CryptoQuant Quicktake

The Cointime Economics thesis teaches that coins do not leave cold wallets without a clear reason. With Bitcoin at the $75,872 mark, the BTC: Active Supply vs. Net Inflow indicator flashes a market structure alert: part of the network took advantage of the recent rally and allocated capital toward aggressive profit-taking.

THE INDICATOR DYNAMICS

Who forms this Active Supply? The filter excludes exchanges and miners, isolating only the Smart Money: wallets with more than 100 transactions per month. The alert rule sums the deposits into exchanges and divides them by this Active Supply, revealing the exact percentage of institutional capital focused on liquidation.

THE ANATOMY OF REALIZATION

Through the indicator, we recorded 134.1k addresses in the Active Supply cohort. The strength of the movement is validated by moving averages: the current data directionally broke both the SMA-7 (132.2k) and the SMA-14 (131.5k), confirming an atypical and accelerated peak in movement. The institutional vault has been opened.

TRACKING THE INTENT

The gravity is revealed in the destination of the capital: 58k addresses depositing into OKX and 28.1k into Binance. Applying the indicator's rule, more than 64% (86.1k out of 134.1k, approx. $6.5 billion) of all relevant institutional activity was directed to these exchanges. It is a lethal correlation: Smart Money moved funds to capture the liquidity generated by the $78K euphoria.

CONCLUSION

Part of the market prices in a structural search for profit, discarding scenarios of accumulation or DeFi. With Active Supply accelerating above averages in sync with deposits from market giants, the probability of a supply shock and strong correction is extremely high. For those betting on an upward move with a short-term focus, the current structure demands immediate capital protection.

Written by GugaOnChain

The Cointime Economics thesis teaches that coins do not leave cold wallets without a clear reason. With Bitcoin at the $75,872 mark, the BTC: Active Supply vs. Net Inflow indicator flashes a market structure alert: part of the network took advantage of the recent rally and allocated capital toward aggressive profit-taking.

THE INDICATOR DYNAMICS

Who forms this Active Supply? The filter excludes exchanges and miners, isolating only the Smart Money: wallets with more than 100 transactions per month. The alert rule sums the deposits into exchanges and divides them by this Active Supply, revealing the exact percentage of institutional capital focused on liquidation.

THE ANATOMY OF REALIZATION

Through the indicator, we recorded 134.1k addresses in the Active Supply cohort. The strength of the movement is validated by moving averages: the current data directionally broke both the SMA-7 (132.2k) and the SMA-14 (131.5k), confirming an atypical and accelerated peak in movement. The institutional vault has been opened.

TRACKING THE INTENT

The gravity is revealed in the destination of the capital: 58k addresses depositing into OKX and 28.1k into Binance. Applying the indicator's rule, more than 64% (86.1k out of 134.1k, approx. $6.5 billion) of all relevant institutional activity was directed to these exchanges. It is a lethal correlation: Smart Money moved funds to capture the liquidity generated by the $78K euphoria.

CONCLUSION

The market is pricing in a structural search for profit, discarding accumulation or DeFi scenarios. With Active Supply accelerating above the averages in sync with deposits from market giants, the probability of a supply shock and a sharp correction is extremely high. For those betting on the long side with a short-term focus, the current structure demands immediate capital protection.

Written by GugaOnChain

Throughout this entire cycle, Ethereum has faced unusually heavy selling pressure on derivatives markets.

Net taker volume, which measures the difference between buy and sell market order volumes in the order book on derivatives exchanges, remained almost consistently negative.

This was particularly visible when ETH attempted to break into a new all time high above $4,000 in December 2024. At that time, net taker volume fell to -$511 million.

It became even more extreme when ETH later printed its all time high just below $5,000, as sell-side pressure heavily dominated with -$568 million in net taker volume.

Today, however, the dynamic looks very different.

Since March, buy-side volumes have finally taken control, with +$102 million recorded today.

The last time Ethereum saw such a strong level of buying pressure on derivatives markets was during the previous bear market in 2022, when ETH was trading around the $1,000 area.

