Binance News

Micron Technology (Nasdaq: MU) $MUB reported better-than-expected quarterly results on Wednesday and issued strong guidance as the memory maker continues to benefit from soaring AI-infrastructure demand, according to CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. For the fiscal fourth quarter ended Sept. 3, adjusted earnings were $33.42 a share, topping the $31.61 LSEG consensus, while revenue nearly quadrupled from a year earlier to $54.23 billion, versus about $51.07 billion expected. Net income climbed to $37.7 billion, or $32.87 a share, from $3.2 billion, or $2.83, a year ago. For the current first quarter, Micron guided to revenue of about $61.5 billion and adjusted EPS of about $38.15, well above analyst estimates. The stock, up more than 500% over the past year, was the best performer in the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index this year through Wednesday's close, gaining 273%, with a market cap topping $1.2 trillion.
The results reflect a worldwide supply crunch driven by historic demand for AI memory, which has lifted prices and raised costs for consumer electronics like Apple's iPads and MacBooks. Micron, the only US-based maker of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), saw fourth-quarter DRAM revenue jump 343% from a year earlier to $39.8 billion, or 73% of total sales. Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra said the company has a "strong roadmap for future HBM products" and is working with Nvidia on the industry's "first custom HBM implementation." He struck a notably confident tone on the memory cycle: "Industry demand has strengthened since our last earnings call, and we expect memory and storage supply demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026." Gabelli Funds' Hendi Susanto called it "another strong beat and raise," adding he had "not heard any negative data points pointing to the memory cycle reversing toward a decline anytime soon."
Micron warned margins would tighten slightly this quarter, partly on higher worker pay. Adjusted gross margin was 87% last quarter and is seen narrowing to 86.3% in the current period. "We made the decision to increase incentive compensation," Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy said. "Incentive comp is the big driver to that gross margin outlook." President and Chief Operating Officer Manish Bhatia said manufacturing pay increases, booked through inventory, would make this quarter the low point for margins. S&P Global's Melissa Otto said investors "will likely want to understand the impact of pricing on gross margin and the durability of earnings." Micron is investing $250 billion to build two new HBM campuses — the largest broke ground in Clay, New York, in January, with a Boise, Idaho fab due online next year — and guided to about $25 billion in first-half capital spending, including roughly $11.5 billion this quarter. It has signed 26 long-term supply agreements, up from 16 in June, totaling $32 billion and representing more than 35% of expected revenue through 2030, some extending into 2031. Mehrotra attended an AI-regulation summit hosted by President Donald Trump on Tuesday, days after a White House dinner with Chinese President Xi Jinping; separately, hundreds of Micron staff threatened to strike at its Taiwan factories over pay, after similar strikes at rivals SK Hynix and Samsung yielded bonuses upwards of $500,000.

US initial jobless claims totalled 197,000 for the week ending September 26, below the 200,000 expected and the prior week's revised 198,000.The figure is the third labour market data point this week, following ADP private payrolls at 90,000 and ahead of Friday's official non-farm payrolls report.Claims Below 200,000 Describe a Tight Labour MarketThe level matters more than the weekly change.Initial claims measure people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, so they track firings rather than hiring. A reading under 200,000 is historically low and indicates employers are holding onto staff.The 1,000 decline from the prior week is noise within a volatile weekly series. Claims regularly move several thousand on seasonal factors and single-state events.What the data establishes is that the labour market is not deteriorating through layoffs. It says nothing about whether hiring is accelerating, which is what payrolls measures.The Week's Labour Data Points One WayThree releases now sit together.ADP reported private payrolls rising 90,000 in September, above the 70,000 expected and more than double August's 36,000. Chief economist Nela Richardson described wage growth as robust after three months of slowdown.The Chicago PMI jumped to 58.8 from 47.1, well above forecasts of 51.2 — a possible preview of national ISM figures.Claims at 197,000 complete a set that reads as firm rather than weakening.That Argues Against the Rate ReliefThe combination complicates Wednesday's inflation-driven repricing.August PCE came in softer than forecast across all four measures, with headline at 3.4% year over year against 3.7% expected and core at 3% against 3.3%. CME FedWatch showed October hike odds falling to 47.1% from 70% about 48 hours earlier.But the bond market reversed within hours. The 10-year closed at 5.276% after falling as low as 5.20%, having touched 5.30% — its highest since 2002. The dollar index has since climbed to 101.81, a 16-month high.A labour market holding firm while inflation sits above 3% is not a configuration that supports cutting. It is the one that kept the Fed hiking.Friday Resolves the DisagreementNon-farm payrolls arrive with prediction markets and bank economists split by a wide margin.Kalshi prices nearly 60% odds of a figure above 90,000 and about 50% of topping 100,000. Goldman Sachs forecasts 80,000 with unemployment holding at 4.1%. Bank of America expects 60,000, of which 50,000 from the private sector.This week's data tilts toward the higher end of that range. Claims and ADP both came in firm, and neither supports Bank of America's figure.The relationship is loose rather than determinative. ADP covers private payrolls only and uses a different methodology from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while claims measure a different thing entirely.What It Means for CryptoBitcoin traded around $83,500 after reaching $85,500 on the PCE print and giving the move back.Bitfinex analysts identify real yields as the main pressure, with the 10-year inflation-adjusted yield climbing to 2.83% from 2.68% in the week to September 25.A strong payrolls print would push yields and the dollar higher, compounding that. A weak one would support the rate relief the inflation data suggested but the bond market rejected.Bitcoin closed the third quarter 42.71% higher, its best third quarter since 2017, with US spot ETFs drawing $6.34 billion over the period.

