野原小新
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野原小新
Square Verified+🔸公众号: 小新服务小站 |🔸推特账号： @xing0082 专注技术分析/技术分享普及教学， 🎈手续费8折：MH999 邀请码。
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Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~
Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~
Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~
How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~
Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~
Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~
How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.
PINNED
#BTC Intraday Market Analysis~~~
Current resistance is around 65~~~
64500 65300 65700
Intraday: the rebound hasn’t ended yet~~~
But multi-level divergence + insufficient momentum~~~
Chasing longs isn’t recommended~~~You can wait for a pullback to test with a small position~~~
From a daily perspective, the overall bias is still bearish~~~
But there is a need for a rebound~~~
The recent pressure zone is around the 1D EMA52~~~i.e., 653-657
So~ trade plan:
Short around 653-657~~~watch the strength of the pullback~~~
If price doesn’t break below~~~and breaks above 657~~~then don’t short in the short term~~~the rebound could continue~~~
Support zones below: 625 618 60900
Look at a larger timeframe~~the weekly bottom divergence hasn’t been fully confirmed yet~~~
Resistance is at 64500
But if the daily resistance zone fails—if price keeps falling but can’t drop through~~~then the divergence may become confirmed~~~the upper rebound limit could reach around 805~~~
So~~~both shorts and longs~~~need to be adjusted according to the order book~~~
Never stubbornly hold on~~~
Once price breaks the trading range, the next move could likely turn into a short directional trend~~
Current resistance is around 65~~~
64500 65300 65700
Intraday: the rebound hasn’t ended yet~~~
But multi-level divergence + insufficient momentum~~~
Chasing longs isn’t recommended~~~You can wait for a pullback to test with a small position~~~
From a daily perspective, the overall bias is still bearish~~~
But there is a need for a rebound~~~
The recent pressure zone is around the 1D EMA52~~~i.e., 653-657
So~ trade plan:
Short around 653-657~~~watch the strength of the pullback~~~
If price doesn’t break below~~~and breaks above 657~~~then don’t short in the short term~~~the rebound could continue~~~
Support zones below: 625 618 60900
Look at a larger timeframe~~the weekly bottom divergence hasn’t been fully confirmed yet~~~
Resistance is at 64500
But if the daily resistance zone fails—if price keeps falling but can’t drop through~~~then the divergence may become confirmed~~~the upper rebound limit could reach around 805~~~
So~~~both shorts and longs~~~need to be adjusted according to the order book~~~
Never stubbornly hold on~~~
Once price breaks the trading range, the next move could likely turn into a short directional trend~~
·
--
🎙️ Still fluctuating~~~ Upper resistance zone 653-657~~~ Live trade analysis~~
End
02 h 35 m 36 s
620
0
People who wouldn’t sell BTC started selling—and the market isn’t panicking instead?
On Saturday, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC ($216 million) to pay preferred share dividends—its largest coin sale in history. Saylor went from “never sell” to “selling for dividends.” The market should have panicked—so why is $63K barely moving?
1. The $63K level has been tested three times: the jobs report slashed expectations (57,000 vs. 115,000) → a sharp selloff in U.S. stocks → Strategy dumped $200 million. Three layers of bearish news didn’t break through, suggesting the buy-side below is thicker than people think. $65K is resistance, but the bears have fewer bullets left.
2. Grayscale said that Strategy selling BTC is not a bad thing. Previously, the market worried about “when will he sell”—that was a hanging sword. Now it’s clear on the record, so uncertainty actually decreases. Strategically, his long-term BTC holdings haven’t changed: 843,775 BTC are still there, and the company also has $2.55 billion in cash.
3. Technically, the 144-day EMA is flattening, and the $62K–$65K range is tightening. This pattern usually precedes a directional move soon. Bullish, but not in a hurry. Wait for a break above $65K for confirmation, or for a pullback to $62K to hold before acting. Direction matters more than timing.
