the digital asset.

With this latest purchase, Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings now amount to approximately 714.644 BTC as of February 8, 2026. Interestingly, the average accumulation price is around US$78,815 per BTC, a level that implicitly positions Saylor as a long-term fundamental value zone, even though current market prices are moving lower.

This move signals extreme confidence from the largest Bitcoin-holding institution in the world. Saylor's actions could influence market psychology, especially among investors who are still hesitant during periods of high volatility.

Follow market updates and institutional perspectives with Becoming a Trader, bull market or bear market, MT always winner. #becomingatrader #bitcoin #cryptonews #marketpsychology
NFA, DYOR.

$ANIME
OUTLOOK
TIMEFRAME : 3 JAM

Kevin Warsh Turns Out to Be Not as Hawkish as Initially Suspected, Bullish Signal for Gold?
Kevin Warsh's latest statements have surfaced a new perspective on the direction of US monetary policy. He hinted at the desire to revive close collaboration between the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve like in the pre-1951 era, which means the government could potentially have greater influence over the central bank's decisions.

Not only that, Warsh also pushed the idea of yield-curve control, where the Fed sets a maximum (ceiling) limit on bond yields. If yields breach that level, the central bank is required to conduct QE to keep it in check. Historically, this scheme is identical to increased liquidity and pressure on the value of the currency.

For the market, such a policy direction is considered beneficial for hedging assets against monetary debasement, especially gold. Assuming this policy is actually implemented, the chances of gold rallying back and breaking through the $5,000 area are starting to be discussed.

Keep an eye on macro dynamics and their impact on the crypto market with Become a Trader, bull market or bear market, MT always winner. #becomingatrader #macroeconomics #gold #cryptomarket
NFA, DYOR.

BTC Insights

The last 24 hours have been quite wild for Bitcoin. The price experienced some pressure, but at the same time, there are signs of accumulation from major players and new incentives from platforms. The market is ultimately in a state of indecision: not bullish, but also not completely giving up.

Key Highlights

Institutions are beginning to accumulate BTC at the current price levels.

The technical structure still shows pressure, coupled with a significant outflow of funds.

Regulatory issues, particularly regarding stablecoins, have the potential to change the market's liquidity flow.

Positive Aspects

Institutional funds are moving: major entities like the SAFU Fund and reputable analytics firms are increasing their BTC holdings, signaling long-term confidence.

Platform incentives are becoming aggressive: a bonus of +2.5% APR for BFUSD holders maintaining long BTCUSDT positions could drive derivative demand.

Whale activity supports accumulation: a withdrawal of 3,500 BTC (~$249 million) from exchanges shows intent to hold, not sell.

Ongoing Risks

The 7 EMA is still below the 25 & 99 EMA, plus a bearish MACD → downward momentum is not over yet.

The outflow of capital has been quite large in the last 24 hours (up to $58.9 million), reflecting market caution.

Mining difficulty has decreased by 11%, the deepest drop since 2021, due to a plummeting hashrate → signaling pressure from miners.

Sentiment

Concerns about stablecoin regulations are widely discussed, as they could separate fiat-crypto pathways.

Small activity in the “Satoshi wallet” has sparked speculation, ranging from merely symbolic to hype-inducing.

Retail investors appear to be panicking (Google searches for BTC have surged), while institutional holders seem relatively calm.

➡️ Conclusion: smart money appears to be starting to enter, but the market structure does not yet support a reversal. This is a noisy phase, focus on data, not emotions.

Regulation Stalled, US Crypto Euphoria Begins to Fade
Market hopes for clarity on crypto regulations in the United States have dimmed again. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that discussions on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) are still stalled in Congress due to widespread rejection from legislators. This uncertainty is believed to contribute to selling pressure in the crypto market.

Speaking at a conference in California, Waller noted that the optimism that briefly lifted crypto prices after Donald Trump's election is starting to wane. He believes that some of the euphoria has faded as market participants recalibrate risks amid high volatility in digital assets.

On the other hand, The Fed plans to launch a proposal for "skinny master accounts" before the end of the year. This scheme focuses on payment systems without full features like traditional bank accounts, aimed at encouraging innovation while limiting risks for central banks.

Market pressure is reflected in Bitcoin's price, which slipped to around US$70,000 amid bearish retail sentiment. Waller emphasized that the crypto market is indeed separate from the traditional financial system, making it vulnerable to sharp corrections.

Keep following crypto updates and learn to read market directions with Become a Trader, bull market or bear market, MT always winner. #becomeatrader #bitcoin #cryptonews #BTC
NFA, DYOR.

$PNUT OUTLOOK
TIMEFRAME : 3 JAM

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$HBAR OUTLOOK
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$WLD OUTLOOK
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$XRP OUTLOOK
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