野原小新

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I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

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How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
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August 18, $ETH market analysis

The ETH order book is very simple.

Support below: 1862–1870. As long as it doesn’t break, look for a rebound.

This rebound is indicated on the 1-day chart.

The breakout is above the 2-day resistance: 1920–1941.

ETH’s 4-hour chart has already turned to the upside, while the 15-minute chart shows divergence. Therefore, for intraday trading, look for a pullback to the 1-hour support: 1895.

If it breaks down below the support: 1885, then 1855.

Personally, I will continue holding my ETH spot.
Yesterday, at around 1870, I added to my coin-margined position. When the rebound reached around 1890, I reduced some. I’ll keep the core position. If it pulls back today, I will consider buying back the reduced amount.

August 18th $BTC market analysis

BTC broke through yesterday’s key support at 63,500.

From the chart, the market on smaller timeframes is strengthening; today you can consider going long on pullbacks.

Support below: 63,620 63,215 62,700

Resistance above is still plentiful: 64,700 65,300 66,400

Today’s chart is much better than yesterday at least.

The key is how the 15-minute higher level digests/absorbs this move.

The 15-minute timeframe is a non-bearish (bullish) level, but it’s already in a high zone.

A pullback is needed for confirmation; the key supports are: 64,147 63,879

Right now there is support below and pressure above; intraday still follows the range-bound “up-and-down on the lower side” rhythm.

Personally, I’m still holding my spot position and won’t change it. I added longs at 62,700 below, but I’ve already reduced some position size.

Keep the core position unchanged. If there’s a pullback today, I’ll consider rebuilding the reduced portion depending on how things look.

Storage chain is drawing the most attention today. SK hynix closed near the highs, up 4.16%; Micron and SanDisk also rose, but Microsoft fell by more than 1 point, and Nvidia barely moved. This isn’t the AI sector rising—it’s money buying into the narrower line of rising memory prices.

SanDisk surged to 1772 during the session, but has since pulled back to 1705; that late-chasing jump has given back about half. Seeing three of them rising together, there’s also some hot air inside.

Even colder is the crypto side. Coinbase is down 1.04%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is down 0.80%. The Nasdaq is still up for the moment, but these two are sliding. BTC is still doing the same slow grind. AI money is squeezing into a very narrow opening—so narrow that it seems to have little to do with crypto.

I honestly don’t get it: even U.S. stock AI platform shares can’t move on their own—so why would money spill over into BTC?

Binance futures launches a bunch of TradFi perpetuals, using USDT as margin. My first reaction wasn’t to look at which instruments they are, but to feel that crypto exchanges are starting to admit there’s no “story” left on their side.

BTC has been hovering around 63,324, while ETH is only 1,893. The spot market isn’t moving, retail traders aren’t making moves, and the exchange has to find something to keep you trading here. With no crypto market momentum, they bring stocks, gold, and FX in, offer 7x24 leverage, and people holding USDT don’t need to leave the market—they can keep gambling.

This is more direct than high-yield wealth management. Wealth management locks you in so you can’t go; TradFi perpetuals give you a reason to keep trading, and they still collect fees.

I’m just curious: when the money in the crypto market can directly do traditional finance inside the exchange, is BTC itself still important? Right now it feels like a prop.

August 17 ETH Market Analysis

“Second Bing” filled a long order at 1870. Around 1895, the position has already been partially reduced; the core position is being held and not moved.
ETH’s key support is at: 1862-1855-1806
Key resistance is at: 1920 2023

From the chart, ETH is stronger than BTC.
The key is the daily line: whether it can cross above after-hours (a golden cross), meaning 1860 must not close below on a body basis.
Right now it’s moving low on the hourly chart. If today can close above 1855, the market will show strength.

Personally, I’m still holding spot and haven’t moved, because my cost basis was built up from below; I also did some T trades in the middle.
So we’re still far from my entry cost.

In this pullback, I’ve been continuously taking longs relative to the “base” (比本位), doing several rounds of T.
Currently, it’s still in the positioning/building stage relative to the “base.”

From the chart, the pullback hasn’t confirmed the end yet—it needs time.

If it breaks below 1862, pay attention to 1785 below; if both break, I will consider reducing the position and watching. $ETH

BTC market analysis on August 17, #BTC

I added a little to my long position at 62700~~

Today, the key is how the 4-hour chart closes. Key resistance above: around 63500.
Key support below: 62700, 61800, 60900.

From the 1-day chart, the overall market is relatively weak, and this pullback hasn’t ended yet.
So: for intraday short-term trading, you can take a rebound; when it reaches the level, do a reverse trade (short).