A market that got hit three rounds and still didn’t break—either the bears aren’t aggressive enough, or there really are people below ready to pick up.
$BTC
On Saturday, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC ($216 million) to pay preferred share dividends—its largest coin sale in history. Saylor went from “never sell” to “selling for dividends.” The market should have panicked—so why is $63K barely moving?
1. The $63K level has been tested three times: the jobs report slashed expectations (57,000 vs. 115,000) → a sharp selloff in U.S. stocks → Strategy dumped $200 million. Three layers of bearish news didn’t break through, suggesting the buy-side below is thicker than people think. $65K is resistance, but the bears have fewer bullets left.
2. Grayscale said that Strategy selling BTC is not a bad thing. Previously, the market worried about “when will he sell”—that was a hanging sword. Now it’s clear on the record, so uncertainty actually decreases. Strategically, his long-term BTC holdings haven’t changed: 843,775 BTC are still there, and the company also has $2.55 billion in cash.
3. Technically, the 144-day EMA is flattening, and the $62K–$65K range is tightening. This pattern usually precedes a directional move soon. Bullish, but not in a hurry. Wait for a break above $65K for confirmation, or for a pullback to $62K to hold before acting. Direction matters more than timing.
A market that got hit three rounds and still didn’t break—either the bears aren’t aggressive enough, or there really are people below ready to pick up.
$BTC
#LAB The front desk said they wanted to leave for a bit~~~~
The funding rate is too high~~~
Today I checked~~~ sure enough, it went down~~
The funding rate is too high~~~
Today I checked~~~ sure enough, it went down~~
Partly True
·
--
🎙️ Trump calls trades~~~the chart is rising again~~ 645 is reached~~~next up is 657~~
End
02 h 29 m 39 s
780
USDC/USDT
Market/Sell
Filled
0
$BTC $ETH $SOL
I took a quick look at the counterfeit “trending search” leaderboard—polarization is even more severe than I expected: YFI +45%, ANSEM +39%, but BONK is down 8%.
This kind of extreme split is a classic signal at the bottom of a bear market: there isn’t enough capital, so they can only pick and choose what to push. This isn’t really the “alt season” coming in—rather, certain project teams, taking advantage of a liquidity vacuum, have pulled up the sentiment by lifting a few specific names. Look at the volumes: YFI is only $77M, ANSEM $68M—trading volume simply can’t support a sustained move. But direction-wise, it’s not necessarily bad—if someone is willing to light a fire at the coldest time, it suggests the bottom really does have people starting to look for opportunities.
Compare that with HYPE, a top-10 alt that’s still moving sideways around $71. AVAX at $6.93 and UNI at $3.19 are also hovering near +1%. The broader market is waiting for direction, while the alts are waiting for the market to move first. Don’t rush to jump in—let the bullets fly for a bit.
I took a quick look at the counterfeit “trending search” leaderboard—polarization is even more severe than I expected: YFI +45%, ANSEM +39%, but BONK is down 8%.
This kind of extreme split is a classic signal at the bottom of a bear market: there isn’t enough capital, so they can only pick and choose what to push. This isn’t really the “alt season” coming in—rather, certain project teams, taking advantage of a liquidity vacuum, have pulled up the sentiment by lifting a few specific names. Look at the volumes: YFI is only $77M, ANSEM $68M—trading volume simply can’t support a sustained move. But direction-wise, it’s not necessarily bad—if someone is willing to light a fire at the coldest time, it suggests the bottom really does have people starting to look for opportunities.
Compare that with HYPE, a top-10 alt that’s still moving sideways around $71. AVAX at $6.93 and UNI at $3.19 are also hovering near +1%. The broader market is waiting for direction, while the alts are waiting for the market to move first. Don’t rush to jump in—let the bullets fly for a bit.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Claude Fable 5 is now charged based on usage—at this point in time, it’s rather delicate.
