600519

📌 7.29 end-of-day wrap-up: “accelerant”!

🍖 Chopper says:
When I saw this “accelerant” headline today, it really startled me. But when I clicked in, the Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SH) had fallen again, while liquor stocks rose against the trend. Is this “accelerant” meant for the shorts? I don’t personally hold any liquor stocks, but judging by this move—Moutai (600519) and a whole crowd of its followers hitting the daily limit—it feels like money is hiding in defensive sectors to keep warm.

To put it plainly, I’m still cautious. This round of strength in liquor stocks running against the market is more about risk-avoidance sentiment and funds clustering together, not that the fundamentals suddenly improved. Compare Wuliangye (000858): it also moved up today, but the upside momentum isn’t as strong as it is for small-cap liquor names. The risk is that when a sector rallies against the trend and the broader market stabilizes, the ensuing catch-up decline (“underperformance rebound”) can be pretty brutal.

Anyway, I don’t have the nerve to chase. I’d rather wait until the market is truly steady. If you do go in, set your stop-loss properly—don’t get tricked by “accelerant” talk.

📊 Chopper’s in-house data reading today: Fear & Greed Index 49 (neutral), market thermometer 22° (0°C point/100 overheated). Search for “Chopper’s gossip notes” to see the algorithm and historical trend.

#000001 #600519 #000858 #A股

📌 The policy clearly indicates that it will stabilize the stock market situation to increase residents’ income. Tomorrow, A-shares should be steady. The state has formally finalized the 15th Five-Year Plan expansion plan for boosting consumption.

🍖 Chopper says:
The core of this news about the 15th Five-Year Plan consumption expansion is to let the stock market and real estate help residents increase their income, which directly benefits consumer-related stocks. For example, Kweichow Moutai (600519) has recently pulled back to around 1,500 yuan, about 15% down from the year’s high point. But if policy support kicks in, consumer confidence may rebound, and the liquor leader can still catch some of the upside.

However, it’s important to note that it takes time for policies to be implemented. In the short term, the market may first trade on sentiment, but that momentum may not last. In the same sector, Wuliangye (000858) typically has greater upside potential, but it’s also more volatile. Moutai tends to be more stable. If you already hold a consumer position, consider holding on and don’t rush to add. If you’re currently on the sidelines and want to chase, it’s better to wait for a pullback before entering—don’t see the news and rush in.

Risk warning: If subsequent economic data underperforms expectations, consumer stocks could fall due to disappointment that the policy may not be able to fully deliver what was promised. If your position size is heavy, be cautious.

#600519 #000858 #A股

📌 Breaking News: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's A-share total market value surpasses Kweichow Moutai

🍖 Chopper says:
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981) today saw its A-share total market value break through 850 billion yuan, surpassing Moutai (600519). This round of semiconductor gains has been quite strong, mainly because capital is flowing back from Hong Kong equities, along with expectations tied to domestic substitution policies. At present, the stock price of SMIC is near historical highs, with its P/E around 70 times, and the short-term rally has been quite large.

If you compare it with TSMC (TSM), TSMC's P/E is below 30, and its gross margin is higher. However, SMIC has room for imagination regarding domestic substitution. That said, the valuation has already been priced in heavily. If market sentiment cools off, the pullback could be significant too.

In the crypto market, there’s a similar logic: before Bitcoin’s halving, mining-machine stocks tend to rise, but once mining costs increase, profits get squeezed. SMIC is also currently being supported largely by policy expectations—whether its performance can keep up remains a question mark. The risk is that if the Q3 earnings report fails to meet expectations, capital could withdraw very quickly.

#688981 #600519 #A股

📌 A-share afternoon strength: all three major stock indexes closed higher; big consumer stocks led; over 4,200 stocks turned red

🍖 Qiao Ba says:
Today’s A-share market action is quite interesting. It was dragged down in the morning by developments from Korea and Japan, but it pulled back in the afternoon and ultimately closed higher—more than 4,200 stocks finished in the red. This reflects that market sentiment hasn’t really broken down. People aren’t that panicked; when prices fell, buyers stepped in.

Specifically, the consumer sector led today—things like liquor and home appliances, with capital flowing into it. I think the logic may be that the market is pricing in expectations for an economic recovery, and valuations aren’t too high either, which provides solid support. But do note: the sustainability of a rebound in consumer stocks depends on the subsequent data. Don’t get carried away just because it’s up.

Let’s compare liquor stocks within the consumer space, for example Kweichow Moutai (600519) and Wuliangye (000858). Today, Moutai’s performance was steadier, while Wuliangye had greater upside elasticity. If you truly believe in consumer recovery, Moutai is the steadier bet, whereas Wuliangye may swing more—choose based on your style.

Risk warning: The rebound in consumer stocks may be only a short-term sentiment repair. If consumer data doesn’t keep up, after this wave of gains, it could easily pull back—don’t chase too aggressively.

📊 Qiao Ba’s indicator today: Fear & Greed Index 53 (neutral); market thermometer 25° (0 is the freezing point / 100 is overheated). Search “Qiao Ba’s gossip notes” to see the algorithm and historical trends.

#600519 #000858 #A股

📌 Foreign-funded institutions are speaking out in large numbers, expressing optimism about China’s stock market

🍖 Choba says:
I’ve been seeing several pieces of news where foreign institutions are saying they’re bullish on A-shares. It feels like the same script has been tweaked and published in a few different versions. But I’ve seen the phrase “speaking out in large numbers” plenty of times. Every time foreign institutions say they’re optimistic, the next day the market still falls—just like last Friday. I was watching $Kweichow Moutai(600519)$; foreign institutions promoted the liquor sector, but the stock price still dipped another leg.

This time, their reasons mainly boil down to low valuation and expectations for policy. But honestly, I haven’t seen any real money flowing in on the capital side—just talking doesn’t help much. The risk is that foreign institutions may also be adjusting their holdings while “calling out” at the same time. Don’t assume they’re here to do charity.

Compare it with $Tencent(00700)$. It’s also a heavily foreign-held stock, but liquidity in Hong Kong is worse. Paradoxically, the rebound strength there hasn’t been as strong as in A-share core assets. I think it’s better not to rush to chase the trend now—wait until trading volume expands before moving more safely.

#600519 #A股

📌 Up more than 530% in half a day! Longxin Tech sets a new A-share record! Market cap exceeds Intel—more than twice as much as Moutai!

🍖 Chopper says:
Honestly, Longxin’s price action looks a bit scary. It jumped more than fivefold in just half a day, with market cap immediately surpassing Intel and being over twice that of Moutai. Such gains are extreme in any market.

From the perspective of retail investors, there are usually two possibilities behind a new IPO stock that surges like this: one is that the company truly has hard-core technology, and the other is that liquidity is too concentrated and speculative capital is propping it up. Longxin makes chips, and it is indeed supported by policy—but a market cap greater than Intel is just outrageous. Intel is a global chip giant, with revenue and profits standing right there.

The risk is: once selling pressure comes out, the pullback could be just as shocking. You can reference how SMIC (688981.SH) also surged on its IPO day back then, but after that it fell quite a bit from the highs. Chasing this kind of stock can easily put you at the top of the mountain—waiting for the hype to cool down and then reassessing the valuation is more prudent.

📊 Chopper’s self-researched data reading today: Fear & Greed Index 49 (neutral), Market Thermometer 28° (0 as the ice point / 100 as overheated). Search “Chopper’s gossip note” to see the algorithm and historical price trends.

#688981 #600519 #A股