#fedratewatch
#FedRateWatch — Is This the Start of a New Hiking Cycle?
The September FOMC meeting (Sept 15-16) has flipped from "will they cut" to "will they hike" in just a few weeks. August core CPI came in hot, and CME FedWatch now prices roughly 90% odds of a 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% — the first hike since 2023. Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole tone, sticky inflation, and Iran-driven energy costs pushed the bar down for action. I don't see this as one-and-done — Barclays and BNP Paribas are already penciling in follow-through hikes into December and beyond, so the dot plot released alongside this decision matters as much as the headline move.
Market impact: BTC has been resilient near $80K on strong ETF inflows, but it's more liquidity-sensitive than gold — a hawkish surprise could hit it harder short-term, though some argue the hike is more about anchoring yields than real tightening, which could limit downside. Gold faces headwind from higher real yields but geopolitical demand cushions it. Tech stocks are the most rate-sensitive of the three, given valuation compression risk.
My plan: trimming leverage into the decision, keeping core BTC spot position, and watching the dot plot for December signal before adding back risk.
#FedRateWatch #FOMC #BTC
#FedRateWatch — Is This the Start of a New Hiking Cycle?
The September FOMC meeting (Sept 15-16) has flipped from "will they cut" to "will they hike" in just a few weeks. August core CPI came in hot, and CME FedWatch now prices roughly 90% odds of a 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% — the first hike since 2023. Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole tone, sticky inflation, and Iran-driven energy costs pushed the bar down for action. I don't see this as one-and-done — Barclays and BNP Paribas are already penciling in follow-through hikes into December and beyond, so the dot plot released alongside this decision matters as much as the headline move.
Market impact: BTC has been resilient near $80K on strong ETF inflows, but it's more liquidity-sensitive than gold — a hawkish surprise could hit it harder short-term, though some argue the hike is more about anchoring yields than real tightening, which could limit downside. Gold faces headwind from higher real yields but geopolitical demand cushions it. Tech stocks are the most rate-sensitive of the three, given valuation compression risk.
My plan: trimming leverage into the decision, keeping core BTC spot position, and watching the dot plot for December signal before adding back risk.
#FedRateWatch #FOMC #BTC