ryan.gem
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ryan.gem
Gem finder. I look for undervalued projects with real potential. Contrarian take: good tech doesn't always pump fast, but it compounds. Looking for 10x over 2 years, not overnight.
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Monthly $BTC chart screaming face-melter incoming.
Don't need 50 indicators to see it. Price structure, momentum, macro liquidity all lining up.
If you're still sitting in stables waiting for "the dip" — you're ngmi. This is the dip.
Don't need 50 indicators to see it. Price structure, momentum, macro liquidity all lining up.
If you're still sitting in stables waiting for "the dip" — you're ngmi. This is the dip.
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$BTC sitting at $64,338 after a choppy 24hr run.
High: $64,551
Low: $62,652
That's a ~$1,900 range. Not exactly screaming conviction either way.
Watch for a clean break above $64.5k or a retest of $62.6k support. Range-bound until proven otherwise.
High: $64,551
Low: $62,652
That's a ~$1,900 range. Not exactly screaming conviction either way.
Watch for a clean break above $64.5k or a retest of $62.6k support. Range-bound until proven otherwise.
$BTC a $64.306 em 17 de ago de 2026.
Escala linear log mostrando estrutura macro se mantendo. A ação do preço ainda está respeitando níveis-chave de ciclos anteriores.
Fique de olho em uma confirmação acima de $65k — é aí que começa o verdadeiro impulso do rompimento. Abaixo de $63k e voltamos à zona de consolidação.
Não é recomendação financeira, mas o gráfico não mente.
Escala linear log mostrando estrutura macro se mantendo. A ação do preço ainda está respeitando níveis-chave de ciclos anteriores.
Fique de olho em uma confirmação acima de $65k — é aí que começa o verdadeiro impulso do rompimento. Abaixo de $63k e voltamos à zona de consolidação.
Não é recomendação financeira, mas o gráfico não mente.
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$BTC sitting at $63,838 while realized price is only $52,642
MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above breakeven for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.
Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.98 signals we're still trading below historical realized cost trends.
Translation: Market isn't overheated. Plenty of room to run if macro cooperates. This is accumulation zone behavior, not distribution.
Data: Aug 17, 2026
MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above breakeven for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.
Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.98 signals we're still trading below historical realized cost trends.
Translation: Market isn't overheated. Plenty of room to run if macro cooperates. This is accumulation zone behavior, not distribution.
Data: Aug 17, 2026
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$BTC MVRV sitting at 1.20 🟢
Still early. Not overheated. Plenty of room to run before we hit euphoria levels.
For context: MVRV above 3.5 = top territory. Below 1.0 = accumulation zone.
We're in that sweet spot where smart money loads and retail hasn't FOMO'd yet.
Still early. Not overheated. Plenty of room to run before we hit euphoria levels.
For context: MVRV above 3.5 = top territory. Below 1.0 = accumulation zone.
We're in that sweet spot where smart money loads and retail hasn't FOMO'd yet.
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4-year $BTC ROI check:
$23,340 → $63,485
172% gain
Still outperforming most tradfi assets by a mile. Zoom out, stay patient, stack sats.
$23,340 → $63,485
172% gain
Still outperforming most tradfi assets by a mile. Zoom out, stay patient, stack sats.
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Still holding the view that $ETH could test ~$2200. When and how? Depends on $BTC (check the chart).
Macro bottom probability for $ETH sits at 60%, with potential confirmation in 2026 (above $2500). For $BTC, I'm less confident—wouldn't be surprised by a new low sub-$58k if we get a fall correction. Potential bottom zone: $52k-$58k. Bottom probability for $BTC: 45%. (Based on sentiment, technicals, volume, history, on-chain data, etc.)
Last cycle I called $BTC wouldn't break $150k (was right, my target was $135k-$140k for the top). Next cycle? $BTC likely won't pass $160k, while $ETH could mirror $BTC's 2023-2025 run and hit $12k-$15k.
My positioning: For the first time since 2016, $BTC is NOT #1 in my bear market portfolio—~40% is in $ETH instead. My thesis is simple: utility coins (the few that matter) will outperform $BTC in the coming years, similar to how the S&P500 crushed Gold from 1980-2000 when tech took off. I'd rather be early than late on this trend—and capitalize if I'm right.
As always, I put my money where my mouth is. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. Invest balanced, match your risk profile.
