灯塔说
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灯塔说
Square Verified老牌交易员，专注二级交易|投研，严谨计划交易，严格交易计划！合作｜推特：@Cryptodengta
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Important Announcement:
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.
The most frequently asked question lately is: Is $BTC ’s current low at 57K truly the bottom?
Another friend added that October is the low point of each cycle, so the bottom may occur in October.
As for my view—whether a certain price is the bottom, I don’t know, and I also think it’s not that important. What matters is when the trend forms.
But which stage or which cycle is the bottom is something you may be able to know in advance. Looking at macro from a different perspective can reveal signals.
For example:
The bottom in 2022–2023 was only seen after continuous rate hikes reached the end, and only then did a bottom-and-rebound start.
In 2024–2025, the bottom from which the market began to rise again started only after the ETF and Trump’s inauguration.
For the adjustment in 2026—when it becomes the bottom—you need to see whether the negative macro factors have fully played out, and whether there is a major macro tailwind.
If not, then what price level is the bottom doesn’t really matter, because the market will keep ranging.
Based on Deribit’s options indicators, there are several pieces of information in this chart you can参考:
1) The put/call open interest ratio (bullish vs. bearish options positioning) is at 23.5万:13万.
2) There is still a large position in 40K put options. The 55–60.5K options are more densely clustered, suggesting that market expectations for bears have not been fully eliminated—although it may not be exactly bearish all the way at this level, even hedging spot indicates uncertainty about the market.
3) In the short term, expectations for 70K calls suggest there is still a lot of capital that is relatively optimistic about a rebound in the near term.
4) The far-dated 100K call options are likely early accumulations—consensus levels for the expected high point of subsequent rebounds.
From the options data, it looks like capital is still extremely cautious. This kind of caution indirectly signals that the market uncertainty is still high—at least it’s still in a defensive mode. Once the macro uncertainties are basically cleared, the direction will become much clearer and more definite.
Speaking of Deribit, it reminded me of an ad push on X from the other day: a trading game offered overseas small islands. One island is only $30,000, and lots of little island movie stories popped into my head—but the first question I had was: “How do I get onto that island?” Hahaha.
This marketing idea works—it triggers people’s instinctive curiosity.
I thought, I’ll go try trading. Not many people are participating now, so competition is low. If I end up getting an island, then I’ll also have the “someone with overseas fixed assets” persona.
Just imagining it makes me laugh, hahaha.
If you want to know more, you can click in and check it out yourself.
【Sharing only personal trading records; not investment advice of any kind】
Another friend added that October is the low point of each cycle, so the bottom may occur in October.
As for my view—whether a certain price is the bottom, I don’t know, and I also think it’s not that important. What matters is when the trend forms.
But which stage or which cycle is the bottom is something you may be able to know in advance. Looking at macro from a different perspective can reveal signals.
For example:
The bottom in 2022–2023 was only seen after continuous rate hikes reached the end, and only then did a bottom-and-rebound start.
In 2024–2025, the bottom from which the market began to rise again started only after the ETF and Trump’s inauguration.
For the adjustment in 2026—when it becomes the bottom—you need to see whether the negative macro factors have fully played out, and whether there is a major macro tailwind.
If not, then what price level is the bottom doesn’t really matter, because the market will keep ranging.
Based on Deribit’s options indicators, there are several pieces of information in this chart you can参考:
1) The put/call open interest ratio (bullish vs. bearish options positioning) is at 23.5万:13万.
2) There is still a large position in 40K put options. The 55–60.5K options are more densely clustered, suggesting that market expectations for bears have not been fully eliminated—although it may not be exactly bearish all the way at this level, even hedging spot indicates uncertainty about the market.
3) In the short term, expectations for 70K calls suggest there is still a lot of capital that is relatively optimistic about a rebound in the near term.
4) The far-dated 100K call options are likely early accumulations—consensus levels for the expected high point of subsequent rebounds.
From the options data, it looks like capital is still extremely cautious. This kind of caution indirectly signals that the market uncertainty is still high—at least it’s still in a defensive mode. Once the macro uncertainties are basically cleared, the direction will become much clearer and more definite.
Speaking of Deribit, it reminded me of an ad push on X from the other day: a trading game offered overseas small islands. One island is only $30,000, and lots of little island movie stories popped into my head—but the first question I had was: “How do I get onto that island?” Hahaha.
