资管舵
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资管舵
加密圈“K线甄嬛传观众”BTC涨了我秒变“多头贵妃”，跌了直接“冷宫待诏”，实盘操作主打“割肉是不可能的，嘴硬才是本命”，#币圈精神状态良好 #亏麻但嘴硬
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SanDisk climbed 13.6% in a single day—this kind of momentum is pretty fierce even among large-cap stocks. The catalyst is pretty clear: it pulled out a big move, signing a $93.9 billion long-term agreement, and laying out its AI storage strategy in detail.
The core logic is simple. The hotter AI gets, the more data centers have to expand; once they expand, they need to store more data. That’s what SanDisk is betting on. It expects the Flash market size to reach 1.2 zettabytes by 2026, and that data center storage demand will exceed edge devices to become the biggest share. Translated into plain language: in the future, the money spent on storing data will be much larger than the money spent on end-side devices.
Does this matter to people working on crypto? Yes. For those running nodes, L2s, and ZK proofs, the foundation is always compute and storage. AI and crypto are competing for the same batch of infrastructure resources. When storage chips get more expensive and supply is tight, data center costs rise, and that increase eventually filters through to the prices of compute rental.
Also pay attention to a signal: Kioxia is up nearly 9%, and SK hynix is also up more than 6%. The whole storage sector is moving. The market is repricing the entire AI storage track, and focusing only on SanDisk isn’t enough.
A single-day gain of 13% surely includes some overextension. Whether to jump in is up to you to weigh. But this line is worth watching—every step of the AI infrastructure that sees cost increases will ultimately show up in on-chain costs.
The core logic is simple. The hotter AI gets, the more data centers have to expand; once they expand, they need to store more data. That’s what SanDisk is betting on. It expects the Flash market size to reach 1.2 zettabytes by 2026, and that data center storage demand will exceed edge devices to become the biggest share. Translated into plain language: in the future, the money spent on storing data will be much larger than the money spent on end-side devices.
Does this matter to people working on crypto? Yes. For those running nodes, L2s, and ZK proofs, the foundation is always compute and storage. AI and crypto are competing for the same batch of infrastructure resources. When storage chips get more expensive and supply is tight, data center costs rise, and that increase eventually filters through to the prices of compute rental.
Also pay attention to a signal: Kioxia is up nearly 9%, and SK hynix is also up more than 6%. The whole storage sector is moving. The market is repricing the entire AI storage track, and focusing only on SanDisk isn’t enough.
A single-day gain of 13% surely includes some overextension. Whether to jump in is up to you to weigh. But this line is worth watching—every step of the AI infrastructure that sees cost increases will ultimately show up in on-chain costs.
GLD moved from around 200-and-something up to over 500, then slid back to 398. Drawing this line is pretty thrilling.
Now the daily chart is down more than 1.5%—it looks scary, but when you open the fund-flow below, the monthly net inflow is still positive at 3.19 billion. What does that mean? Big money hasn’t left; instead, it’s still absorbing during the pullback.
That dashed line on the right with the arrow pointing up isn’t drawn arbitrarily. In this leg, GLD has retraced by roughly 20% from the high. The last time it was at this level was during Q4 last year. Back then, the people who entered later caught the strong up-move that came in the early part of the year.
Crypto traders often overlook gold, thinking it moves too slowly. But there’s a pattern worth noting: whenever gold undergoes a major pullback into an area where moving averages are densely stacked, the risk assets usually don’t perform too badly in the following few months. The opposite also holds—if gold can’t hold here and starts accelerating lower, then positions in cash and stablecoins need to be increased.
At this point, don’t try to guess the top or the bottom—just watch two things. First, whether the fund flows can keep maintaining net inflows. Second, whether the psychological level at 400 can hold. If it holds, it becomes a consolidation relay. If it doesn’t, then it’ll likely probe the platform around 360.
In your current holdings, what percentage is allocated to gold-related exposure?
Now the daily chart is down more than 1.5%—it looks scary, but when you open the fund-flow below, the monthly net inflow is still positive at 3.19 billion. What does that mean? Big money hasn’t left; instead, it’s still absorbing during the pullback.
