Bakkt’s Q3 headline says “profit,” but once you break it down, it’s all accounting magic.
Net income was $14.3 million, including $26.8 million in non-cash gains from warrant valuations. Take that out, and the core business was genuinely in the red, with adjusted EBITDA of -$11.8 million. Revenue was $149.2 million, down 62.9% year over year, blamed on lower crypto trading volume.
The most outrageous part is the target. Q3 trading volume totaled $147.9 million, and the first three quarters combined came to $557.9 million, yet the full-year target is still $3 billion. That means Q4 needs to deliver $2.442 billion—more than 16 times Q3. In this market, with trading volume shrinking all the way, you’re telling me it’ll jump 16-fold in one quarter? And they’ve casually set a $6 billion target for the first half of 2027, too.
These targets aren’t set for the business; they’re set for the stock price. If you really believe them, don’t forget to come back and check the numbers on the day the Q4 results come out.
#Bakkt #earnings