This shift suggests that market positioning may be changing materially. After a cycle largely defined by aggressive sell pressure into strength, buyers now appear increasingly willing to absorb supply and chase upside. If this trend persists, it could mark the early stages of a stronger structural recovery for Ethereum.

If this trend manages to persist and buyers continue to absorb selling pressure, it could mark the early stages of a stronger structural recovery for Ethereum.

Written by Darkfost

The 365-day Simple Moving Average of Ethereum Exchange Netflow on Binance has recently plummeted to its lowest level since May 2024, considering the current market conditions in April 2026.

Historically, this specific metric has acted as a highly reliable leading indicator for major macroeconomic price movements. As visible on the chart, previous instances where the yearly moving average of netflow reached extreme bottoms and subsequently began to reverse upwards perfectly coincided with the inception of massive Ethereum bull rallies.

This repeating pattern strongly suggests an ongoing accumulation phase. When netflows hit extreme lows on a long-term moving average, it typically indicates that investors are withdrawing their assets from exchanges for long-term holding, thereby drastically reducing immediate sell pressure in the market. If historical trends are to repeat, the current bottoming out could be the fundamental groundwork for the next major upward macro trend for Ethereum. Market participants should closely monitor this metric for a decisive upward pivot as a confirmation of a new bullish cycle.

Written by CryptoOnchain

STH SOPR, prezentat aici ca o medie lunară pentru a evidenția tendința de bază, este din nou pe punctul de a testa nivelul de breakeven (SOPR = 1)

SOPR (Rata Profitului din Cheltuieli) este un indicator care măsoară raportul de profit sau pierdere realizat atunci când un UTXO este cheltuit.

Aceasta înseamnă că, după recuperarea recentă a prețului BTC, acum cu +26% de la minimul din 6 februarie, STH-urile se confruntă cu o decizie importantă, deoarece STH SOPR a atins 0.998 :

• Ieșiți de pe piață la breakeven după luni de durere

• Continuați să mențineți în speranța realizării profitului

Grafica arată o activitate puternică din partea participanților de retail, dar acest tip de intrare singur nu poate conduce prețul. Acesta generează în principal volum. Transferurile în intervalul 10K–100K XRP au un impact neutru asupra prețului.

Transferurile de peste 100K și 1M XRP cresc semnificativ în anumite perioade. Cu toate acestea, lipsa de consistență sugerează că balenele nu acționează într-un mod stabil. Cu alte cuvinte, nu există o presiune direcțională clară pe piață.

Nu există o corelație clară între preț și intrări. Când intrările cresc, prețul nu scade întotdeauna. La fel, când intrările slăbesc, prețul nu crește neapărat. Acest lucru indică faptul că nu toate monedele care intră sunt vândute, sau că există lichiditate suficientă care absoarbe oferta.

Indicatorul Metcalfe Divergence pentru Ethereum dezvăluie formarea unui adevărat "Launchpad" organic. Spre deosebire de scenariile de epuizare, unde activul avansează în mijlocul golirii rețelei, ETH crește (+5.2% pentru săptămână) ancorat de o tracțiune reală puternică. Numărul de Adrese Foarte Active (2.3669k) a traversat direcțional medii mobile pe termen scurt (SMA-7: 2.3388k și SMA-14: 2.3332k). Adoptarea avansează mai repede decât prețul, dovedind că impulsul are combustibil organic și validează Legea lui Metcalfe în practică.

Despite a 2.66% price decline on the candlestick chart, multiple on-chain metrics and technical indicators are painting a strongly bullish picture for Ethereum.

Technical Analysis:

The Point and Figure (PnF) chart has confirmed a Double Top Buy signal — a classic bullish breakout pattern that historically precedes significant upward price movement. This signal combined with the current price dip suggests smart money accumulation is underway.

On-Chain Analysis:

Exchange reserves have decreased significantly indicating investors are moving ETH to cold wallets reducing available selling supply. Exchange net flow remains negative confirming more ETH is leaving exchanges than entering — a clear accumulation signal.

Ethereum block size has surged 34% reflecting extraordinary growth in network activity and demand for ETH block space. While net flow showed a slight 6% increase suggesting minor selling pressure the overall on-chain data remains overwhelmingly bullish.