Bitcoin rose 0.4% to just above $83,700 in Thursday's Asian morning, having reached $85,500 on Wednesday after a softer-than-expected US inflation report.The gains drained away as Treasury yields stayed near their highest levels since 2002.HYPE led the majors, up 3% to about $89, and Dogecoin gained nearly 2% to just under 10 cents. Ether, BNB, Tron and Zcash each added less than 1%, XRP was flat at $1.50, and Solana slipped nearly 1% to just under $119.The Inflation Print Did Its Job. The Bond Market Did Not Respond.August PCE showed prices up 3.4% from a year earlier and 3.0% excluding food and energy."That has reduced the odds of another Federal Reserve rate increase in October and made December look like the more likely next move," said Dan Khus, chief analyst at LVRG Research."Crypto markets took that as a relief signal, and bitcoin jumped back above $85,000 as bond yields slipped and investors became more willing to buy risk assets again."The yield relief did not last. The 10-year traded around 5.28%, close to Wednesday's peak, and the 30-year steadied at 5.62% after reaching its highest since 2002 during New York trading.Oil declining helped pause the bond selloff, and the dollar strengthened.This Is the Scenario 10x Research DescribedThe session is a direct test of a distinction Markus Thielen drew on Tuesday."When yields rise because the Fed is tightening, bitcoin suffers. When yields rise on fiscal and term-premium concerns, the picture flips," the 10x Research founder said, forecasting the 10-year reaching 6%.Wednesday removed part of the tightening argument. October hike odds had already fallen from about 71% to 50% after New York Fed President John Williams downplayed the urgency of raising rates, and a cooler PCE print pushed the expected next move to December.Long yields did not fall with it. That is the fiscal and term-premium component Thielen identified, and it is the part a softer inflation reading does not address. Thielen's argument rests on yields sitting below both nominal GDP growth of 6.56% and federal debt growth of roughly 8.5% annually since 2020.The Gap Between Headline and Core MattersHeadline PCE at 3.4% against core at 3.0% means food and energy added 40 basis points rather than subtracting.That is the opposite of the usual pattern when energy prices fall, and it reflects the oil move that ran through August and September. Brent rose about 14% in September before retreating to $96.43.If energy continues easing, headline converges toward core. If it reverses again, the headline figure the Fed watches alongside core moves the wrong way regardless of what underlying prices do.Micron Lifted AsiaTechnology carried the risk mood into the Asian session.Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.8% and S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei jumped 2.7% and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.2% after Micron Technology's upbeat forecast lifted chip stocks.Micron guided first quarter revenue to $60-63 billion against $56.77 billion expected, alongside a fourth quarter beat on revenue, EPS and cloud memory.The Kospi move is the notable one. It had fallen 19.3% across the third quarter, its steepest since the first quarter of 2020, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix down more than 5% on Monday alone. Micron's guidance applies to the DRAM market all three compete in.Alphabet gained 1.5% in extended trading as Google began rolling out Gemini 4 Argon, its new flagship AI model.What Would Give the Next Rally RoomA soft inflation print on its own was not enough to hold Bitcoin above $85,000 with the 10-year near 5.3%.A sustained drop in that yield is the move that would change it.The rally also lacks confirmation from flow data. CryptoQuant estimated Bitcoin's spot demand shrank by about 170,000 BTC over the 30 days to Tuesday, deteriorating from −145,000 BTC on September 11 while price rose. Futures open interest fell to 625,000 BTC on Wednesday, the lowest since January 1.Bitcoin remains roughly 12% above the $74,887 low struck on September 15 and 4% below its September 21 high of $87,300.Friday's non-farm payrolls report is the next release, with Kalshi pricing nearly 60% odds of a figure above 90,000 against Goldman Sachs at 80,000 and Bank of America at 60,000. ADP reported private payrolls rising 90,000 on Wednesday.

Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee said the company's Ethereum DAT currently holds 7% of ETH supply and could rise to 15% during this cycle. According to ChainCatcher, Lee made the remarks without providing additional details.

Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target price from $82,000 to $113,000, a 38% increase, and its Ethereum target from $2,240 to $3,028, up 35%.The bank expects cryptocurrency inflows to reach $5 billion over the next 12 months, with inflows recovering at a slower but steadier pace.The Flow Forecast Is Lower Than Last Quarter AloneUS spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $6.34 billion in net inflows in the third quarter, per SoSoValue. Ether funds added $3.05 billion.Citi's $5 billion covers twelve months.That implies either a definition narrower than ETF flows — possibly net new capital across the asset class rather than fund subscriptions — or an expectation that the pace slows substantially from here.The second reading has support. September ETF inflows of $2.65 billion were down about 25% from August's $3.52 billion, and Bitcoin funds recorded roughly $149 million of outflows on Wednesday, snapping a nine-day streak.Either way, the bank is forecasting a 38% price gain alongside modest flows, which means the target does not rest on demand volume. The Upgrade Follows the Move Rather Than Anticipating ItThe previous Bitcoin target of $82,000 sat below where the asset currently trades at roughly $83,500.Bitcoin gained 42.71% in the third quarter, its best third-quarter performance since 2017, and reached $87,300 on September 21.Raising a target after a 43% quarter is standard practice rather than a criticism, but it does mean the revision reflects what has happened more than a new view on what will.The $113,000 target sits about 35% above the current price and roughly 10% below the record above $126,000 reached in October last year.Ethereum Carries the Smaller Implied GainAt $3,028 against roughly $2,690, Citi's Ethereum target implies about 13% upside.Bitcoin's implies 35%.That ordering runs against the quarter just completed, when ether gained about 71% to Bitcoin's 42.71% — its best quarter since the first quarter of 2021.A bank forecasting Bitcoin to outperform ether over the next twelve months is taking the opposite side of the rotation currently underway. CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index has held above 60 for five consecutive days at 61/100, a level not reached in more than three months.The Macro Case Cuts Both WaysCiti's targets land against a bond market that has been the main constraint on crypto prices.The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.30% on Wednesday, its highest since 2002, and the 30-year touched 5.65%. Both reversed earlier declines that followed softer August PCE data showing headline inflation at 3.4% and core at 3%.Bitfinex analysts identify real yields as the specific pressure, with the 10-year inflation-adjusted yield climbing to 2.83% from 2.68% in the week to September 25.10x Research's Markus Thielen offers the counter-argument, forecasting the 10-year reaching 6% while noting the driver matters more than the level: "When yields rise because the Fed is tightening, bitcoin suffers. When yields rise on fiscal and term-premium concerns, the picture flips."A 38% Bitcoin gain over twelve months is consistent with the second scenario and difficult under the first.The Supply Picture Supports a Thin-Flow ThesisOne reading makes Citi's low flow forecast compatible with its price target.Glassnode's HODL Waves data shows long-term holders — coins unmoved for at least 155 days — at 80% of supply, an all-time high, up from 65% a year ago.Supply held that tightly means less selling pressure to absorb, so a given quantity of buying moves price further than it otherwise would.CryptoQuant's measure runs the other way, estimating spot demand shrank by about 170,000 BTC over the 30 days to Tuesday. The September rally leaned substantially on short liquidations rather than accumulation.Friday's non-farm payrolls report is the next macro test, with Kalshi pricing nearly 60% odds of a figure above 90,000 against Goldman Sachs at 80,000 and Bank of America at 60,000.

