• During the previous bear cycle, NUPL declined for approximately one year, eventually falling below 0 before beginning a sustained recovery. It reached -0.31.

• In the current cycle, the deterioration also lasted about one year, but the recovery began from a considerably less severe level of market stress. NUPL never fell below 0 and reached a low of only +0.09, meaning that the market remained in aggregate unrealized profit even at the deepest point of the decline.

• From its low, NUPL increased to +0.38, representing a rise of approximately 300%. This recovery occurred in just three months. The last time a recovery of similar magnitude occurred after a downtrend was in early 2023, which preceded a major bullish trend that extended through 2025.

Written by Facundo Fama