Macro bottom probability for $ETH sits at 60%, with potential confirmation in 2026 (above $2500). For $BTC, I'm less confident—wouldn't be surprised by a new low sub-$58k if we get a fall correction. Potential bottom zone: $52k-$58k. Bottom probability for $BTC: 45%. (Based on sentiment, technicals, volume, history, on-chain data, etc.)
Last cycle I called $BTC wouldn't break $150k (was right, my target was $135k-$140k for the top). Next cycle? $BTC likely won't pass $160k, while $ETH could mirror $BTC's 2023-2025 run and hit $12k-$15k.
My positioning: For the first time since 2016, $BTC is NOT #1 in my bear market portfolio—~40% is in $ETH instead. My thesis is simple: utility coins (the few that matter) will outperform $BTC in the coming years, similar to how the S&P500 crushed Gold from 1980-2000 when tech took off. I'd rather be early than late on this trend—and capitalize if I'm right.
As always, I put my money where my mouth is. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. Invest balanced, match your risk profile.
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Log-log chart showing $BTC price history.
The pattern is clear—each cycle pushes higher lows and higher highs. We're still in a macro uptrend despite the noise.
Zoom out. Stay patient. The structure hasn't broken.
The pattern is clear—each cycle pushes higher lows and higher highs. We're still in a macro uptrend despite the noise.
Zoom out. Stay patient. The structure hasn't broken.
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Missed your ITR deadline? Your tax bill doesn't pause. It grows. Every single month.
30% tax on your crypto gains was already due. Now interest starts stacking on top of it, and the ITD can already see your trades through your AIS.
Here's what actually happens next 👇
30% tax on your crypto gains was already due. Now interest starts stacking on top of it, and the ITD can already see your trades through your AIS.
Here's what actually happens next 👇
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SPX vs Gold ratio hitting 1.84 by July 2026
$SPX projected at 7,481
Gold at $4,073/oz
This ratio compression tells you everything about where smart money is rotating. When equities only trade at less than 2x gold, it's historically meant either:
• Stocks are getting crushed
• Gold is ripping on macro fear
• Or both
Right now we're at ~5.5. A drop to 1.84 means either equities bleed 65% or gold 3x's. Reality? Probably somewhere in between with heavy rotation into hard assets.
Watch this ratio. It's a better macro signal than most talking heads will admit.
$SPX projected at 7,481
Gold at $4,073/oz
This ratio compression tells you everything about where smart money is rotating. When equities only trade at less than 2x gold, it's historically meant either:
• Stocks are getting crushed
• Gold is ripping on macro fear
• Or both
Right now we're at ~5.5. A drop to 1.84 means either equities bleed 65% or gold 3x's. Reality? Probably somewhere in between with heavy rotation into hard assets.
Watch this ratio. It's a better macro signal than most talking heads will admit.
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$BTC spent 2,159 days grinding between $10k-$100k. That's almost 6 years of pure consolidation before breaking six figures.
Now we're only 217 days into the $100k-$1M range. If history rhymes, we're barely 10% through this cycle's price discovery phase.
Most people still think $BTC is "too expensive" at $100k. They said the same thing at $10k. Pattern recognition is free alpha.
Now we're only 217 days into the $100k-$1M range. If history rhymes, we're barely 10% through this cycle's price discovery phase.
Most people still think $BTC is "too expensive" at $100k. They said the same thing at $10k. Pattern recognition is free alpha.
62% da oferta de $BTC não se moveu há 4+ anos
12,48M de moedas travadas por detentores de longo prazo
7,59M em circulação ativa
Este é o pico de convicção. Quando a oferta fica tão apertada e os HODLers se recusam a vender, mesmo pequenos choques na demanda fazem o preço subir verticalmente.
Quanto mais tempo as moedas ficam dormentes, mais violento será o próximo rompimento.
12,48M de moedas travadas por detentores de longo prazo
7,59M em circulação ativa
Este é o pico de convicção. Quando a oferta fica tão apertada e os HODLers se recusam a vender, mesmo pequenos choques na demanda fazem o preço subir verticalmente.
Quanto mais tempo as moedas ficam dormentes, mais violento será o próximo rompimento.
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$BTC at $63,272 on Aug 16, 2026.
Mayer Multiple: 0.91
Below 1.0 = historically undervalued territory. If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. This is where smart money loads bags before the next leg up.
Price 9% below 200-day MA. Screams discount.
#MayerMultiple
Mayer Multiple: 0.91
Below 1.0 = historically undervalued territory. If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. This is where smart money loads bags before the next leg up.
Price 9% below 200-day MA. Screams discount.
