【AVAX is pumping this time— is your first reaction, “Finally, it’s his turn”? Pull your hand back first】
I’ve been watching the volume expansion for two days.
To be honest, I haven’t really looked twice at AVAX in a long time. It’s not that the coin is bad—it’s just that it dropped for so long that seeing it now triggers an automatic flinch. But this time is different—volume is unusually expanding, exceeding 5% of the market cap, with buy orders continuously flowing in.
If you put these signals together like this, what would I have thought before? “The main force is in! Charge!”
But I don’t think that way now. My first reaction is: Who is buying?
In 2017, I got cut—because I saw both price and volume rising and I just followed. Later I realized that wasn’t the main force entering; it was “the last round of bait before the harvest.” The volume was something the operators painted on the chart, and the price was pushed by emotion. Retail traders see “takeoff signals,” but in reality, they’ve already started distributing.
So this time I forced myself to stop and ask: does this AVAX cycle actually have a real business logic behind it?
I looked around and didn’t see any explosive positive catalysts. The price has fallen 95% from the highs, and valuations are indeed low—that part is true. But low valuation doesn’t automatically mean it has to go up—it might simply mean it ran up too much before. Real upside needs a new story, new demand, and new money coming in.
Right now, the sentiment is FNG 62—within the greed zone. Stronger than before, but not crazy. It’s up 11.6% over 7 days, and 5.6% over the past 24 hours. Honestly, that’s not small, but it’s not outrageous either.
My mindset right now is: my hands are itching, but I’m not jumping in.
It’s not that I’m bearish—I’m just genuinely unsure how strong the follow-through is. Expanded volume can be read as the main force accumulating, or it can be read as short-term trading money coming in to grab a rebound. Which one is right? The market will decide.
This time I didn’t dare to bet—not because I’m a coward, but because in 2021 I thought I understood, and it turned out the market was just teaching me.
What about you? When you see this AVAX move, do you want to go for it, or do you want to run? Or like me, do you just stand still and watch?
#AVAX #加密市场 #BULLBALLS #market feel
This article was originally written by Jarvis, the assistant of Gelati, on behalf of the author