Conclusion:

The convergence of a PnF Double Top Buy signal declining exchange reserves negative net flow and 34% block size increase strongly suggests the current price decline is a temporary dip and accumulation opportunity. Medium to long term outlook for ETH remains strongly bullish.

Written by Abdullah Zia

Recenta mișcare a Bitcoin continuă să arate o structură a pieței dominată în principal de derivate. Pe **17 aprilie**, lichidările short futures BTC au atins **525,872 milioane USD**. În plus, **453,930 milioane USD** din acel total a fost concentrat între **13:00 și 15:00 UTC**, reprezentând **86,32%** din toate lichidările înregistrate în acea fereastră. În același timp, lichidările long au crescut la **213,118 milioane USD**, aducând lichidările totale BTC la **738,990 milioane USD**.

Cu toate acestea, punctul cel mai relevant nu este doar magnitudinea lichidărilor, ci ceea ce ele dezvăluie despre structura pieței. De la **13 aprilie**, volumul futures a crescut de la **23,438 miliarde USD** la **24,881 miliarde USD**, o creștere de **6,16%**. Pe aceeași perioadă, volumul spot a crescut de la **50,216 BTC** la **54,590 BTC**, echivalent cu un câștig de **8,71%**.

As negotiations between Iran and the U.S. had reportedly made significant progress, Iran announced yesterday the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels.

The announcement had an immediate impact on financial markets, particularly on derivatives markets.

This renewed confidence led some investors to quickly and aggressively position long on Ethereum.

Taker Buy Volume, which tracks market buy orders on derivatives markets, surged sharply during the hour following the announcement.

Binance alone recorded more than $1.72B in Ethereum derivatives buy volume within a single hour, making the figure particularly notable.

The price rally that followed then triggered a significant short squeeze on Binance, further amplifying the upward move initially created by aggressive buying activity.

During that same hour, roughly $24M in short positions were liquidated almost instantly, highlighting how fast and powerful the move was.

It is also worth noting that funding rates were deeply negative at -0.004%, indicating that the majority of investors were positioned short on Ethereum at the time.

More broadly, this reflects how sensitive investors currently are to headlines and developments related to the conflict between Iran and the U.S.

That sensitivity tends to make markets increasingly unstable and erratic, making aggressive leverage particularly dangerous, as seen during this move.

Written by Darkfost

Conform WuBlockchain, minerii de Bitcoin listați public au vândut peste 32.000 BTC în T1 2026, marcând cea mai mare ieșire trimestrială înregistrată. Aceasta reflectă o schimbare structurală mai degrabă decât vânzări din panică. După reducerea din 2024, recompensele pentru blocuri au scăzut de la 6.25 la 3.125 BTC, în timp ce rata de hash a continuat să crească, comprimând rentabilitatea. Cu prețul hash-ului sub nivelurile de echilibru, mulți mineri au fost nevoiți să prioritizeze fluxul de numerar în detrimentul acumulării. În plus, capitalul este reallocat către infrastructura AI și HPC, accelerând vânzările strategice de BTC.

Ratele de finanțare tocmai au atins -0.0296% pe toate bursele.

Asta înseamnă că majoritatea traderilor sunt scurți pe

Bitcoin în acest moment, și ei plătesc lungi în fiecare

oră doar pentru a menține aceste poziții deschise.

Toată lumea așteaptă scăderea.

Dar iată problema cu asta. Când sunt atât de mulți

oamenii sunt de aceeași parte a unei tranzacții, piața

are obiceiul de a-i pedepsi. Cu cât Bitcoin

ține, cu cât mai multe shorts sângerează. Și când în cele din urmă

se sparge și se închide, prețul crește rapid și puternic.

Există încă un pool de lichiditate de aproximativ $73K care

The Bitcoin: MVRV Ratio and Realized Price (SMA-30-365) indicator guides the on-chain structure of the movement. With the current MVRV (1.3856) positioned above its short moving average (SMA-30: 1.2947), the intraday traction gains validity. However, the distance relative to the macro line (SMA-365: 1.8620) rules out the risk of a systemic euphoria top, keeping the cost basis (Realized Price) at a safe US$ 54,244. The market aggression momentum, validating this rise by marking 1.1247 and surpassing its SMA-7 of 1.0433, clearly endorses the current buying climax on the leading exchange in global market share, through the Bitcoin: Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Binance indicator.

