野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~

How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

The Nasdaq is down more than 1 point; MSTR is up 20%; Coinbase is up 16%. The most important thing to pay attention to today isn’t that crypto is strong—it’s that it’s strong in a way that’s too isolated.

The money doesn’t look like it’s coming from outside the market. Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Micron, and SanDisk are all falling, while Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft are still rising—like capital is shifting within semiconductors, moving into the two crypto stocks that are most sensitive to policies. If this were a pure coin-price move, highly volatile miners like CLSK, MARA, and RIOT wouldn’t only be up by five or six points. My guess is that BTC didn’t move much; what’s rising is expectations around the SEC’s new rules and a shift in regulation.

So for anyone chasing the rally, think it through: what you’re buying now isn’t coins—it’s a story. The story may deliver a second wave; if it doesn’t, this 20% gain will become a trap laid for the next group of entrants. If the Nasdaq doesn’t turn back, these two won’t be the last to drop either.

Yesterday we were still talking about the three-layer logic behind 819. But today this address came out, and I feel like a layer was missed—possibly the very layer that should have been asked first.

A newly created address: first go long HYPE for profit-taking, then switch and go long ETH with 4x leverage. Entry average price is 1936. Now they’re holding 20,000 ETH long contracts, with an unrealized profit of over $6 million. This is what TradingBeats has monitored.

New address, HYPE first then ETH, and 4x leverage—stacked together like this, I can’t explain it with luck. Especially the move from doing HYPE first to then switching to ETH—timing is too precise, like they somehow knew the rhythm in advance.

I won’t guess who it is, and I won’t claim inside information. But this incident made me look back at that 819 line: some of that money isn’t chasing in based on the K-line—it was laid out in advance. My three-layer analysis is a script that ordinary players can see.

I won’t follow this address. But remember one thing: when they close their position, they won’t ring the bell.

Awesome — a guy who turned 88 dollars into over ten thousand dollars~~

Last night’s rebound: many people only look at the price. I saw two groups on-chain placing bets against each other.

On one side, a new address went long HYPE to take profit first, then turned around and went long ETH with 4x leverage—placing 20,000 ETH-long orders. The unrealized profit is over $6 million. The entry average price was 1936; they nailed it so precisely it doesn’t look like retail.

On the other side, a whale address, bc1qsy, took advantage of the rebound’s liquidity and sold 2,000 BTC again in the early morning—accumulating a total of 9,513 BTC sold within a month, cashing out $623.4 million.

That’s the most real snapshot of this rebound: some are running ahead with 4x leverage, while others are using the rebound to unload. In a squeeze-market, the more violently the price rises, the better the liquidity—making it easier for whales to distribute. The buy orders from short covering just happen to catch the whale’s sell orders.

So don’t just ask, “Can the rebound last?” Ask, “Has the $623.4 million of sell pressure been absorbed?” If it’s been absorbed, this rebound is just a wash. If it hasn’t, then whoever chases higher above 70,000 is the one finding the exit.

Yesterday's ETH market analysis~~~ What I'm doing is to catch this wave of daily chart rebound~~

But I didn't expect it to bounce all the way in one go, and it bounced like this

Still I sold too early

Last night’s rebound wasn’t driven by a single factor—it was three layers of things stacking on top of each other, and the beneficiaries of each layer are different.

First layer: positioning. Most directly—shorts were overcrowded. Over the past month, BTC churned below 70,000, grinding out a pile of short orders. Within just one hour last night, more than $1 billion was liquidated, the biggest liquidation wave since 2021. Forced to buy back and close, shorts became the buyers, pushing price up themselves—that’s a short squeeze, not fresh demand coming in.

Second layer: liquidity expectations. The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repo operations, with the repo scale for the 10-to-30-year bucket at least doubling. Long-end yields were pushed lower, and the pricing anchor for risk assets loosened. This rally wasn’t just crypto up—risk assets broadly moved higher.

Third layer: policy. Trump’s White House met with people from Coinbase, Kraken, and Blockchain.com. Meanwhile, the SEC has also proposed new rules for the issuance of crypto assets, creating exemptions for some projects. Regulatory expectations shifted from “tightening” to “friendlier.” That’s fundamentally important for the industry’s valuations.

Where the good news shows up—just look at the bullish performance ranking: Strategy rose nearly 12%—it holds about 840,000 BTC, with a pure leveraged exposure, so if the coin goes up, it has to go up even more; Circle rose 9.4%—a stablecoin issuer; with both a friendly regulatory backdrop and looser liquidity, it has double tailwinds; Coinbase rose 9%—platform revenue tends to track trading volume; even BitMine, which holds ETH, rose 9.7%.

But let’s pour some cold water on it: BTC broke above 70,000 intraday, then closed back near 69.4k. The hallmark of a short-squeeze move is speed—it doesn’t automatically mean a trend reversal. Among the three layers, the positioning layer is a one-off; only the liquidity expectations and policy layers can be sustained. Next, there are two confirmation points: whether the Treasury’s repo can truly keep the long end suppressed, and whether the SEC’s new rules can actually be implemented. If those are delivered, the rebound can get a second wave.

