The interesting part here is that the first line of pain may not be the ETF buyers. Leveraged longs are much more fragile because they can be forcefully liquidated as $BTC moves lower.
If $83K gives way, those longs could become the first source of selling pressure. Then, $82.5K becomes important.
A move toward $81K would put many recent ETF buyers below their estimated cost basis, and that is where psychology starts changing.
The market may look cleaner with lower OI and neutral funding, but spot holders can still create selling pressure if support keeps breaking.
For me, $83K to $80K is the real test. Lose that zone, and the Q4 narrative gets a lot more complicated.
If $83K gives way, those longs could become the first source of selling pressure. Then, $82.5K becomes important.
A move toward $81K would put many recent ETF buyers below their estimated cost basis, and that is where psychology starts changing.
The market may look cleaner with lower OI and neutral funding, but spot holders can still create selling pressure if support keeps breaking.
For me, $83K to $80K is the real test. Lose that zone, and the Q4 narrative gets a lot more complicated.