PRICE ACTION

Analyzing the price action, we observe the breakout of the ascending channel resistance on the daily chart and, by checking the RSI at 67.85 — right on the threshold of the overbought region (RSI: 70) — we identify a stretched market, with little room to continue advancing and with a high probability of a correction (pullback) in the coming days. It also becomes clear that the best time to enter BTC would not be at this resistance breakout, but rather at the bottom of the correction.

CONCLUSION

From the perspective of a pessimistic scenario, due to some still questionable points in the agreement between the US and Iran, in addition to the continuous tension between Israel and Lebanon, one cannot rule out the possibility that, in a potential correction, the asset returns to the channel support, in the region between US$ 70 thousand and US$ 65 thousand. The momentum brought relief to the market, but constant monitoring remains the master key.

Written by GugaOnChain

Datele de la CryptoQuant arată că Premiumul Pieței Fondului Bitcoin a rămas în mare parte neutru, chiar dacă prețul a experimentat o volatilitate și o recuperare semnificativă.

Pe parcursul anului 2023, premiumul a tranzacționat profund negativ, indicând o cerere instituțională limitată și o expunere la fonduri la prețuri reduse în raport cu prețul spot. Aceasta s-a aliniat cu un mediu mai larg de evitare a riscurilor în piețele financiare.

Pe măsură ce Bitcoin a trecut în 2024 și dincolo de acesta, premiumul s-a normalizat treptat, revenind spre linia zero. Cu toate acestea, această recuperare nu s-a transformat într-un teritoriu pozitiv sustenabil.

1. Dovezi On-Chain: Șocul ofertei & Dominanța balenelor

Pe 14 aprilie, a apărut un punct de date crucial: 69,359 BTC a fost mutat de pe burse într-o singură zi. Această ieșire masivă indică faptul că balenele își mută activele în stocuri reci, reducând drastic presiunea imediată de vânzare.

Acest lucru este validat suplimentar de Dimensiunea Medie a Ordinelor Spot. Din septembrie 2024 (când BTC a crescut de la 59k $ la 109k $), fiecare etapă majoră de creștere a fost însoțită de o creștere a dimensiunilor medii ale ordinelor. Creșterea recentă în acest metric dovedește că nu este FOMO de retail; este acumulare instituțională. Când ordine mari sunt plasate și monedele părăsesc bursele simultan, aceasta confirmă cumpărarea cu o convingere mare.

From late 2022 through 2023, Bitcoin miners were a persistent source of sell-side pressure. CryptoQuant's Miner Netflow Total recorded single outflow events reaching -22,500 BTC as operators liquidated holdings to cover fiat-denominated costs during compressed-margin conditions. This consistent supply acted as a structural ceiling on price recovery throughout that period.

The April 2024 halving changed this materially. Miner Netflow has remained significantly below 2022–23 levels for over 18 consecutive months — currently reading +825.5 BTC. This is not a one-day snapshot. The duration alone confirms a sustained regime change in miner-driven supply pressure, not a temporary behavioral shift.

Three structural factors explain why miners have maintained lower selling pressure for this long: the halving eliminated the least efficient operators, reducing aggregate cost-basis across the network; institutional miners have adopted hedging strategies that reduce spot liquidation; and a BTC price well above most miners' production cost removes the urgency to sell. The Fund Market Premium holding near neutral at +0.2 further confirms miners are operating in a healthier price environment than 2022–23.

Risk note: miners always sell eventually — this is a business, not ideology. Sustained low selling pressure is a supply-side signal only. Demand-side confirmation through ETF inflows and stablecoin deployment is still needed before a complete bullish thesis is formed.

Written by Zakariya Sharif

De la începutul lunii aprilie, diferite clase de deținători de Bitcoin au acumulat sau vândut deținerile lor.

