datapasar

Bitcoin shorts on CME are shrinking — but this number isn’t a buy signal, and I’ll explain why.

Key figures:
• BTC hedge funds (leveraged funds): net short -2.591 contracts as of Nov 3, improving by +1.388 contracts over the week (CFTC, via ByKaranteli; confirmed by AlphaScala). The trajectory: -6.852 (Oct 6) → -3.979 (Oct 27) → -2.591 (Nov 3). One CME contract = 5 BTC, so -2.591 contracts ≈ 12.955 BTC.
• BTC asset managers: net long 2.403 contracts, trimmed by 351 over the week (CFTC via ByKaranteli).
• ETH hedge funds: net short -3.699 contracts (CFTC via ByKaranteli; confirmed by AlphaScala).

What this means to me: short-covering is continuing and deepening — ByKaranteli notes this is the sixth consecutive week hedge funds have added to their long positions. But two caveats are important. First, these CME shorts are thought to be, in part, the futures leg of the ETF basis trade, rather than simply a bet on prices falling. Second, these are positions as of Tuesday, Nov 3, before the crash on Thursday, Nov 5 — so they don’t yet capture funds’ reaction to the crash to around $75.945. Large speculators (Legacy category) were actually net long +2.230 contracts but cut 490 over the week — a mixed picture, not a one-way trend.

What I’m watching next: the next COT report (positions as of Nov 10, released Friday) — whether short-covering continues after the crash, and whether asset managers stop trimming their longs.

What do you think: are these shrinking shorts a sign that big funds are starting to believe, or just the closing of basis trades?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#COT #DataPasar $BTC

US buyers have been paying less for BTC than the global price for 63 consecutive days.

Key figures:
• Coinbase premium at −0.149% on Nov 7 (ByKaranteli, 07:40 UTC) — the 63rd consecutive day BTC was cheaper on Coinbase than on global exchanges.
• 7-day average: −0.157% — the latest reading is nearly in line with its norm, not an outlier.
• Daily run (TokenPost, Nov 5): −0.20% (Oct 31), −0.16% (Nov 1), −0.18% (Nov 2), −0.15% (Nov 3), −0.09% (Nov 4) — all negative.
• Coinbase Prime volume on Nov 4: 13,202.62 BTC, up from 6,305.39 BTC the previous day.

What this means to me: US spot demand is still weak — buyers on major US venues are consistently bidding below the global price, in line with ETFs seeing $1.28 billion in outflows over a week, while BTC itself is flat around $75,950. But one important caveat: according to Alex Thorn (Galaxy), this discount may also be distorted by Binance withdrawal restrictions after the hack — so it isn’t a pure reflection of US demand.

What I’m watching next: whether the premium turns positive — that would be the first signal of US demand returning.

Do you think this 63-day discount is more a reflection of weak US demand, or of post-hack Binance distortions?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#Coinbase #DataPasar $BTC