That dashed line on the right with the arrow pointing up isn’t drawn arbitrarily. In this leg, GLD has retraced by roughly 20% from the high. The last time it was at this level was during Q4 last year. Back then, the people who entered later caught the strong up-move that came in the early part of the year.
Crypto traders often overlook gold, thinking it moves too slowly. But there’s a pattern worth noting: whenever gold undergoes a major pullback into an area where moving averages are densely stacked, the risk assets usually don’t perform too badly in the following few months. The opposite also holds—if gold can’t hold here and starts accelerating lower, then positions in cash and stablecoins need to be increased.
At this point, don’t try to guess the top or the bottom—just watch two things. First, whether the fund flows can keep maintaining net inflows. Second, whether the psychological level at 400 can hold. If it holds, it becomes a consolidation relay. If it doesn’t, then it’ll likely probe the platform around 360.
In your current holdings, what percentage is allocated to gold-related exposure?
Someone ranked assets using the size of chess pieces. Bitcoin is the king, gold is the queen, stocks are the bishop, real estate is the knight, other cryptocurrencies are the rooks, fiat currency is the smallest piece—a pawn.
The chart looks exaggerated, but the logic holds. Over the past decade or more, among assets that can withstand inflation, cross borders, and not be controlled by any single government, BTC has indeed been the toughest. Not because it’s perfect, but because decentralization—this is something other assets can’t replicate.
Of course, even the king is only as strong as the pieces that support it on the board. Going all-in on a single position isn’t a strategy; it’s gambling. But if you ask who the core of this game is, the chart’s answer is very clear.
The chart looks exaggerated, but the logic holds. Over the past decade or more, among assets that can withstand inflation, cross borders, and not be controlled by any single government, BTC has indeed been the toughest. Not because it’s perfect, but because decentralization—this is something other assets can’t replicate.
Of course, even the king is only as strong as the pieces that support it on the board. Going all-in on a single position isn’t a strategy; it’s gambling. But if you ask who the core of this game is, the chart’s answer is very clear.
The S&P just hit another historic high—it looks pretty lively. But there’s one number that doesn’t quite feel right: the S&P’s market value has already surged to 69.7 trillion US dollars, roughly equivalent to several times the annual output of the entire US economy. The index is rising, but the companies propping it up are no longer the same as real jobs, factories, and income.
This kind of thing is common in trading. When prices run ahead of value, it’s lively on the surface—but you have to see what’s really underneath. The same applies to crypto: when the total market cap keeps climbing, don’t just watch the number floating around—check whether liquidity has kept up and whether there’s truly underlying demand. “When the tide goes out, you find out who’s been swimming naked”—an old line, but it’s always true. What do you think about this current wave?
This kind of thing is common in trading. When prices run ahead of value, it’s lively on the surface—but you have to see what’s really underneath. The same applies to crypto: when the total market cap keeps climbing, don’t just watch the number floating around—check whether liquidity has kept up and whether there’s truly underlying demand. “When the tide goes out, you find out who’s been swimming naked”—an old line, but it’s always true. What do you think about this current wave?
Someone saw you make money—so you said, “Just luck.” If you hear that kind of thing too often, you’ll just laugh. As for luck: if you stare at it, it never comes. The day it arrives is the day you’ve already made every mistake you were supposed to make and pulled every all-nighter you were supposed to pull. Outsiders only see that one moment—they can’t see the thousands of times before it. After all these years trading, being told that I rely on luck is basically erasing every bit of tuition I paid. Whether making money is luck or skill—you all know the answer in your hearts.
For people who trade, a day’s mood can ride several rounds of a roller coaster.
Before the market opens, you feel like you’re solid—then as soon as it opens, a sudden sharp drop teaches you a lesson.
The most tormenting time is when the market is moving sideways; you stare at the candlestick chart with your eyes, and your mind is already running eight hundred miles ahead.
When the close comes, you tally it up—reds and greens are about the same, and after being busy all day, you’ve basically worked for the commission and fees.
This job is about who can stay calm first, not who reacts the fastest.
What color are your accounts today?
Before the market opens, you feel like you’re solid—then as soon as it opens, a sudden sharp drop teaches you a lesson.
The most tormenting time is when the market is moving sideways; you stare at the candlestick chart with your eyes, and your mind is already running eight hundred miles ahead.
