For-Exx Kripto 1

August 17–21, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar 🎯 WEEKLY THEME July CPI eased to 3.4% and core CPI to a five-month low of 2.5%, both in line with expectations. PPI was flat versus +0.2% expected. Combined with the July -23K NFP shock, September hold expectations rose to 64%. This week brings July FOMC minutes and global Flash PMI data. August NFP and CPI remain ahead, making this a positioning week before Jackson Hole. 📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Tuesday – August 18 15:30 TRT — Housing Starts & Building Permits 16:15 TRT — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization These will test whether July’s weakness was limited to employment or reflects broader economic slowing. 09:00 TRT — UK CPI A key signal for whether global disinflation is developing alongside the Fed’s easing signal. Wednesday – August 19 21:00 TRT — FOMC Minutes (July 28–29) The week’s key event. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented for a 25-bp hike. The minutes will show the strength of the internal debate. Because they predate the July -23K NFP shock, markets may view them as backward-looking. Friday – August 21 🌍 Afternoon — Global S&P Flash PMI Package 16:45 TRT — U.S. S&P Global Flash PMI The first major real-time activity data for August. Hiring and price components will show whether labor-market weakness is broadening and whether PPI’s flat reading is continuing. ⚡ CRYPTO & MARKET RISKS FOMC Minutes: Strong dissenting arguments could revive September hike expectations and support the dollar. If Warsh’s data-dependent stance dominates, 64% hold pricing could strengthen, supporting risk assets. But the minutes exclude the NFP shock. Flash PMI: Weak hiring signals would reinforce the slowdown narrative, strengthen September hold expectations and support crypto. Strong PMI could suggest the -23K NFP was temporary noise. A calm but fragile week: low summer liquidity could amplify any surprise in the minutes or PMIs. Jackson Hole (August 27–29) is the next major catalyst. $BTC $XRP

Fed’s Search for a New Path: Rate Hike Risk Remains After Inflation Data The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reviving a key market question: Will the next move be a cut or a hike? July’s decision and the August 12 CPI data suggest rate-hike risk remains on the table. The July decision passed 9-3, with three members voting for a 25-bp hike. The August 19 minutes will show why the committee diverged and will be closely watched ahead of September. July CPI offered a mixed picture. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% YoY, with monthly CPI at 0.1%. Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Weak labor data, including a 23K decline in July payrolls and weaker-than-expected ADP employment, had raised hopes for slower inflation. The moderate CPI reduced hike expectations, but did not eliminate them. The Fed’s hawkish camp remains active. Neel Kashkari argued rates should begin rising gradually to contain inflation. Lisa Cook said the Fed is prepared to hike if inflation fails to slow. Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that 2% remains the only inflation target, rejecting any “soft” or “implicit loose” target. The Financial Times reported that Warsh could support a September hike if inflation data comes in high. Warsh became the Fed’s 17th Chair on May 22, 2026, replacing Jerome Powell. His approach is more skeptical of forward guidance, making data dependence especially important. Markets now await Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole speech, where investors expect signals on the policy path without firm commitments. The next FOMC decision comes September 16 after the September 15-16 meeting. It will include updated economic projections and the dot plot. In short, moderate CPI reduced hike expectations, but Kashkari, Cook and Warsh show that rate-hike risk remains part of the Fed debate. The August 19 minutes and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will be key signals before September. $BTC $XRP

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 14, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
U.S. July PPI rose 4.7% YoY, below 4.9% expected, but crypto failed to recover as spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a second day of net outflows.
The SEC canceled its “Regulation Crypto” meeting, citing scheduling issues.
Goldman Sachs agreed to acquire NEOS Investments for up to $2.25B, adding ~$30B in options-based revenue ETFs, including Bitcoin- and Ethereum-linked funds.
SharpLink is moving $200M of treasury ETH into liquid staking via Lido.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index fell to ~36%, its 2026 low, while VIX also hit its lowest since January.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC fell to $62,700-$63,000, erasing last week’s gains and its lowest since August 3. Below all major moving averages, Fear & Greed fell to 29 and RSI14 stood at 42, weak but not oversold. Support is near $62,532; reclaiming the $63,961 EMA20 could signal weakening downside momentum. Despite spot weakness, ETFs recorded $850M in net inflows, showing institutional demand persists.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH traded at $ 1,870-$ 1,885,relatively resilient versus BTC. XRP remained near $ 1, while $NEAR ,Morpho, TAO and Jupiter fell about 2%. Altcoin positioning remains cautious.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $192M in outflows for a second straight day, the first two-day outflow streak since late July.
RedotPay reportedly suspended plans for a $1B U.S. IPO
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Connex (CONX) — Aug. 15:~$11.55M (1.43% of circulating supply), 1.32M tokens. 🟡
Arbitrum ( $ARB ) — Aug. 16:~$ 7.19M (1.61%), 92.65M tokens. 🟡
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🔭 OUTLOOK
Despite softer PPI, BTC failed to recover and ETFs saw a second straight day of outflows, suggesting liquidity and positioning, not macro data, are driving weakness. The SEC delay extends regulatory uncertainty. Goldman’s NEOS acquisition highlights institutional consolidation. CONX and ARB unlocks could add altcoin volatility as low implied volatility remains a key theme

