灯塔说
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灯塔说
Square Verified老牌交易员，专注二级交易|投研，严谨计划交易，严格交易计划！合作｜推特：@Cryptodengta
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Important Announcement:
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.
Only after getting trapped can you feel secure holding on
Profits will make you restless and uneasy
$NOK When will I get out of this trap?
When the crowd is roaring, that’s when you should sell—this saying is always right!
I want to short Changxin
Where can I short Changxin 10x?
Profits will make you restless and uneasy
$NOK When will I get out of this trap?
When the crowd is roaring, that’s when you should sell—this saying is always right!
I want to short Changxin
Where can I short Changxin 10x?
Is Bitcoin about to drop again?
Yesterday, Bitcoin failed to break above 65,500, and continued falling to break below 64K; the bears have once again regained control.
With crude oil falling and with a rate-setting meeting coming up, why did Bitcoin drop first?
My view remains unchanged—this is just the surface situation. It’s a short-term reduction in risk exposure, essentially liquidating the prior long positions.
Given the recent data showing negative signals, continue to look for low entries to buy the rebound.
Today the price is around the 63K area—this is the key support zone that I was waiting for a 4-hour level adjustment. It’s here now.
Keep a close eye on whether this holds and stops the decline. I will continue to look for low entries to buy the rebound here.
This is the final key support zone. Once it breaks the 4-hour level starting point at 62.5K, it would destroy the uptrend that can be sustained, and the market would then look toward 60K.
The hourly chart is still bearish. In the short term, there’s no fundamental catalyst, so price action is likely to continue with weak, range-bound fluctuations at the hourly-chart level.
For the short term, you may consider selling short around the 64.5–64.7K resistance.
【Bitcoin section—only personal trading views shared, not investment advice】
$BTC
Yesterday, Bitcoin failed to break above 65,500, and continued falling to break below 64K; the bears have once again regained control.
With crude oil falling and with a rate-setting meeting coming up, why did Bitcoin drop first?
My view remains unchanged—this is just the surface situation. It’s a short-term reduction in risk exposure, essentially liquidating the prior long positions.
Given the recent data showing negative signals, continue to look for low entries to buy the rebound.
Today the price is around the 63K area—this is the key support zone that I was waiting for a 4-hour level adjustment. It’s here now.
Keep a close eye on whether this holds and stops the decline. I will continue to look for low entries to buy the rebound here.
This is the final key support zone. Once it breaks the 4-hour level starting point at 62.5K, it would destroy the uptrend that can be sustained, and the market would then look toward 60K.
The hourly chart is still bearish. In the short term, there’s no fundamental catalyst, so price action is likely to continue with weak, range-bound fluctuations at the hourly-chart level.
For the short term, you may consider selling short around the 64.5–64.7K resistance.
【Bitcoin section—only personal trading views shared, not investment advice】
$BTC
Verified
Broad market sell-off—what signal is this?
When we wake up in the morning, the U.S. stock market, crypto, gold, and crude oil are all falling. The usual inverse correlation response of oil to other assets has also disappeared.
The key point is that this time crude oil is dropping viciously, yet there hasn’t been much news about friendly negotiations between the two sides.
Yesterday, Trump said that negotiations with Iran would bring good news—then around the corner, Iran called it out and denied there were talks.
This round of decline is not only driven by the tacit ceasefire between the two sides (leading to the drop), but also by a stampede-like sell-off once it started.
Crude oil is like this— it trades on macro risk-asset headlines.
As mentioned earlier, as long as both Iran and Trump are reigniting the war under pressure rather than choosing it freely, a full-scale war won’t break out.
So once there’s news of a pause, oil prices will quickly cool down.
Based on current signs, that seems to be true.
But we haven’t yet entered a phase of certain, negotiated ceasefire.
Instead, it’s an unscripted, tacit ceasefire between both sides. This kind of pause may be tactical.
Once fighting resumes, oil prices will rebound again.
Technically, we’re also approaching a key support zone around 79–77. You can watch for signs of the sell-off easing here. If there’s another flare-up in the Middle East and it’s paired with Thursday’s interest rate decision or a “waiver/no-show” from Waller, the rebound will come.
【Crude Oil】
$CL
When we wake up in the morning, the U.S. stock market, crypto, gold, and crude oil are all falling. The usual inverse correlation response of oil to other assets has also disappeared.
The key point is that this time crude oil is dropping viciously, yet there hasn’t been much news about friendly negotiations between the two sides.
Yesterday, Trump said that negotiations with Iran would bring good news—then around the corner, Iran called it out and denied there were talks.
This round of decline is not only driven by the tacit ceasefire between the two sides (leading to the drop), but also by a stampede-like sell-off once it started.
Crude oil is like this— it trades on macro risk-asset headlines.
As mentioned earlier, as long as both Iran and Trump are reigniting the war under pressure rather than choosing it freely, a full-scale war won’t break out.
So once there’s news of a pause, oil prices will quickly cool down.
Based on current signs, that seems to be true.
But we haven’t yet entered a phase of certain, negotiated ceasefire.
Instead, it’s an unscripted, tacit ceasefire between both sides. This kind of pause may be tactical.
Once fighting resumes, oil prices will rebound again.
Technically, we’re also approaching a key support zone around 79–77. You can watch for signs of the sell-off easing here. If there’s another flare-up in the Middle East and it’s paired with Thursday’s interest rate decision or a “waiver/no-show” from Waller, the rebound will come.