When the close comes, you tally it up—reds and greens are about the same, and after being busy all day, you’ve basically worked for the commission and fees.
This job is about who can stay calm first, not who reacts the fastest.
What color are your accounts today?
I got this eclipse card footage where the shot hits right on the hillside and—boom—I was struck.
The blogger said that in this lifetime, being able to capture a scene like this means no regrets even if you die.
After doing trading for these years, I’m increasingly convinced of one thing: the kind of resonance in the market that comes only once every few years is the same idea as this shot.
On the technical side, on the funding side, on the sentiment side—most of the time they each move on their own, but somehow at a certain moment they all line up perfectly.
At that moment, you don’t need to shout—just quietly get on board.
Opportunities come every year, but there aren’t many people willing to stay in cash and wait for that one instant.
The blogger said that in this lifetime, being able to capture a scene like this means no regrets even if you die.
After doing trading for these years, I’m increasingly convinced of one thing: the kind of resonance in the market that comes only once every few years is the same idea as this shot.
On the technical side, on the funding side, on the sentiment side—most of the time they each move on their own, but somehow at a certain moment they all line up perfectly.
At that moment, you don’t need to shout—just quietly get on board.
Opportunities come every year, but there aren’t many people willing to stay in cash and wait for that one instant.
April 2021 = 63,000 USD
November 2021 = 63,000 USD
March 2024 = 63,000 USD
June 2024 = 63,000 USD
October 2024 = 63,000 USD
February 2026 = 63,000 USD
June 2026 = 63,000 USD
August 2026 = 63,000 USD
November 2021 = 63,000 USD
March 2024 = 63,000 USD
June 2024 = 63,000 USD
October 2024 = 63,000 USD
February 2026 = 63,000 USD
June 2026 = 63,000 USD
August 2026 = 63,000 USD
Today, the Korean KOSPI formed a big bullish candle, rising 3.55% and pushing straight up to 6812 points. Trading volume came in at 166 trillion KRW, which is noticeably higher than yesterday.
On the heatmap, the red blocks occupy most of the screen—flip through the gainers by percentage. In the hardware sector, Samsung Electro-Mechanics jumped 11.6%, SK Hynix Semiconductor also rose 6.9%, and LG Innotek gained 4.6%. Samsung Electronics itself climbed 3.1%, and as a heavyweight stock, it made a meaningful contribution.
Future Asset in the capital markets rose 4.1%, while in the banking space, Shinhan Financial and KB both gained more than 1%. The auto sector—Hyundai and Kia—was also moving along; NAVER rose 2.6%. Scanning the entire chart, there are relatively few green blocks, indicating a broad-based up day.
This strength in the Korean market mainly followed the rebound in global risk appetite. Foreign investors were net buyers of more than 600 billion KRW yesterday. It had been lagging behind the Japanese market and the TSMC supply-chain for a while, but today it’s essentially made up for it with a catch-up move.
On the heatmap, the red blocks occupy most of the screen—flip through the gainers by percentage. In the hardware sector, Samsung Electro-Mechanics jumped 11.6%, SK Hynix Semiconductor also rose 6.9%, and LG Innotek gained 4.6%. Samsung Electronics itself climbed 3.1%, and as a heavyweight stock, it made a meaningful contribution.
Future Asset in the capital markets rose 4.1%, while in the banking space, Shinhan Financial and KB both gained more than 1%. The auto sector—Hyundai and Kia—was also moving along; NAVER rose 2.6%. Scanning the entire chart, there are relatively few green blocks, indicating a broad-based up day.
This strength in the Korean market mainly followed the rebound in global risk appetite. Foreign investors were net buyers of more than 600 billion KRW yesterday. It had been lagging behind the Japanese market and the TSMC supply-chain for a while, but today it’s essentially made up for it with a catch-up move.
Last night, the Ethereum Foundation dropped a major bombshell: core researcher Justin Drake directly announced he is abandoning the Poseidon hash algorithm he has used for seven years, switching to traditional hashes like SHA2 and BLAKE2.
Why this matters. Poseidon has been a representative zk-SNARK-friendly hash since 2019, and many projects build circuits based on it. Now Ethereum is changing course.