This marketing idea works—it triggers people’s instinctive curiosity.
I thought, I’ll go try trading. Not many people are participating now, so competition is low. If I end up getting an island, then I’ll also have the “someone with overseas fixed assets” persona.
Just imagining it makes me laugh, hahaha.
If you want to know more, you can click in and check it out yourself.
【Sharing only personal trading records; not investment advice of any kind】
The Trump-Iran candlestick charts are drawing again.
Trump said: The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has ended. This is only a verbal threat for now, but it still made the market crash.
The U.S. Dollar Index has broken above 101—now the dollar is rising, and everything else is falling!
The US stock market is also now negatively correlated with the dollar.
There’s also a Federal Reserve interest-rate meeting at 2:00 AM tonight. It’s likely to be dovish.
But I guess it will just trigger a rebound.
Trading is really hard to play at this stage. Watch more, act less—wait for the right opportunity to make your move.
$XAU $BTC $CL
Trump said: The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has ended. This is only a verbal threat for now, but it still made the market crash.
The U.S. Dollar Index has broken above 101—now the dollar is rising, and everything else is falling!
The US stock market is also now negatively correlated with the dollar.
There’s also a Federal Reserve interest-rate meeting at 2:00 AM tonight. It’s likely to be dovish.
But I guess it will just trigger a rebound.
Trading is really hard to play at this stage. Watch more, act less—wait for the right opportunity to make your move.
$XAU $BTC $CL
灯塔说
·
--
The candlesticks for Trump and Iran are being drawn again
$BTC $CL
$BTC $CL
The Han stock market rose early this morning,
then it fell again and triggered a trading halt.
Storage would probably surge in a big rebound too—I thought the downtrend had finally ended and the rebound was starting.
But now everything has fallen back again.
I didn’t dare to move; the volatility is too high.
With a small position there was no feeling, but if I opened big my heart can’t take it.
But this roller-coaster-like trend 🎢 isn’t a good sign.
$MUB $SKHYNIX
then it fell again and triggered a trading halt.
Storage would probably surge in a big rebound too—I thought the downtrend had finally ended and the rebound was starting.
But now everything has fallen back again.
I didn’t dare to move; the volatility is too high.
With a small position there was no feeling, but if I opened big my heart can’t take it.
But this roller-coaster-like trend 🎢 isn’t a good sign.
$MUB $SKHYNIX
灯塔说
·
--
Didn’t you notice
Half a month ago, the U.S. stock market that everyone celebrated together
and today, in fact, hasn’t seen that much change in fundamentals
Besides Micron’s earnings report that came with a highlight that held things up at the end
the non-farm data is actually still good for the fundamentals
So why did this drop so violently?
Meta sold off excess computing capacity—not because AI demand has decreased
The market has already recognized this
So the decline must be panic selling, emotion-driven selling
That kind of hot money—once it focuses on these targets
it leaves quickly and comes quickly too
Wait for a round of good fundamental news
Find an oversold opportunity
Go for it
Then just wait to count the cash
$MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK.US
Half a month ago, the U.S. stock market that everyone celebrated together
and today, in fact, hasn’t seen that much change in fundamentals
Besides Micron’s earnings report that came with a highlight that held things up at the end
the non-farm data is actually still good for the fundamentals
So why did this drop so violently?
Meta sold off excess computing capacity—not because AI demand has decreased
The market has already recognized this
So the decline must be panic selling, emotion-driven selling
That kind of hot money—once it focuses on these targets
it leaves quickly and comes quickly too
Wait for a round of good fundamental news
Find an oversold opportunity
Go for it
Then just wait to count the cash
$MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK.US
Didn’t you notice
Half a month ago, the U.S. stock market that everyone celebrated together
and today, in fact, hasn’t seen that much change in fundamentals
Besides Micron’s earnings report that came with a highlight that held things up at the end
the non-farm data is actually still good for the fundamentals
So why did this drop so violently?
Meta sold off excess computing capacity—not because AI demand has decreased
The market has already recognized this
So the decline must be panic selling, emotion-driven selling
That kind of hot money—once it focuses on these targets
it leaves quickly and comes quickly too
Wait for a round of good fundamental news
Find an oversold opportunity
Go for it
Then just wait to count the cash
$MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK.US
Half a month ago, the U.S. stock market that everyone celebrated together
and today, in fact, hasn’t seen that much change in fundamentals
Besides Micron’s earnings report that came with a highlight that held things up at the end
the non-farm data is actually still good for the fundamentals
So why did this drop so violently?
