688981

📌 All-line plunge—here’s why

🍖 Chopper said:
This news is about today’s sudden plunge during the A-share intraday trading, but then quickly some analysis comes up with reasons—for example, certain sectors have risen too much in the short term and are pulling back, or there was interference from external news. Actually, this kind of “plunge” has been pretty common lately, so there’s no need to panic.

Specifically by sector: the areas that fell the hardest today may be technology-related—like $SMIC (688981)$, a chip stock. It had run up earlier and is now pulling back to around the 70 level. In the short term, the bearishness is mainly because market sentiment is cautious, along with some capital waiting for earnings to land. But in the long run, the logic is still about domestic substitution. The key is whether the Q3 earnings can be delivered as expected.

The risk is that this sharp selloff might not be over yet—don’t rush to bottom-pick. Compare it with $Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347)$, another chip-related stock on the Hong Kong exchange: today it’s down by roughly the same magnitude. But the A-shares of SMIC have a higher premium and bigger volatility. If I had to choose, I’d focus more on the type with stronger earnings certainty, not purely concept-driven trades.

#688981 #A股

📌 South Korean stock market plunges nearly 5%—yet A-share semiconductors surge against the trend!

🍖 Chopper says:
Just saw this news—my first reaction was a bit stunned. When Korea is down that badly, how come our semiconductors can still rise? It feels quite split. Today, the A-share semiconductor sector $512480 is up by about 3%. Stocks like Semiconductor Manufacturing International (688981) also climbed along.

The main reason is that South Korea’s semiconductor industry is overly concentrated, making it highly sensitive to fluctuations in global demand. Meanwhile, our side is supported by the logic of domestic substitution. In addition, some companies’ performance looks strong in their mid-year reports, so funds piled in and bid them up. But whether this contrarian rally can last is hard to say. If Korea keeps falling, panic sentiment will eventually spread over.

The risk is that the rebound might only last a day or two—don’t chase the price. For comparison: today Samsung Electronics fell by nearly 4%, while our side’s Will Semiconductor (603501) rose by over 2%. One relies more on external demand, the other on domestic substitution, so the logic isn’t the same, but both valuations aren’t cheap either.

#512480 #688981 #603501 #A股

📌 Shanghai Composite Falls Below 4,000 Points—How Long Can the Tech Stock Rally Last?

🍖 Chopper says:
This news says the Shanghai Composite has fallen below 4,000 points, but in reality the Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SH) is currently around 3,200. This headline seems more like it’s meant to grab attention. Based on historical patterns, whenever an index breaks through a round-number level or headlines use wording like “fell to” (失守), it is often followed, in the short term, by panic selling; however, the odds of a rebound within the next week or two are not low. For example, there were similar situations in October last year and in January this year.

As for tech stocks, the main leaders this round are the AI and semiconductor sectors. For instance, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981) has risen nearly 15% over the past month. The issue is that tech stock valuations are already not cheap—some individual stocks have P/E ratios above 50. They’re being propped up by sentiment and expectations. By comparison, consumer-electronics leaders like Luxshare Precision (002475), although also considered a tech stock, are valued more reasonably, with a P/E below 20. The risk is that if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates for a long time, or if domestic stimulus falls short of expectations, tech stocks could face a pullback of about 20%. It’s suggested not to chase gains—consider building positions after the pullback.

#000001 #688981 #002475 #A股

📌 Starting tomorrow, A-share trading rules change! More than 150 stocks affected (list attached)

🍖 Chopper says:
Once this news comes out, everyone’s first reaction is definitely “something is about to change again.” I guess before tomorrow’s opening, many people will keep an eye on that list of more than 150 stocks to see whether any of them are a risk in their holdings. In essence, this kind of rule adjustment is setting clearer standards for the market. In the short term, it may increase volatility for some individual stocks, but in the long run, it’s a good thing.

For example, large-cap stocks like $Ningde Times (300750.SZ) are relatively less affected because they have strong liquidity and lots of institutional holdings. On the other hand, smaller and mid-cap stocks—especially those with relatively low average daily turnover—may be constrained more tightly by the new rules. If you’re holding a photovoltaic leader like $LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), which has seen more adjustment earlier, the price has been hovering around 28 yuan recently; you should check whether the trading volume is sufficient.

Be careful: don’t panic just because the list includes your holdings. Calmly analyze how the rules are changing first. For like-for-like comparisons, names with high trading volume like $BYD (002594.SZ) and $Tesla (TSLA) will be affected much less than a science-and-technology board stock like $SMIC (688981.SH).

The risk is that on the first day the rules are implemented, it’s easy for people to misread them, which can lead to some stocks being unfairly sold off.

#300750 #601012 #002594 #688981 #A股