【Bitcoin Options Analysis】 November 14
Based primarily on gamma exposure (GEX) data
BTC fell below the key $70,000 level. Here’s where the options market stands now.
Hedging demand is concentrated around $68,000–$70,000. BTC moved sharply ahead of the latest weekly expiry, a reminder that price can move unexpectedly around expiration.
After BTC broke below $70,000, $69,500 emerged as the nearest options wall. The immediate question is whether BTC can reclaim and hold $70,000. On the downside, $68,000 is the first level to watch, followed by $65,000.
The estimated gamma flip level for market makers is around $70,800, and BTC is currently trading below it. In this regime, dealer hedging can amplify price moves, making technical support and resistance less reliable.
BVIV, a measure of Bitcoin’s implied volatility, has stayed in the 40% range over the past few days and moved only modestly during the recent sell-off. A rise in implied volatility means options are pricing in larger swings. A decline means they’re pricing in smaller swings, though the market can still move sharply.
Until yesterday, realized volatility (HV) was slightly above DVOL, meaning recent price swings were slightly larger than those implied by options prices. The two are now roughly in line.
On the IBIT options side, open interest is concentrated at strikes equivalent to roughly $70,000 in BTC terms, particularly for the November 20 expiry. That concentration suggests $70,000 remains a key level even after BTC broke below it.
#BTC
#bitcoin
#IBIT
#BitcoinETF
Based primarily on gamma exposure (GEX) data
BTC fell below the key $70,000 level. Here’s where the options market stands now.
Hedging demand is concentrated around $68,000–$70,000. BTC moved sharply ahead of the latest weekly expiry, a reminder that price can move unexpectedly around expiration.
After BTC broke below $70,000, $69,500 emerged as the nearest options wall. The immediate question is whether BTC can reclaim and hold $70,000. On the downside, $68,000 is the first level to watch, followed by $65,000.
The estimated gamma flip level for market makers is around $70,800, and BTC is currently trading below it. In this regime, dealer hedging can amplify price moves, making technical support and resistance less reliable.
BVIV, a measure of Bitcoin’s implied volatility, has stayed in the 40% range over the past few days and moved only modestly during the recent sell-off. A rise in implied volatility means options are pricing in larger swings. A decline means they’re pricing in smaller swings, though the market can still move sharply.
Until yesterday, realized volatility (HV) was slightly above DVOL, meaning recent price swings were slightly larger than those implied by options prices. The two are now roughly in line.
On the IBIT options side, open interest is concentrated at strikes equivalent to roughly $70,000 in BTC terms, particularly for the November 20 expiry. That concentration suggests $70,000 remains a key level even after BTC broke below it.
#BTC
#bitcoin
#IBIT
#BitcoinETF