The US Dollar Index briefly climbed to 101.81, its highest level since May last year.The move reverses the decline that followed Wednesday's softer-than-expected August PCE data, when the index fell 15 basis points to 101.05.The Inflation Relief Lasted One SessionThe pattern matches what happened in bonds.The 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 5.20% after the PCE print before closing higher at 5.276%, having touched 5.30% — its highest since 2002. The 30-year declined to 5.54% before rising to 5.63%.Both the currency and the bond market gave back the same move on the same day.That consistency points to a driver the inflation data does not address. Softer prices reduce the case for further Fed tightening, and October hike odds fell to 47.1% from 70% about 48 hours earlier. The dollar strengthened regardless.

According to the announcement from Binance, the platform will continue its airdrop campaign for eligible users holding World Liberty Financial USD (USD1) starting from 2026-10-02 00:00 (UTC). The campaign will distribute rewards from a total pool of 150 million World Liberty Financial (WLFI) tokens and up to 2.5 million USD1 tokens. Rewards will be paid as weekly airdrops to USD1 holders every Friday, with Stage 1 running from 2026-10-02 00:00 (UTC) to 2026-10-16 00:00 (UTC) and Stage 2 running from 2026-10-16 00:00 (UTC) to 2026-10-30 00:00 (UTC). Stage 1 will allocate 75 million WLFI tokens, while Stage 2 will allocate 75 million WLFI tokens and up to 2.5 million USD1 tokens. Binance said it will update the Stage 2 campaign terms on or before 2026-10-16. The announcement also said rewards will begin accruing from 2026-10-02 00:00 (UTC) and will be distributed by 18:00 (UTC) every Friday in WLFI tokens. Eligible balances may be held in Spot, Funding, Margin, or USDⓈ-M Futures accounts, and users with USD1 in Binance Futures or Margin accounts may receive a 1.2x bonus multiplier if their Daily Open Interest on USD1 Futures pair(s) remains at a minimum of 300 USD1. Binance said the campaign uses hourly snapshots to determine qualifying balances and Daily Open Interest, with rewards calculated from the lowest captured balance each day.
Binance said the campaign will calculate rewards based on users’ qualifying USD1 balances, with balances treated as net assets after liabilities. USD1 acquired through borrowing other stablecoins will receive a 70% haircut after accounting for liabilities in Margin Accounts from other stablecoins, including USDT, USDC, U, RLUSD, and FDUSD. Rewards will be airdropped directly to eligible users’ Binance Spot Accounts, and sub-account rewards will be distributed to the Spot Account of the corresponding sub-account. The exchange said there is no individual cap on rewards, and users’ payouts will depend on their qualifying balance relative to the total qualifying balance of all eligible users and other factors. Binance also said users must complete account verification and be from an eligible jurisdiction to participate, while broker accounts are not eligible. The announcement listed several excluded countries and regions, including the United States of America and its territories, and said the list may change due to legal, regulatory, or other considerations. Binance added that users may be disqualified for dishonest behavior, tampering with program code, or other interference, and said it reserves the right to amend, suspend, extend, terminate, or cancel the campaign at its discretion.

SOL spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $11.1 million on September 30, according to SoSoValue data. According to Odaily, Fidelity Solana Fund ETF (FSOL) posted a net inflow of $2.77 million, bringing its cumulative net inflow to $234 million.
Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) saw a net outflow of $8.94 million, while its cumulative net inflow reached $1.225 billion. As of press time, SOL spot ETFs had total net assets of $1.906 billion, a SOL net asset ratio of 2.75%, and cumulative net inflows of $1.612 billion.