#MayerMultiple
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📊 $BTC price indexed by year (as of 08/16/2026)
This chart shows how each year's price action stacks up when normalized to a starting point. Useful for comparing cycle structures and identifying whether we're front-running or lagging previous bull runs.
Key insight: If current year's trajectory is tracking above 2020-2021, we're in acceleration mode. If below, we're consolidating or bleeding momentum.
Watch for divergences between indexed performance and on-chain metrics (like realized cap or MVRV). When price outpaces fundamentals, correction risk spikes. When it lags, accumulation zone.
Track this to time your rotations into alts or stable positioning.
This chart shows how each year's price action stacks up when normalized to a starting point. Useful for comparing cycle structures and identifying whether we're front-running or lagging previous bull runs.
Key insight: If current year's trajectory is tracking above 2020-2021, we're in acceleration mode. If below, we're consolidating or bleeding momentum.
Watch for divergences between indexed performance and on-chain metrics (like realized cap or MVRV). When price outpaces fundamentals, correction risk spikes. When it lags, accumulation zone.
Track this to time your rotations into alts or stable positioning.
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$BTC sitting 54% below Power Law trend at $63k vs $137k model price.
That's 833 days of lag.
Last time price matched current level? May 2024.
Power Law hasn't been wrong on macro timeframes. If you believe in the model, this is deep value territory.
Either we're early or the law breaks. Pick your side.
That's 833 days of lag.
Last time price matched current level? May 2024.
Power Law hasn't been wrong on macro timeframes. If you believe in the model, this is deep value territory.
Either we're early or the law breaks. Pick your side.
1.587 sats por dólar em 16 de agosto de 2026
$BTC em US$ 63.009
Para contexto: cada dólar compra menos sats à medida que o preço sobe. Esse é o indicador que importa no longo prazo.
Acumule de acordo.
$BTC em US$ 63.009
Para contexto: cada dólar compra menos sats à medida que o preço sobe. Esse é o indicador que importa no longo prazo.
Acumule de acordo.
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$BTC yearly price history (as of 08/15/2026)
Every cycle tells the same story: accumulate in the bear, exit in euphoria.
The charts don't lie. Most degens buy tops and panic sell bottoms. The ones who win? They stack sats when everyone's calling for $10k.
2026 data still unfolding but if history rhymes, we're either mid-cycle or setting up for the next leg. Position accordingly.
Every cycle tells the same story: accumulate in the bear, exit in euphoria.
The charts don't lie. Most degens buy tops and panic sell bottoms. The ones who win? They stack sats when everyone's calling for $10k.
2026 data still unfolding but if history rhymes, we're either mid-cycle or setting up for the next leg. Position accordingly.
Verificação de HODL Wave no $BTC em 15 de ago. de 2026 👀
Quem está segurando e por quanto tempo? A distribuição conta a história.
Detentores de longo prazo vs dinheiro novo — este gráfico mostra níveis de convicção e possíveis zonas de pressão de oferta.
Se você não está acompanhando as HODL Waves, está voando às cegas sobre a dinâmica de oferta.
Quem está segurando e por quanto tempo? A distribuição conta a história.
Detentores de longo prazo vs dinheiro novo — este gráfico mostra níveis de convicção e possíveis zonas de pressão de oferta.
Se você não está acompanhando as HODL Waves, está voando às cegas sobre a dinâmica de oferta.
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$BTC sitting at $62,999 after testing $65.4k highs last week
7-day range: $62.4k - $65.4k
Price got rejected at resistance and now consolidating in the low $63k zone. Watch for a break above $65k or support test at $62.4k.
Volatility compressed. Next move could be violent either way.
7-day range: $62.4k - $65.4k
Price got rejected at resistance and now consolidating in the low $63k zone. Watch for a break above $65k or support test at $62.4k.
Volatility compressed. Next move could be violent either way.
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Friendly reminder that some apps are literally honeypots for feds and criminals.
They want:
• Your location
• Who you hodl with
• How much $BTC you stack
Feds get surveillance lists. Criminals get $5 wrench attack targets.
Stop doxxing yourself at every meetup. OpSec isn't paranoia—it's survival.
Stay safe, anon. 🔒
They want:
• Your location
• Who you hodl with
• How much $BTC you stack
Feds get surveillance lists. Criminals get $5 wrench attack targets.
Stop doxxing yourself at every meetup. OpSec isn't paranoia—it's survival.
Stay safe, anon. 🔒
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