Four years. That is the entire script most traders still follow. History suggests the script is worth reading, but not memorizing.
→ Each halving cut new supply in half. 2012 led to a 93x peak. 2016 produced roughly 30x. 2020 delivered about 8x. Same mechanism, shrinking multiple.
→ Every cycle peak has been followed by a drawdown of 70% or more. 2015 fell 86%. 2018 fell 84%. 2022 fell 77%. The bear phase is not an anomaly. It is part of the structure.
→ The 2024 halving added a variable that did not exist before. Spot ETFs absorbed billions in demand while issuance kept falling. That is a genuinely new input, not a repeat of prior cycles.
→ On-chain data still offers the clearest map. MVRV Z-score near historical lows and price below the 200-week moving average have marked accumulation zones in every cycle so far.
The cycle is not dead. It is maturing. Amplitude compresses as market cap grows. The edge no longer comes from predicting exact prices. It comes from recognizing where you are and sizing positions accordingly.
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→ Each halving cut new supply in half. 2012 led to a 93x peak. 2016 produced roughly 30x. 2020 delivered about 8x. Same mechanism, shrinking multiple.
→ Every cycle peak has been followed by a drawdown of 70% or more. 2015 fell 86%. 2018 fell 84%. 2022 fell 77%. The bear phase is not an anomaly. It is part of the structure.
→ The 2024 halving added a variable that did not exist before. Spot ETFs absorbed billions in demand while issuance kept falling. That is a genuinely new input, not a repeat of prior cycles.
→ On-chain data still offers the clearest map. MVRV Z-score near historical lows and price below the 200-week moving average have marked accumulation zones in every cycle so far.
The cycle is not dead. It is maturing. Amplitude compresses as market cap grows. The edge no longer comes from predicting exact prices. It comes from recognizing where you are and sizing positions accordingly.
Like if this was helpful
#TradingTips #CryptoEducation #Crypto #Investing #CryptoMarket
📱 Follow @PoorCryptoMan