【Crude Oil】
$CL
灯塔说
·
--
Let’s talk about the trading plan and review:
1. After Bitcoin adjusts, it continues to rise. The fundamentals are all supportive. In the short term, 67K is the key resistance. The long orders that started from 63K were triggered to take profit at 66.2K yesterday. Over the past two days, we adjusted within 65,880–65,500 and continued to go long. Deeper longs are at 64,500–64,000. Before next week’s rate decision meeting, if there is repeated choppy movement around 67K, we will still look to buy the dip—but we won’t chase too aggressively, because August data may be a downside catalyst for a pullback. $BTC
2. Gold: remind you twice again that the 4,000–3,960 range is where to build positions for longs. On the lower timeframe, a reversal has formed at the bottom, but on the 4-hour timeframe, the reversal point is at the key 4,200 level, syncing with fundamental factors. For July, the bullish target for gold is around 4,200. After the August adjustment, continue to buy the dip. For today, watch for longs at 4,090–4,080. Targets remain 4,180–4,200 $XAU
3. Oil: technically it’s biased bullish, but fundamentals have downside expectations. Oil is purely a risk asset. It clearly follows news sentiment. With the current ceasefire window showing up, after Trump pushes for ‘three-and-four’ conditions, negotiations will be accepted as well. That’s a near-term negative for oil. Compared with that, it’s a positive for Bitcoin and gold—using this positive is also why we continue to look for longs in Bitcoin and gold. However, oil will still see short-term pullbacks. After the adjustment, it should keep rising. The adjustment range is around 79–80. If the ceasefire move is larger, the expected adjustment target is around 71–72. $CL
4. Related to US stocks: recently there’s still a rebound, but it’s a sharp, high-volatility rebound. After the rebound, there will still be some adjustment.
Major fundamental items to watch:
1. This Thursday early morning: Google earnings report, which will affect the direction of tech and AI-related US stocks;
2. Next week: the PEC and the July FOMC rate decision meeting—Fed rate announcements and future expectations will impact everything;
3. Developments in Iran–Israel situation, oil-price impact, and the ceasefire negotiation window that may appear soon.
The above are my recent trading ideas and items to watch. These are for personal record only and do not constitute investment advice.
1. After Bitcoin adjusts, it continues to rise. The fundamentals are all supportive. In the short term, 67K is the key resistance. The long orders that started from 63K were triggered to take profit at 66.2K yesterday. Over the past two days, we adjusted within 65,880–65,500 and continued to go long. Deeper longs are at 64,500–64,000. Before next week’s rate decision meeting, if there is repeated choppy movement around 67K, we will still look to buy the dip—but we won’t chase too aggressively, because August data may be a downside catalyst for a pullback. $BTC
2. Gold: remind you twice again that the 4,000–3,960 range is where to build positions for longs. On the lower timeframe, a reversal has formed at the bottom, but on the 4-hour timeframe, the reversal point is at the key 4,200 level, syncing with fundamental factors. For July, the bullish target for gold is around 4,200. After the August adjustment, continue to buy the dip. For today, watch for longs at 4,090–4,080. Targets remain 4,180–4,200 $XAU
3. Oil: technically it’s biased bullish, but fundamentals have downside expectations. Oil is purely a risk asset. It clearly follows news sentiment. With the current ceasefire window showing up, after Trump pushes for ‘three-and-four’ conditions, negotiations will be accepted as well. That’s a near-term negative for oil. Compared with that, it’s a positive for Bitcoin and gold—using this positive is also why we continue to look for longs in Bitcoin and gold. However, oil will still see short-term pullbacks. After the adjustment, it should keep rising. The adjustment range is around 79–80. If the ceasefire move is larger, the expected adjustment target is around 71–72. $CL
4. Related to US stocks: recently there’s still a rebound, but it’s a sharp, high-volatility rebound. After the rebound, there will still be some adjustment.
Major fundamental items to watch:
1. This Thursday early morning: Google earnings report, which will affect the direction of tech and AI-related US stocks;
2. Next week: the PEC and the July FOMC rate decision meeting—Fed rate announcements and future expectations will impact everything;
3. Developments in Iran–Israel situation, oil-price impact, and the ceasefire negotiation window that may appear soon.
The above are my recent trading ideas and items to watch. These are for personal record only and do not constitute investment advice.
Verified
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
Some say that the interest rate decision in July is the hardest to predict so far
because market expectations split evenly between no change in rates and a rate hike.
The reason is also the recent surge in crude oil prices last week.
First, in my view, interest rates will basically be kept unchanged.
And for the coming period, expectations of rate hikes will only remain talk and won’t really materialize.
The Fed will neither cut rates nor raise rates right now. It won’t cut because inflation hasn’t been completely eradicated. If it even loosens slightly, prices could rebound violently at any time, and all the efforts from previous rate hikes would be for nothing—Powell would absolutely not take that risk.
It also won’t raise rates because current interest rates are already high. With inflation having declined somewhat, there’s no need for further hikes; otherwise, it would affect the U.S. economy, and the White House wouldn’t allow that.
At present, as long as the market doesn’t face extreme circumstances, it generally won’t easily raise or cut rates.
In this long winter of high interest rates, the market won’t see a broad-based surge—only differentiation. The investment money will become increasingly picky, funneling entirely into those tightly grouped “bonded” assets with a lot of cash on hand and that are genuinely making money month after month—hardcore assets (for example, the key beneficiaries of the AI capital expenditure cycle).
So, the bull market still needs time and we must be patient and wait!
$CL
$XAU
Some say that the interest rate decision in July is the hardest to predict so far
because market expectations split evenly between no change in rates and a rate hike.
The reason is also the recent surge in crude oil prices last week.
First, in my view, interest rates will basically be kept unchanged.
And for the coming period, expectations of rate hikes will only remain talk and won’t really materialize.
The Fed will neither cut rates nor raise rates right now. It won’t cut because inflation hasn’t been completely eradicated. If it even loosens slightly, prices could rebound violently at any time, and all the efforts from previous rate hikes would be for nothing—Powell would absolutely not take that risk.
It also won’t raise rates because current interest rates are already high. With inflation having declined somewhat, there’s no need for further hikes; otherwise, it would affect the U.S. economy, and the White House wouldn’t allow that.
At present, as long as the market doesn’t face extreme circumstances, it generally won’t easily raise or cut rates.
