glassnode

本周Glassnode出了一份分析报告，核心判断只有一句话：
这波复苏是真实的，但脆弱的。
拆开来说：
第一关卡：7.81万
BTC目前在7.4万附近，距离上方7.81万的「真实市场均值」还差5.2%。
这个价格不是随便画的线。
它是所有活跃供应的平均成本基础，是整个市场的"摊平价"。
历史上，熊市反弹打到这里往往会遇到第一波密集的抛压——
因为那些在上面被套住的人，看到接近回本就开始逃。
📊 【配图1】Risk Indicator · 真实市场均值结构图

第二个信号：短期持有者还没到出货阈值
「短期持有者盈利供应占比」目前是43.2%，历史上触发明显派发的阈值在54.2%。
还有11个百分点的距离——这是往上仍有空间的客观依据。
但要注意：越接近这条线，卖压就越重。
📊 【配图2】STH盈利供应占比 · 风险指标

第三个信号：获利了结在加速
Glassnode追踪的"已实现盈亏比"30日均值目前是1.16——
也就是说，链上每产生1美元的亏损，就有1.16美元的获利了结在发生。
比值大于1本身没问题，说明市场在修复。
但问题是：这个比值上升的速度和方式，历史上在熊市反弹期间是分配信号，不是复苏信号。
有人把反弹当机会出货。
📊 【配图3】已实现盈亏比 · 30日EMA

第四个信号：买盘来自哪里？
现货CVD确实翻正了。
但细看——Binance主导，Coinbase滞后。
简单翻译：是散户和离岸资金在买，机构还没大规模回来。
Glassnode给了个判断：
持续性上涨需要两个群体一起参与，现在只有一边在跑。
📊 【配图4】现货CVD偏差 · 交易所对比

第五个信号：机构谨慎重建，不是抢进
CME未平仓合约和ETF资金流都开始回升，但仍明显低于此前高点。
这不是全面做多，是小心试探。
📊 【配图5】CME未平仓合约 & ETF资金流（30D变化）

第六个信号：清算热力图——价格在两堆炸药之间
Hyperliquid数据显示，价格目前在$63K-$65K多头清算带和$74K-$76K空头清算带之间来回振荡。
近期反弹已触及上方空头清算区，但没有决定性突破。
这波走势不是方向性押注，是流动性被动驱动。
📊 【配图6】Hyperliquid清算热力图

第七个信号：期权市场不信这波
IV（隐含波动率）全线下降，期限结构平坦，1个月波动率压缩到42.6%附近。
价格涨了，波动率反而跌了——期权市场没有跟随定价风险。
📊 【配图7】BTC期权ATM隐含波动率 · Deribit

第八个信号：25Delta偏斜仍偏看跌
尽管波动率整体平静，看跌期权相对看涨期权仍有溢价。
偏斜从高十几回落到低十几，但始终没有转正——
市场在表面之下，仍然谨慎。
📊 【配图8】25Delta偏斜（全期限）· Deribit

第九个信号：1周VRP翻负——期权低估了实际波动
短期已实现波动率（~45%）已高于隐含波动率（~43%）。
期权市场低估了实际波动，导致溢价倒挂。
这不是稳定信号，是定价错位的信号。
📊 【配图9】1周波动率风险溢价（VRP）

第十个信号：负Gamma在$74K-$76K集中
做市商在这个区间有约30亿美元的负Gamma敞口。
负Gamma意味着价格越涨，做市商越要买入对冲——
这个结构本身会助推上行。
但突破之后，方向一旦反转，同样的机制会加速下跌。
📊 【配图10】BTC期权Gamma敞口分布

综合判断：
往上，还有空间；越往上，卖压越重。
能不能站上7.81万，取决于有没有足够的接盘来吃掉上面的抛压。
机构没有全面回来，这是目前最大的缺口。
一个问题：
你认为这波会测到7.81万吗？
还是认为在7.4万—7.6万之间就会先震一震？
关注我，关键数据持续跟踪。
数据来源：Glassnode · 2026年4月18日周报
#比特币 #BTC行情 #链上数据 #Glassnode #技术分析 $BTC $BNB $ETH