Anthropic began charging per-usage pricing a few weeks after releasing its most powerful model. In plain terms, the models are too expensive to keep burning money. Fable 5’s inference cost is more than double that of the previous generation; once the free trial period ends, the bill can make small teams gasp. If this happened half a year ago, people might still be arguing about “open source vs. closed source.” But now the market reaction is unusually quiet—because everyone knows that top-tier models are expensive, and they’ll only get more expensive.
Two layers of judgment: first, the AI industry is following the same old playbook as cloud services—burn money to win users first, then gradually reel them in. That’s what AWS did back then; who still dares to say cloud is cheap now? Second, this is actually good news for the decentralized crypto-AI track. As centralized AI gets more and more expensive and closed off, there’s real demand for decentralized inference and compute markets. It’s not saying it will take off immediately, but this narrative direction is correct.
Also, one more thing: the AI sector in the U.S. stock market has been cooling down recently, with capital moving from pure AI concepts to companies with actual revenue. Claude’s shift to paid service is a signal—the market isn’t willing to pay for people who can only tell stories.
Claude Fable 5 is now charged based on usage—at this point in time, it’s rather delicate.
Anthropic began charging per-usage pricing a few weeks after releasing its most powerful model. In plain terms, the models are too expensive to keep burning money. Fable 5’s inference cost is more than double that of the previous generation; once the free trial period ends, the bill can make small teams gasp. If this happened half a year ago, people might still be arguing about “open source vs. closed source.” But now the market reaction is unusually quiet—because everyone knows that top-tier models are expensive, and they’ll only get more expensive.
Two layers of judgment: first, the AI industry is following the same old playbook as cloud services—burn money to win users first, then gradually reel them in. That’s what AWS did back then; who still dares to say cloud is cheap now? Second, this is actually good news for the decentralized crypto-AI track. As centralized AI gets more and more expensive and closed off, there’s real demand for decentralized inference and compute markets. It’s not saying it will take off immediately, but this narrative direction is correct.
Also, one more thing: the AI sector in the U.S. stock market has been cooling down recently, with capital moving from pure AI concepts to companies with actual revenue. Claude’s shift to paid service is a signal—the market isn’t willing to pay for people who can only tell stories.
Verified
Gelonghui July 6｜Strategy Inc. sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin last week, marking the company’s first major step after recently announcing financing reforms. Previously, both Bitcoin and the company’s own share price had experienced a prolonged decline. This transaction represents the largest Bitcoin sale since the company began accumulating positions in 2020, and its third sale in history. In pre-market trading on Monday, Strategy’s share price fell by about 3% at one point, while Bitcoin dropped 1.3%. Meanwhile, a notice released on Monday said that Strategy recorded a $8.32 billion digital asset loss in the three months ended June 30.
Verified
#strategy Microlstrategy has started selling~~~ 3588 BTC
So this needle is what he released~~~
So this needle is what he released~~~
BSC’s on-chain activity over the past week has surpassed Solana.
Not just for a moment—ever since last week, it has been steadily pressing and beating it. DEX trading volume, daily active addresses, new token launches—BSC has overtaken across the board. That old chain, which everyone mocked last year as “only shitcoins and bagholders,” has suddenly come back to life.
This matters far more than it seems on the surface.
This year, Solana has eaten up too much of the L1 narrative—fast, cheap, lots of users, strong meme culture. But BSC’s recent comeback suggests one thing: on-chain liquidity has no loyalty. Whichever chain has the stronger wealth-creation effect, that’s where the money goes.
Go one layer deeper: BSC is backed by Binance—there’s exchange traffic inflow, market makers, and a Launchpad. When Solana’s meme fatigue starts to show—Pump.fun growth slows, there have been too many rug pulls, and retail investors get scared after being cut too many times—BSC’s “Shitcoin 2.0” just happens to catch this group of people.
That said, to be honest, it’s still hard for BSC to permanently replace Solana in the long run. Solana’s technical foundation, developer ecosystem, and institutional recognition are still there. But at least now, it’s no longer the only option. When a monopoly begins to crack, the story changes.