Assuming a close around $84,000, Bitcoin will end the third quarter about 44% higher — its best quarterly result since the first quarter of 2024, when it rose 68.7%, per Coinglass.Ether gained 70.9% over the three months, its strongest quarter since the first quarter of 2021, when it rose 160.7%.Both followed three consecutive down quarters.Ether Outperformed Bitcoin by a Wide MarginThe 70.9% against 44% is the detail worth sitting with.Ether has been the laggard through most of the cycle, and a quarter where it outpaces Bitcoin by 27 percentage points marks a change in leadership rather than a proportional lift.That fits the broader rotation. CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index has held above 60 for five consecutive days at 61/100, a level not reached in more than three months, and Bitcoin's share of total market value slipped to roughly 57% from 59.2% earlier in September.The fourth quarter has historically been Bitcoin's strongest. Since 2013 it has averaged a 77% gain with a median of 47.7% — though the gap between those two figures shows the average is pulled by a small number of extreme quarters.Long-Term Holders Now Control 80% of SupplyGlassnode's HODL Waves data shows long-term holders — coins unmoved for at least 155 days — at 80% of supply, an all-time high.That share has risen from 65% over the past year, a period in which Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to $60,000.The reading means accumulation continued through the drawdown rather than distribution. The 155-day threshold currently falls around late April, so coins last moved before then qualify.It sits against a more cautious signal from the same period. CryptoQuant estimates spot demand shrank by about 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, with growth in futures demand down 90% since September 14.Both can be true. Existing holders are not selling; new buyers are not arriving in size.The Day Itself Was a Round TripAugust PCE came in softer than forecast across all four measures.Headline rose 0.3% month over month against 0.4% expected, and 3.4% year over year against 3.7%. Core rose 0.2% against 0.3% expected, and 3% year over year against 3.3%.Bitcoin jumped more than 2% to above $85,500 within minutes. Within two hours it had returned to $84,000, with leveraged shorts squeezed out of their positions. It now sits at $83,500, down 0.4% over 24 hours.CME FedWatch showed October hike odds falling to 47.1%, from 70% about 48 hours earlier.The Methodology Change Is a Real CaveatThe PCE data was the first released under new Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmarking, which changed how certain components are measured.That is a reason to discount the beat rather than dismiss it. A methodology revision can produce a one-off level shift that does not reflect underlying prices, and the next print under the same framework is what establishes the trend.The data is also for August, and at 3.4% headline and 3% core it remains well above the Fed's 2% target.Yields Reversed Within HoursThe 10-year fell as low as 5.20% before closing 1.6 basis points higher at 5.276%. It reached 5.30% during the session, its highest since 2002.The 30-year declined to 5.54% before rising 3.6 basis points to 5.63%, having touched 5.65% — also a 24-year high."Those betting against 'the house' keep winning," wrote Jeff Gundlach.Oil is the driver behind that reversal. WTI rose more than 2%, with gasoline and diesel each up 4%. Refined products are what actually feed consumer inflation, and they moved harder than crude.Equities gave back gains too. The Nasdaq closed up 0.25% after being more than 1% higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow moving into the red.Real Yields Are the Specific HeadwindBitfinex analysts identify inflation-adjusted Treasury yields as the main pressure on Bitcoin.The 10-year real yield climbed to 2.83% from 2.68% in the week to September 25. A note offering nearly 3% after inflation raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.LMAX Group's Joel Kruger sees the opposite case if the trend holds. "If that headwind now eases alongside lower US yields, it could provide an additional tailwind for bitcoin and ETH by improving global financial conditions and reducing the relative appeal of holding cash in dollars," he said.Fitch Ratings' Olu Sonola noted inflation remains around 3% or higher. Truflation's Oliver Rust pointed to energy prices and tariffs as continuing sources of pressure.Micron Beat on Revenue and GuidanceMicron reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $54.23 billion against estimates of $51.1 billion, with adjusted EPS of $33.42 against forecasts of $33.61.First quarter 2027 revenue is guided to $61.5 billion against forecasts of $57 billion, with EPS at $38.15 against $35.40."As strong as fiscal 2026 was, we expect fiscal 2027 to be even better," said CEO Sanjay Mehrotra. "Industry demand has strengthened since our last earnings call, and we expect memory and storage supply-demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026."Shares rose 1.1% after hours. The guidance is the material part — it addresses the DRAM pricing question that determines whether the memory cycle extends.Three Other ItemsHut 8 insider filing. CEO Asher Genoot said a filing suggesting Chief Strategy Officer Michael Ho sold 1.5 million shares reflected collateral against borrowing rather than a sale. "Mike has not sold any shares since we started the company," Genoot said. HUT fell 4.8% in afternoon trading.Fed renovation report. The Office of Inspector General found no grounds to believe federal criminal law was violated in the $1.3 billion Eccles Building renovation, while noting management deficiencies. The finding removes one obstacle to Jerome Powell leaving the central bank, having remained a governor after his term as chair ended.Chicago PMI. The index jumped to 58.8 in September from 47.1, against forecasts of 51.2 — a possible preview of national ISM figures. It contributed to the yield reversal.

South Korea's Financial Services Commission has announced a draft revision to lower-level regulations related to the institutionalization of token securities. According to Odaily, the proposal would expand the range of securities eligible for tokenization to include traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and funds.Under the revision, traditional securities could be tokenized in addition to fragmented investment securities, including non-monetary trust beneficiary securities and investment contract securities. The draft would also clarify distributed ledger requirements for electronic securities rules, requiring participants to include an electronic registration institution and at least two account management institutions, while banning direct fees for distributed ledger use for electronic registration purposes.

