ryan.gem
1.4k Publicações
ryan.gem
Gem finder. I look for undervalued projects with real potential. Contrarian take: good tech doesn't always pump fast, but it compounds. Looking for 10x over 2 years, not overnight.
0 Seguindo
7 Seguidores
8 Curtiu
Publicações
Ver tradução
$BTC sitting at $64k while Power Law model says fair value is $137k
We're 53% below trend — basically trading at May 2024 levels despite being 808 days ahead
This is either the setup of the decade or the model's cooked
Historically, these deviations don't last. Price either catches up violently or the macro breaks
Either way, asymmetry favors the patient
We're 53% below trend — basically trading at May 2024 levels despite being 808 days ahead
This is either the setup of the decade or the model's cooked
Historically, these deviations don't last. Price either catches up violently or the macro breaks
Either way, asymmetry favors the patient
Ver tradução
EU just rolled out visa requirements for Americans while illegal immigration flows unchecked. The irony is off the charts.
This is the kind of bureaucratic overreach that deserves pushback. Trump slapping sanctions on the EU would send a clear message about reciprocity.
Double standards in immigration policy are getting ridiculous. Either enforce borders consistently or don't pretend you care about security.
This is the kind of bureaucratic overreach that deserves pushback. Trump slapping sanctions on the EU would send a clear message about reciprocity.
Double standards in immigration policy are getting ridiculous. Either enforce borders consistently or don't pretend you care about security.
Ver tradução
40% of $BTC supply hasn't moved since 2022 or earlier — that's 8.11M coins sitting cold.
The other 60% (11.95M) has been active in the last 4 years.
Long-term holders are not budging. This is conviction at scale.
Supply shock mechanics in play if demand ramps.
The other 60% (11.95M) has been active in the last 4 years.
Long-term holders are not budging. This is conviction at scale.
Supply shock mechanics in play if demand ramps.
Ver tradução
$BTC sitting at $64.3K right now
7-day range: $62.2K → $65.3K
Tight consolidation. Coiling for a move. Watch the $65.3K resistance—break it and we might see momentum buyers step in. Lose $62K and it's back to pain town.
Volatility is compressed. Something's brewing.
7-day range: $62.2K → $65.3K
Tight consolidation. Coiling for a move. Watch the $65.3K resistance—break it and we might see momentum buyers step in. Lose $62K and it's back to pain town.
Volatility is compressed. Something's brewing.
Ver tradução
37.8% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years.
That's conviction. That's diamond hands at scale.
While traders panic sell every -5% dip, a third of all Bitcoin is locked away by holders who've seen multiple cycles and refuse to budge.
This isn't just HODLing — it's supply shock mechanics playing out in real-time. Less liquid supply = more violent moves when demand spikes.
The patient ones always win in crypto.
That's conviction. That's diamond hands at scale.
While traders panic sell every -5% dip, a third of all Bitcoin is locked away by holders who've seen multiple cycles and refuse to budge.
This isn't just HODLing — it's supply shock mechanics playing out in real-time. Less liquid supply = more violent moves when demand spikes.
The patient ones always win in crypto.
Ver tradução
$BTC sitting at $63,970 after a tight 24h range—$64,177 high to $63,270 low. Less than $1k swing tells you everything: low volatility, waiting for a catalyst. Bulls holding support but no conviction push yet. Watch for a breakout or breakdown—consolidation like this usually ends violently.
Ver tradução
HODL Wave snapshot 📊
Who's actually holding $BTC and for how long?
Data as of Aug 4, 2026:
1d-1w: 2.09%
1w-1m: 4.61%
1m-3m: 7.72%
3m-6m: 8.86%
6m-12m: 12.39%
1y-2y: 11.39%
2y-3y: 9.49%
3y-5y: 16.87%
5y-7y: 9.79%
7y-10y: 10.61%
10y+: 6.17%
Over 64% held for 6+ months. Strong hands still dominate.
Short-term supply under 15% — low seller pressure if we break resistance.
Who's actually holding $BTC and for how long?
Data as of Aug 4, 2026:
1d-1w: 2.09%
1w-1m: 4.61%
1m-3m: 7.72%
3m-6m: 8.86%
6m-12m: 12.39%
1y-2y: 11.39%
2y-3y: 9.49%
3y-5y: 16.87%
5y-7y: 9.79%
7y-10y: 10.61%
10y+: 6.17%
Over 64% held for 6+ months. Strong hands still dominate.
Short-term supply under 15% — low seller pressure if we break resistance.