Not just for a moment—ever since last week, it has been steadily pressing and beating it. DEX trading volume, daily active addresses, new token launches—BSC has overtaken across the board. That old chain, which everyone mocked last year as “only shitcoins and bagholders,” has suddenly come back to life.
This matters far more than it seems on the surface.
This year, Solana has eaten up too much of the L1 narrative—fast, cheap, lots of users, strong meme culture. But BSC’s recent comeback suggests one thing: on-chain liquidity has no loyalty. Whichever chain has the stronger wealth-creation effect, that’s where the money goes.
Go one layer deeper: BSC is backed by Binance—there’s exchange traffic inflow, market makers, and a Launchpad. When Solana’s meme fatigue starts to show—Pump.fun growth slows, there have been too many rug pulls, and retail investors get scared after being cut too many times—BSC’s “Shitcoin 2.0” just happens to catch this group of people.
That said, to be honest, it’s still hard for BSC to permanently replace Solana in the long run. Solana’s technical foundation, developer ecosystem, and institutional recognition are still there. But at least now, it’s no longer the only option. When a monopoly begins to crack, the story changes.
BTC support moves up today: 63400 62200 61800
This wave is a rebound on the daily chart~~ resistance zone is: 65300-65700
Current 12-hour inflow~~~ but 642-645 is definitely resistance~~~
On the smaller timeframe there is a need for a pullback from the high area~~~
Don’t chase longs~~ we’re already at the pressure level~~
For short positions, watch for now~~ it doesn’t yet have clear conditions to drop directly~~~
The 4-hour chart has just turned bullish~~~
So if you want to short, be patient—wait until the chart confirms the move~~
Personally, I’ve placed a small short position in my head position~~ the original plan was short entry points at 63-64-65~~~
Now I only have the head position~~ wait until 52 and reassess~~
#BTC
This wave is a rebound on the daily chart~~ resistance zone is: 65300-65700
Current 12-hour inflow~~~ but 642-645 is definitely resistance~~~
On the smaller timeframe there is a need for a pullback from the high area~~~
Don’t chase longs~~ we’re already at the pressure level~~
For short positions, watch for now~~ it doesn’t yet have clear conditions to drop directly~~~
The 4-hour chart has just turned bullish~~~
So if you want to short, be patient—wait until the chart confirms the move~~
Personally, I’ve placed a small short position in my head position~~ the original plan was short entry points at 63-64-65~~~
Now I only have the head position~~ wait until 52 and reassess~~
#BTC
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🟠 Trending Search Coins · 07/06
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
① ANSEM -6%
The Black Bull, market cap rank #223
Current $0.3071, trading volume $56M
A short-term pullback, still on the trending list
---
② PENGU +2%
Pudgy Penguins, market cap rank #114
Current $0.006727, trading volume $40M
Mild upward move, rising market attention
---
③ LIT +12%
Lighter, market cap rank #94
Current $2.49, trading volume $74M
Strong breakout, funds in focus
---
④ VVV -1%
Venice Token, market cap rank #99
Current $11.84, trading volume $41M
Slight fluctuations, staying on the trending list
---
⑤ SLX -29%
Solstice, market cap rank #452
Current $0.2032, trading volume $99M
Significant drop—pay attention to risk
---
⑥ SUI -1%
Sui, market cap rank #31
Current $0.7496, trading volume $218M
Slight fluctuations, staying on the trending list
---
⑦ NEAR +1%
NEAR Protocol, market cap rank #36
Current $2.00, trading volume $154M
Mild upward move, rising market attention
---
⑧ DOT -0%
Polkadot, market cap rank #51
Current $0.8757, trading volume $61M
Slight fluctuations, staying on the trending list
---
⑨ HYPE +3%
Hyperliquid, market cap rank #10
Current $71.56, trading volume $313M
Mild upward move, rising market attention
---
⑩ EIGEN +2%
EigenCloud (prev. EigenLayer), market cap rank #185
Current $0.2368, trading volume $32M
Mild upward move, rising market attention
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟠 Trending Search Coins · 07/06
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
① ANSEM -6%
The Black Bull, market cap rank #223