According to the announcement from Binance, the Binance Starter Carnival has opened a new edition featuring Binance Stocks Welcome Rewards, with users able to complete eligible tasks or transfer in stocks to earn activity attempts and compete for a share of a $200,000-valued prize pool. The campaign includes rewards such as variants of NVDAB, MUB, or QQQB token vouchers, bStocks trading fee rebates, and Spot trading fee rebate vouchers, with rewards distributed on a first-come, first-served basis until the pool is exhausted. The Activity Period runs from 2026-10-01 08:00 (UTC) to 2026-10-30 23:59 (UTC). Under Promotion A, new Stocks users can earn one activity attempt by completing their first trade of at least $5 equivalent on Stocks trading pairs, while all users can earn three attempts by trading at least $10,000 equivalent on eligible Stocks trading pairs or on Stock Options. Each spin can result in fixed rewards, including token vouchers and trading fee rebate vouchers, with the announcement stating that the reward pool is limited and that unused attempts expire after the campaign ends. The body of the announcement also notes that only verified users who opt in through the landing page and complete the required tasks during the Activity Period are eligible for rewards.Promotion B covers stock transfer-ins and offers tiered USDC token bonuses from a 100,000 USDC total reward pool for users who transfer U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs into Binance during the Activity Period. The reward tiers are based on the first transfer-in value and range from 150 USDC for transfers of at least $10,000 to 12,000 USDC for transfers of at least $1,500,000. Binance states that users must submit a transfer-out instruction with their delivering broker, then file a transfer-in request in the app, which must be updated to version 3.19.0 or above to access the feature. The announcement says U.S. equity transfers generally require at least 14 business days, and rewards depend on successful settlement within the program period. It also says the reward tier is determined by the value snapshot before the first transfer-in request, that later transfers do not increase the tier, and that users must not transfer out or withdraw the equivalent amount of stocks within 90 days after crediting to qualify for the full bonus. Rewards are distributed every 30 days after the Activity Period ends based on the initial transfer volume.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $6.34 billion in net inflows in the third quarter, their strongest quarter of 2026, per SoSoValue.That reverses roughly $5 billion of net outflows in the second quarter, a swing of more than $11 billion between the two periods.Bitcoin gained 42.71% over the quarter, its strongest since the fourth quarter of 2024 and its best third-quarter performance since 2017, per CoinGlass.The Monthly Pattern Shows Momentum FadingThe quarter was front-loaded in its second half and is now decelerating.July delivered $172 million. August brought $3.52 billion. September closed with $2.65 billion — down about 25% from August.That ordering matters more than the quarterly total. A quarter that builds and then eases describes demand that arrived in response to price rather than demand that drove it.September also ended weakly. Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $149 million in net outflows on Wednesday, snapping a nine-day inflow streak that had attracted about $3.1 billion. The Flows Sit Against a Weaker Demand SignalETF inflows are one measure of spot demand, not the only one.CryptoQuant estimates Bitcoin's overall spot demand shrank by about 170,000 BTC over the 30 days to Tuesday, a figure that deteriorated from −145,000 BTC on September 11 while price rose.The two readings are compatible. ETFs absorbed capital while other holders distributed, meaning the regulated vehicles were buying from sellers elsewhere rather than adding to net demand.Glassnode's HODL Waves data adds a third piece. Long-term holders — coins unmoved for at least 155 days — now account for 80% of supply, an all-time high, up from 65% a year ago.Existing holders are not selling. New demand is arriving through ETFs. Neither of those explains a 42.71% quarterly gain on its own, and short liquidations supplied a substantial part of the September move.Ether Funds Delivered a Larger Proportional ReversalUS spot Ether ETFs attracted about $3.05 billion in Q3 after roughly $714 million of outflows in Q2.Ether gained about 71% over the quarter, its best since the first quarter of 2021.The ratio is the interesting part. Ether's ETF complex drew about 48% of what Bitcoin's did while delivering 66% more price appreciation — so ETF flows explain less of ether's move than of Bitcoin's.That is consistent with the broader rotation. CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index has held above 60 for five consecutive days at 61/100, a level not reached in more than three months.Altcoin Funds Are Building Smaller PositionsXRP ETFs attracted $308 million in Q3, lifting cumulative net inflows to $1.79 billion.Solana ETFs drew $272 million in September and Zcash ETFs $246 million.The Zcash figure is the standout relative to its market size. ZEC gained 130% over 30 days and reached a record near $1,488, and a single US fund has now pulled in substantial flows in its first months — including a $47 million day in mid-September when the broader complex was losing money.Privacy has been the quarter's most durable sector trade, and the ETF flows confirm institutional participation rather than purely retail speculation.What the Fourth Quarter FacesBitcoin's fourth quarter has historically been its strongest. Since 2013 it has averaged a 77% gain with a median of 47.7%, though the gap between those figures shows the average is pulled by a small number of extreme quarters.The macro setup is less supportive than the seasonal record.The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.30% on Wednesday, its highest since 2002, and the 30-year touched 5.65%. Both reversed earlier declines that followed softer-than-expected August PCE data, which showed headline inflation at 3.4% and core at 3%.Bitfinex analysts identify real yields as the specific pressure, with the 10-year inflation-adjusted yield climbing to 2.83% from 2.68% in the week to September 25.Friday's non-farm payrolls report is the next test, with Kalshi pricing nearly 60% odds of a figure above 90,000 against Goldman Sachs at 80,000 and Bank of America at 60,000.

According to the announcement from Binance, Binance Futures will close all positions and carry out automatic settlement for the USDⓈ-M PROMPTUSDT, PUMPBTCUSDT and 1000000BOBUSDT perpetual contracts on 2026-10-05 09:00 (UTC). The contracts will be delisted after settlement is completed. Binance said users should close any open positions before the delisting time to avoid automatic settlement. New non-reduce only orders for the affected contracts will not be allowed starting from 2026-10-05 08:30 (UTC). The notice said the decision follows periodic reviews of futures contracts based on factors including trading volume and liquidity, network stability and safety, new regulatory requirements, changes in token supply and tokenomics, project ownership structure, team commitment and development activity, responsiveness to due diligence requests, and evidence of unethical or fraudulent conduct or negligence.
The announcement also outlined how liquidation will be handled during the final hour before settlement. Binance said the Futures Insurance Fund will not be used to support liquidation for the affected contracts during that period. Any liquidation triggered in the final hour will be executed as a single Immediate or Cancel order, or IOCO, and sent to the market in one attempt. If the remaining assets in a user’s account are sufficient to meet the required Maintenance Margin after realized losses and any applicable Liquidation Clearance Fee, the liquidation will stop. If the IOCO does not fully reduce the position to the level needed to satisfy Maintenance Margin requirements, any unfilled portion will be resolved through the Auto-Deleveraging process. Binance also said additional protective measures may be applied without further announcement, including changes to maximum leverage, position value, maintenance margin in each margin tier, funding rates, price index constituents, and the Last Price Protected mechanism used to update the Mark Price.

Grayscale said its Zcash ETF, ZCSH, has completed the previously announced 3-for-1 share split, which took effect before the U.S. stock market opened on September 30. Shares began trading on a split-adjusted basis that day. According to Odaily, shareholders of record at the close on September 28 received two additional shares for each pre-split share, converting one pre-split share into three post-split shares. Grayscale said the split does not change the total value of shareholders' investments, and the fund's net asset value per share was adjusted to about one-third of its pre-split level. ZCSH continues to trade on NYSE Arca, with its ticker and CUSIP unchanged.

According to the announcement from Binance, Binance Academy has replenished the Bitcoin Learn & Earn rewards for the month of October 2026, allowing eligible new users to complete an optional quiz and earn 0.00001 BTC in token vouchers. The activity period begins on 2026-10-01 00:00 (UTC) and continues until further notice. The program is available only to new users who registered on Binance after 2026-10-01 00:00 (UTC) and complete the Learn & Earn quiz with all correct answers. Rewards are limited to the first 5,000 new users each month and are distributed on a first-come, first-served basis. Each user may complete the Learn & Earn only once and claim a maximum of one reward. Once all rewards for the month are distributed, participation will close for that month, and the rewards will be renewed each month through future announcements.
Eligibility and reward details: Qualified users must complete KYC to receive rewards from this activity. The token voucher reward will be distributed within 48 hours to users who pass the quiz, and users may check their rewards via Profile > Rewards Hub. The token voucher is valid for 14 days from the day of distribution. Binance also stated that illegally bulk registered accounts and sub-accounts are not eligible to participate or receive rewards. The announcement notes that the actual value of the reward may change due to market fluctuation, and participation ends once all rewards are distributed. The program is presented as part of Binance Academy’s Bitcoin Learn & Earn offering for new users learning the basics of Bitcoin.

