XRP price has mostly struggled in 2026, but pro-Ripple lawyer Bill Morgan believes the token may have a difficult time falling all the way back to $1 unless Bitcoin suffers a much larger decline.
Morgan pointed to the strong directional relationship between XRP and Bitcoin, arguing that the correlation between the two assets has been around 0.88 over both the last 30 and 90 days.
That means XRP and BTC have generally been moving in the same direction, even though the XRP price has performed much worse on a relative basis.
That difference is where Morgan thinks the more interesting question begins.
XRP Has Lagged Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana
The discussion started after ChartNerd argued that Bitcoin and Bitcoin dominance remain major forces behind XRP’s price action.
He noted that XRP has underperformed Bitcoin for much of the year, with its strongest periods of relative strength often arriving near later stages of Bitcoin rallies.
Morgan agreed that the directional correlation with BTC is kind of tricky to ignore.
Aye. BTC.D has a huge part to play here. In comparison to other alts performance, hard to say. We’ve underperformed and lagged BTC majority of the year, that’s for sure. We witness periods of outperformance, but the most violent rallies typicall occur near the ending of BTC tops, not bottoms. https://t.co/6lrjTvWWHw
— ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) October 12, 2026
But he argued that correlation alone does not explain why XRP has performed comparatively poorly against Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana over the past six months.
That is an important distinction.
A correlation of 0.88 means the two assets have often moved in the same direction. It does not mean they have delivered similar returns.
XRP can fall when Bitcoin falls and still lag BTC significantly over a longer period.
Morgan believes that relative weakness needs a separate explanation, one that technical charts alone may not fully provide.
Read also: Grok AI Predicts a Stunning End to 2026 for XRP
Why Bill Morgan Struggles to See XRP at $1 Again
Morgan’s argument is that XRP’s extended underperformance could eventually create its own support.
If XRP continues trading at a much weaker relative valuation than other major cryptocurrencies, investors may begin looking at it as a value opportunity.
That is why he said he struggles to see XRP returning to $1 unless Bitcoin itself suffers a major decline.
It’s easy to say. Just look at XRP compared to bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana over the last six months. This does not change the directional correlation reality so it calls for another explanation as to why XRP has performed comparatively poorly over the last six months. I’m not sure that the charts can give the explanation. This is why I struggle to see XRP falling to $1.00 again unless there is a significant fall in the price of bitcoin. The market may be speculative but it is not totally irrational and you could expect it to look for value in solid cryptos that are comparatively underperforming other cryptos.
— bill morgan (@Belisarius2020) October 12, 2026
With XRP recently trading around the mid-$1 range, a move to $1 would represent another substantial drop.
For that to happen under Morgan’s framework, Bitcoin would probably need to break considerably lower as well.
The logic is not that XRP cannot reach $1.
It is that the combination of strong BTC correlation and months of relative underperformance makes such a move harder to justify without another broad market selloff.
My Take
Morgan raises a useful point, but correlation alone cannot create a price floor.
XRP could still underperform Bitcoin further even if the two continue moving in the same general direction.
At the same time, relative valuation can become important after a long stretch of weakness.
If Bitcoin stabilizes and investors begin rotating toward large-cap altcoins that have lagged, XRP could benefit disproportionately.
That makes Bitcoin’s next major move especially important.
If BTC remains around current levels or recovers, XRP falling all the way toward $1 would become harder to reconcile with the broader market structure.
If Bitcoin suffers another deep correction, however, the strong correlation Morgan mentioned means $1 could quickly return to the conversation.
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The post XRP Price May Not Fall to $1 Again Unless Bitcoin Does This appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.