In this long winter of high interest rates, the market won’t see a broad-based surge—only differentiation. The investment money will become increasingly picky, funneling entirely into those tightly grouped “bonded” assets with a lot of cash on hand and that are genuinely making money month after month—hardcore assets (for example, the key beneficiaries of the AI capital expenditure cycle).
So, the bull market still needs time and we must be patient and wait!
$CL
$XAU
灯塔说
·
--
Let me talk about the trading:
We’re still mainly focusing on BTC, gold, crude oil, and some US stock index-related instruments.
Going forward, the main market theme will still revolve around the Fed’s interest rate hikes and cuts (US Treasuries and inflation).
As I mentioned last time: we’re currently still on the main track of rate cuts. Rate hikes are only expectations spoken about; when those expectations will actually materialize is unknown—it could remain just talk for a while.
So to summarize:
The macro theme is implicitly positive.
But the price action is a winding, upward path.
Because throughout the process, events like the situation in Iran-Iraq and other factors may repeatedly affect the market.
Price has already held above the 60,000 mark.
Now it’s going through repeated consolidation and waiting to firmly establish itself at the 65K–67K range.
The next hurdle is 71K–73K.
And the following one is 76K–78K.
Each hurdle may come with some back-and-forth.
But the main direction won’t change.
Buying the dips is the main theme. This includes the upcoming FOMC meeting window, next month’s Non-Farm Payrolls data, and CPI data. If you enter at dip-buying opportunities several times, the impact is likely to be only slightly bearish, but these are still opportunities to buy the dips.
In the near term, it’s a good time to trade swings. You can switch to a swing-trading strategy.
$BTC $XAU
We’re still mainly focusing on BTC, gold, crude oil, and some US stock index-related instruments.
Going forward, the main market theme will still revolve around the Fed’s interest rate hikes and cuts (US Treasuries and inflation).
As I mentioned last time: we’re currently still on the main track of rate cuts. Rate hikes are only expectations spoken about; when those expectations will actually materialize is unknown—it could remain just talk for a while.
So to summarize:
The macro theme is implicitly positive.
But the price action is a winding, upward path.
Because throughout the process, events like the situation in Iran-Iraq and other factors may repeatedly affect the market.
Price has already held above the 60,000 mark.
Now it’s going through repeated consolidation and waiting to firmly establish itself at the 65K–67K range.
The next hurdle is 71K–73K.
And the following one is 76K–78K.
Each hurdle may come with some back-and-forth.
But the main direction won’t change.
Buying the dips is the main theme. This includes the upcoming FOMC meeting window, next month’s Non-Farm Payrolls data, and CPI data. If you enter at dip-buying opportunities several times, the impact is likely to be only slightly bearish, but these are still opportunities to buy the dips.
In the near term, it’s a good time to trade swings. You can switch to a swing-trading strategy.
$BTC $XAU
Let me talk about the trading:
We’re still mainly focusing on BTC, gold, crude oil, and some US stock index-related instruments.
Going forward, the main market theme will still revolve around the Fed’s interest rate hikes and cuts (US Treasuries and inflation).
As I mentioned last time: we’re currently still on the main track of rate cuts. Rate hikes are only expectations spoken about; when those expectations will actually materialize is unknown—it could remain just talk for a while.
So to summarize:
The macro theme is implicitly positive.
But the price action is a winding, upward path.
Because throughout the process, events like the situation in Iran-Iraq and other factors may repeatedly affect the market.
Price has already held above the 60,000 mark.
Now it’s going through repeated consolidation and waiting to firmly establish itself at the 65K–67K range.
The next hurdle is 71K–73K.
And the following one is 76K–78K.
Each hurdle may come with some back-and-forth.
But the main direction won’t change.
Buying the dips is the main theme. This includes the upcoming FOMC meeting window, next month’s Non-Farm Payrolls data, and CPI data. If you enter at dip-buying opportunities several times, the impact is likely to be only slightly bearish, but these are still opportunities to buy the dips.
In the near term, it’s a good time to trade swings. You can switch to a swing-trading strategy.
$BTC $XAU
We’re still mainly focusing on BTC, gold, crude oil, and some US stock index-related instruments.
Going forward, the main market theme will still revolve around the Fed’s interest rate hikes and cuts (US Treasuries and inflation).
As I mentioned last time: we’re currently still on the main track of rate cuts. Rate hikes are only expectations spoken about; when those expectations will actually materialize is unknown—it could remain just talk for a while.
So to summarize:
The macro theme is implicitly positive.
But the price action is a winding, upward path.
Because throughout the process, events like the situation in Iran-Iraq and other factors may repeatedly affect the market.
Price has already held above the 60,000 mark.
Now it’s going through repeated consolidation and waiting to firmly establish itself at the 65K–67K range.
The next hurdle is 71K–73K.
And the following one is 76K–78K.
Each hurdle may come with some back-and-forth.
But the main direction won’t change.
Buying the dips is the main theme. This includes the upcoming FOMC meeting window, next month’s Non-Farm Payrolls data, and CPI data. If you enter at dip-buying opportunities several times, the impact is likely to be only slightly bearish, but these are still opportunities to buy the dips.
In the near term, it’s a good time to trade swings. You can switch to a swing-trading strategy.
$BTC $XAU
灯塔说
·
--
Haven’t updated in three days.
Missed it?
Today, let’s first talk about the basic fundamentals for this week:
Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region cooled off somewhat in the short term. Brent crude fell by about 5.2% at one point, WTI dropped by about 5.4%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated in tandem, and U.S. stock index futures rebounded. This combination is beneficial for crypto in the short term because it simultaneously eases inflation and the expectation of tighter liquidity.
However, the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Official sources show that the FOMC will hold a meeting on July 28–29. The statement will be released at around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, followed by a press conference by the chair at 2:30. The market is currently pricing in roughly a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty around this meeting is clearly higher than that of a typical policy meeting.