The team behind Official Trump (TRUMP) said the top 185 holders on its leaderboard will get a gala dinner with President Donald Trump on November 22 at Trump National in Washington, D.C. according to BeInCrypto, with the top 29 also eligible for a VIP reception and the top 4 VIPs set to receive 18K gold Trump watches. Holders must register separately, and the site says there will be no private meetings with the president.

Bitwise said its U.S. spot NEAR ETP, the Bitwise NEAR ETF (NRR), has reached $52.8 million in assets under management. According to ChainCatcher, the fund recorded $13.2 million in net inflows yesterday and $20.1 million in trading volume.
Bitwise previously said it plans to stake the NEAR tokens held by the fund internally to maximize participation in NEAR's average staking reward of about 5%.

MetaMask said it is responding to a security incident affecting part of its infrastructure and has not found any direct threat to MetaMask wallets. According to Foresight News, the company is coordinating with customers, partners, and security advisers and is proactively exiting affected validator nodes in its non-custodial staking operations.
Lido said MetaMask's actions include removing its Ethereum validator nodes from the Lido protocol. The relevant validator nodes have begun the exit process and are expected to complete exiting by October 7, 2026, though they will not be fully withdrawn. stETH holders do not need to take any action. ETH exiting validator nodes operated by MetaMask Staking is expected to return to the protocol gradually as the validators complete the exit, withdrawal, and re-entry cycle. Due to long queue times, the process is expected to take about 45 days.

MetaMask said some of its infrastructure was affected by a security incident, but it has not found signs of a direct threat to MetaMask wallets. According to Odaily, the company is coordinating with affected customers, partners, and security advisers as a precaution and is proactively exiting impacted validator nodes in its non-custodial staking business. MetaMask said the incident involves infrastructure and does not mean its wallets currently face a security risk. It said it will provide further updates in due course.

On Oct 01, 2026, 10:42 AM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, BNB has crossed the 770 USDT benchmark and is now trading at 770.299988 USDT, with a narrowed 0.22% increase in 24 hours.

Crypto analyst Ali said on X that whale positions across major assets diverged over the past week while the broader crypto market moved sideways. According to Odaily, Bitcoin whale holdings fell by about 30,000 BTC, while Ethereum whales added about 60,000 ETH and XRP whale holdings remained near 3.9 billion XRP.

Michael Saylor said he wants Strive and every well-managed issuer of Bitcoin-powered "Digital Credit" to succeed, arguing in a post on X that firms built on the same Bitcoin foundation can compete for individual investments while strengthening one another's long-term opportunity. He framed the structure in three layers: Bitcoin as "Digital Capital," instruments like Strategy's STRC and Strive's SATA as "Digital Credit," and treasury equities such as MSTR and ASST as "Digital Equity." The biggest opportunity, he said, lies outside the industry: citing SIFMA, he noted global equity market capitalization reached $157.8 trillion and global fixed-income debt $160.7 trillion at the end of 2025, meaning one-tenth of one percent of either market is roughly $160 billion — the scale against which these young categories should be measured.
Saylor described the opportunity as a "triple amplifier." First, appreciation of Digital Capital: when any company raises capital to buy Bitcoin, it adds demand for a supply-constrained asset, so a successful acquisition by Strive can be constructive for Strategy and vice versa, since a stronger Bitcoin price lifts the value held on every Bitcoin balance sheet. Second, adoption of Digital Credit: multiple credible issuers can build trust in a new category faster than one alone, and as understanding and liquidity improve, investors may demand a smaller premium — narrowing spreads and lowering financing costs across qualified issuers, though he cautioned Bitcoin pays no coupon and any margin must be earned through disciplined management. Third, recognition of Digital Equity: as more firms show the model works across market conditions, valuations and multiples such as mNAV can expand, though he stressed a premium must be earned and more issuers do not automatically lift multiples.
The amplifiers reinforce one another, Saylor said, with benefits extending beyond any single transaction to more analyst coverage, institutional research and trading infrastructure. He argued many investors want category exposure but cannot concentrate it in one company, so additional credible issuers unlock capital that would otherwise stay out — noting that on March 11, 2026, Strive disclosed a $50 million purchase of STRC, illustrating how issuers can become customers of one another. Likening the ecosystem to Ford and Standard Oil, where complementary businesses expanded the whole system, he said Digital Capital, Credit, Equity, Money and Derivatives together can make digital assets more useful. He cautioned that shared foundations make standards matter — a weak issuer can damage confidence across the category — and that the positive-sum opportunity depends on sound capitalization, prudent liquidity and transparent disclosure, concluding: "When we build on Bitcoin, we have an interest in one another's success."

A Hyperliquid trader is holding a long position of 8,065 ZEC with an unrealized loss of $379,700, according to Onchain Lens. The account has recorded cumulative losses of $1.4 million, paid $87,700 in funding fees, and has a liquidation price of $1,363.9. Two hours earlier, a $3.11 million ZEC position in the same account was liquidated, resulting in a loss of $190,100.