Personally, I’m still holding spot positions and not changing anything. I’ll look for a chance to build a long position.
Compared with keeping doing short-term swings against my own basis, I’ll still hold the core position.

There are still 2 and a half hours until the 4-hour close. If it can hold steady at 63200, the market may have a chance to push up toward the 635-64000 area, $BTC

Paul Tudor Jones’ fund sold a Bitcoin ETF for a year, and now it’s back. The headline looks like smart money returning, but when you dig into the options, things don’t quite add up.

Call options were cut by 85.2%, leaving just 148,000 shares; put options were down by only 1.4%, with 715,000 shares still on hand. The put position is roughly five times the call. If this were truly a shift to a bullish stance, they would have removed all the upside leverage—yet the downside protection remains. This looks more like setting a bottom position while locking in risk.

Earnings report data is already lagging, and even around BTC near 62,840, there hasn’t been much confirmation. Don’t rush to put him on the long-bull list yet; what I’m seeing more is that he “still hasn’t dared to go net long naked.”

UBS adds a bullish options “lever” on Bitcoin ETF exposure of up to 24x, cutting put option exposure by 53%. Simply holding IBIT only adds 12%. Big banks aren’t buying coins—they’re buying direction.

The meaning of this kind of structure is very clear: when it rises, it amplifies returns; when it falls, the maximum loss is limited to the premium. Cutting the puts in half suggests it’s not really meant to hedge downside—it’s because they’re reluctant to spend money on downside protection.

But with BTC currently below $63,000, the market tape hasn’t moved much. Put option buying doesn’t directly turn into spot buying. Whether market makers go to the market to hedge against it is another story.

What I’m more curious about is when these options expire and how the strike prices are set. That’s where it could genuinely force the trading desk to take action. Seeing “24x” now and assuming it means smart money has already entered is too early.

Binance sets up an 8% annualized yield for U flexible products, and VIPs can still get an additional exclusive 5%, with a cap of 500,000 U. In the current environment, that yield really isn’t low.

But my first reaction wasn’t “go deposit.” It was: why is the exchange pushing this now? There’s no clear main storyline in the crypto market—BTC has been churning around the 63,000 level with low volatility. Retail traders don’t dare to jump in. And once money comes in, people don’t know what to do with it. In this situation, offering you 8% U annualized yield is essentially locking those hesitant funds into a wealth-management pool so you don’t exit.

For traders, it looks more like a signal: the platform believes there won’t be major wealth-generating effects in the short term, so it uses high-yield stablecoin products to keep users around. Once there really is a行情, the money that was locked up will be released to become fuel.

As for whether 8% can be sustained, just look and see—at this kind of interest rate, it can be adjusted at any time.

Kalshi raised 750 million, valuing it at 40 billion. In May it was only 22 billion; three months later it nearly doubled. Sequoia and Wellington have both come in too. If you put these numbers in crypto terms, they could rank in the top ten for FDV. But since it doesn’t issue tokens—it's purely equity—there’s basically no reaction on the trading screen.

What’s worth pondering is where the money actually went. Prediction markets and the crypto crowd betting on news are really the same group of people. Kalshi is compliant, supports leverage, and can also trade macro events. After getting the funds, it will most likely subsidize market making, and undercut fees to poach users. On the crypto side, BTC is churning around 63,000, LINK is up 5.6%, UNI is down 5.3%, and there’s no clear main theme. Once this compliant casino smooths out the user experience, high-volatility stories might not be able to pull people back the way they used to.

I’m a bit unsure—maybe the thing that steals crypto liquidity in the future won’t be regulation, but this kind of more convenient compliant casino instead. Let’s wait and see.

Kraken’s parent company, Payward, reported adjusted revenue of $508 million in the second quarter, up 17% year over year. Deposit accounts surged to 6.6 million, up 42%. However, trading volume fell to 310 billion, down 13%.

The biggest misalignment is right in front of you: accounts are up by nearly half, yet trading is down.

What does that mean? Retail hasn’t left—it’s just that once they came in, they don’t know what to do. There’s no story in the market that gives them a reason to take action. Registration, adding funds, and waiting can all happen at the same time, but the final step didn’t follow through. For traders, these new accounts are potential fuel—but not yet actual trading.

And since Kraken’s revenue can still grow, it shows that the way it makes money has already decoupled from trading volume. Staking, wealth management, and institutional services are what drive revenue. The less an exchange depends on trading, the colder it tends to be toward retail market activity—it won’t randomly push coins just to inflate volume.