Then, at 20:30 Beijing time on July 30, the U.S. will release the initial estimate of Q2 GDP and June PCE at the same time. At 20:30 on July 31, the Q2 employment cost index will be released. In other words, in the second half of this week there will be a continuous window of macro volatility.
As for ETF fund flows, the picture has improved but remains unstable:
On July 24, spot BTC ETF net outflows were about $240.1 million, ending the previous streak of net inflows;
Spot ETH ETF net outflows were about $70.7 million that day;
But for ETH over the week, net inflows were still about $103.9 million, and from July to date, net inflows are about $337.7 million.
This suggests institutional demand has improved compared with June, but it’s still not enough to confirm sustained one-way net inflows.
In the next post, we’ll talk about the market!
$BTC $XAU
Missed it?
Today, let’s first talk about the basic fundamentals for this week:
Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region cooled off somewhat in the short term. Brent crude fell by about 5.2% at one point, WTI dropped by about 5.4%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated in tandem, and U.S. stock index futures rebounded. This combination is beneficial for crypto in the short term because it simultaneously eases inflation and the expectation of tighter liquidity.
However, the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Official sources show that the FOMC will hold a meeting on July 28–29. The statement will be released at around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, followed by a press conference by the chair at 2:30. The market is currently pricing in roughly a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty around this meeting is clearly higher than that of a typical policy meeting.
Then, at 20:30 Beijing time on July 30, the U.S. will release the initial estimate of Q2 GDP and June PCE at the same time. At 20:30 on July 31, the Q2 employment cost index will be released. In other words, in the second half of this week there will be a continuous window of macro volatility.
As for ETF fund flows, the picture has improved but remains unstable:
On July 24, spot BTC ETF net outflows were about $240.1 million, ending the previous streak of net inflows;
Spot ETH ETF net outflows were about $70.7 million that day;
But for ETH over the week, net inflows were still about $103.9 million, and from July to date, net inflows are about $337.7 million.
This suggests institutional demand has improved compared with June, but it’s still not enough to confirm sustained one-way net inflows.
In the next post, we’ll talk about the market!
$BTC $XAU
Haven’t updated in three days.
Missed it?
Today, let’s first talk about the basic fundamentals for this week:
Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region cooled off somewhat in the short term. Brent crude fell by about 5.2% at one point, WTI dropped by about 5.4%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated in tandem, and U.S. stock index futures rebounded. This combination is beneficial for crypto in the short term because it simultaneously eases inflation and the expectation of tighter liquidity.
However, the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Official sources show that the FOMC will hold a meeting on July 28–29. The statement will be released at around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, followed by a press conference by the chair at 2:30. The market is currently pricing in roughly a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty around this meeting is clearly higher than that of a typical policy meeting.
Then, at 20:30 Beijing time on July 30, the U.S. will release the initial estimate of Q2 GDP and June PCE at the same time. At 20:30 on July 31, the Q2 employment cost index will be released. In other words, in the second half of this week there will be a continuous window of macro volatility.
As for ETF fund flows, the picture has improved but remains unstable:
On July 24, spot BTC ETF net outflows were about $240.1 million, ending the previous streak of net inflows;
Spot ETH ETF net outflows were about $70.7 million that day;
But for ETH over the week, net inflows were still about $103.9 million, and from July to date, net inflows are about $337.7 million.
This suggests institutional demand has improved compared with June, but it’s still not enough to confirm sustained one-way net inflows.
In the next post, we’ll talk about the market!
$BTC $XAU
Missed it?
Today, let’s first talk about the basic fundamentals for this week:
Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region cooled off somewhat in the short term. Brent crude fell by about 5.2% at one point, WTI dropped by about 5.4%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated in tandem, and U.S. stock index futures rebounded. This combination is beneficial for crypto in the short term because it simultaneously eases inflation and the expectation of tighter liquidity.
However, the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Official sources show that the FOMC will hold a meeting on July 28–29. The statement will be released at around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, followed by a press conference by the chair at 2:30. The market is currently pricing in roughly a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty around this meeting is clearly higher than that of a typical policy meeting.
Then, at 20:30 Beijing time on July 30, the U.S. will release the initial estimate of Q2 GDP and June PCE at the same time. At 20:30 on July 31, the Q2 employment cost index will be released. In other words, in the second half of this week there will be a continuous window of macro volatility.
As for ETF fund flows, the picture has improved but remains unstable:
On July 24, spot BTC ETF net outflows were about $240.1 million, ending the previous streak of net inflows;
Spot ETH ETF net outflows were about $70.7 million that day;
But for ETH over the week, net inflows were still about $103.9 million, and from July to date, net inflows are about $337.7 million.
This suggests institutional demand has improved compared with June, but it’s still not enough to confirm sustained one-way net inflows.
In the next post, we’ll talk about the market!
$BTC $XAU
#原油期货涨超4%
Didn’t expect this time
both Iran and Trump are being this tough
not holding back at all
The current macro environment is arriving
faster and bigger than expected
and is clearly unfavorable for risk assets
As of now:
The U.S. Dollar Index has risen to about 101.45,
near the three-week high;
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen to about 4.71%,
with the 30-year above 5.1%.
Oil prices have broken back above $100;
Middle East shipping risks and America’s next round of tariffs
are jointly pushing up inflation expectations.
For BTC, gold, and tech stocks,
this means triple pressure from
real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and risk premium.
And this hasn’t even reached August—
we’ve already started being suppressed into a pullback.
The most crucial thing this month is:
the status of the U.S.-Iran situation
and what happens around the Fed’s policy meeting on the 28th–29th.$XAU
$CL $BTC
Didn’t expect this time
both Iran and Trump are being this tough
not holding back at all
The current macro environment is arriving
faster and bigger than expected
and is clearly unfavorable for risk assets
As of now:
The U.S. Dollar Index has risen to about 101.45,
near the three-week high;
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen to about 4.71%,
with the 30-year above 5.1%.