Bitcoin ended Q3 up 44% — its best quarter since Q1 2024 — and ether gained 70.9%, its strongest since Q1 2021. Three labor data points this week all read firm: ADP 90,000, jobless claims 197,000 (below 200,000 for the first time in weeks), Chicago PMI 58.8 vs 51.2 forecast — collectively tilting Friday's NFP toward the higher end of the 60,000-100,000+ range. Wednesday's PCE pop to $85,500 gave back within hours as the 10-year held near 5.3% and DXY climbed to 101.81. Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 on a thin-flow thesis backed by LTH supply at an all-time 80%. Q3 Bitcoin ETFs drew $6.34B, reversing Q2's $5B outflows. Micron beat and guided Q1 2027 to $61.5B vs $57B.Bitcoin Gives Back Its PCE Pop as the 10-Year Holds Near 5.3%Bitcoin surged above $85,500 on Wednesday's softer PCE print before returning to $83,700 as Treasury yields reversed — the 10-year closed 1.6bps higher at 5.276% after touching 5.30%, its highest since 2002, and the 30-year settled at 5.63%. The pattern is the direct test of Thielen's framework: softer PCE reduced October hike odds from 70% to 47.1%, but long yields didn't follow — confirming the fiscal and term-premium driver that a softer inflation reading cannot address. Oil is what reversed the brief relief: WTI +2% with gasoline and diesel each up 4%. The 10-year real yield climbed to 2.83% from 2.68% in the week to September 25. Friday's NFP is the next test with Kalshi pricing 60% odds above 90,000 against Goldman's 80,000 and BofA's 60,000.Jobless Claims Fall to 197,000, Holding Near Historic Lows Before Friday's PayrollsInitial claims for the week ending September 26 came in at 197,000 — below the 200,000 forecast and the prior week's revised 198,000 — completing a firm set of labor data ahead of Friday's NFP. Claims below 200,000 describe a tight labor market: employers are not laying off staff, which says nothing about hiring pace but establishes the market isn't deteriorating through firings. Three releases now point the same direction: ADP 90,000 private payrolls (vs 70,000 expected), Chicago PMI 58.8 (vs 51.2 forecast), and claims 197,000. The combination tilts toward the higher end of Friday's forecast range and complicates Wednesday's inflation-driven rate repricing — a labor market holding firm while inflation sits above 3% is not a configuration that supports cutting, it's the one that kept the Fed hiking. BofA's 60,000 NFP forecast has the least data support of the three estimates heading into Friday.Citi Lifts Bitcoin Target to $113,000 While Forecasting Just $5 Billion of InflowsCitigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000 (+38%) and Ethereum from $2,240 to $3,028 (+35%), while forecasting only $5B in crypto inflows — less than what Bitcoin ETFs alone drew in Q3. The thin-flow thesis rests on Glassnode's LTH supply at an all-time 80% of circulating supply (up from 65% a year ago): less selling pressure means a given quantity of buying moves price further. Citi's Bitcoin target implies 35% upside vs 13% for Ethereum — the opposite of Q3's actual performance where ETH outpaced Bitcoin by 27 percentage points. Real yields at 2.83% are the macro headwind; Thielen's fiscal-driver framework is the bull case the target implicitly depends on. The prior $82,000 target already sat below where Bitcoin trades, making the revision more reflective than anticipatory.Bitcoin Closes Its Best Quarter Since Early 2024 as Ether Gains 70.9%Bitcoin ended Q3 up ~44% — its best quarter since Q1 2024's 68.7% — and ether gained 70.9%, its strongest since Q1 2021, both following three consecutive down quarters. LTH supply hit an all-time 80% of circulating supply as the 155-day threshold now captures coins unmoved since late April — accumulation continued through the drawdown. The quarter ended on a round trip: PCE pushed Bitcoin above $85,500 before it returned to $83,500 within two hours as oil jumped and yields reversed. Micron beat on revenue ($54.23B vs $51.1B) and guided Q1 2027 to $61.5B vs $57B — CEO Mehrotra: "Industry demand has strengthened since our last earnings call." Chicago PMI jumped to 58.8 from 47.1, possibly previewing national ISM. Hut 8 CEO clarified a 1.5M share filing reflected collateral borrowing, not a sale.Bitcoin ETFs Take $6.34 Billion in Q3 After $5 Billion of Q2 OutflowsQ3 Bitcoin ETF inflows of $6.34B reversed Q2's $5B outflows — an $11B+ swing — but monthly momentum is decelerating: July $172M, August $3.52B, September $2.65B, with the streak snapping Wednesday on $149M in outflows. ETF inflows captured one slice of demand while CryptoQuant's overall spot demand metric fell 170,000 BTC over 30 days — ETFs were buying from sellers elsewhere rather than adding to net demand. Ether ETFs drew $3.05B in Q3 while delivering 70.9% vs Bitcoin's 44% — flows explain less of ether's move, consistent with broader altcoin rotation. Altcoin fund highlights: XRP ETFs $308M in Q3 ($1.79B cumulative), Solana $272M in September, Zcash $246M in September. Q4 historically averages 77% for Bitcoin (median 47.7%) — the macro setup (10-year at 5.3%, real yields at 2.83%, DXY at 101.81) is less supportive than the seasonal record implies.

Passengers on a jet carrying more than 170 people to Tel Aviv tackled a pilot after he stabbed his colleague and tried to crash the plane, according to Bloomberg.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a serious security incident.

Hyperliquid Labs plans to unstake about $320 million worth of HYPE for monthly team token unlocks. According to ChainCatcher, the tokens will be sold through over-the-counter trading to an institution.

Ripple and Cardano struck major partnerships in Brazil, expanding blockchain use in the country’s regulated financial and energy sectors. According to BeInCrypto, CSD BR began testing XRP Ledger as a parallel record-keeping system for investment funds, while Cardano Foundation unveiled two applications with Petrobras for sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel tracking. Ripple said the pilot mirrors BTG Pactual fund shares onchain, and Cardano said the projects support emissions reporting. ADA traded near $0.2549, up 0.9% in 24 hours.

On Oct 01, 2026, 10:55 AM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, Bitcoin has crossed the 84,000 USDT benchmark and is now trading at 84,050.398438 USDT, with a narrowed 0.12% increase in 24 hours.

Illinois has agreed to postpone its 0.2% crypto tax for six months, according to industry groups that negotiated the delay. According to NS3.AI, a judge must approve the agreement before the postponement takes effect. The tax was scheduled to begin on January 1 and would apply to crypto activity involving firms with more than $100,000 in receipts.

A wallet bought 1,486.37 ETH on-chain at $2,710.23 each at 3 a.m., with the purchase valued at $4.028 million. According to Odaily, the address is now down $33,000.

TRON has released GreatVoyage-v4.8.2.3 (Anaxagoras), a new version that updates smart contract storage access, improves BN128 pairing performance, and optimizes the parsing process for JSON data generated by nodes. According to Foresight News, the upgrade is intended to improve node efficiency and stability.
The release is mandatory, and TRON urged node operators to complete the update as soon as possible to avoid affecting block synchronization. After upgrading, related nodes can report deployment status so the community can track network-wide progress. Details on version changes, GPG signature verification, and deployment methods are available in the official release notes and upgrade documentation.

