GLD moved from around 200-and-something up to over 500, then slid back to 398. Drawing this line is pretty thrilling.
Now the daily chart is down more than 1.5%—it looks scary, but when you open the fund-flow below, the monthly net inflow is still positive at 3.19 billion. What does that mean? Big money hasn’t left; instead, it’s still absorbing during the pullback.
That dashed line on the right with the arrow pointing up isn’t drawn arbitrarily. In this leg, GLD has retraced by roughly 20% from the high. The last time it was at this level was during Q4 last year. Back then, the people who entered later caught the strong up-move that came in the early part of the year.
Crypto traders often overlook gold, thinking it moves too slowly. But there’s a pattern worth noting: whenever gold undergoes a major pullback into an area where moving averages are densely stacked, the risk assets usually don’t perform too badly in the following few months. The opposite also holds—if gold can’t hold here and starts accelerating lower, then positions in cash and stablecoins need to be increased.
At this point, don’t try to guess the top or the bottom—just watch two things. First, whether the fund flows can keep maintaining net inflows. Second, whether the psychological level at 400 can hold. If it holds, it becomes a consolidation relay. If it doesn’t, then it’ll likely probe the platform around 360.
In your current holdings, what percentage is allocated to gold-related exposure?
Now the daily chart is down more than 1.5%—it looks scary, but when you open the fund-flow below, the monthly net inflow is still positive at 3.19 billion. What does that mean? Big money hasn’t left; instead, it’s still absorbing during the pullback.
That dashed line on the right with the arrow pointing up isn’t drawn arbitrarily. In this leg, GLD has retraced by roughly 20% from the high. The last time it was at this level was during Q4 last year. Back then, the people who entered later caught the strong up-move that came in the early part of the year.
Crypto traders often overlook gold, thinking it moves too slowly. But there’s a pattern worth noting: whenever gold undergoes a major pullback into an area where moving averages are densely stacked, the risk assets usually don’t perform too badly in the following few months. The opposite also holds—if gold can’t hold here and starts accelerating lower, then positions in cash and stablecoins need to be increased.
At this point, don’t try to guess the top or the bottom—just watch two things. First, whether the fund flows can keep maintaining net inflows. Second, whether the psychological level at 400 can hold. If it holds, it becomes a consolidation relay. If it doesn’t, then it’ll likely probe the platform around 360.
In your current holdings, what percentage is allocated to gold-related exposure?