$BTC is moving sideways in the same way, and it has been for quite some time. Look at the white lines; even though there are occasional moves above and below them, we can say it has been moving between 65,743 and 62,897... If prices were settling around the 50,000 levels and making these moves, I would say we had entered a consolidation phase ahead of a bull market, whether it lasted 3 months, 5 months, or whatever. But I think there is still another downward wave to come...

$HYPE is currently at 56.50, and I’m expecting it to test the 53.50 level.

Price ranges in crypto have been extremely tight lately; they’re basically grinding sideways, leaving hardly anything even with leverage. I’d like to attribute this to the declining trading volumes during the summer holiday period.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 13, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said the transfer of 5,014 BTC ($322M) was a routine treasury operation, with no sale and holdings unchanged at 43,000 BTC.
Fidelity filed with the SEC to add staking to its spot Ethereum ETF.
HashKey began offering its regulated HKDAP stablecoin to eligible investors in Hong Kong.
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₿ BITCOIN
$BTC opened at $63,400-$63,600, slightly lower than yesterday. Every daily open this week has been lower. BTC fell back to $63,200-$63,300. The $62,000-$66,000 range remains key; as long as Hormuz stays closed and no lasting Iran solution emerges, holding above $65,000 is becoming harder.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH opened at $ 1,870-$ 1,880, slightly lower. Monero and Hyperliquid outperformed in a narrow, low-volatility market. Fidelity’s ETH staking ETF filing supports the expansion of institutional Ethereum products.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Moderate CPI eased rate-hike pressure, but Middle East tensions are limiting risk appetite.
Bullish reported a $280M Q2 loss after a $244.6M decline in its Bitcoin holdings.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
UP — Aug. 13: ~$ 3.06M (7.44% of circulating supply). 🔴
$SEI — Aug. 15: ~$ 3.7M (1.42%). 🟡
STRK — Aug. 15: ~$ 3.2M (3.61%). 🟡
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🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Today’s PPI and jobless claims will show whether the moderate CPI picture is holding. BTC’s declining daily opens and failure to hold $65,000 show that unresolved Hormuz tensions continue to limit risk appetite. UP, SEI and STRK unlocks could add altcoin volatility. Progress on Fidelity’s ETH staking ETF application remains a potential medium-term catalyst for institutional Ethereum demand.

Что такое Worldcoin (WLD)? Почему проект Сэма Альтмана упал более чем на 97%?

Worldcoin ( $WLD ) — это криптопроект, созданный для того, чтобы отличать реальных людей от ботов, и строить глобальную сеть цифровой идентичности. Пользователи могут подтвердить, что они уникальные люди, с помощью биометрического устройства Orb.

Роль Сэма Альтмана в качестве сооснователя привлекла к проекту большое внимание. WLD достиг исторического максимума в $11,74 9 марта 2024 года, но в 2026 году торгуется примерно по $0,30, что означает падение примерно на 97%.

Теперь, работая как World Network, проект построен вокруг «доказательства личности». World ID призван позволить пользователям доказывать, что они являются реальными людьми, не раскрывая свою личность, с использованием доказательств с нулевым разглашением и биометрической верификации. World Chain — это сеть уровня 2 на базе Ethereum.

Worldcoin был запущен 24 июля 2023 года. Его видение включало цифровую идентичность, защиту от ботов и фейковых аккаунтов, доступ к финансам и ориентированную на человека блокчейн-инфраструктуру.

Orb — самая спорная технология проекта: она использует биометрические признаки, чтобы проверить, что человек является реальным и уникальным. Хотя World утверждает, что криптографические методы защищают исходные биометрические данные, сканирование радужной оболочки вызвало опасения по поводу приватности и регулирования. В 2024 году Испания временно остановила сбор биометрических данных, а Португалия ввела схожую приостановку на 90 дней.