The key breakthrough is that they found a way to make conventional hashes efficiently provable inside SNARKs. Previously, running traditional hashes in SNARKs had too much overhead and was essentially unusable. Drake’s team achieved million-scale proofs per second by natively aligning “bitwise field” operations, reducing the overhead by about 100x. He calls it “science-fiction-level cryptography.”
The roadmap also comes with a timeline. In 2027, leanVM reaches production-grade deployment; in 2028, it covers the consensus layer, execution layer, and data processing layer. No need to wait years for Poseidon’s further cryptographic analysis.
He also mentioned an interesting point: AI’s recent ability in cryptanalysis has been targeting and pressuring GPK-based schemes like HAWK and same-source schemes like SQLsign, while hash-based foundations instead look like potential winners in the era of post-quantum signatures for blockchains. The open-source community is also moving fast—SNARK.fast has already reached 1.8 million BLAKE3 proofs per second.
What this means for developers. If you’re building a product based on Poseidon, you should start thinking about a migration path. Ethereum’s own technical choices often signal the direction the entire ecosystem will follow.
Why this matters. Poseidon has been a representative zk-SNARK-friendly hash since 2019, and many projects build circuits based on it. Now Ethereum is changing course.
The key breakthrough is that they found a way to make conventional hashes efficiently provable inside SNARKs. Previously, running traditional hashes in SNARKs had too much overhead and was essentially unusable. Drake’s team achieved million-scale proofs per second by natively aligning “bitwise field” operations, reducing the overhead by about 100x. He calls it “science-fiction-level cryptography.”
The roadmap also comes with a timeline. In 2027, leanVM reaches production-grade deployment; in 2028, it covers the consensus layer, execution layer, and data processing layer. No need to wait years for Poseidon’s further cryptographic analysis.
He also mentioned an interesting point: AI’s recent ability in cryptanalysis has been targeting and pressuring GPK-based schemes like HAWK and same-source schemes like SQLsign, while hash-based foundations instead look like potential winners in the era of post-quantum signatures for blockchains. The open-source community is also moving fast—SNARK.fast has already reached 1.8 million BLAKE3 proofs per second.
What this means for developers. If you’re building a product based on Poseidon, you should start thinking about a migration path. Ethereum’s own technical choices often signal the direction the entire ecosystem will follow.
This heatmap for today’s Japanese stocks looks so satisfying—green everywhere.
The top gainers are particularly interesting. Kioxia (KIOXIA) jumped 5.75%. This newly listed storage-chip name has plenty of room to move. Advantest (ADVANTEST) rose 5.84%, and semiconductor equipment has always been a top choice for capital in Japan’s market. Panasonic and Fanuc (FANUC) also gained over 5%. In Japan’s market, the industrial automation theme has consistently traded at a premium.
Sony +2.41%, Mitsubishi +2.74%, and Suzuki +3.12%—even heavyweight index stocks are moving along. There’s almost no red on the entire chart. These “all-green across the board” days don’t happen very often in Japanese equities.
Earlier, many people thought the rally in Japanese stocks was over and that a pullback was coming. Instead, it made new highs again. The export tailwind from corporate governance reforms in Japan plus the weaker yen is still ongoing, and foreign inflows haven’t stopped either.
The top gainers are particularly interesting. Kioxia (KIOXIA) jumped 5.75%. This newly listed storage-chip name has plenty of room to move. Advantest (ADVANTEST) rose 5.84%, and semiconductor equipment has always been a top choice for capital in Japan’s market. Panasonic and Fanuc (FANUC) also gained over 5%. In Japan’s market, the industrial automation theme has consistently traded at a premium.
Sony +2.41%, Mitsubishi +2.74%, and Suzuki +3.12%—even heavyweight index stocks are moving along. There’s almost no red on the entire chart. These “all-green across the board” days don’t happen very often in Japanese equities.
Earlier, many people thought the rally in Japanese stocks was over and that a pullback was coming. Instead, it made new highs again. The export tailwind from corporate governance reforms in Japan plus the weaker yen is still ongoing, and foreign inflows haven’t stopped either.
SONYUS+2.92%
TSMB+0.36%
$DUSK is Dusk Network’s native token, operating on a blockchain specifically designed for financial assets. Its uses are very practical: it pays for network Gas, participates in consensus staking, and enables governance voting—functions that token holders can genuinely put to use.
