Kraken’s parent company, Payward, reported adjusted revenue of $508 million in the second quarter, up 17% year over year. Deposit accounts surged to 6.6 million, up 42%. However, trading volume fell to 310 billion, down 13%.
The biggest misalignment is right in front of you: accounts are up by nearly half, yet trading is down.
What does that mean? Retail hasn’t left—it’s just that once they came in, they don’t know what to do. There’s no story in the market that gives them a reason to take action. Registration, adding funds, and waiting can all happen at the same time, but the final step didn’t follow through. For traders, these new accounts are potential fuel—but not yet actual trading.
And since Kraken’s revenue can still grow, it shows that the way it makes money has already decoupled from trading volume. Staking, wealth management, and institutional services are what drive revenue. The less an exchange depends on trading, the colder it tends to be toward retail market activity—it won’t randomly push coins just to inflate volume.
So don’t treat an exchange’s revenue growth as a direct bull-market signal. User numbers are genuinely higher, but so is the fact that they’re not trading. The market is stuck in a rather dull spot right now: more people want to enter, but no one is willing to fire the first shot.
The biggest misalignment is right in front of you: accounts are up by nearly half, yet trading is down.
What does that mean? Retail hasn’t left—it’s just that once they came in, they don’t know what to do. There’s no story in the market that gives them a reason to take action. Registration, adding funds, and waiting can all happen at the same time, but the final step didn’t follow through. For traders, these new accounts are potential fuel—but not yet actual trading.
And since Kraken’s revenue can still grow, it shows that the way it makes money has already decoupled from trading volume. Staking, wealth management, and institutional services are what drive revenue. The less an exchange depends on trading, the colder it tends to be toward retail market activity—it won’t randomly push coins just to inflate volume.
So don’t treat an exchange’s revenue growth as a direct bull-market signal. User numbers are genuinely higher, but so is the fact that they’re not trading. The market is stuck in a rather dull spot right now: more people want to enter, but no one is willing to fire the first shot.