Падение WLD имеет несколько причин: высокий объем предложения токенов и постоянные разблокировки, поступление долей инвесторов и команды в обращение, слабее ожидаемое использование, проблемы с регулированием, опасения по поводу биометрических данных, общая слабость альткоинов и угасание ожиданий, связанных с ростом стоимости, обусловленным ИИ.

В октябре 2024 года Worldcoin был переименован в World Network/World.

Рост ИИ-генерируемых ботов может повысить спрос на технологию доказательства личности. Однако восстановление WLD зависит от того, сможет ли реальное использование расти достаточно быстро, чтобы поглощать новый объем предложения. Регулирование и социальное принятие биометрической технологии остаются ключевыми рисками.

The expectation for keeping interest rates unchanged, which was 51.9% ahead of yesterday’s CPI, is now nearly 64% as of today. Today’s PPI could change the picture again if it comes in with a surprise. For this year, traders have reduced their expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates. $BTC

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 12, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
U.S. July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY; core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, in line with expectations.
September rate-hike odds fell to 42% after CPI.
A BTCPay Server vulnerability led to stolen funds from affected Lightning-node merchants.
Iran maintains that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until its conditions are met; Trump’s compensation demand weakened hopes of relief.
Trump is considering a capital-gains tax cut ahead of the midterms.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $ 7.8M in net inflows, led by BlackRock IBIT.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC fell to $63,200 before CPI on leveraged liquidations, then recovered to $64,000-$64,200. The in-line CPI reduced rate-hike pressure. The $62,700-$65,200 range remains key; above $65,200 could target $66,800, while below $62,700 could bring $62,000-$62,400 into focus. Fear & Greed is 37 (Fear), while BTC’s S&P 500 correlation remains high at 84.5%.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH traded around $ 1,880-$ 1,915 and opened 0.5% higher. XRP continues to defend $ 1. Altcoins recovered slightly alongside BTC after CPI matched expectations.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Shelter rose 0.1% MoM, accounting for about two-thirds of July’s CPI increase; energy fell 1.5% MoM but remained 14.7% higher YoY.
Strategy sold 1,690 BTC at an average $64,262 for about $109M, marking a second consecutive weekly sale.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Story Protocol (IP) — Aug. 13: ~1.7% of total supply, 17.5M tokens. Private investors + insiders + community. 🟡
$YZY — Aug. 16: ~$35.47M, 22.83% of planned distribution. 🔴
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🔭 OUTLOOK
CPI matching expectations reduced September hike odds to 42%,mildly supporting risk assets. Elevated energy prices and Middle East uncertainty keep inflation risks fragile. Strategy’s second weekly $BTC BTC sale signals weaker institutional demand. IP and YZY unlocks could add altcoin volatility,while the BTCPay vulnerability keeps crypto security in focus

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 11, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
Stablecoin card spending hit $ 1.03B in July, up 16%.
Keel Infrastructure shut all U.S. Bitcoin mining sites after Q2 losses hit $141M.
Iran said Hormuz will remain closed; Trump’s demand for 50 years of compensation pushed oil back to $89.
Strategy is selling BTC for $432.5M after seven weeks without purchases.
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₿ BITCOIN
$BTC opened at $63,900-$64,300, down 1.4%, and remains below $65,000 resistance. Fading Hormuz relief hopes and Saylor’s BTC selling pressure price, while whale accumulation and Keel’s shutdown point to tighter supply. Markets await July CPI tomorrow; September hike pricing is near 50/50. Above $65,000 could target $68,000-$70,000; otherwise $62,000-$60,000 may return to focus.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH opened at $ 1,870- $ 1,890, down 2%. XRP is weakening toward $ 1. Markets remain defensive ahead of CPI, which could set direction for altcoins.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Hormuz relief trade unwound ahead of CPI.
Strategy reportedly sold BTC at a loss while selling $650M of MSTR shares, yet MSTR barely reacted.
CLARITY Act passage odds for 2026 are 30%-33% on Polymarket.
BIP-110 stopped after two blocks and fell 80+ blocks behind.
Stablecoin spending growth signals faster crypto-payment adoption.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Aptos ( $APT ) — Aug. 12: ~$52.1M, 2.20% of circulating supply (~11.31M tokens). 🟡
Aethir (ATH) — Aug. 12: ~3.6% of market cap, 1.1% of total supply (~471M tokens). Community (71%) + Insiders + Private Investors. 🟡
No single major cliff unlock tomorrow.
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🔭 OUTLOOK
July CPI is tomorrow’s key event. Hot CPI could pressure BTC; cool CPI could support a break above $65,000. Trump’s compensation demand has reduced hopes of Hormuz relief, keeping oil and risk appetite volatile. Saylor selling and Keel’s shutdown highlight supply pressure. APT and ATH unlocks could add volatility to mid-cap altcoins.