「投资者对趋势的信心指数」（数据来源：Glassnode）

从图上来看几乎走出了与上轮周期完全一致的波动形态。
两段结构，各有标注①②③④四个节点，走法高度吻合。
只是相比于 2021年12月—2022年1月 那段，
如今这段更「迷你」，跨度更短（个人判断与机构在场内有关）。
关键数据：
截止到4月20日，红色区距离回到上方零轴的偏离幅度，
与 2022年10月22日 几乎完全一致。
那意味着什么？
如果没有类似FTX暴雷那样的黑天鹅事件，
「投资者信心指数」大致将在 20多天后 回到零轴。
回到零轴意味着什么，不用我多说了吧？
那将是本轮结构里一个重要的里程碑。
再往后看一步：
即便后面BTC再次下探，甚至跌破前低——
只要红色区的偏离幅度，小于之前的低点（标注③），
我们就可以确认：
这是本轮熊市的「最后一跌」。
不是恐慌，是结构在确认。
说说你现在的判断：
你认为接下来20天，信心指数能回到零轴吗？
还是觉得还有黑天鹅在等着？
关注我不迷路，技术分析、趋势判断。
#比特币 #链上数据 #BTC行情 #技术分析 #Glassnode $BTC $BNB $ETH

Price is the last thing to move.
On-chain data moves first.
If you're making crypto decisions based only on price charts and Twitter — you're trading blind. Here's how to actually see what's happening before it shows up in price.
---
📡 SIGNAL 1 — EXCHANGE INFLOWS vs OUTFLOWS
When BTC flows INTO exchanges: holders are preparing to sell. Bearish signal.
When BTC flows OUT of exchanges: holders are withdrawing to cold storage. Bullish signal — supply leaving the market.
This single metric told you everything you needed to know before the 2021 top and the 2022 recovery.
Tools: Glassnode, CryptoQuant
---
📡 SIGNAL 2 — WHALE WALLET MOVEMENTS
Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC are tracked publicly on-chain.
When whales accumulate quietly → price often follows weeks later.
When whale wallets start moving coins to exchanges → distribution phase beginning.
You can't hide on a public blockchain. Every whale move is visible. Most people just don't look.
Tools: Nansen, Whale Alert, Arkham Intelligence
---
📡 SIGNAL 3 — STABLECOIN SUPPLY & FLOWS
Rising stablecoin supply on-chain = dry powder building = future buy pressure.
Stablecoins moving onto exchanges = money ready to buy = short-term bullish.
Stablecoins leaving exchanges into DeFi = risk-on sentiment = broader bull sign.
Stablecoins are the fuel. On-chain supply tells you how full the tank is.
---
📡 SIGNAL 4 — REALIZED PRICE vs MARKET PRICE
Realized price = average price at which all existing BTC was last moved on-chain.
When market price falls BELOW realized price → most holders are at a loss → capitulation zone → historically the best buying opportunity.
This happened in late 2022. Every on-chain analyst was screaming BUY. Price was 17000 per BTC. Most retail was too scared to act.
---
📡 SIGNAL 5 — MINER BEHAVIOR
Miners are forced sellers — they need to sell BTC to cover electricity costs.
When miners accumulate instead of selling → they expect higher prices → bullish.
When miner reserves drop rapidly → they're selling aggressively → bearish pressure ahead.
Post-halving miner behavior is especially important — reduced block rewards mean only efficient miners survive, and their accumulation decisions signal long-term confidence.
---
📡 SIGNAL 6 — ACTIVE ADDRESSES & NETWORK GROWTH
Rising daily active addresses = more people using the network = organic adoption.
Falling active addresses during a price pump = price driven by speculation not real use.
A pump with flat or falling active addresses is a warning sign.
A quiet accumulation period with rising active addresses is a buy signal most miss.
---
💡 HOW TO USE ALL OF THIS
You don't need to track every metric. Pick 2–3 and understand them deeply.
My personal shortlist:
→ Exchange outflows (BTC supply leaving market)
→ Stablecoin supply growth
→ Realized price vs market price
When all three align bullishly → I size up positions.
When they diverge → I wait or reduce exposure.
On-chain data doesn't lie. Narratives do.
#OnChainAnalysis #Bitcoin #Glassnode

El mercado de #Bitcoin podría estar transitando una fase clave de cambio estructural, según el más reciente informe de #Glassnode publicado el 13 de abril de 2026. La firma de análisis destaca que diversos indicadores on-chain muestran una transición desde la presión vendedora hacia un entorno más equilibrado, donde los inversionistas comienzan a pasar de vender con pérdidas a tomar ganancias, reflejando una mejora progresiva en el sentimiento general del mercado.

