鄭李

The ongoing conflict between the [United States] is severely disrupting global trade, primarily driven by a stalled ceasefire agreement, a parallel blockade of the critical Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, and renewed military exchanges. While negotiators from both sides are actively working in back-and-forth language adjustments to secure a diplomatic deal, current on-the-ground hostilities have triggered structural shocks to energy, maritime transport, and international supply chains.
The key impacts of this conflict on global trade manifest across several major economic vectors:
## Energy Supply Shocks and Volatility
* Chokepoint Closure: The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed or heavily restricted due to the Iranian blockade, cutting off a passage that typically handles roughly 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas and oil supplies.
* Depleted Inventories: Global oil availability is suffering a severe supply shock, rapidly draining safety buffers and driving upward pressure on global prices.
* Targeted Exports: The disruptions hit Asian trade lanes hardest, as roughly 82% of the oil moving through the Strait is historically destined for Asian markets.
## Paralysis of Global Shipping Lanes
* Dual Bottleneck Crises: Maritime trade faces synchronized paralysis; the [Red Sea-Suez Canal route is severely disrupted by renewed Houthi strikes](https://trendsresearch.org/insight/the-impact-of-the-u-s-israel-iran-conflict-on-the-global-economy/), compounding the blockade at the Strait of Hormuz.
* Escalating Costs: Marine and aviation freight rates remain deeply elevated. Airlines are facing reduced jet fuel availability and steep war-risk insurance premiums, directly spiking the cost of international air cargo.
* Shift to "Just-in-Case": Global logistics corporations are aggressively abandoning "just-in-time" delivery models. Trade routes are being structurally redesigned around security and resilience, resulting in localized economic fragmentation and long-term inflationary risks.
## Financial Market Strain and Regional Destabilization
* Regional Hub Losses: Key Middle Eastern economic and investment hubs, including Dubai, Doha, and Manama, have witnessed sharp declines in investment sentiment and trade flows. The total financial toll of the conflict on Arab states is projected to eclipse their entire collective GDP growth from 2025.
* Safe-Haven Surge: Market volatility has caused global equity markets to experience sharp selling pressures. Investor risk-aversion has conversely driven a [massive surge in the value of the US Dollar](https://www.devere-group.com/is-the-us-dollar-getting-stronger-what-the-iran-war-means-for-the-greenback/) and Treasury yields as capital flees to safety.
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