BREAKING: The CLARITY Act fails to secure the 60 votes needed to advance in the US Senate.
Harshit-crypto
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Рост
August core CPI came in at +0.3% month-over-month and the market is now basically pricing a 25 bp hike this week at 90%.
Do I think they’re going to hike?
If they do hike, here’s how I’m thinking about the reaction:
* Short-term it’s usually risk-off. Liquidity gets pulled, leverage gets flushed. We’ve all seen this movie. The interesting part is what happens 24–48 hours later once the decision is fully digested.
* Tech Stocks: The usual suspects (long-duration growth names) will probably take the biggest hit on the day. Not financial advice, just pattern recognition.
* Gold: This is the one I’m watching closest. Higher real rates are a headwind, but gold has been surprisingly resilient when risk assets wobble. It often ends up being the least-ugly place to hide.
Personally I’m keeping crypto exposure light into the decision and leaning a bit more on gold as a hedge.
Will reassess once the statement and presser are out.
August core CPI came in at +0.3% month-over-month and the market is now basically pricing a 25 bp hike this week at 90%.
Do I think they’re going to hike?
If they do hike, here’s how I’m thinking about the reaction:
* Short-term it’s usually risk-off. Liquidity gets pulled, leverage gets flushed. We’ve all seen this movie. The interesting part is what happens 24–48 hours later once the decision is fully digested.
* Tech Stocks: The usual suspects (long-duration growth names) will probably take the biggest hit on the day. Not financial advice, just pattern recognition.
* Gold: This is the one I’m watching closest. Higher real rates are a headwind, but gold has been surprisingly resilient when risk assets wobble. It often ends up being the least-ugly place to hide.
Personally I’m keeping crypto exposure light into the decision and leaning a bit more on gold as a hedge.
Will reassess once the statement and presser are out.
NFP Surprises to the Upside , What Does It Mean for the Fed?
The recent nonfarm payrolls report showed robust job growth, proving once again that the labor market is holding up strong. Now, with the CPI inflation numbers right around the corner, market volatility is setting in.
Fed Outlook: Hike or Hold?
A hot NFP report combined with sticky CPI leaves the Federal Reserve in a tough spot. If CPI prints higher than forecasted, the Fed won't hesitate to maintain a hawkish stance — keeping rate hikes firmly on the table or holding rates elevated far longer than the market anticipated.
My Market Take & Trade Positioning
- Stance: Bullish on Gold, Neutral-to-Bearish on High-P/E Stocks.
- Strategy: Sticky inflation and higher-for-longer rate prospects usually weigh on stock valuations.
I am hedging risk by staying heavily allocated in Gold $XAUT as a macro store of value, while maintaining strict stop-loss orders on active stock trades until the CPI data clears.