The confidential smart contract built by @Dusk is at the core of this chain. After institutions move securities on-chain, transaction details are hidden with zero-knowledge proofs; only authorized parties can see them. This satisfies regulatory reporting requirements while preserving commercial privacy.
This approach of building both compliance and privacy into the protocol layer isn’t common in the RWA track. As tokenization of regulated assets accelerates, demand for $DUSK will increasingly be tied to the network’s real-world usage. #dusk
The confidential smart contract built by @Dusk is at the core of this chain. After institutions move securities on-chain, transaction details are hidden with zero-knowledge proofs; only authorized parties can see them. This satisfies regulatory reporting requirements while preserving commercial privacy.
This approach of building both compliance and privacy into the protocol layer isn’t common in the RWA track. As tokenization of regulated assets accelerates, demand for $DUSK will increasingly be tied to the network’s real-world usage. #dusk
S&P 500 Integer-Level Milestone Table, compiled by Charlie Bilello; the data was refreshed as of yesterday.
The 7,800 mark was broken on August 13. It took 79 days to move up from 7,700 to 7,800, a gain of 1.3%. Looking further back, it took 92 days to go from 7,700 to 7,600, and another 92 days from 7,600 to 7,500—the pace was fairly even.
But the deeper you look, the more interesting it gets. The move from 5,000 to 5,100 took only 15 days (February 2024). And from 5,500 to 5,600 took just 28 days. By contrast, in the early period, it took 117 days to go from 1,400 to 1,500 (1999), and 80 days to go from 1,500 to 1,600 (the surge after the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020).
The most straightforward takeaway from this table is that the rate of breaking through integer milestones has clearly accelerated in recent years. It took only 9 days to move from 4,000 to 4,100, and 19 days for 4,300 to 4,400. Of course, there are slower stretches too: 4,500 to 4,600 took 65 days, and 4,900 to 5,000 took 757 days (about two-plus years)—that period was likely the grind-down during the 2022 bear market.
For ordinary investors, this kind of table is satisfying to look at, but not very useful for making trades. You can’t precisely buy and sell at every integer level. Its value is more about helping you gauge the market’s temperature. And now that even 7,800 has been surpassed, it suggests this bull market run has gone quite a long way.
Data source: YCharts; statistics through August 13.
The 7,800 mark was broken on August 13. It took 79 days to move up from 7,700 to 7,800, a gain of 1.3%. Looking further back, it took 92 days to go from 7,700 to 7,600, and another 92 days from 7,600 to 7,500—the pace was fairly even.
But the deeper you look, the more interesting it gets. The move from 5,000 to 5,100 took only 15 days (February 2024). And from 5,500 to 5,600 took just 28 days. By contrast, in the early period, it took 117 days to go from 1,400 to 1,500 (1999), and 80 days to go from 1,500 to 1,600 (the surge after the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020).
The most straightforward takeaway from this table is that the rate of breaking through integer milestones has clearly accelerated in recent years. It took only 9 days to move from 4,000 to 4,100, and 19 days for 4,300 to 4,400. Of course, there are slower stretches too: 4,500 to 4,600 took 65 days, and 4,900 to 5,000 took 757 days (about two-plus years)—that period was likely the grind-down during the 2022 bear market.
For ordinary investors, this kind of table is satisfying to look at, but not very useful for making trades. You can’t precisely buy and sell at every integer level. Its value is more about helping you gauge the market’s temperature. And now that even 7,800 has been surpassed, it suggests this bull market run has gone quite a long way.
Data source: YCharts; statistics through August 13.
The Fed is set to make another big move tonight.
At 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, after the U.S. stock market closes, the new balance sheet will be released, and the whole market is waiting for this number.
If the scale is below 6.70 trillion, that means a 25-basis-point rate hike. If it lands in the 6.70 to 6.80 trillion range, the policy will basically stay put. Only if it’s above 6.80 trillion can the market expect a rate cut.
These macro variables directly affect liquidity in the crypto market. When the balance sheet expands, there’s more money in the market, and risk assets are more likely to move higher. Conversely, when the balance sheet shrinks, liquidity tightens.