$XRP is fighting to hold around the $ 1.00 level. If this level breaks, it could drop toward $0.80.

Июльский CPI США: Критический порог для рынков Бюро статистики труда США (BLS) опубликует данные по CPI за июль в среду, 12 августа, в 15:30 TRT (08:30 ET). Это ключевой макроиндикатор недели, и он может повлиять на траекторию ФРС в сентябре. Июньский CPI удивил рынки: годовой CPI снизился с 4,2% до 3,5%, что ниже ожидавшихся 3,8%, а помесячный CPI упал на 0,4% — это самое резкое снижение с апреля 2020 года. Базовый CPI снизился с 2,9% до 2,6% г/г против ожидавшихся 2,8%, чему способствовало падение цен на энергоносители после прекращения огня США—Иран. На заседании FOMC 29 июля ФРС удержала ставки на уровне 3,50%–3,75% и спрогнозировала лишь одно снижение на 25 б.п. в 2026 году — более «ястребиная» позиция, чем ожидали рынки. На июль консенсус ожидает общий CPI около 2,8%, а базовый CPI — 3,0% г/г. Рынки будут следить за ценами на энергоносители, инфляцией жилья и «липкими» ценами на товары. Ценообразование снижения ставки в сентябре сейчас примерно разделено между 25 и 50 б.п., что повышает риск резкой реакции рынка. Если общий CPI окажется ниже 2,7%, а базовый — ниже 2,9%, рынки могут заложить более высокую вероятность снижения ставки в сентябре на 50 б.п. Доллар, вероятно, ослабнет, тогда как золото, серебро, акции и Bitcoin могут вырасти. Если общий CPI будет около 2,8%, а базовый — около 3,0%, текущие ожидания по ставкам со стороны ФРС, вероятно, останутся в основном без изменений. Если общий CPI превысит 3,0%, а базовый — 3,2%, опасения по поводу «липкой» инфляции вернутся. Доллар, вероятно, укрепится по мере снижения ожиданий по снижению ставки, а акции и крипто могут оказаться под давлением. Золото и серебро также могут подешеветь, хотя геополитические риски на Ближнем Востоке могут поддерживать спрос на защитные активы. Более высокие цены на энергоносители из‑за напряженности между США и Ираном могут поднять инфляцию, одновременно поддерживая спрос на золото и серебро как на защитные активы. CPI в среду будет критически важным для решения ФРС по сентябрю и для направления рынка в ближайшей перспективе. Особое внимание стоит уделить месячному базовому CPI, потому что годовые цифры могут искажаться эффектами базы. $BTC $ETH

🔐 ОТЧЁТ О РЫНКЕ ЗА КОНЕЦ ДНЯ — 10 августа 2026 г. (3/3 страница)
🔓 РАЗБЛОКИ ТАКЕНОВ 11 августа

İO . NET ( $IO )

Сумма: $1 .3M-$ 1 .9M (~2.7-4.1% от циркулирующего предложения, ~2% от общего предложения) — 14-16M токенов

Профиль получателей: Частные инвесторы 47%, Сообщество 35.5%, Инсайдеры 17%

Давление продаж: 🟡

Solayer ( $LAYER )

Сумма: $1 .6M-$ 1.9M (~12.9% от циркулирующего объёма) — 27-31M токенов

Профиль получателей: Сообщество и экосистема + Фонд

Давление продаж: 🔴

Примечание: Высокое относительно циркулирующего объёма — крупнейшее относительное влияние среди сегодняшних разблокировок.

Nereus Token (NRS)

Сумма: $1 .1M (1.5% от циркулирующего предложения, ~31% от рыночной капитализации) — ~15M токенов

Профиль получателей: Фонд + Инсайдеры + Сообщество

Давление продаж: 🔴

Примечание: Самая «размывающая» отдельная позиция относительно капитализации — значимое соотношение для токена с малой капитализацией.