Current $0.3071, trading volume $56M
A short-term pullback, still on the trending list
---
② PENGU +2%
Pudgy Penguins, market cap rank #114
Current $0.006727, trading volume $40M
Mild upward move, rising market attention
---
③ LIT +12%
Lighter, market cap rank #94
Current $2.49, trading volume $74M
Strong breakout, funds in focus
---
④ VVV -1%
Venice Token, market cap rank #99
Current $11.84, trading volume $41M
Slight fluctuations, staying on the trending list
---
⑤ SLX -29%
Solstice, market cap rank #452
Current $0.2032, trading volume $99M
Significant drop—pay attention to risk
---
⑥ SUI -1%
Sui, market cap rank #31
Current $0.7496, trading volume $218M
Slight fluctuations, staying on the trending list
---
⑦ NEAR +1%
NEAR Protocol, market cap rank #36
Current $2.00, trading volume $154M
Mild upward move, rising market attention
---
⑧ DOT -0%
Polkadot, market cap rank #51
Current $0.8757, trading volume $61M
Slight fluctuations, staying on the trending list
---
⑨ HYPE +3%
Hyperliquid, market cap rank #10
Current $71.56, trading volume $313M
Mild upward move, rising market attention
---
⑩ EIGEN +2%
EigenCloud (prev. EigenLayer), market cap rank #185
Current $0.2368, trading volume $32M
Mild upward move, rising market attention
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Bitcoin worth 63,000? Institutions and whales are going head-to-head.
Two completely contradictory things happened over the past two weeks: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered massive losses with a net outflow of $4 billion—the worst in history; but at the same time, whale wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC quietly accumulated 270,000 coins—worth $16.7 billion.
On one side, institutions are unloading. On the other, old money is picking up the supply. This is the exact opposite of the script at the end of 2024—back then, ETF net inflows pushed the price up every day, while whales were distributing. Now it’s flipped.
What’s even more interesting is the price action. After ETF sell pressure totaling $4 billion hit the market, Bitcoin didn’t collapse—instead it bounced from 61,000 to 63,400. Who absorbed all those sell orders? Look at the on-chain data—you’ll know it wasn’t retail traders.
That makes me think of a saying: during times of panic, ask who’s taking the other side. The retail traders call it “catching a falling knife”—but the whales call it “washing out positions.” Nobody knows what the sharks are seeing, but this scale of buying doesn’t really look like an impulsive moment.
Go one layer deeper: ETFs are the entry point for new money from both retail and institutions, while whales are the real hard players who survive multiple cycles. New money is running, old money is buying—who do you think is more likely the one targeting the other?
Two completely contradictory things happened over the past two weeks: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered massive losses with a net outflow of $4 billion—the worst in history; but at the same time, whale wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC quietly accumulated 270,000 coins—worth $16.7 billion.
On one side, institutions are unloading. On the other, old money is picking up the supply. This is the exact opposite of the script at the end of 2024—back then, ETF net inflows pushed the price up every day, while whales were distributing. Now it’s flipped.
What’s even more interesting is the price action. After ETF sell pressure totaling $4 billion hit the market, Bitcoin didn’t collapse—instead it bounced from 61,000 to 63,400. Who absorbed all those sell orders? Look at the on-chain data—you’ll know it wasn’t retail traders.
That makes me think of a saying: during times of panic, ask who’s taking the other side. The retail traders call it “catching a falling knife”—but the whales call it “washing out positions.” Nobody knows what the sharks are seeing, but this scale of buying doesn’t really look like an impulsive moment.
Go one layer deeper: ETFs are the entry point for new money from both retail and institutions, while whales are the real hard players who survive multiple cycles. New money is running, old money is buying—who do you think is more likely the one targeting the other?
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