Many love to compare historical periods to try to predict the future. We prefer to use automatic fractal identification algorithms to find the most similar periods.
An analysis of the last 365 days of the S&P500 shows a high correlation with the period from September 15, 2005, to July 12, 2007, also known as the financial crisis of 2007-2008. This chart uses the Cross-Correlation algorithm to identify a period in the history of the S&P500 that best matches the last 365 days. Very interesting indeed.
The second chart uses the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) technique, which can warp time to find the pattern most similar to the last 365 days of the S&P500. In this case, it identified the period from 2020 to 2021 as the closest match to the last 365 days of the S&P500.
We can apply this analysis to any asset, whether in traditional markets or cryptocurrencies. In the example below, a truly similar pattern is presented for BTC/USD, where the last 365 days are similar to the year 2019.
These types of statistical analysis are for research reference only and to automate analyses that are usually time-consuming for analysts, without any intention of financial advice.
$BTC #SPX #Fractal #AI #Bitcoin
✅ Palestrante Confirmado: Douglas Tadeu
Estamos empolgados em anunciar que Douglas Tadeu, um especialista em análise de mercado focado em criptomoedas, será um dos nossos palestrantes de destaque no evento! 🌟
🔹 **Sobre Douglas Tadeu:**
- Especialista em Análise Gráfica de Criptomoedas: Com um foco em entender e prever o comportamento do mercado através de gráficos.
- Início no Mercado de Ações em 2019: Diversificou seus investimentos em criptomoedas e, em menos de um mês, viu um crescimento significativo.
- Transição Completa para Criptomoedas: Decidiu transferir todos os seus investimentos para o mercado de criptomoedas, dedicando-se a aprender e controlar seus ganhos em um ambiente de altíssimo risco.
- Experiência e Sucesso: Em quatro anos, Douglas conseguiu viver do mercado, multiplicar seu patrimônio e se tornar um analista técnico altamente capacitado.
- Educador e Influenciador no YouTube: Compartilha suas análises e conhecimentos para ajudar pessoas a entender e navegar melhor nos mercados de alto risco.
Douglas trará insights profundos sobre como interpretar gráficos e identificar tendências antes de acontecerem, oferecendo estratégias valiosas para investir com confiança em um mercado volátil. Não perca esta oportunidade de aprender com um dos mais experientes analistas técnicos do setor!
🗓️ Datas: 13, 14 e 15 de setembro
📍 Local: Teatro Univap - Praça Cândido Dias Castejón - Centro, São José dos Campos - SP, 12245-914
Garanta seu ingresso agora e prepare-se para uma jornada de aprendizado e networking incomparável! 🌐
⚠️Short-Term Holders are distributing BTC while Long-Term Holders are accumulating again. This is a bad sign for Bitcoin, and such behavior has historically marked the beginning of a Bear Market for the cryptocurrency market.
When the price of Bitcoin rises, Long-Term Holders tend to sell their positions while Short-Term Holders accumulate more BTC. With the influx of institutional and retail money, this phase is considered a Bull Market. However, when Short-Term Holders stop accumulating BTC, it signals the end of the price increase cycle, directly influencing the supply vs. demand dynamics.
To improve interpretation, we can analyze the 1-year moving average of the Accumulation vs. Distribution indicator for Short-Term Holders, making this behavior more apparent. Throughout Bitcoin's history, when this metric stopped rising and started to reverse, the price of Bitcoin entered a Bear Market phase. However, it is important to note that on some occasions, a "Fake Bear Market" occurred where the price continued to rise afterward. For a more anticipatory view, we can also analyze the 90-day moving average, which is currently in the red, indicating more selling over the past three months.
🧠We cannot definitively say that the current decline in the metric is a bad sign for the price, but we emphasize the importance of constantly analyzing the sentiment of Short-Term Holders along with other metrics for more accurate decision-making.
#bearmarket #BTC #Bearish #Crypto $BTC $ETH $BNB
🐳Whales are returning to short positions in the short term. The Whale Position Sentiment indicator tracks leveraged positions with cumulative trades over $1M USD across various exchanges, representing this in the Open Interest, making it a highly powerful and unique indicator.
⏳In the short term, whales seem to be closing their longs and slowly returning to short positions. The key point of attention is the 7-day moving average of the Whale Position Sentiment, as historically, it has accurately marked the bottoms and all key price levels of Bitcoin. Recently, the daily chart has started to reverse. Monitoring derivative metrics is extremely important, especially for large positions, as they control the price and volume 90% of the time.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Whale #Long #Short #Sentiment
Spot Ethereum ETFs, following in the footsteps of Bitcoin, are finally opening for trading today. Analysts have generally indicated that a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon may occur for Ethereum, similar to what was observed with spot Bitcoin ETFs.
QCP Capital pointed out that although the ETH ETF launch was highly anticipated, the market reaction has been subdued, and the ETFs have not significantly influenced the market or price.
Analysts have noted that the response of the ETH price to the ETF launch has been restrained, with investors waiting to see if there will be a sell-off event in ETH ETFs as was seen with BTC.
Drawing a comparison, analysts mentioned that Bitcoin dropped to $38,000 after its ETF launch but reached a new all-time high (ATH) two months later.
Despite the ETF launch, the spot market has remained quiet. Analysts suggest that the options market expects further downward movement in the short term, influenced by news from the US Government and Mt. Gox.