Meta sold off excess computing capacity—not because AI demand has decreased
The market has already recognized this
So the decline must be panic selling, emotion-driven selling
That kind of hot money—once it focuses on these targets
it leaves quickly and comes quickly too
Wait for a round of good fundamental news
Find an oversold opportunity
Go for it
Then just wait to count the cash
$MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK.US
灯塔说
·
--
US stocks continue to open and then drift lower. In the memory sector, Micron’s pullback from its peak is already down more than 20%, and Hynix is down more than 30%. Other memory stocks are pulling back in sync. What’s still hard to judge is where the bottom of the pullback will be, but one thing is clear: the magnitude of the pullback is already significant.
At this stage, the pullback is driven more by emotion and panic selling, not by changes in fundamentals.
The fundamentals for HBM remain unchanged: high demand and low supply. Under these conditions, to stop the decline and see a rebound, we need a positive catalyst.
Over the next few days, watch three fundamental developments:
1. The CPI data on Wednesday, July 8, and the upcoming policy meeting—whether it continues the dovish “NFP-style” signal and helps the market rebound.
2. TSMC’s revenue results for June, which will be released in the next few days. If the revenue is strong and the market believes AI demand growth will accelerate, that would be a positive signal.
3. Hynix’s ADR listing on July 10. If the current sell-off is an anticipatory reaction—selling the expectation and buying the fact—then once the listing happens, the negative factor may be “priced in,” which could become a more certain bullish signal.
If the FOMC turns more hawkish than expected, and at the same time TSMC’s revenue comes in below expectations—then the market’s view of AI demand could weaken, and there may still be room for further downside.
Trading US stocks is more about fundamentals than technicals.
$SKHYNIX $MU
At this stage, the pullback is driven more by emotion and panic selling, not by changes in fundamentals.
The fundamentals for HBM remain unchanged: high demand and low supply. Under these conditions, to stop the decline and see a rebound, we need a positive catalyst.
Over the next few days, watch three fundamental developments:
1. The CPI data on Wednesday, July 8, and the upcoming policy meeting—whether it continues the dovish “NFP-style” signal and helps the market rebound.
2. TSMC’s revenue results for June, which will be released in the next few days. If the revenue is strong and the market believes AI demand growth will accelerate, that would be a positive signal.
3. Hynix’s ADR listing on July 10. If the current sell-off is an anticipatory reaction—selling the expectation and buying the fact—then once the listing happens, the negative factor may be “priced in,” which could become a more certain bullish signal.
If the FOMC turns more hawkish than expected, and at the same time TSMC’s revenue comes in below expectations—then the market’s view of AI demand could weaken, and there may still be room for further downside.
Trading US stocks is more about fundamentals than technicals.
$SKHYNIX $MU
US stocks continue to open and then drift lower. In the memory sector, Micron’s pullback from its peak is already down more than 20%, and Hynix is down more than 30%. Other memory stocks are pulling back in sync. What’s still hard to judge is where the bottom of the pullback will be, but one thing is clear: the magnitude of the pullback is already significant.
At this stage, the pullback is driven more by emotion and panic selling, not by changes in fundamentals.
The fundamentals for HBM remain unchanged: high demand and low supply. Under these conditions, to stop the decline and see a rebound, we need a positive catalyst.
Over the next few days, watch three fundamental developments:
1. The CPI data on Wednesday, July 8, and the upcoming policy meeting—whether it continues the dovish “NFP-style” signal and helps the market rebound.
2. TSMC’s revenue results for June, which will be released in the next few days. If the revenue is strong and the market believes AI demand growth will accelerate, that would be a positive signal.
3. Hynix’s ADR listing on July 10. If the current sell-off is an anticipatory reaction—selling the expectation and buying the fact—then once the listing happens, the negative factor may be “priced in,” which could become a more certain bullish signal.
If the FOMC turns more hawkish than expected, and at the same time TSMC’s revenue comes in below expectations—then the market’s view of AI demand could weaken, and there may still be room for further downside.
Trading US stocks is more about fundamentals than technicals.