According to CNBC, the Pentagon is tapping Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, defense technology entrepreneur and Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to identify the military capabilities, technologies and weapons the U.S. may need in future wars. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the initiative, called Project Meridian, will spend 120 days looking years and decades ahead at how warfare could change and what capabilities the U.S. military will need to maintain a technological edge. Hegseth said Project Meridian is not about developing new strategies or policies, but about identifying the domains the U.S. must conquer and the capabilities it must master.

Crypto analyst Ai said Cardano (ADA) futures demand is cooling, with open interest falling 9% over the past week from $1.99 billion to $1.81 billion. According to Odaily, Ai said whales have also taken profits, reducing holdings by about 90 million ADA since September 20, adding to recent selling pressure.
Ai added that ADA’s daily chart flashed a sell signal on September 26 and has since fallen 10%, with the pullback possibly not over. The analyst said $0.24 is a key mid-channel support level, while a break below it could send ADA toward the lower end of the channel near $0.21. If $0.21 holds, Ai said it could become the next buying opportunity, with an upside target near $0.28 at the top of the channel.

Bitcoin and XRP gave back Wednesday's early gains after a cooler-than-expected inflation reading was offset by rising oil prices. According to NS3.AI, core PCE prices rose 0.2% in August, below the 0.3% forecast, while Brent crude climbed 3% on the day.
Stronger-than-forecast economic growth and consumer spending also complicated the outlook for interest rates. Bitcoin settled near $84,000, and XRP traded near $1.50 after their initial gains faded.

According to the announcement from Binance, Binance Wallet will launch the CT Trading Competition on Binance Alpha, with eligible users able to trade Concrete (CT) in Binance Wallet (Keyless) or via Binance Alpha to receive token rewards. The promotion is open to any user eligible to trade Binance Alpha tokens, and rankings will be based on total purchase volume of CT during the Promotion Period. The first Promotion Period runs from 2026-10-01 13:00 (UTC) to 2026-10-08 13:00 (UTC), and the second runs from 2026-10-08 13:00 (UTC) to 2026-10-15 13:00 (UTC). The top 2,000 users by CT purchase volume during the Promotion Period will share 258,000 CT tokens equally, which equals 129 CT per user. Binance said the competition is designed to place greater emphasis on early trading and consistent participation through two boost mechanisms: the Early Bird Boost Multiplier and the Rising Trader Boost Multiplier.
Early Bird Boost Multiplier and Ranking Rules
The Early Bird Boost Multiplier gives higher weight to earlier trades during the Promotion Period. Daily Effective Trading Volume is calculated as Actual Trading Volume multiplied by the Early Bird Boost Multiplier, and total competition volume is the sum of daily effective trading volume across the Promotion Period. The multiplier starts at 3.0x for Day 1 and Day 2, then declines to 2.5x on Day 3, 2.0x on Day 4, 1.8x on Day 5, 1.3x on Day 6, and 1.0x on Day 7. Binance also introduced the Rising Trader Boost Multiplier for users who, as of three days before the Promotion Period begins, have won rewards in fewer than 3 previous Binance Wallet Alpha trading competitions. Eligible Rising Traders receive a 1.2x boost on actual trading volume during the Promotion Period, subject to a cap. If both boosts apply, Effective Trading Volume is calculated using both the Early Bird and Rising Trader formulas, and final rankings are based on total Effective Trading Volume during the Promotion Period. Rewards will be claimable in CT tokens by eligible users before 2026-10-29 13:00:00 (UTC), and claims must be completed within 14 days after rewards become claimable.

A wallet linked to Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin transferred 133,298 ETH to a new wallet five hours ago. According to Odaily, the transfer was worth $356 million.

DogeOS opened its public testnet to developers on Wednesday, giving builders an EVM-compatible environment for applications built around Dogecoin. According to NS3.AI, developers can use the testnet to build and test finance, gaming and consumer applications ahead of an eventual mainnet launch without changing Dogecoin's underlying Layer-1 network. DogeOS said more developer tools, integrations and projects are expected as the testnet develops.

Meta listed CEO Mark Zuckerberg as a researcher on tax forms, cutting its tax bill by about $355 million, while the IRS says the company got it wrong. According to BeInCrypto, Meta counted $4.1 billion of Zuckerberg’s 2012 and 2013 stock option income as research wages, and its filing lists $18.74 billion in tax benefits as uncertain. Separately, Elon Musk exercised 303.96 million Tesla options on June 16, creating about $116 billion in paper gains, but Treasury rules say wages qualify only for employees who do research or directly support them.

According to CNBC, China began its seven-day National Day holiday on Thursday after President Xi Jinping used his annual opening speech to intensify Beijing's message on Taiwan. Speaking at the Great Hall of the People on Wednesday, Xi said Beijing must “resolutely crack down on 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces, oppose interference from external forces” and “advance the great cause of national reunification.” The wording was tougher than in last year’s speech, when he said Beijing “firmly opposes” independence activities.
The shift came days after Xi’s state visit to Washington, where he urged President Donald Trump to outright “oppose” Taiwan independence and limit Washington’s support for the self-ruled island. Allan von Mehren, China economist at Danske Bank, said it had been speculated for more than a year that Xi would take this step, but that it was the first time it had been seen. The Trump administration paused a $14 billion Taiwan arms package in May and has taken a less supportive tone toward the island over the past year.
China’s Ministry of Transport projects about 2.13 billion trips during the holiday week, or roughly 300 million a day. Daily border crossings are forecast to average about 2.16 million. Bookings for domestic flights over 2,000 kilometers are up about 14%, and international ticket bookings are up 22.5% from a year earlier, according to official figures. Hong Kong authorities expect 7.4 million passenger trips in and out of the city over the week, while Macau anticipates more than 5 million trips.

Lion Group, a Nasdaq-listed company, sold all of its SOL holdings and part of its BTC holdings on September 29 to increase its HYPE position. According to Foresight News, the proceeds were used to buy about 38,102 HYPE.
After the adjustment, Lion Group held about 232,900 HYPE, valued at about $20.1 million. The company did not sell any of its previously held HYPE.