Oil prices have broken back above $100;
Middle East shipping risks and America’s next round of tariffs
are jointly pushing up inflation expectations.
For BTC, gold, and tech stocks,
this means triple pressure from
real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and risk premium.
And this hasn’t even reached August—
we’ve already started being suppressed into a pullback.
The most crucial thing this month is:
the status of the U.S.-Iran situation
and what happens around the Fed’s policy meeting on the 28th–29th.$XAU
$CL $BTC
Today’s Trading Recap (Continuing from the previous macro fundamental analysis):
The high-cycle rebound has not ended yet, while the low-cycle has already moved into a correction.
BTC’s 4-hour upward structure remains intact, but the 1-hour and 15-minute timeframes have already formed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and price is currently searching downward for liquidity.
ETH’s 4-hour structure is stronger than BTC’s, but it has entered the daily supply zone. Moreover, the short-term new bearish signals are more pronounced than BTC’s, so ETH may first dip lower and then decide whether to squeeze shorts.
The 659–656 support range mentioned yesterday did not lead to new highs. Meanwhile, fundamentals show crude oil continuing to rise and major tech leaders’ earnings cooling off, so today the market keeps searching for new support points.
$BTC — On the 15-minute timeframe, watch support at 655–653. If it breaks, pay attention to the hour chart’s key support at 645–640 for going long. Until price has reclaimed and held above 663–666, continue to maintain the hour-chart internal consolidation/adjustment.
In simple terms, today’s plan is to watch the 15-minute support on the short term, wait for long entries at 645–640 on the hour chart, first rebound near 662 for short entries.
$ETH — For ETH short-term: short on rebounds at 1935–1948, or short around 1955–1962.
Continuously watch developments in the Iran–Israel situation. If a mediation/truce window appears, stop placing short (kong) trades.
$XAU (Gold): The 4-hour rebound structure is good. The 1-hour timeframe is in a correction. Today, continue waiting to go long at 4090–4080. The target is still 4180–4200.
【Risk Warning: Sharing only personal trading records; not investment advice】
The high-cycle rebound has not ended yet, while the low-cycle has already moved into a correction.
BTC’s 4-hour upward structure remains intact, but the 1-hour and 15-minute timeframes have already formed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and price is currently searching downward for liquidity.
ETH’s 4-hour structure is stronger than BTC’s, but it has entered the daily supply zone. Moreover, the short-term new bearish signals are more pronounced than BTC’s, so ETH may first dip lower and then decide whether to squeeze shorts.
The 659–656 support range mentioned yesterday did not lead to new highs. Meanwhile, fundamentals show crude oil continuing to rise and major tech leaders’ earnings cooling off, so today the market keeps searching for new support points.
$BTC — On the 15-minute timeframe, watch support at 655–653. If it breaks, pay attention to the hour chart’s key support at 645–640 for going long. Until price has reclaimed and held above 663–666, continue to maintain the hour-chart internal consolidation/adjustment.
In simple terms, today’s plan is to watch the 15-minute support on the short term, wait for long entries at 645–640 on the hour chart, first rebound near 662 for short entries.
$ETH — For ETH short-term: short on rebounds at 1935–1948, or short around 1955–1962.
Continuously watch developments in the Iran–Israel situation. If a mediation/truce window appears, stop placing short (kong) trades.
$XAU (Gold): The 4-hour rebound structure is good. The 1-hour timeframe is in a correction. Today, continue waiting to go long at 4090–4080. The target is still 4180–4200.
【Risk Warning: Sharing only personal trading records; not investment advice】
灯塔说
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The rebound is unlikely to be sustained in the short term; wait for adjustments before setting up the next wave of long positions.
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have flared up again. Brent crude has risen to around $94–95, and WTI crude has broken above $88. The market is once again concerned about energy prices transmitting to inflation. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. two-year Treasuries has risen to about 4.3%, and market pricing for a July rate hike briefly climbed to roughly 33.7%. At the same time, the Nasdaq fell by about 0.6% on Wednesday, and risk appetite cooled further after tech leaders reported earnings.
The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 28–29. Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, U.S. initial jobless claims will also be released. If the subsequent data continues to show employment resilience, it may further strengthen hawkish expectations.
Within the crypto market, however, there is some support. As of July 21, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for six straight trading days, with inflows on July 21 of about $203.2 million. However, Farside currently shows that the preliminary inflow on July 22 is only about $8.8 million, indicating that while capital is still flowing in, the marginal momentum has clearly weakened, and the current data may still be subject to reporting delays.
So, for now, the fundamentals are:
ETF flows are propping up the downside, while crude oil, interest rates, and FOMC expectations are capping the upside. The market can rebound, but for the time being it lacks macro conditions that would enable a sustained breakout and acceleration.
$BTC
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have flared up again. Brent crude has risen to around $94–95, and WTI crude has broken above $88. The market is once again concerned about energy prices transmitting to inflation. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. two-year Treasuries has risen to about 4.3%, and market pricing for a July rate hike briefly climbed to roughly 33.7%. At the same time, the Nasdaq fell by about 0.6% on Wednesday, and risk appetite cooled further after tech leaders reported earnings.
The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 28–29. Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, U.S. initial jobless claims will also be released. If the subsequent data continues to show employment resilience, it may further strengthen hawkish expectations.
Within the crypto market, however, there is some support. As of July 21, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for six straight trading days, with inflows on July 21 of about $203.2 million. However, Farside currently shows that the preliminary inflow on July 22 is only about $8.8 million, indicating that while capital is still flowing in, the marginal momentum has clearly weakened, and the current data may still be subject to reporting delays.
So, for now, the fundamentals are:
ETF flows are propping up the downside, while crude oil, interest rates, and FOMC expectations are capping the upside. The market can rebound, but for the time being it lacks macro conditions that would enable a sustained breakout and acceleration.