$SKHYNIX $MU
At this stage, the pullback is driven more by emotion and panic selling, not by changes in fundamentals.
The fundamentals for HBM remain unchanged: high demand and low supply. Under these conditions, to stop the decline and see a rebound, we need a positive catalyst.
Over the next few days, watch three fundamental developments:
1. The CPI data on Wednesday, July 8, and the upcoming policy meeting—whether it continues the dovish “NFP-style” signal and helps the market rebound.
2. TSMC’s revenue results for June, which will be released in the next few days. If the revenue is strong and the market believes AI demand growth will accelerate, that would be a positive signal.
3. Hynix’s ADR listing on July 10. If the current sell-off is an anticipatory reaction—selling the expectation and buying the fact—then once the listing happens, the negative factor may be “priced in,” which could become a more certain bullish signal.
If the FOMC turns more hawkish than expected, and at the same time TSMC’s revenue comes in below expectations—then the market’s view of AI demand could weaken, and there may still be room for further downside.
Trading US stocks is more about fundamentals than technicals.
$SKHYNIX $MU
Every morning, the Korean stock market is the bellwether.
After the market opened down
everything went down together even before the U.S. market opened.
Before that, the AI chip-related names were all falling.
As for MU (Micron), it only dares to go short at high levels—now it doesn’t dare to short here.
Even around 1010 from last night, no one dared to short.
This kind of fear follows the hottest, leading momentum names.
But buying from 1150 down to 950 means the expected target has been met.
$MU
After the market opened down
everything went down together even before the U.S. market opened.
Before that, the AI chip-related names were all falling.
As for MU (Micron), it only dares to go short at high levels—now it doesn’t dare to short here.
Even around 1010 from last night, no one dared to short.
This kind of fear follows the hottest, leading momentum names.
But buying from 1150 down to 950 means the expected target has been met.
$MU
This sudden V reversal is just an interlude
But it also completes the pullback confirmation early
Today, stay above 62.4k—go long again, looking bullish toward 65.6K
Gold hasn’t bottomed out yet. It’s expected to stop falling and start a new round of upside within the 4118–4080 range
$BTC
But it also completes the pullback confirmation early
Today, stay above 62.4k—go long again, looking bullish toward 65.6K
Gold hasn’t bottomed out yet. It’s expected to stop falling and start a new round of upside within the 4118–4080 range
$BTC
Verified
You have a friend named Mr. Wang. He spends money lavishly—every year he spends more than he earns. If a normal person did this, the banks wouldn’t lend to him anymore, or they’d charge him very high interest.
But Mr. Wang is different. His father runs a money-printing factory.
Every time Mr. Wang issues bonds to borrow money and nobody on the market buys, his father steps in and pays for them. Since he has a father with an unlimited backstop, the interest rate on Mr. Wang’s borrowing stays low—because creditors know that “his dad will take over.”
So Mr. Wang has no worries at all. He borrows more and more, the hole keeps getting bigger, and the deficit reaching 5.8% of income doesn’t bother him. After all, his dad is there—he won’t have trouble getting loans.
Now Warsh’s point is: it’s time for his dad to stop.
If his father stops buying, Mr. Wang has to borrow in the market at prices set by his actual creditworthiness. The market looks and says: wow—your hole every year is that big? The interest rate doubles.
Mr. Wang is forced to face the real consequences: either spend less, or earn more.
#美联储何时降息？
But Mr. Wang is different. His father runs a money-printing factory.
Every time Mr. Wang issues bonds to borrow money and nobody on the market buys, his father steps in and pays for them. Since he has a father with an unlimited backstop, the interest rate on Mr. Wang’s borrowing stays low—because creditors know that “his dad will take over.”
So Mr. Wang has no worries at all. He borrows more and more, the hole keeps getting bigger, and the deficit reaching 5.8% of income doesn’t bother him. After all, his dad is there—he won’t have trouble getting loans.
Now Warsh’s point is: it’s time for his dad to stop.
If his father stops buying, Mr. Wang has to borrow in the market at prices set by his actual creditworthiness. The market looks and says: wow—your hole every year is that big? The interest rate doubles.
Mr. Wang is forced to face the real consequences: either spend less, or earn more.
#美联储何时降息？
Partly True
Wow, MicroStrategy sold more than 3,000 bitcoins over the past week.