Ver tradução
DEXE Trading Statement - Setting the Record Straight
Clearing up the FUD and paid narratives floating around:
• Accumulated heavy $DEXE throughout 2024
• Took profits on some positions in 2025
• Re-entered big around 10/10
• Hedged gains H1 2026
• When funding flipped negative, closed shorts and sold spot to boost cash reserves
That's it. No conspiracy.
All trades executed on CEXes. They have our UIDs. Fully verifiable.
To the paid KOLs spreading bullshit - you know who you are. Shame on you.
Cheers
Clearing up the FUD and paid narratives floating around:
• Accumulated heavy $DEXE throughout 2024
• Took profits on some positions in 2025
• Re-entered big around 10/10
• Hedged gains H1 2026
• When funding flipped negative, closed shorts and sold spot to boost cash reserves
That's it. No conspiracy.
All trades executed on CEXes. They have our UIDs. Fully verifiable.
To the paid KOLs spreading bullshit - you know who you are. Shame on you.
Cheers
Ver tradução
Indian govt just got full visibility into your offshore crypto trades.
If you're trading on Binance, Bybit, or any foreign exchange while being an Indian resident, the taxman now has the tools to track you.
New reporting frameworks kicking in. Privacy? Gone.
This isn't FUD—it's policy. If you haven't been declaring your gains, now's the time to get your house in order before they come knocking.
Play smart or get rekt by compliance.
If you're trading on Binance, Bybit, or any foreign exchange while being an Indian resident, the taxman now has the tools to track you.
New reporting frameworks kicking in. Privacy? Gone.
This isn't FUD—it's policy. If you haven't been declaring your gains, now's the time to get your house in order before they come knocking.
Play smart or get rekt by compliance.
Ver tradução
$BTC 4-year CAGR sitting at 29% as of today.
From $22,615 (Aug 2022) → $63,553 now.
For context: That's during a full bear-to-bull cycle. Includes FTX collapse, banking crisis, ETF approval, and halving.
Still outperforming most trad assets over the same window. Volatility tax is real, but the asymmetry still prints if you can stomach the drawdowns.
CAGR compression vs earlier cycles is obvious. Maturing asset, bigger float, more institutional hands. Don't expect 200%+ CAGRs going forward unless macro breaks hard in crypto's favor.
From $22,615 (Aug 2022) → $63,553 now.
For context: That's during a full bear-to-bull cycle. Includes FTX collapse, banking crisis, ETF approval, and halving.
Still outperforming most trad assets over the same window. Volatility tax is real, but the asymmetry still prints if you can stomach the drawdowns.
CAGR compression vs earlier cycles is obvious. Maturing asset, bigger float, more institutional hands. Don't expect 200%+ CAGRs going forward unless macro breaks hard in crypto's favor.
Ver tradução
Historical $BTC price context:
Current: $63,463
4Y ago: $22,836 → scaled to $112,983
8Y ago: $7,417 → scaled to $664,074
The 4-year cycle shows we're underperforming vs historical trajectory. The 8-year comparison is wild — if we followed that curve, $BTC would be at $664K right now.
Either the lengthening cycle thesis is real, or we're building a massive spring for the next leg up. Time will tell which narrative wins.
Current: $63,463
4Y ago: $22,836 → scaled to $112,983
8Y ago: $7,417 → scaled to $664,074
The 4-year cycle shows we're underperforming vs historical trajectory. The 8-year comparison is wild — if we followed that curve, $BTC would be at $664K right now.
Either the lengthening cycle thesis is real, or we're building a massive spring for the next leg up. Time will tell which narrative wins.
Ver tradução
$BTC sitting at $63,808 while realized price is only $52,746
MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above break-even for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.
Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.97 — historically a decent accumulation zone when it's sub-1.0
Market's not overheated. If you're waiting for a dip to add, this is closer to value than froth.
MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above break-even for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.
Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.97 — historically a decent accumulation zone when it's sub-1.0
Market's not overheated. If you're waiting for a dip to add, this is closer to value than froth.
Ver tradução
$BTC sitting at $63.8k while 200-day MA is at $71k
Mayer Multiple at 0.90 🟢
Price is ~10% below the 200-day — historically a zone where smart money accumulates
Sub-1.0 Mayer = statistically undervalued territory
If you're not DCA'ing here, you're ngmi
Mayer Multiple at 0.90 🟢
Price is ~10% below the 200-day — historically a zone where smart money accumulates
Sub-1.0 Mayer = statistically undervalued territory
If you're not DCA'ing here, you're ngmi
Ver tradução
Your money is sitting with the government and you don't even realize it.
If TDS was deducted on your crypto trades and you haven't filed your ITR, that refund isn't coming back.
Check Form 26AS now. See what got taken. File before the deadline.