Once tonight’s data comes out, it’s worth watching how tomorrow’s market moves. Do you think it’ll expand the balance sheet or shrink it? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$APR #美联储 #加密市场
At 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, after the U.S. stock market closes, the new balance sheet will be released, and the whole market is waiting for this number.
If the scale is below 6.70 trillion, that means a 25-basis-point rate hike. If it lands in the 6.70 to 6.80 trillion range, the policy will basically stay put. Only if it’s above 6.80 trillion can the market expect a rate cut.
These macro variables directly affect liquidity in the crypto market. When the balance sheet expands, there’s more money in the market, and risk assets are more likely to move higher. Conversely, when the balance sheet shrinks, liquidity tightens.
Once tonight’s data comes out, it’s worth watching how tomorrow’s market moves. Do you think it’ll expand the balance sheet or shrink it? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$APR #美联储 #加密市场
In 2035, buying 1 BTC will probably look something like this.
The Fed’s money-printing clerk is working overtime to get paid—one stack isn’t enough, they need several.
Of course, this is a meme and exaggerated. But if you look back at the trajectory—at a few cents in 2010, a few hundred dollars in 2015, and $60,000 in June 2021—then in 2035, buying a BTC might indeed require hauling a few boxes of cash.
The core question is simple: do you have it in your hands. By then, people who already hold it won’t need to move cash; they can just transfer it.
If you don’t hold any, then this image is your future.
The Fed’s money-printing clerk is working overtime to get paid—one stack isn’t enough, they need several.
Of course, this is a meme and exaggerated. But if you look back at the trajectory—at a few cents in 2010, a few hundred dollars in 2015, and $60,000 in June 2021—then in 2035, buying a BTC might indeed require hauling a few boxes of cash.
The core question is simple: do you have it in your hands. By then, people who already hold it won’t need to move cash; they can just transfer it.
If you don’t hold any, then this image is your future.
BTC rainbow chart, weekly lines from 2016 to the present.
The core logic of this chart is to layer the price using logarithmic-scale Fibonacci extension bands. Each colored line corresponds to a specific h value—the larger the number, the more expensive the price level.
Let’s look at a few key turning points. At the end of 2018, price dropped to the red zone at h=2.382, when BTC was over three thousand dollars. In March 2020, during the pandemic crash, it was smashed down to h=2.618, around a bit over four thousand. Looking back, both of these spots were basically “money on the table.”
In the 2021 bull run, price surged to h=4.20–4.24, topping out around the high-50,000s. In the 2022 bear market, it fell back to the green zone at h=3.618—again, a major buy zone.
Currently, the price is between h=4.582 and h=4.618, on the upper side of the blue band. It’s not cheap, but it hasn’t reached the crazy zone above h=5 yet.
The biggest value of this chart is that it helps you locate which “temperature band” you’re in. h below 3 means you can feel comfortable holding/accumulating; h above 4—start paying attention to position sizing; and h above 5 is when you should be thinking about whether to trim rather than add.
The core logic of this chart is to layer the price using logarithmic-scale Fibonacci extension bands. Each colored line corresponds to a specific h value—the larger the number, the more expensive the price level.
Let’s look at a few key turning points. At the end of 2018, price dropped to the red zone at h=2.382, when BTC was over three thousand dollars. In March 2020, during the pandemic crash, it was smashed down to h=2.618, around a bit over four thousand. Looking back, both of these spots were basically “money on the table.”
In the 2021 bull run, price surged to h=4.20–4.24, topping out around the high-50,000s. In the 2022 bear market, it fell back to the green zone at h=3.618—again, a major buy zone.
Currently, the price is between h=4.582 and h=4.618, on the upper side of the blue band. It’s not cheap, but it hasn’t reached the crazy zone above h=5 yet.
The biggest value of this chart is that it helps you locate which “temperature band” you’re in. h below 3 means you can feel comfortable holding/accumulating; h above 4—start paying attention to position sizing; and h above 5 is when you should be thinking about whether to trim rather than add.
The S&P 500 chart stretches from 1949 to today—about 80 years of K-lines.
The most intuitive feeling is that those pullbacks in the middle where you think the sky is falling, when placed on a long-term cycle, are not even a dip. The 2000 internet bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic crash, and the 2022 rate-hike bear market—each big bearish candle back then felt utterly hopeless, but looking back, they were all buy opportunities.