$BTC
The rebound is unlikely to be sustained in the short term; wait for adjustments before setting up the next wave of long positions.
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have flared up again. Brent crude has risen to around $94–95, and WTI crude has broken above $88. The market is once again concerned about energy prices transmitting to inflation. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. two-year Treasuries has risen to about 4.3%, and market pricing for a July rate hike briefly climbed to roughly 33.7%. At the same time, the Nasdaq fell by about 0.6% on Wednesday, and risk appetite cooled further after tech leaders reported earnings.
The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 28–29. Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, U.S. initial jobless claims will also be released. If the subsequent data continues to show employment resilience, it may further strengthen hawkish expectations.
Within the crypto market, however, there is some support. As of July 21, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for six straight trading days, with inflows on July 21 of about $203.2 million. However, Farside currently shows that the preliminary inflow on July 22 is only about $8.8 million, indicating that while capital is still flowing in, the marginal momentum has clearly weakened, and the current data may still be subject to reporting delays.
So, for now, the fundamentals are:
ETF flows are propping up the downside, while crude oil, interest rates, and FOMC expectations are capping the upside. The market can rebound, but for the time being it lacks macro conditions that would enable a sustained breakout and acceleration.
$BTC
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have flared up again. Brent crude has risen to around $94–95, and WTI crude has broken above $88. The market is once again concerned about energy prices transmitting to inflation. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. two-year Treasuries has risen to about 4.3%, and market pricing for a July rate hike briefly climbed to roughly 33.7%. At the same time, the Nasdaq fell by about 0.6% on Wednesday, and risk appetite cooled further after tech leaders reported earnings.
The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 28–29. Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, U.S. initial jobless claims will also be released. If the subsequent data continues to show employment resilience, it may further strengthen hawkish expectations.
Within the crypto market, however, there is some support. As of July 21, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for six straight trading days, with inflows on July 21 of about $203.2 million. However, Farside currently shows that the preliminary inflow on July 22 is only about $8.8 million, indicating that while capital is still flowing in, the marginal momentum has clearly weakened, and the current data may still be subject to reporting delays.
So, for now, the fundamentals are:
ETF flows are propping up the downside, while crude oil, interest rates, and FOMC expectations are capping the upside. The market can rebound, but for the time being it lacks macro conditions that would enable a sustained breakout and acceleration.
$BTC
灯塔说
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《AI Monetization Logic Mid-Year Major Exam》
At around 2:00 a.m. on the 23rd, Google is about to release its latest quarterly earnings report. This report is not only about Google itself; at its core, it is the mid-year major test for the market’s “AI monetization logic,” and a barometer of sentiment for recent U.S. stocks—and even for the entire macro risk-asset complex.
Current Market Pricing and Expectations
Wall Street’s consensus expectations have already been priced in very aggressively: total revenue of about $116.8 billion (YoY +21%), with EPS (earnings per share) expected to be $2.89. But that’s just the surface. The real deciding factor—the make-or-break key—is Google Cloud. The market is extremely hungry for it to deliver astonishing cloud business growth of as much as 60%+ to prove that the heavy investments made earlier have not been wasted.
The practical impact on trading isn’t about how impressive the statements look; it’s about how large funds will reassess risk appetite based on what they see. There are two angles:
1) If the report beats expectations across the board and guidance is strong
This is the script that stabilizes everything. If Google proves that AI spending can translate into real cash conversion, this “anchoring needle” can hold up the entire hardware and semiconductor supply chain (NVIDIA, TSMC). Once Nasdaq long sentiment steadies, the resulting tailwind in liquidity can directly spill over, providing strong support to overall AI U.S. equities.
2) If the report falls short, or if Capex (capital expenditures) stays high while revenue guidance is weak
This is the biggest tail risk in the current market setup. Under a consensus that the AI theme is extremely crowded, tolerance for disappointment is very low. As soon as the report hints at a sign of “pumping money with no easy monetization,” it will instantly trigger panic about AI investment returns. That kind of panic can lead the Nasdaq to spearhead valuation cuts, and then drive indiscriminate deleveraging across asset classes (De-risking).
How should we operate and respond?
1. My suggestion: don’t chase long positions on the left side; reduce exposure ahead of the earnings release.
2. Watch the leading indicators closely: if the earnings release triggers a big selloff that’s worse than expected, don’t rush to buy Google. First, assess how well the semiconductor sector—SMH—absorbs the move. If even those selling shovels get dragged down, it means the macro narrative along the main trade is wobbling, and exposure must be reduced decisively.
The market is too crowded right now. As long as the earnings report isn’t “perfect enough,” it becomes a negative catalyst. Keep your ammunition and wait for direction confirmation.
$GOOG.US
At around 2:00 a.m. on the 23rd, Google is about to release its latest quarterly earnings report. This report is not only about Google itself; at its core, it is the mid-year major test for the market’s “AI monetization logic,” and a barometer of sentiment for recent U.S. stocks—and even for the entire macro risk-asset complex.
Current Market Pricing and Expectations
Wall Street’s consensus expectations have already been priced in very aggressively: total revenue of about $116.8 billion (YoY +21%), with EPS (earnings per share) expected to be $2.89. But that’s just the surface. The real deciding factor—the make-or-break key—is Google Cloud. The market is extremely hungry for it to deliver astonishing cloud business growth of as much as 60%+ to prove that the heavy investments made earlier have not been wasted.
The practical impact on trading isn’t about how impressive the statements look; it’s about how large funds will reassess risk appetite based on what they see. There are two angles:
1) If the report beats expectations across the board and guidance is strong
This is the script that stabilizes everything. If Google proves that AI spending can translate into real cash conversion, this “anchoring needle” can hold up the entire hardware and semiconductor supply chain (NVIDIA, TSMC). Once Nasdaq long sentiment steadies, the resulting tailwind in liquidity can directly spill over, providing strong support to overall AI U.S. equities.
