#analysis #bitcoin 📊
$BTC Express Analysis: Seller Exhaustion and Potential for a Local Rebound
Bitcoin's local drop from the peaks of \$63,000 to the marks below \$59,000 made the market nervous, but fresh on-chain and derivative metrics indicate important structural changes. We understand what is happening behind the scenes of the market right now.
📊 Key Observations:
💥 Who pushed the glass? The cumulative volume delta (CVD) chart clearly shows that the main driver of the fall was a large-scale market sell-off (market orders) on the Binance exchange (delta fell to almost -\$1billion). Other platforms behaved much more passively.
🇺🇸 Sales geography: The greatest pressure was felt during the American (US) and European (EU) sessions. It was there that the worst cumulative profitability was recorded. Instead, the Asian region (APAC) is trying to stabilize the price and buy up the dips.
📉 Cooling of derivatives: Despite the price drop, the total open interest (Open Interest) remained in the region of $15\16\billion. This indicates that bears were actively opening shorts ahead of time. The Funding Rate fell to neutral values (near zero), completely removing the bullish overheating.
🧼 Liquidations subsided: The largest cascade of forced long closures (over -$100 million) took place back on June 25–26. Currently, the liquidation schedule is "calm", which signals the end of the first wave of panic and exhaustion of sellers.
⚠️ Conclusion and scenario
The price found strong support in the \$58,500\$59,000 zone. Since spot CVD is oversold and the market is full of shorts, there is a high probability of a local short squeeze.
🚀 Primary target for the rebound: return and consolidation above \$61,000\$61,500. However, for a full-fledged reversal towards \$63,000, we need to see a halt to aggressive market selling from the US and a reversal of the cumulative delta upwards.