UK labour market steadies, reinforcing expectations of a BoE rate hike
📊 Data released on October 20 showed UK unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August. Regular pay rose 3.7% year on year, suggesting the labour market is stabilising after a prolonged slowdown.
💷 Sterling gained around 0.3% to USD 1.3343 following the report. Markets were almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point BoE rate hike on November 5.
🏢 However, vacancies fell to 691,000 in July–September, showing employers remain cautious about hiring. Improving unemployment and wages alone do not establish a strong recovery.
⚖️ The report reinforces expectations of a November hike, while the subsequent policy path still depends on inflation and how higher energy costs feed into wages and prices.
#UKEconomy $UNI
📊 Data released on October 20 showed UK unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August. Regular pay rose 3.7% year on year, suggesting the labour market is stabilising after a prolonged slowdown.
💷 Sterling gained around 0.3% to USD 1.3343 following the report. Markets were almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point BoE rate hike on November 5.
🏢 However, vacancies fell to 691,000 in July–September, showing employers remain cautious about hiring. Improving unemployment and wages alone do not establish a strong recovery.
⚖️ The report reinforces expectations of a November hike, while the subsequent policy path still depends on inflation and how higher energy costs feed into wages and prices.
#UKEconomy $UNI