2) If the report falls short, or if Capex (capital expenditures) stays high while revenue guidance is weak
This is the biggest tail risk in the current market setup. Under a consensus that the AI theme is extremely crowded, tolerance for disappointment is very low. As soon as the report hints at a sign of “pumping money with no easy monetization,” it will instantly trigger panic about AI investment returns. That kind of panic can lead the Nasdaq to spearhead valuation cuts, and then drive indiscriminate deleveraging across asset classes (De-risking).
How should we operate and respond?
1. My suggestion: don’t chase long positions on the left side; reduce exposure ahead of the earnings release.
2. Watch the leading indicators closely: if the earnings release triggers a big selloff that’s worse than expected, don’t rush to buy Google. First, assess how well the semiconductor sector—SMH—absorbs the move. If even those selling shovels get dragged down, it means the macro narrative along the main trade is wobbling, and exposure must be reduced decisively.
The market is too crowded right now. As long as the earnings report isn’t “perfect enough,” it becomes a negative catalyst. Keep your ammunition and wait for direction confirmation.
$GOOG.US
Verified
《AI Monetization Logic Mid-Year Major Exam》
At around 2:00 a.m. on the 23rd, Google is about to release its latest quarterly earnings report. This report is not only about Google itself; at its core, it is the mid-year major test for the market’s “AI monetization logic,” and a barometer of sentiment for recent U.S. stocks—and even for the entire macro risk-asset complex.
Current Market Pricing and Expectations
Wall Street’s consensus expectations have already been priced in very aggressively: total revenue of about $116.8 billion (YoY +21%), with EPS (earnings per share) expected to be $2.89. But that’s just the surface. The real deciding factor—the make-or-break key—is Google Cloud. The market is extremely hungry for it to deliver astonishing cloud business growth of as much as 60%+ to prove that the heavy investments made earlier have not been wasted.
The practical impact on trading isn’t about how impressive the statements look; it’s about how large funds will reassess risk appetite based on what they see. There are two angles:
1) If the report beats expectations across the board and guidance is strong
This is the script that stabilizes everything. If Google proves that AI spending can translate into real cash conversion, this “anchoring needle” can hold up the entire hardware and semiconductor supply chain (NVIDIA, TSMC). Once Nasdaq long sentiment steadies, the resulting tailwind in liquidity can directly spill over, providing strong support to overall AI U.S. equities.
2) If the report falls short, or if Capex (capital expenditures) stays high while revenue guidance is weak
This is the biggest tail risk in the current market setup. Under a consensus that the AI theme is extremely crowded, tolerance for disappointment is very low. As soon as the report hints at a sign of “pumping money with no easy monetization,” it will instantly trigger panic about AI investment returns. That kind of panic can lead the Nasdaq to spearhead valuation cuts, and then drive indiscriminate deleveraging across asset classes (De-risking).
How should we operate and respond?
1. My suggestion: don’t chase long positions on the left side; reduce exposure ahead of the earnings release.
2. Watch the leading indicators closely: if the earnings release triggers a big selloff that’s worse than expected, don’t rush to buy Google. First, assess how well the semiconductor sector—SMH—absorbs the move. If even those selling shovels get dragged down, it means the macro narrative along the main trade is wobbling, and exposure must be reduced decisively.
The market is too crowded right now. As long as the earnings report isn’t “perfect enough,” it becomes a negative catalyst. Keep your ammunition and wait for direction confirmation.
$GOOG.US
At around 2:00 a.m. on the 23rd, Google is about to release its latest quarterly earnings report. This report is not only about Google itself; at its core, it is the mid-year major test for the market’s “AI monetization logic,” and a barometer of sentiment for recent U.S. stocks—and even for the entire macro risk-asset complex.
Current Market Pricing and Expectations
Wall Street’s consensus expectations have already been priced in very aggressively: total revenue of about $116.8 billion (YoY +21%), with EPS (earnings per share) expected to be $2.89. But that’s just the surface. The real deciding factor—the make-or-break key—is Google Cloud. The market is extremely hungry for it to deliver astonishing cloud business growth of as much as 60%+ to prove that the heavy investments made earlier have not been wasted.
The practical impact on trading isn’t about how impressive the statements look; it’s about how large funds will reassess risk appetite based on what they see. There are two angles:
1) If the report beats expectations across the board and guidance is strong
This is the script that stabilizes everything. If Google proves that AI spending can translate into real cash conversion, this “anchoring needle” can hold up the entire hardware and semiconductor supply chain (NVIDIA, TSMC). Once Nasdaq long sentiment steadies, the resulting tailwind in liquidity can directly spill over, providing strong support to overall AI U.S. equities.
2) If the report falls short, or if Capex (capital expenditures) stays high while revenue guidance is weak
This is the biggest tail risk in the current market setup. Under a consensus that the AI theme is extremely crowded, tolerance for disappointment is very low. As soon as the report hints at a sign of “pumping money with no easy monetization,” it will instantly trigger panic about AI investment returns. That kind of panic can lead the Nasdaq to spearhead valuation cuts, and then drive indiscriminate deleveraging across asset classes (De-risking).
How should we operate and respond?
1. My suggestion: don’t chase long positions on the left side; reduce exposure ahead of the earnings release.
2. Watch the leading indicators closely: if the earnings release triggers a big selloff that’s worse than expected, don’t rush to buy Google. First, assess how well the semiconductor sector—SMH—absorbs the move. If even those selling shovels get dragged down, it means the macro narrative along the main trade is wobbling, and exposure must be reduced decisively.
The market is too crowded right now. As long as the earnings report isn’t “perfect enough,” it becomes a negative catalyst. Keep your ammunition and wait for direction confirmation.
