The S&P 500 chart stretches from 1949 to today—about 80 years of K-lines.
The most intuitive feeling is that those pullbacks in the middle where you think the sky is falling, when placed on a long-term cycle, are not even a dip. The 2000 internet bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic crash, and the 2022 rate-hike bear market—each big bearish candle back then felt utterly hopeless, but looking back, they were all buy opportunities.
This recent rally has been especially dramatic: it surged straight from over 6,000 to nearly 8,000. The slope is clearly steeper than in any earlier period.
But precisely because the slope is so steep, you should be alert. Historically, after every time there has been a near-vertical surge like this, it either goes sideways and digests for a long time, or it undergoes a deep pullback. Rising too fast, by itself, is already drawing down future upside.
The strategy of holding U.S. stocks long term has been repeatedly validated over the past 80 years. The real issue is at what point you enter and how heavily you size your position.
The most intuitive feeling is that those pullbacks in the middle where you think the sky is falling, when placed on a long-term cycle, are not even a dip. The 2000 internet bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic crash, and the 2022 rate-hike bear market—each big bearish candle back then felt utterly hopeless, but looking back, they were all buy opportunities.
This recent rally has been especially dramatic: it surged straight from over 6,000 to nearly 8,000. The slope is clearly steeper than in any earlier period.
But precisely because the slope is so steep, you should be alert. Historically, after every time there has been a near-vertical surge like this, it either goes sideways and digests for a long time, or it undergoes a deep pullback. Rising too fast, by itself, is already drawing down future upside.
The strategy of holding U.S. stocks long term has been repeatedly validated over the past 80 years. The real issue is at what point you enter and how heavily you size your position.