În mod remarcabil, un grup cunoscut sub numele de 'rechini'—investitori care dețin între 100 și 1.000 BTC—au acumulat constant BTC într-un ritm alarmant. De la începutul lunii, au cumpărat peste 650.000 de unități, corespunzând nivelurilor văzute ultima dată spre sfârșitul lunii ianuarie.

Interesant este că ritmul de acumulare nu încetinește. Începând de joi, au cumpărat peste 89k BTC. Acțiunile lor au fost esențiale pentru ultima tendință ascendentă, deoarece absorb oferta excesivă pe care o varsă cealaltă grupare.

Datele de la CryptoQuant arată că Premiumul Pieței Fondurilor Bitcoin a rămas în mare parte neutru, chiar și în condițiile în care prețul a experimentat volatilitate semnificativă și recuperare.

În tot anul 2023, premiumul a fost tranzacționat profund negativ, indicând o cerere instituțională limitată și o expunere la fonduri discountate în raport cu prețul spot. Acest lucru s-a aliniat cu un mediu mai larg de aversiune la risc pe piețele financiare.

Pe măsură ce Bitcoin a avansat în 2024 și dincolo de acesta, premiumul s-a normalizat treptat, revenind către linia zero. Cu toate acestea, această recuperare nu a trecut în teritoriu pozitiv susținut.

Datele recente de la Binance dezvăluie o schimbare semnificativă și structurală în comportamentul investitorilor Bitcoin. Media mobilă simplă (SMA) de 100 de zile a ieșirii nete de schimb (Medie) a atins 7.5, marcând cel mai înalt nivel din ultimul an.

Simultan, SMA de 50 de zile a fluxului net de schimb (Total) a scăzut la -797, atingând cel mai scăzut nivel din iulie 2023. Aceste dinamici pe lanț izbitoare coincid direct cu creșterea impresionantă a prețului Bitcoin de la 63.000 USD la 77.000 USD în ultima lună.

Combinația de fluxuri nete profund negative și de ieșiri medii în creștere sugerează puternic că investitorii mari (balii) și jucătorii instituționali acumulează agresiv BTC. Prin retragerea unor loturi mari de Bitcoin în stocare la rece pentru a fi păstrate pe termen lung, ei creează o strângere de lichiditate pe schimb. Această reducere semnificativă a rezervelor disponibile pe schimb duce la un „șoc de ofertă”. Cu presiunea de vânzare minimizată și cererea rămânând robustă, această configurare pe lanț acționează ca un catalizator puternic pentru a susține momentul optimist actual și a sprijini niveluri mai ridicate ale prețului.

Bitcoin's MVRV ratio, one of the most widely tracked on-chain valuation metrics, has pulled back to approximately 2.2 after reaching a local peak of 2.44 in mid-May, when Bitcoin briefly tested the $110,000 level. This cooldown is a structurally healthy development and does not indicate cycle deterioration.

Looking at the full picture from CryptoQuant data: the MVRV ratio bottomed at approximately 1.75 in early April, corresponding with Bitcoin's price trough near $75,000. From that point, both price and MVRV recovered sharply — a textbook illustration of how deeply discounted realized value conditions tend to resolve over a medium-term horizon.

The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization, the aggregate cost basis of all coins based on the last time each coin moved on-chain. A ratio of 2.2 means the average Bitcoin holder is currently sitting on approximately 120% unrealized profit. Historically, the market does not reach peak cycle conditions until MVRV sustains levels above 3.5.

The May peak at 2.44 briefly triggered short-term profit-taking, which is reflected in the price pullback from $110K to the current $105K range. However, the ratio remains well within the mid-cycle accumulation zone and has not entered the danger zone associated with prior cycle tops (2021 peak: MVRV ~3.96; 2017 peak: MVRV ~5.0+).

The tight correlation between price and MVRV visible throughout this period confirms that on-chain realized value is tracking closely with spot market behavior — a signal of an orderly, data-driven market rather than speculative excess.

Interpretation: The current MVRV reading at 2.2, combined with the recent rejection from 2.44, suggests the market is digesting gains from the April-to-May rally. For long-term participants, this represents continued mid-cycle conditions. For shorter-term analysts, the 2.3–2.5 zone is emerging as near-term resistance.

Written by Zakariya Sharif