This recent rally has been especially dramatic: it surged straight from over 6,000 to nearly 8,000. The slope is clearly steeper than in any earlier period.
But precisely because the slope is so steep, you should be alert. Historically, after every time there has been a near-vertical surge like this, it either goes sideways and digests for a long time, or it undergoes a deep pullback. Rising too fast, by itself, is already drawing down future upside.
The strategy of holding U.S. stocks long term has been repeatedly validated over the past 80 years. The real issue is at what point you enter and how heavily you size your position.
The most intuitive feeling is that those pullbacks in the middle where you think the sky is falling, when placed on a long-term cycle, are not even a dip. The 2000 internet bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic crash, and the 2022 rate-hike bear market—each big bearish candle back then felt utterly hopeless, but looking back, they were all buy opportunities.
This recent rally has been especially dramatic: it surged straight from over 6,000 to nearly 8,000. The slope is clearly steeper than in any earlier period.
But precisely because the slope is so steep, you should be alert. Historically, after every time there has been a near-vertical surge like this, it either goes sideways and digests for a long time, or it undergoes a deep pullback. Rising too fast, by itself, is already drawing down future upside.
The strategy of holding U.S. stocks long term has been repeatedly validated over the past 80 years. The real issue is at what point you enter and how heavily you size your position.
Bitcoin's lowest price each year
2012 - $4
2013 - $13
2014 - $300
2015 - $190
2016 - $360
2017 - $780
2018 - $3200
2019 - $3400
2020 - $3800
2021 - $28700
2022 - $15500
2023 - $16600
2024 - $39400
2025 - $76300
2026 - $58000 $APR
2012 - $4
2013 - $13
2014 - $300
2015 - $190
2016 - $360
2017 - $780
2018 - $3200
2019 - $3400
2020 - $3800
2021 - $28700
2022 - $15500
2023 - $16600
2024 - $39400
2025 - $76300
2026 - $58000 $APR
Verified
Bing Bian’s Q2 holdings exposure is out, and this move is truly bold.
First, the big picture: Apple has been fully sold off, Tesla has been sold off, and the triple-leveraged Nasdaq 100 ETF (TQQQ) has also been cleared. Putting these three actions together makes it very clear that he’s reducing his risk appetite.
Where did the money go? Google is still the largest position at 22%, but it’s also being cut. Intel has newly entered and jumped straight to become the second-largest holding at 15.6%—this position change is very conspicuous. SanDisk, AMD, Marvell Technology, ARM, and Broadcom are all new entries.
His semiconductor positions are being built up heavily, while Nvidia is actually being reduced. He seems to favor parts of the semiconductor supply chain that haven’t been priced in sufficiently yet—yet Nvidia is the one being cut.
TSMC has also been trimmed a bit, but it’s still in the top ten. Amazon and Meta have basically been nearly cleared out.
Overall, the shift is from consumer electronics + leveraged ETFs toward the pure semiconductor industrial chain. The style is more about hardcore manufacturing than platform economics. The 13F filings lag by one quarter, so what we’re seeing is the June-end snapshot.
First, the big picture: Apple has been fully sold off, Tesla has been sold off, and the triple-leveraged Nasdaq 100 ETF (TQQQ) has also been cleared. Putting these three actions together makes it very clear that he’s reducing his risk appetite.
Where did the money go? Google is still the largest position at 22%, but it’s also being cut. Intel has newly entered and jumped straight to become the second-largest holding at 15.6%—this position change is very conspicuous. SanDisk, AMD, Marvell Technology, ARM, and Broadcom are all new entries.
His semiconductor positions are being built up heavily, while Nvidia is actually being reduced. He seems to favor parts of the semiconductor supply chain that haven’t been priced in sufficiently yet—yet Nvidia is the one being cut.
TSMC has also been trimmed a bit, but it’s still in the top ten. Amazon and Meta have basically been nearly cleared out.
Overall, the shift is from consumer electronics + leveraged ETFs toward the pure semiconductor industrial chain. The style is more about hardcore manufacturing than platform economics. The 13F filings lag by one quarter, so what we’re seeing is the June-end snapshot.
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