Be honest. Part of you bought $BTC this month because October always goes up.
Everyone knows the nickname. Uptober. It’s the one calendar story crypto never had to defend. Then you open your screen this week and Bitcoin is sitting near $80K, in the red for the month, more than a third below its all-time high.
Here’s the part that stuck with me. In the second-to-last week of September, spot Bitcoin funds took in $2.4B. That was their best week since last October. The crowd showed up early for the story. Then on Oct 14, the same funds lost $261M in a single day.
Nothing about the calendar changed. The Fed did. It raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more this year. Two hot inflation reports this week made another hike look more likely. The decision is on Oct 28.
My read: Uptober was never a reason. It was a mood. And in a week like this one, a mood loses to a rate decision.
That doesn’t mean the dip is over, or that it’s about to get worse. It means the thing to watch changed. Forget the month. Watch whether the fund outflows stop, and what the Fed does on the 28th. If the money comes back before the Fed speaks, I’m wrong, and the calendar story was alive after all.
What I don’t know: whether the buyers near $80K are new money, or just traders closing their own bets.
Would you rather trust a nickname or a number?
High risk. NFA, DYOR.
#Bitcoin #Uptober #MarketAnalysis #ZeroHunter
Everyone knows the nickname. Uptober. It’s the one calendar story crypto never had to defend. Then you open your screen this week and Bitcoin is sitting near $80K, in the red for the month, more than a third below its all-time high.
Here’s the part that stuck with me. In the second-to-last week of September, spot Bitcoin funds took in $2.4B. That was their best week since last October. The crowd showed up early for the story. Then on Oct 14, the same funds lost $261M in a single day.
Nothing about the calendar changed. The Fed did. It raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more this year. Two hot inflation reports this week made another hike look more likely. The decision is on Oct 28.
My read: Uptober was never a reason. It was a mood. And in a week like this one, a mood loses to a rate decision.
That doesn’t mean the dip is over, or that it’s about to get worse. It means the thing to watch changed. Forget the month. Watch whether the fund outflows stop, and what the Fed does on the 28th. If the money comes back before the Fed speaks, I’m wrong, and the calendar story was alive after all.
What I don’t know: whether the buyers near $80K are new money, or just traders closing their own bets.
Would you rather trust a nickname or a number?
High risk. NFA, DYOR.
#Bitcoin #Uptober #MarketAnalysis #ZeroHunter