Probably they were dumping during the ups-and-downs—selling pressure as price was trying to rise hard, especially during the Asian session.
But thankfully, it was only the first time and it caused panic.
Do it a few more times and the market will be immune.
(Last week there was clear notice they would sell coins to cover dividends.)
Just take it in stride!
Good thing that over the weekend and early Monday, they warned about resistance around 64,000.
This pullback also successfully hit take-profit.
$BTC
Probably they were dumping during the ups-and-downs—selling pressure as price was trying to rise hard, especially during the Asian session.
But thankfully, it was only the first time and it caused panic.
Do it a few more times and the market will be immune.
(Last week there was clear notice they would sell coins to cover dividends.)
Just take it in stride!
Good thing that over the weekend and early Monday, they warned about resistance around 64,000.
This pullback also successfully hit take-profit.
$BTC
灯塔说
·
--
Monday open to a high before pulling back
Big coin reaches key resistance
Gold hits 4200
Don’t chase longs; don’t open long positions for now.
$BTC $XAU
Big coin reaches key resistance
Gold hits 4200
Don’t chase longs; don’t open long positions for now.
$BTC $XAU
Verified
This month, the new Fed chair has been making frequent appearances and attending events
More and clearer information signals will emerge regarding macroeconomic developments
This will be very helpful for trading.
#CLARITY法案错过7月4日签署目标
More and clearer information signals will emerge regarding macroeconomic developments
This will be very helpful for trading.
#CLARITY法案错过7月4日签署目标
Suddenly remembered that the Russia-Ukraine war has already been going on for more than four years.
Who will ultimately be unable to withstand the long-term attrition first?
The market seems to have stopped reacting much to the war’s outcome.
But if one side lets go first, that’s where their resources, finances, and industrial capacity will first show cracks.
And once cracks appear, that’s where trend trading begins.
#稳定币市值下降100亿美元至3000亿美元
Who will ultimately be unable to withstand the long-term attrition first?
The market seems to have stopped reacting much to the war’s outcome.
But if one side lets go first, that’s where their resources, finances, and industrial capacity will first show cracks.
And once cracks appear, that’s where trend trading begins.
#稳定币市值下降100亿美元至3000亿美元
#比特币较10月高点跌超50%
July 5 weekend recap:
Time flies—trading weekdays are about to begin again. The expansion of tradable instruments has greatly increased the one-stop trading opportunities for the brothers in the circle. Focus on what you are confident about; your probability of achieving returns increases significantly.
At the beginning of last week, we expected the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) market move. Next week, we will also see CPI data.
The market’s surprise uplift after the NFP: since the NFP release, BTC has currently broken above 63K, ETH has broken above 1800, and on July 2 the spot ETF also shifted from outflows to inflows, indicating that short-term liquidity is following and repairing. However, medium-term pressure still remains, so for now it can only be viewed as a rebound.
During last week’s recap, it was clearly stated to follow only long positions. With the pause in the Iran–Iraq war resolving the immediate energy issue, next week’s CPI data will most likely show inflation declining. This is also why, after the NFP, the market has been in a slow climb without adjustment—sentiment remains optimistic about what comes next.
But technically, we still need to watch certain key resistance levels, such as BTC at 63.8K–64.4K and ETH at 1850–1890. Before CPI next week, we should continue to hold low-long positions, but be alert to failed breakouts at the key areas mentioned above.
From a macro perspective: if next week’s CPI shows inflation falling, and the timeline for maintaining rate hikes continues to be delayed—or even rate-cut expectations recover—then the outlook for subsequent price action will remain optimistic. Even if there is a short-term technical pullback, it would be for a better upward break and trend reversal point, continuing to push toward higher levels.
Before the market faces a macro negative turning point, the dominant theme going forward is a choppy upward trend.
[This is only a record of personal views and does not constitute any investment advice]
$BTC $ETH
July 5 weekend recap:
Time flies—trading weekdays are about to begin again. The expansion of tradable instruments has greatly increased the one-stop trading opportunities for the brothers in the circle. Focus on what you are confident about; your probability of achieving returns increases significantly.
At the beginning of last week, we expected the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) market move. Next week, we will also see CPI data.