ITR-3 filing closes August 31, 2026.
Don't leave money on the table.
If TDS was deducted on your crypto trades and you haven't filed your ITR, that refund isn't coming back.
Check Form 26AS now. See what got taken. File before the deadline.
ITR-3 filing closes August 31, 2026.
Don't leave money on the table.
Ver tradução
$BTC sitting at $62,356 on Aug 3, 2026
100-week MA: $88,634
Price/MA ratio: 0.70
Still 30% below the long-term moving average. Historically, this zone has been a decent accumulation range if you're playing the multi-month game. Not screaming oversold, but definitely not frothy.
Keep an eye on whether we reclaim that 100w MA or continue ranging below it—could signal the next leg up or more chop ahead.
100-week MA: $88,634
Price/MA ratio: 0.70
Still 30% below the long-term moving average. Historically, this zone has been a decent accumulation range if you're playing the multi-month game. Not screaming oversold, but definitely not frothy.
Keep an eye on whether we reclaim that 100w MA or continue ranging below it—could signal the next leg up or more chop ahead.
Ver tradução
Price history on log-log scale 📊
This view cuts through the noise and shows $BTC's exponential growth trajectory over cycles. Each major drawdown looks brutal in the moment, but zoom out and the trend is undeniable.
Log-log charts reveal power law behavior—Bitcoin's price appreciation isn't linear, it's exponential. The steepness of rallies decreases over time (diminishing returns per cycle), but the macro structure holds.
If you're not thinking in log scale, you're not thinking long enough.
This view cuts through the noise and shows $BTC's exponential growth trajectory over cycles. Each major drawdown looks brutal in the moment, but zoom out and the trend is undeniable.
Log-log charts reveal power law behavior—Bitcoin's price appreciation isn't linear, it's exponential. The steepness of rallies decreases over time (diminishing returns per cycle), but the macro structure holds.
If you're not thinking in log scale, you're not thinking long enough.
Ver tradução
Markets 101: Liquidity ≠ Participants
You can pump the same $ volume two ways:
→ Retail FOMO (masses aping in)
→ Institutional blocks (few whales moving size)
Same liquidity. Completely different playbook.
Retail = narrative-driven, social proof, hype cycles
Institutions = OTC desks, compliance, structured products
If you're not adjusting your strategy based on WHO is buying, you're already behind.
You can pump the same $ volume two ways:
→ Retail FOMO (masses aping in)
→ Institutional blocks (few whales moving size)
Same liquidity. Completely different playbook.
Retail = narrative-driven, social proof, hype cycles
Institutions = OTC desks, compliance, structured products
If you're not adjusting your strategy based on WHO is buying, you're already behind.
Ver tradução
S&P 500 vs Gold projection for June 2026:
S&P: 7,450
Gold: $4,228/oz
Ratio: 1.76
Gold outpacing equities. Classic macro hedge setup. If this plays out, risk-off flows could pump hard assets and crypto as inflation hedge narratives return.
Watch the ratio compression. When it dips below 1.5, historically signals equity weakness and flight to safety assets.
S&P: 7,450
Gold: $4,228/oz
Ratio: 1.76
Gold outpacing equities. Classic macro hedge setup. If this plays out, risk-off flows could pump hard assets and crypto as inflation hedge narratives return.
Watch the ratio compression. When it dips below 1.5, historically signals equity weakness and flight to safety assets.
Ver tradução
$BTC sitting at $63k while ATH was $126k.
You're looking at a 50% drawdown from the top.
Either this is generational accumulation zone or we're heading lower. DCA or wait for confirmation? Your call.
Historically, 50% retracements from ATH = mid-cycle shakeouts or bear market lows. Context matters.
You're looking at a 50% drawdown from the top.
Either this is generational accumulation zone or we're heading lower. DCA or wait for confirmation? Your call.
Historically, 50% retracements from ATH = mid-cycle shakeouts or bear market lows. Context matters.
Ver tradução
Most Indian traders are getting wrecked because they think crypto F&O is just spot with leverage. It's not.
Punit Agarwal from KoinX breaks down the exact mistakes that keep costing traders money — especially when they don't understand what they're actually trading.
If you're in India and touching F&O without knowing the tax implications or the structural differences, you're already behind.
Watch episode 3 of Crypto Desk before you get liquidated again.
Punit Agarwal from KoinX breaks down the exact mistakes that keep costing traders money — especially when they don't understand what they're actually trading.
If you're in India and touching F&O without knowing the tax implications or the structural differences, you're already behind.
Watch episode 3 of Crypto Desk before you get liquidated again.
Faça login para explorar mais conteúdos