So don’t treat an exchange’s revenue growth as a direct bull-market signal. User numbers are genuinely higher, but so is the fact that they’re not trading. The market is stuck in a rather dull spot right now: more people want to enter, but no one is willing to fire the first shot.

Everyone is waiting for rate cuts, but the commodity market has already hammered those assumptions into the ground: over the past year, heating oil is up 92%, silver 72%, gasoline 52%, and copper 47%. Such extreme gains don’t look like the eve of a recession—they look like a repricing on the cost side. Meanwhile, the market is still betting that the Federal Reserve will pivot toward easing; that’s a rate-cut expectation that lags the curve—black humor.

Look closely at the structure: this isn’t a broad-based commodity bull market. Cocoa and lean hogs are still falling, which suggests global demand hasn’t overheated. What’s really surging is energy and industrial metals—more like supply constraints plus restocking. This is the most troublesome kind of inflation: rate cuts won’t cure it, and may even add fuel for upstream producers. The looser the central bank, the more companies dare to replenish inventories, making copper and oil harder to fall. The result is a feedback loop: the more the market bets on rate cuts, the higher commodities rise, and the harder it becomes for rate-cut expectations to come true.

On the crypto side, there are signs of unease. BTC is now at $62,792, down 1.45% over the past 24 hours, and ETH is also stuck near $1,874. It’s not treating BTC as an inflation hedge; rather, it’s treating it like a risk asset as liquidity expectations tighten—pulling back first. What to watch for is this: if commodities rally again and rate-cut expectations get knocked down, risk assets will be repriced first. At this level, don’t comfort yourself with the idea of “stagflation being good for BTC.”

Don’t rush to say, “Crypto winter is here.” The current situation isn’t that no one is telling stories—it’s that capital isn’t willing to price most stories. The market has shifted from “buying narratives” to “buying only certainty.”

I’ll break it down into five points.

First, liquidity is shrinking. In Q2, the total crypto market cap kept falling. Spot trading volume clearly declined, and even the total supply of stablecoins contracted. Stablecoins are this market’s most honest “water faucet.” If they aren’t rising, it means no incremental capital has come in. Without new money, rotation is just insiders cannibalizing each other’s positions, and it can’t spark a big run.

Second, macro conditions are still weighing on risk appetite. Rate expectations, geopolitics, oil prices—everything keeps rattling around. Capital would rather sit in cash, gold, and large-cap U.S. stocks than touch high-volatility small coins first. Digital-asset products have seen net outflows for weeks in a row—that’s capital voting with its feet.

Third, institutional money only recognizes BTC and ETH. ETFs can hold up major assets, but that doesn’t mean it’s “alt season” just because an ETF exists. The market is choosing projects, not buying an entire sector blindly.

Fourth, there are too many old narratives and too little realization. AI, RWA, L2, DeFi, MEME—everyone is talking about them. But many tokens still carry unlock schedules and selling pressure, and real revenue is close to zero. Capital is only willing to underwrite a small set of assets that actually have income, buybacks, user growth, and clear event-driven catalysts.

Fifth, trading heat is being diverted. U.S. stocks, AI, precious metals, prediction markets, tokenized U.S. stocks—everyone is competing for the same batch of high-risk capital. Within crypto, there isn’t a single super-mainline narrative strong enough to lift the entire market.

So the conclusion isn’t “a stagnant dead pond.” It’s a “selective market”: projects with real cash flow or strong catalysts will move, while most coins just trade sideways with BTC and then go nowhere.

In one sentence: it’s not that crypto investors aren’t here—it’s that the market has changed from “buying narratives” to “buying only certainty.” When trading now, first ask how much “certainty” the target has, then talk about what story it tells.

The invalidation conditions are also straightforward: when the total stablecoin supply starts rising again, when alts relative to BTC resume outperforming, and when new narratives can lift an entire sector rather than just sending individual coins into random frenzy—if any one of these appears, you’ll need to reassess the logic of “only buying certainty.” Until then, don’t add extra drama to yourself with “the bull market is coming.”

sndk People have been asking about it a lot lately #SNDK

The rebound height is 1580—I've mentioned it last night too. Even though I didn't dare to chase too much, I really didn't expect it to spike up to this point so fast.

They say that the US stock market’s movement in a day basically covers a year of BTC’s行情—that’s a very big truth!

1581 is a relatively key resistance level. If we push up from here, the next target is 1680.

From the order book, here we can only look for a small pullback—still within the bullish trend. The rebound may not necessarily be over yet.

1581 is also worth gambling on a short position. But judging from the chart, we need to wait for a larger timeframe to form a top-range “short” setup; that short is probably the one that will be smooth. $SNDKB