I've been eyeing CRM for most of the day. Itโs up 2.389% in the last 24 hours. At first glance, the numbers seem flat, but considering the funding rate is at zero and the open interest is under 1800, it gets a bit interesting. At a price point of 170.58, the perpetual contracts linked to US stocks show a funding rate stuck at 0.00000000%, and neither side wants to cough up cash. This kind of situation is pretty rare in the recent tradfi perp landscape, where rates usually follow the sentiment. Now, itโs completely frozen.
Why is it frozen? Letโs break down the open interest. OI is only 1786.93, and the volume is just around 186,000, making the market as light as a feather. I checked the concentration of the contracts, and it seems like the top market makers have a high percentage of the orders, but since there hasnโt been any new big volume, it shows that the big bucks havenโt truly entered the game to gamble on direction. My take is, this isnโt just indifference; everyoneโs waiting for something. Is CRM going to be a laggard in this round of the trump narrative? Other stocks in the sector have already seen a short-term play, but this one is always a step behind due to its thin liquidity. A similar setup appeared a few weeks ago when the funding rate briefly went negative, and shorts got squeezed hard, only to be pushed up by a wave of buying, but the OI was much higher then. This time, itโs clearly lower volume. Zero volume with a zero funding rate either signals the eve of a trend change or that no one is playing.
So, my stance is pretty clear: Iโm keeping a light position and observing, waiting for a real breakout to push higher. Iโve set my trigger at 172.5. If it holds above that and the OI expands to over 2500, Iโll take that as a right-side signal to add to my position, targeting around 179, which is a dense area of previous highs. If it drops below 167.8, which is this weekโs low, Iโll cut my losses without hesitation. The marketโs buzzing that the trump narrative is fading, and that CRM, being a follower, is out of the game, but I donโt think thatโs the case. Just because no oneโs watching, the rates are flat, and the market is small, it could easily get pumped up. The contrarian play lies here, but the prerequisite is that volume has to come in; any rally without volume is just a scam, and Iโve seen enough of that.
Iโm no stranger to getting caught in these scenarios. A few months back in a similar tradfi perp, also with a zero funding rate waiting for direction, I jumped in early, only to get trapped by a false breakout right at my cost line, and it took me a whole two weeks to finally get out in a messy way.
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#BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDโM
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