The market’s surprise uplift after the NFP: since the NFP release, BTC has currently broken above 63K, ETH has broken above 1800, and on July 2 the spot ETF also shifted from outflows to inflows, indicating that short-term liquidity is following and repairing. However, medium-term pressure still remains, so for now it can only be viewed as a rebound.
During last week’s recap, it was clearly stated to follow only long positions. With the pause in the Iran–Iraq war resolving the immediate energy issue, next week’s CPI data will most likely show inflation declining. This is also why, after the NFP, the market has been in a slow climb without adjustment—sentiment remains optimistic about what comes next.
But technically, we still need to watch certain key resistance levels, such as BTC at 63.8K–64.4K and ETH at 1850–1890. Before CPI next week, we should continue to hold low-long positions, but be alert to failed breakouts at the key areas mentioned above.
From a macro perspective: if next week’s CPI shows inflation falling, and the timeline for maintaining rate hikes continues to be delayed—or even rate-cut expectations recover—then the outlook for subsequent price action will remain optimistic. Even if there is a short-term technical pullback, it would be for a better upward break and trend reversal point, continuing to push toward higher levels.
Before the market faces a macro negative turning point, the dominant theme going forward is a choppy upward trend.
[This is only a record of personal views and does not constitute any investment advice]
$BTC $ETH
In my opinion
Try to avoid using contracts to repeatedly trade U.S. stocks back and forth for short-term gains as much as possible
Because it is very difficult to determine how to set a stop loss
$NVDA.US
Try to avoid using contracts to repeatedly trade U.S. stocks back and forth for short-term gains as much as possible
Because it is very difficult to determine how to set a stop loss
$NVDA.US
Today the US stock market is closed and trading is not open.
In my view, this is basically a garbage time in the market.
After each burst of price action driven by news and catalysts plays out,
there’s basically no opportunity to participate anymore.
That’s why it’s important to set up in advance.
While other people are still looking for a chance to enter,
we have already finished the battle.
The sideways-moving prices right now are key pressure levels.
This is a contest between bulls and bears.
Chasing longs is too aggressive and too passive.
Shorting doesn’t have enough conditions.
The best approach is to wait—
wait to see whether this level can be broken through.
If it can’t, there will be signals to short.
If it does, there will also be opportunities to catch the next upswing again.
The only advantage of being proactive with trading is that it allows you to wait for the next opportunity more easily, more clearly, and with more patience.
$BTC
In my view, this is basically a garbage time in the market.
After each burst of price action driven by news and catalysts plays out,
there’s basically no opportunity to participate anymore.
That’s why it’s important to set up in advance.
While other people are still looking for a chance to enter,
we have already finished the battle.
The sideways-moving prices right now are key pressure levels.
This is a contest between bulls and bears.
Chasing longs is too aggressive and too passive.
Shorting doesn’t have enough conditions.
The best approach is to wait—
wait to see whether this level can be broken through.
If it can’t, there will be signals to short.
If it does, there will also be opportunities to catch the next upswing again.
The only advantage of being proactive with trading is that it allows you to wait for the next opportunity more easily, more clearly, and with more patience.
$BTC
灯塔说
·
--
Many friends got to know me this time
and subscribed and followed on the channel.
My DMs got even busier—more people added me.
The main reason is that I’ve been synchronizing my trading logic and thought process with real substance—no hindsight or “after-the-fact” claims.
On Monday, I started reminding everyone about the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the potential benefits, and I laid the groundwork early by adding to long positions in crypto and gold.
The continuous posts can be traced back!
As for the US stock market: after Hynix announced that it would be listed on July 10 and the Nasdaq and broader market saw a pullback,
combined with the fact that NFP was a negative factor for the US dollar,
I looked at the impact on tech stocks.
So I chose to short Micron at 1150 (the dilution premium effect related to Hynix’s listing).
On Wednesday, there were Wausch’s sudden “hawkish-to-dovish” comments (the “gigi” statement) that came early enough to fulfill the bullish expectations for NFP,
allowing price action to move into a long bias ahead of time.
But on Thursday, the NFP data came in with a surprise, which further confirmed the certainty of Wausch’s claim that inflation had already been declining.
Also, on Thursday, in parallel, Meta’s selling off of excess compute capacity impacted storage again—it fell once more.
But the cloud vendors among the “Big 7” in US stocks propped things up.
By comparing and integrating the different signals, I reminded people of the reasons to go long Microsoft (MSFT): its valuation has a bit more upside.
