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📊 #junepayrolls57khikeoddsfallto50% — One Report Changed the Entire Market Narrative
June's Non-Farm Payrolls came in at just 57K, far below the 113K expected by the market. This wasn't just a disappointing number—it completely shifted expectations around the Fed's next move. 📉
The weakness didn't stop there. April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74K, while the household survey showed 507K fewer people employed in a single month. On top of that, the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021. ⚠️
As soon as the data was released, market expectations changed quickly. The probability of a September rate hike fell from around 65% to nearly 50%. Even Warsh's tone at Sintra turned noticeably more cautious, acknowledging that inflation risks have eased. 🏦➡️🕊️
Market Reaction: 🚀
🟠 BTC rebounded from around $57K to $61,885 (+4.5%) 📈
💰 Bitcoin ETFs saw $222M in inflows, ending a 10-day outflow streak.
💵 The DXY slipped to 100.85, signaling a weaker U.S. dollar. 📉
🔥 Around $281M in crypto shorts were liquidated within just 24 hours.
Earlier, Bank of America expected three rate hikes (September, October, and December), but that outlook relied on a strong labor market. With payroll growth at only 57K, the probability of a September hike has now dropped below 50% for the first time since the June dot plot. 📊
💵 With nearly $322B in stablecoins waiting on the sidelines, the real question isn't if liquidity returns to risk assets—it's when. ⏳🚀
One economic report can reshape an entire quarter. This may have been that moment. 🔄📈
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