They have recently highlighted that the spot ETH ETF might not initially impact prices, and with potential selling pressure from the US Government and Mt. Gox, spot prices could stay stagnant until the US elections in November.
"The market reaction to the spot Ethereum ETF launch has been muted, as investors are waiting to see if it follows the 'buy the rumor, sell the news' trend.
For comparison, the Bitcoin price dropped to $38,000 after its ETF launch but reached a new ATH two months later.
While spot prices remain lackluster, the options market presents a different scenario, anticipating further downside in the near term, exacerbated by news from the US Government and Mt. Gox.
With the spot ETH ETF not initially impacting prices and potential selling pressure from the US Government and Mt. Gox, prices may remain stagnant until the US elections." #ETH_ETFs_Approval_Predictions #etherreum #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #EtheruemETF #Cryptocurrencies
Spot Ethereum ETFs, which received initial approval from the SEC at the end of May, are set to begin trading today. In anticipation of this, Grayscale, one of the ETF issuers, transferred $1 billion worth of ETH to Coinbase last night.
This significant move by Grayscale has led to speculation among investors about a possible sale of ETH. However, experts suggest that the transfer is not indicative of a sale.
Jon Campagna, manager of crypto hedge fund company Nexyst Digital, told Decrypt that the transfer was not intended for sales purposes.
Amid rumors that Grayscale might sell ETH to invest in other cryptocurrencies like Solana (SOL), Campagna clarified that the transfer was from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) to the Grayscale Ethereum mini ETH ETF.
He reminded that on July 18, Grayscale allocated 10% of ETHE assets for the new ETF, saying:
“The sale doesn’t make sense. On July 18, Grayscale allocated 10% of ETHE assets for the new ETF. They announced that ETHE holders would receive 10% of their assets when the ETF begins trading. With ETHE's asset value at $10 billion, 10% equates to $1 billion. Hence, this ETH transfer was made in preparation for the ETH ETFs. They’re not selling ETH or buying Solana.”
Campagna also mentioned that there would be outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust due to high transaction fees, but these would likely shift to other ETFs, particularly Grayscale’s mini-Ethereum fund.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas echoed this, stating that the transfer is not a sale but a transition from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust to the Grayscale Ethereum mini ETH ETF.
Following a similar pattern seen with Spot Bitcoin ETFs, Grayscale made substantial Bitcoin (BTC) transfers after the launch of BTC ETFs. #ETH #ethereum #ETFs #CryptocurrencyNews #cryptocurrencies
ETFs Ethereum podem ter demanda abaixo do esperado, prevêem duas empresas de pesquisa
A demanda inicial por ETFs de éter à vista pode ser menor do que o previsto, prevêem Wintermute e Kaiko.
Wintermute vê cerca de 62% menos entradas no próximo ano do que os ETFs de bitcoin receberam em seis meses.
Algumas empresas de criptografia proeminentes veem uma estreia relativamente silenciosa de fundos negociados em bolsa que detêm o éter {{ETH}} da Ethereum.
Wintermute, um grande formador de mercado, prevê que os ETFs de Ethereum arrecadarão no máximo US$ 4 bilhões em entradas de investidores no próximo ano. Isso está abaixo dos US$ 4,5 bilhões a US$ 6,5 bilhões esperados pela maioria dos analistas – e esse último número já é cerca de 62% menor que os US$ 17 bilhões que os ETFs de bitcoin arrecadaram até agora desde que começaram a ser negociados nos EUA, há seis meses.
Wintermute, no entanto, vê o preço do Ether subir até 24% nos próximos 12 meses, impulsionado por essas entradas.
Oito potenciais emissores estão prontos para listar seus produtos nos EUA já na terça-feira, incluindo BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, VanEck, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, 21Shares e Invesco, após enviarem seus documentos finais na semana passada.
Os reguladores dos EUA recusaram o pedido dos emissores para permitir que os ETFs de Ether apostassem nas criptomoedas que possuem, o que teria gerado receitas que poderiam ter sido compartilhadas com os investidores. “Essa perda reduz a competitividade dos ETFs de ETH em comparação com participações diretas, onde os investidores ainda podem se beneficiar da aposta”, disse Wintermute em seu relatório.
A empresa de pesquisa Kaiko compartilha uma perspectiva semelhante com base em lançamentos anteriores com foco no Ethereum.
“O lançamento dos ETFs ETH baseados em futuros nos EUA no final do ano passado foi atendido com uma demanda abaixo do esperado”, disse Will Cai, chefe de índices da Kaiko, em um relatório. “
The CBOE has granted "certified approval" for applications from companies such as Fidelity, VanEck, 21Shares, and Franklin to list spot Ethereum ETFs, pending the final approval from the SEC.
Issuers vying for the Ethereum ETF will need to wait for the SEC to approve the registration statements to become effective, as part of a two-stage process.
The agency approved forms 19b-4 in May, marking the first step.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas previously mentioned that firms were planning to “request events” on Monday. Balchunas and other sources also anticipated that the ETFs would start trading on Tuesday.
The Cboe Exchange, where most of the proposed Ethereum ETFs will be listed, announced last week that they would commence trading on Tuesday. #ETH #ethereum #sec #bitcoin #cryptocurrencies