Согласно DefiLlama, общий объём за день — приблизительно $46 миллионов; нет единого крупного «клифа» по разблокировкам, при этом несколько средних и небольших разблокировок происходят одновременно.

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🔭 ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ И ПРЕДСТОЯЩИЕ СОБЫТИЯ

Сенат ушёл на каникулы, не проголосовав по Закону CLARITY, тем самым убрав ожидаемый августовский катализатор — хотя Тьюн (Thune) заявил, что поставит законопроект первым пунктом повестки, когда Сенат вернётся в сентябре. Споры вокруг этических положений и доходностей по стейблкоинам по‑прежнему угрожают порогу в 60 голосов. Несмотря на это, реакция рынка была ограниченной: сильные притоки в ETF показывают, что институциональный спрос остаётся живым, несмотря на неопределённость в регулировании. Два ключевых инфляционных отчёта на этой неделе, включая CPI 12 августа, снова проверят ожидания снижения темпов повышения ставки в сентябре после слабых данных по занятости в пятницу. Шесть разблокировок токенов 11 августа могут увеличить дневную волатильность, особенно среди альткоинов с малой и средней капитализацией. Будет ли формализовано соглашение Иран–Оман о проходе через Ормузский пролив, о котором сообщает Reuters, останется решающим для цен на нефть и склонности к риску

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 10, 2026 (2/3 Page) ━━━

🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS

ETH is defending $ 1,900 this morning, trading in the $ 1,900-$ 1,915 range; Ethereum ETFs recorded $244 million in net inflows last week — the strongest weekly flow since April 2026. Solana reached a two-week high, while the Arcade Games and XRP Ledger ecosystems were the day’s top-performing segments. Bitmine added 7,391 $ETH within one week, bringing its total Ethereum holdings to 5.81 million ETH — institutional accumulation continues. On the losing side, $ALGO fell 5.5% and Midnight declined 4.4%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 30 (Fear).

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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS

BTCPay Server confirmed that funds were stolen due to a critical security vulnerability that is actively being exploited

Kraken’s decision to delist 21 tokens is increasing liquidity concerns for holders of those tokens

Bitcoin’s BIP-110 fork (a proposal to limit Ordinals/inscription data) failed to gain sufficient miner support from the community — the fork has mined only two blocks so far and represents just ~0.15% of total hashrate; the main chain continues to operate normally

Grayscale is converting staking rewards in its Ethereum staking product into monthly cash distributions; annual net staking yield after fees is approximately 2.61%

The CLARITY Act entered the Senate recess without a vote; Polymarket is pricing the probability of the bill passing in 2026 at approximately 30-33%, while Kalshi puts it as high as 67% — a significant divergence between the markets continues

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 10, 2026 (1/3 Page)

🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES

UBS warns of short-term risks for gold but maintains its $5,000 target

Trump: “Iran is asking for compensation for the damage; I am also demanding compensation from Iran”

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The security of the Strait of Hormuz depends on the aggressors ending their military actions against Iran and compensating for previous violations — IRIB

White House Senior Adviser Hassett: Kevin Warsh is as independent as possible; if he were at the Fed, he would hold or lower interest rates

The Senate adjourned for the August recess without voting on the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act; Majority Leader Thune said the bill will be the first item taken up when the Senate returns in September — the regulatory catalyst expected by crypto markets has been postponed until September

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₿ BITCOIN

$BTC is trading in the $63,850-$65,300 range this morning and has held $65,000 for four days; the rally following Friday’s much weaker-than-expected employment data continues. Small investors (0.1-1 BTC) sold 9,700 coins on August 9 — indicating they are not fully convinced by the long-term bullish scenario.

Total liquidations today reached $93 million (down 37% from yesterday); BTC and $ETH accounted for the largest shares at $17M and $14M, respectively. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $844 million in net inflows during the August 3-7 week — one of the strongest weekly flows since April; institutional demand has not dried up despite the CLARITY Act being postponed. A breakout above $66,000-$ 67,000 could bring $68,000-$ 69,000 into focus, while a close below $64,000 could bring the $63,000-$62,500 range into play.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold 1,690 BTC ($108.6 million at an average price of $64,262) — continuing the company’s shift away from its “never sell” policy.

