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Don’t drag it out.
Stop just skimming the surface.
Hurry up—the waterfall.
I have a whole pile of empty orders (BTC and gold).
Besides $SPCX

$SPCX How’s this second-market “big test” going?

Wall Street broadly expects Q2 revenue to be between $6.72 billion and $6.90 billion. GAAP net loss is expected to be on the order of $2 billion.

Starlink’s connection services revenue is currently the absolute main driver. The market urgently needs to see a clear path to monetizing AI-related applications, along with strong growth in subscription users.

Believe in Musk once
And believe in the first earnings report after the IPO

Last night I also successfully got in at the pullback entry point.
Now it’s possible to cut the loss at cost until the earnings report is released.
Sell before the lockup shares are unlocked and released on August 6!

Trillion-yuan dead money, a brand-new key—does Babylon TBV really work?

You definitely know a friend like this: holding BTC, selling neither in a bear market nor in a bull market. When you ask why they don’t take it and use it, they say only: “Wherever else it goes, it’s not as safe as keeping it in your own wallet.”

They’re not wrong. Over the past five years, there have been plenty of attempts to bring BTC into DeFi, but after winding around, there’s always the same old problem: either trust an institution, or trust a bridge, or trust a packaged IOU. For a real holder, these three options are essentially the same thing—handing your coins away.

So with a market value of 比特币 trillion, the share of DeFi penetration is under 1%. It’s not that there’s no demand—it’s that there’s no channel.

Babylon Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBV) tries a different route.

TBV’s core logic isn’t complicated: BTC stays put on the Bitcoin mainnet. By using pre-signed transactions plus cryptographic proofs (the BABE protocol, developed in collaboration with the Berkeley cryptography team), it manages the lockup and settlement logic.

You open a vault with BTC, and borrow USDC against it at 以太坊. Repayment goes through the normal redemption process; if the vault is liquidated, it follows the pre-signed execution path. Throughout, you don’t need a multi-sig committee, you don’t need cross-chain bridge custody, and you don’t need wrapped assets.

Self-custody, isolated vaults—one vault per user.

Where are we at right now? (Click to view the update thread below.)
#baby $BABY @BabylonLabs_io

Brothers, we’re all about unity of knowledge and action.
And I also hate empty talk.
That’s why I’ve been trading on the live market.

The $SPCX earnings report hasn’t been released yet, but the adjustment last night just pulled back to the order levels I warned about.
Now it’s completely possible to include a stop-loss at cost and see if we can push a run to the opening price of 135 once the report comes out.

Tomorrow there is a SpaceX Q2 earnings report.
It will also be the company’s first earnings report since its IPO.

Because the current price is far from the issue price of 135,
I’m more hopeful that the earnings report will meet expectations.

Whether or not you want to believe in another round of Elon Musk...

I still placed a long order at 109.8.
$SPCX

At this stage, the only ones who can survive are old “suckers”

I don’t understand why they still like listening to those who peddle big dreams to make a few hundred points—when ETH earns just 10–20 points and they get excited and shout “I made it big!”

Aren’t they completely stupid?
If you can actually make money, that would be strange.

Talk about the trading of Bitcoin and gold:\n\nOn the weekend I was flat on Bitcoin, planning to buy near 63,750, but on the weekend I entered near 63,310 early.\nThe 63,750 I posted in the morning also got filled.\nToday it also reached the preset target of 63,580.\nI continue to post a short at 62,900–63,000.\nAt around 62,200 it can’t hold up; I plan to take another look near 61–60K.\nBelow that, it hasn’t been decided how much yet, but it’s currently weak and the macro backdrop is bearish.\nGo with the trend and short. Leaving room for a move to 59K.\nBelow 60K is also a pretty good spot for a low buy.\n\nToday I also went short on gold.\nThe target is 4015; I plan to test 4000 again, and it may even drop below 4000.\nBut it’s fine if it breaks below—breaking below is a good thing; it creates an opportunity to low buy.\nIn the future, cherish the opportunity when it breaks below 4000; the extreme case would be making a new low around 3,900.\n\nI’m bullish on the future trend of Bitcoin and gold—August’s pullback is an opportunity.\n$BTC $XAU \n\n

Crude oil has reached the specified target near 79
Another precise guidance

Remember the last time it was guided from 77–79 to 85–87?
It hit every single band!

But to be honest, I only captured part of the profit.
$CL
Now we’re waiting for further progress in the negotiations. If it breaks below the 78 area, the next step will be around 69.

During the talks, it’s enough to go short on the rebounds.