MicroStrategy stocks, the circle thing flew away~~~
Did BTC and ETH, didn’t do these two~~

Gold has reached 4442—up 1.54% over the past 24 hours, just barely missing 4445. The S&P is still climbing; the Nasdaq-100 is basically flat. The US market doesn’t look like it’s in a risk-off mood.

But MSTR is down 1.23%, Coinbase is down 0.14%, and RIOT, MARA, and CLSK are all slightly lower. For assets that also don’t “rely on central banks,” gold is rising while crypto-themed stocks are pulling back.

I don’t really understand the logic behind this gold move. It’s not a crisis—US stocks aren’t down. Maybe the dollar is weakening, or expectations for real interest rates are moving lower. In any case, crypto hasn’t caught up.

Optical communications is falling pretty oddly today. AAOI is down nearly 12%, Coherent 11.7%, and even Corning is down 7.7%. Two optical module ETFs are down 8.27 and 10.07 respectively—there’s no gap versus the individual stocks. This suggests it’s not one company’s earnings report that blew up; rather, money is pulling out of the entire sector, and passive funds are running too.

Optical modules have long been considered the most certain tool-seller within AI hardware—the more compute you stack, the stronger the interconnect demand. But now it’s also the first thing being cut. Once crowded trading loosens up, ETFs are even harder to run than individual stocks, because no one can distinguish who’s good and who’s bad—people cut first and ask questions later.

I haven’t seen any specific negative catalyst yet. Just looking at how it’s falling, it feels like someone is front-running.

Anthropic’s annual revenue fell short of expectations, and all three major U.S. stock indexes declined. But the Dow is down only 0.22%, the Nasdaq 1.32%—can this really be called “dragging down” the market? The drop is mainly in AI chips: Nvidia down 2.36%, AMD down 4.30%, Broadcom down 3.20%. Everything else in the market is basically unchanged.

More subtly, Anthropic isn’t even public. A private company missing on revenue can drag down the sentiment across the entire semiconductor sector, showing how much of this round’s AI pricing is expectation versus actual revenue. When revenue growth was faster before, no one questioned it; now that it’s slightly lower, everyone is pulling out.

SanDisk is also falling. Yesterday it said it would give back half of the chase; today, as memory price increases also retreat, that line of momentum has cooled too. In other words, the only AI sub-sector that had any real heat lately is also sputtering out.

Instead, I want to see whether BTC holds up. If U.S. stocks’ AI sentiment keeps cooling and crypto pretends nothing is happening, that would be true desensitization—but it won’t last long.

August 19, $BTC Market Outlook Analysis
Last night, when it rebounded to 65,000, I reduced my long position by some amount...~
You can regard this as a phase high.
Today, expect a pullback within the day. Key supports below: 64089-63900-63800.
It’s best not to break below~~~ Otherwise, the rebound scenario may continue.
If it breaks down, we need to look for a deeper pullback: 63200-63500-62800.

At present, the daily chart has closed with a bullish (green) candle, and the closing price is 64,600.

So today’s pullback will determine whether we can push up and form an even higher high.

The most important resistance level above is still 65,200. This is the dividing line for strength/weakness on the monthly chart.

There are also 13 days until a new monthly line opens.
If it opens higher and stays above 65,200, I think it will still rebound.

Personally, I reduced my long position. Today’s pullback will be added back.
I’ll keep holding spot—no changes.

August 19th $ETH market analysis

ETH rebounded, but 1920 still couldn’t effectively break through~~

Today, expect a small pullback intraday. Support levels have moved up: 1913-1906, 1899-1889, 1872

Key resistance above: 1920-1941

Personally, I’d still focus on going long on dips. If it breaks below 1870, cut it off.
The risk is that the 2-day line resistance at 1941 may hold. If it still doesn’t break, liquidity in August is generally poor.
So there’s always a possibility of re-testing deeper to find support.
But if the 1-day line has successfully formed a golden cross above right now, the chance of a breakout is high.
Even if the pullback here is relatively deep, it should rebound afterward.

So my personal bet is on a 1-day-line rebound setup—just manage your position size.

Tom Lee’s Bitmine bought another $19 million worth of ETH, saying it’s only 4% away from having 5% of the total supply. ETH is now 1895, up 0.11% in 24h. BTC is up 1.28%.

One institution said it’s almost holding 5% of the ETH, yet the price is showing absolutely no reaction. Either the buy orders were already absorbed, or nobody really believes it. I lean toward nobody believing it.

“The completion rate is 96%” sounds the strangest. Buying coins isn’t like hitting KPIs—why talk in a progress bar? It’s like reporting to someone.

I’m more curious about whether that 5% is being held down, or whether it will move. With a position of this size, the price somehow doesn’t get affected at all. I want to know whether it has ever moved.