Assuming the current burn rate remains unchanged: * Burned: 454,705,701,390 LUNC * Approximate period: 4 years * Average annual burn: ≈113.68 billion $LUNC * This represents approximately 6.5% of the total supply * Remaining supply: ≈93.5% At the same rate, burning the remaining supply in full would take: ≈57.5 more years. Therefore, assuming the current burn rate remains unchanged, the entire LUNC supply would theoretically be burned around 2083–2084, based on the process that began in 2022. However, this is a linear mathematical projection. If the burn rate increases or decreases over time, the estimated date would change significantly.

August 10–14, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TRT) August 12 15:30 TRT — CPI, July 2026 In June, headline CPI fell to 3.5% as the energy component declined 5.7%. That picture is expected to reverse in July: Gasoline prices fully recovered their June decline, while crude oil ended the month with a significant monthly gain. Whether core CPI remains sticky at 2.6% is also critical for Warsh’s “two steps required” inflation assessment. Hot headline + sticky core = a scenario in which Warsh gives the green light for a September hike. Hot headline + cooling core = a mixed signal with high uncertainty. If both components cool, expect the market to begin pricing in a new round of currency weakness. --- August 13 15:30 TRT — PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims, July 2026 Both will be released at the same time. June PPI declined 0.3% month-on-month. In July, the surge in energy input costs may have pushed producer prices higher; a hot PPI reading one day after CPI would reinforce the view that “pipeline inflation continues to build.” Jobless claims: The first indicator measuring whether the NFP collapse is being confirmed on a weekly basis. A sudden increase would signal that “a genuine unemployment wave has begun.” --- ⚡ Crypto & Market Risks **CPI (Wednesday 15:30):** This is the single breaking point of the week. If CPI comes in hot: Warsh’s “I’m ready” message becomes active, September hike expectations are rapidly repriced, last week’s NFP rally is partially reversed, the dollar strengthens, and crypto comes under leverage pressure. If CPI comes in cool: The September hike is completely taken off the table, the risk-on environment deepens, and upside momentum for $BTC / $ETH remains intact. The riskiest scenario: An energy-driven headline surge + sticky core inflation = stagflation becoming officially confirmed by the data. The Fed does not know what to do, and the market does not know what to price in — high volatility and sharp two-way moves.

August 10–14, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TRT)

August 12 15:30 TRT — CPI, July 2026

In June, headline CPI fell to 3.5% as the energy component declined 5.7%. That picture is expected to reverse in July: Gasoline prices fully recovered their June decline, while crude oil ended the month with a significant monthly gain. Whether core CPI remains sticky at 2.6% is also critical for Warsh’s “two steps required” inflation assessment. Hot headline + sticky core = a scenario in which Warsh gives the green light for a September hike. Hot headline + cooling core = a mixed signal with high uncertainty. If both components cool, expect the market to begin pricing in a new round of currency weakness.

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August 13 15:30 TRT — PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims, July 2026

Both will be released at the same time. June PPI declined 0.3% month-on-month. In July, the surge in energy input costs may have pushed producer prices higher; a hot PPI reading one day after CPI would reinforce the view that “pipeline inflation continues to build.” Jobless claims: The first indicator measuring whether the NFP collapse is being confirmed on a weekly basis. A sudden increase would signal that “a genuine unemployment wave has begun.”

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⚡ Crypto & Market Risks

**CPI (Wednesday 15:30):** This is the single breaking point of the week. If CPI comes in hot: Warsh’s “I’m ready” message becomes active, September hike expectations are rapidly repriced, last week’s NFP rally is partially reversed, the dollar strengthens, and crypto comes under leverage pressure. If CPI comes in cool: The September hike is completely taken off the table, the risk-on environment deepens, and upside momentum for BTC/ETH remains intact. The riskiest scenario: An energy-driven headline surge + sticky core inflation = stagflation becoming officially confirmed by the data. The Fed does not know what to do, and the market does not know what to price in — high volatility and sharp two-way moves.

$LUNC ’s market cap was approximately $40 billion before the collapse, at its April 2022 peak. Its ATH price was $119.18 (April 5, 2022), while its supply at the time was around 345-353 million tokens.

Currently (August 2026), Lunc has a market cap of around $270 million, with a supply of 5,523,414,342,697 tokens.

If LUNC’s market cap were $40 billion today with this supply, its price would be approximately $0.00724, meaning two zeros would be removed.

That would represent an increase of approximately 147x.

$LUNC уже некоторое время удерживается на текущем уровне, сдерживая дальнейшее снижение, но его неспособность закрываться ежедневно выше 5045 повышает вероятность движения вниз...