In the end, the market delivered the answer—an upside move against the trend.
Last night, before sleeping, I watched the US stocks’ late-session selloff accelerate.
I kept waiting for an opportunity to buy, and Corning finally gave one at 193.
I calculated that the pullback from the peak was about 40%.
For a glass substrate that Nvidia values highly and that is very important in optical modules,
this pullback is extremely attractive.
The posts reminded people to pick up “the corpses” and become the next buyers.
Writing out this whole sequence of smooth operations isn’t meant to show off—it’s to record that trading must have logic and a thought process.
It’s not about blindly following.
Blindly following hearsay and rumors is not safe—you don’t know what to do when prices rise or fall.
Now that AI tools are this good, you can learn what you want by doing multiple exchanges with AI, and you’ll be able to get information you can reference.
Let me state again: this isn’t bragging, and it’s not “that impressive.” I’m still continuing to learn.
I’m not posting screenshots here either—most of it has already been synchronized and shared in earlier posts.
If you like it, give me a subscription and interact—encourage me to post more. (I’m kind of passive and slow to warm up; I usually don’t like to speak up proactively.)
Thanks for stopping by to watch the show.
$XAU $ETH $BTC
and subscribed and followed on the channel.
My DMs got even busier—more people added me.
The main reason is that I’ve been synchronizing my trading logic and thought process with real substance—no hindsight or “after-the-fact” claims.
On Monday, I started reminding everyone about the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the potential benefits, and I laid the groundwork early by adding to long positions in crypto and gold.
The continuous posts can be traced back!
As for the US stock market: after Hynix announced that it would be listed on July 10 and the Nasdaq and broader market saw a pullback,
combined with the fact that NFP was a negative factor for the US dollar,
I looked at the impact on tech stocks.
So I chose to short Micron at 1150 (the dilution premium effect related to Hynix’s listing).
On Wednesday, there were Wausch’s sudden “hawkish-to-dovish” comments (the “gigi” statement) that came early enough to fulfill the bullish expectations for NFP,
allowing price action to move into a long bias ahead of time.
But on Thursday, the NFP data came in with a surprise, which further confirmed the certainty of Wausch’s claim that inflation had already been declining.
Also, on Thursday, in parallel, Meta’s selling off of excess compute capacity impacted storage again—it fell once more.
But the cloud vendors among the “Big 7” in US stocks propped things up.
By comparing and integrating the different signals, I reminded people of the reasons to go long Microsoft (MSFT): its valuation has a bit more upside.
In the end, the market delivered the answer—an upside move against the trend.
Last night, before sleeping, I watched the US stocks’ late-session selloff accelerate.
I kept waiting for an opportunity to buy, and Corning finally gave one at 193.
I calculated that the pullback from the peak was about 40%.
For a glass substrate that Nvidia values highly and that is very important in optical modules,
this pullback is extremely attractive.
The posts reminded people to pick up “the corpses” and become the next buyers.
Writing out this whole sequence of smooth operations isn’t meant to show off—it’s to record that trading must have logic and a thought process.
It’s not about blindly following.
Blindly following hearsay and rumors is not safe—you don’t know what to do when prices rise or fall.
Now that AI tools are this good, you can learn what you want by doing multiple exchanges with AI, and you’ll be able to get information you can reference.
Let me state again: this isn’t bragging, and it’s not “that impressive.” I’m still continuing to learn.
I’m not posting screenshots here either—most of it has already been synchronized and shared in earlier posts.
If you like it, give me a subscription and interact—encourage me to post more. (I’m kind of passive and slow to warm up; I usually don’t like to speak up proactively.)
Thanks for stopping by to watch the show.
$XAU $ETH $BTC
Curious: What happens if Trump suddenly dies?
He suddenly dies.
What will the market do?
What do you think will happen?
He suddenly dies.
What will the market do?
What do you think will happen?
Robots: They’ve been suppressing me for a month—technology has finally corrected
I can finally step out and make my move
Pharmaceuticals: They’ve been pushing me down for half a year; I’m also going to stand up and move forward
Gold and silver: I want in too—I’ve been bullied to death recently
I can finally step out and make my move
Pharmaceuticals: They’ve been pushing me down for half a year; I’m also going to stand up and move forward
Gold and silver: I want in too—I’ve been bullied to death recently
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