Entre las métricas más relevantes, Glassnode señala la evolución de la capitalización realizada, que aunque aún se mantiene en terreno negativo, evidencia una reducción en la salida de capital, sugiriendo menor presión bajista. A esto se suma el fuerte impulso en el delta de volumen spot, donde las compras agresivas han superado ampliamente las ventas, reforzando la convicción alcista en el corto plazo. Paralelamente, el aumento del interés abierto en futuros muestra una mayor participación especulativa, lo que incrementa la actividad del mercado y podría amplificar la volatilidad. En conjunto, estos factores apuntan a un ecosistema en transición, donde BTC muestra signos de mayor estabilidad incluso en un contexto global marcado por tensiones geopolíticas y presión en los mercados energéticos.

Si consideras que esta información ha sido útil, te invito a dar un "like" y a suscribirte a mi canal, donde diariamente compartiré contenido relevante sobre el mundo de las criptomonedas.

Aviso Legal ⚠️ La información proporcionada en este canal es únicamente con fines educativos y no debe interpretarse como asesoramiento financiero o estrategias de inversión. No nos hacemos responsables por decisiones tomadas basadas en el contenido presentado.

However, downward pressure remains amid a dip in supply in profit ratios.
Breakout past $2.30 could allow bulls to aim for more gains, but waning speculative appetite limits action.
XRP price trades near $2.15 and in the red over the week as circulating supply in profit plummets to 58.5%.
This is the lowest level the metric has touched since November 2024 when the Ripple token traded under $1, with blockchain analytics platform Glassnode noting a structurally fragile market.
Dips for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader altcoin market align with this XRP’s performance.
XRP supply in profit falls
According to analytics and research platform Glassnode, the strong downward pressure has XRP supply in profit tanking to around 58% – the lowest since November 2024.
That’s when the Ripple token traded near $0.53.
Losses in recent weeks have seen supply in loss rise significantly, with momentum buyers dominating and likely a source of sell-off pressure.
“Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss- a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers,” Glassnode wrote on X.
According to #Glassnode , #XRP distribution after profit realization since late September has been “into weakness, not strength.” But have bulls weathered the storm?
The launch of the XRP spot #ETF and key partnerships have buoyed sentiment despite price declines.
On XRP spot ETFs, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas recently noted:
Congrats to $XRPC for $58m in Day One volume, the most of any ETF launched this year (out of 900), BARELY edging out $BSOL's $57m. The two of them are in league of own tho as 3rd place is over $20m away.
— Eric Balchunas
XRP price forecast
Ripple (XRP) is trading around $2.15 at the time of writing on Wednesday as uncertainty across the crypto market continues.
While Bitcoin has bounced off lows of $89,500 and touched $93,000, the market is largely negative, with retail and institutional demand having faded in recent weeks.
Ripple’s token is down 1.6% in the past 24 hours as of writing.
The altcoin is also down nearly 12% in the past week, hovering largely near key support rather than at critical resistance.
This happens as risk-off sentiment cuts across the market, driven by macroeconomic jitters and panic selling.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows the relative strength index hovering near 38.
It’s downsloping to suggest potential declines, and any fresh weakness could derail bulls.
A similar outlook is observable with the moving average convergence divergence, which recently flashed a bearish crossover.
In addition, a dip in XRP open interest, with about $3.65 billion in OI being down from $4.11 billion, signals waning speculative fervor.
The weak derivatives outlook means traders are retreating onto the sidelines amid continued market uncertainty.
Therefore, the $2.10 and $2.00 areas mark key price levels.
On the upside, bulls face hurdles at $2.30 and $2.50 before the critical $3.00 mark comes into play.
#XRPPredictions #MarketSentimentToday