This funding rate is too high.
Annualized: -899%

At this point, let’s not have Trump come in with a reversal.
And don’t shoot any shells.
$CL

Iran cares too much about appearances
Trump is much better in this regard
Completely clueless about what “face” even means

Although they’re all stubbornly tough, everyone wants to end the fight as quickly as possible!$CL

$CL I received the news immediately that Trump has canceled the planned attack on Iran.
But the order is set by default to a limit-order mode, so I missed the opportunity to enter at 84+.

In the end, rationality prevailed, and both sides chose to give way.
In the current situation, there are only two options:全面升级 and backsliding to negotiate, or退步 and negotiate.

The earlier small skirmishes are no longer effective.
And the market isn’t buying into it anymore.

Now we’ll keep observing the progress of the subsequent negotiations!

If oil prices fall, the outlook for August’s market will be a bit less pessimistic.

Today is the last day of July—marking the closing of the monthly chart.
I want to write something, but it feels like there’s not much worth writing.
So I’ll simply summarize each thing I want to say:
1、July ends successfully; I’m fairly satisfied. From the 1st to every fundamental-driven move from last night, I managed to catch each wave in advance. The regret is that I didn’t perfectly capture the full move. The follower test account also achieved 200%+ returns, with drawdown controlled within 12%.
2、August is tough, but once we get through August and transition into September, Q4’s market should be much better;
3、Fundamentals remain the main line; technical analysis is there to assist. In July, I spent a lot of effort understanding deeper macro information—and I also reaped the returns from that effort.
4、I’m bullish on gold and BTC. The main approach going forward is to buy on dips and go long. In August, I’ll consider using more dip-buying tools.
5、The waters in the US stock market run too deep. It’s not an area I’m familiar with, so I’ll look for speculative opportunities at the extreme high and low points.

Each of the points above will be discussed in more depth from time to time during livestreams on the Square and in the Star Sphere!
$BTC $CL $XAU

Ah, after taking another look at GIGGLE today
it's already 40+...
CTM sold it too high
$GIGGLE

Gold has just perfectly pierced 4120 to take profit
Right now there is only one live-stream reminder for a 64900 short position

A perfect July finish!
$XAU

Tonight live stream together to watch PCE and GDP data
Let’s make July end perfectly
$XAU $BTC

How to look at the 20:30 Beijing time release of US GDP and PCE data?
First, look at the relationship of the results:
If PCE cools and GDP is weak: US Treasury yields fall, which is favorable for gold and tends to push BTC/ETH higher via a short squeeze.
If PCE runs hot and GDP is resilient: rate-hike expectations and yields rise, which makes it easier to break through the lower end of the range.
If GDP is weak but PCE is hot: a stagflation-type setup, which is least friendly for risk assets.

Tonight (Thursday 8:30) is an extremely rare “data on the same screen” event—Q2 GDP advance and June core PCE landing in the same window, and right after yesterday’s Fed decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.

The key tug-of-war in this set of data is “confirmation of a stagflation snapshot.” The biggest expectation gap in the market is on the economic growth pace: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has slashed the forecast since May’s 4.3% all the way down to about 1.5% now, far below the 2.3% consensus on Wall Street. Meanwhile, core PCE after setting a three-year high of 3.4% in May—tonight’s market expectation is only a slight dip to around 3.3%.

If tonight prints a combination like “low GDP (e.g., below 2%) + sticky PCE (flat or above 3.3%)”, that would put the Fed in a policy deadlock—Powell can’t keep hiking in the face of an economic cliff, but it also can’t create room for rate cuts ahead of core inflation at 3.3%.

What this means for trading tonight:

Gold:
A stagflation setup is an absolute bullish catalyst for gold. As long as GDP visibly sputters, the market will conclude that the Fed ultimately has to compromise with the economy. Weak economic activity suppresses nominal yields, while inflation remains elevated—real yields then drift lower passively, which provides very strong upside momentum for gold.

Crypto assets:
For liquidity-sensitive assets, this is a lose-lose scenario. Weak GDP makes the market price in more easing in the forward curve, but a hot PCE immediately clamps down on near-term risk appetite. Tonight’s bigger likelihood is that price first moves lower, triggering a pin-like cleanup of long liquidity. If BTC is currently ranging around 64,000, and unless PCE is extremely below expectations (for example, dropping directly toward 3.1% to fully open the space for rate cuts), it will be hard to form a one-way upside trend. It most likely turns into a wide-range “monkey market.”

Core:
Tonight, absolutely do not look at any single data point in isolation—you must look at the combination spread between the two. If, at the moment of release, you find that GDP is below expectations but PCE is above expectations, going long gold is the most straightforward trade based on logic;
$XAU