$GOOG.US
GOOGLonAlpha
SMHETF-2.16%
Let’s talk about the trading plan and review:
1. After Bitcoin adjusts, it continues to rise. The fundamentals are all supportive. In the short term, 67K is the key resistance. The long orders that started from 63K were triggered to take profit at 66.2K yesterday. Over the past two days, we adjusted within 65,880–65,500 and continued to go long. Deeper longs are at 64,500–64,000. Before next week’s rate decision meeting, if there is repeated choppy movement around 67K, we will still look to buy the dip—but we won’t chase too aggressively, because August data may be a downside catalyst for a pullback. $BTC
2. Gold: remind you twice again that the 4,000–3,960 range is where to build positions for longs. On the lower timeframe, a reversal has formed at the bottom, but on the 4-hour timeframe, the reversal point is at the key 4,200 level, syncing with fundamental factors. For July, the bullish target for gold is around 4,200. After the August adjustment, continue to buy the dip. For today, watch for longs at 4,090–4,080. Targets remain 4,180–4,200 $XAU
3. Oil: technically it’s biased bullish, but fundamentals have downside expectations. Oil is purely a risk asset. It clearly follows news sentiment. With the current ceasefire window showing up, after Trump pushes for ‘three-and-four’ conditions, negotiations will be accepted as well. That’s a near-term negative for oil. Compared with that, it’s a positive for Bitcoin and gold—using this positive is also why we continue to look for longs in Bitcoin and gold. However, oil will still see short-term pullbacks. After the adjustment, it should keep rising. The adjustment range is around 79–80. If the ceasefire move is larger, the expected adjustment target is around 71–72. $CL
4. Related to US stocks: recently there’s still a rebound, but it’s a sharp, high-volatility rebound. After the rebound, there will still be some adjustment.
Major fundamental items to watch:
1. This Thursday early morning: Google earnings report, which will affect the direction of tech and AI-related US stocks;
2. Next week: the PEC and the July FOMC rate decision meeting—Fed rate announcements and future expectations will impact everything;
3. Developments in Iran–Israel situation, oil-price impact, and the ceasefire negotiation window that may appear soon.
The above are my recent trading ideas and items to watch. These are for personal record only and do not constitute investment advice.
1. After Bitcoin adjusts, it continues to rise. The fundamentals are all supportive. In the short term, 67K is the key resistance. The long orders that started from 63K were triggered to take profit at 66.2K yesterday. Over the past two days, we adjusted within 65,880–65,500 and continued to go long. Deeper longs are at 64,500–64,000. Before next week’s rate decision meeting, if there is repeated choppy movement around 67K, we will still look to buy the dip—but we won’t chase too aggressively, because August data may be a downside catalyst for a pullback. $BTC
2. Gold: remind you twice again that the 4,000–3,960 range is where to build positions for longs. On the lower timeframe, a reversal has formed at the bottom, but on the 4-hour timeframe, the reversal point is at the key 4,200 level, syncing with fundamental factors. For July, the bullish target for gold is around 4,200. After the August adjustment, continue to buy the dip. For today, watch for longs at 4,090–4,080. Targets remain 4,180–4,200 $XAU
3. Oil: technically it’s biased bullish, but fundamentals have downside expectations. Oil is purely a risk asset. It clearly follows news sentiment. With the current ceasefire window showing up, after Trump pushes for ‘three-and-four’ conditions, negotiations will be accepted as well. That’s a near-term negative for oil. Compared with that, it’s a positive for Bitcoin and gold—using this positive is also why we continue to look for longs in Bitcoin and gold. However, oil will still see short-term pullbacks. After the adjustment, it should keep rising. The adjustment range is around 79–80. If the ceasefire move is larger, the expected adjustment target is around 71–72. $CL
4. Related to US stocks: recently there’s still a rebound, but it’s a sharp, high-volatility rebound. After the rebound, there will still be some adjustment.
Major fundamental items to watch:
1. This Thursday early morning: Google earnings report, which will affect the direction of tech and AI-related US stocks;
2. Next week: the PEC and the July FOMC rate decision meeting—Fed rate announcements and future expectations will impact everything;
3. Developments in Iran–Israel situation, oil-price impact, and the ceasefire negotiation window that may appear soon.
The above are my recent trading ideas and items to watch. These are for personal record only and do not constitute investment advice.
灯塔说
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Why didn’t the first “ceasefire” window after the re-escalation of the situation between Iran and the US cool down oil prices?
Yesterday, Iran first proposed a 10-day ceasefire
In the evening, Trump wasn’t interested
(Probably because Iran opened a crude oil short, and Trump’s long position hasn’t been closed yet)
Today, the U.S. secretary of state said he is open to talks
But these updates didn’t cool oil prices—instead, they kept rising
This should be “the spokesperson” getting it wrong, and it has remained only talk
However, since there are signs of this, more voices calling for short-term ceasefires will likely appear soon. The market will watch Trump’s tone (when to take profit on the longs)
Yesterday, Iran proposed a “temporary ceasefire,” opening an 82 short, but it didn’t get a further response. When they woke up, they got stopped out
Recently, stocks, gold, and oil have all been rising across the board. Stocks have been profitable on the long side, while those short on oil have been losing
But as long as the “temporary ceasefire” window is reached, oil prices will quickly cool down.
$WTI.US $CL
Yesterday, Iran first proposed a 10-day ceasefire
In the evening, Trump wasn’t interested
(Probably because Iran opened a crude oil short, and Trump’s long position hasn’t been closed yet)
Today, the U.S. secretary of state said he is open to talks
But these updates didn’t cool oil prices—instead, they kept rising
This should be “the spokesperson” getting it wrong, and it has remained only talk
However, since there are signs of this, more voices calling for short-term ceasefires will likely appear soon. The market will watch Trump’s tone (when to take profit on the longs)
Yesterday, Iran proposed a “temporary ceasefire,” opening an 82 short, but it didn’t get a further response. When they woke up, they got stopped out
Recently, stocks, gold, and oil have all been rising across the board. Stocks have been profitable on the long side, while those short on oil have been losing
But as long as the “temporary ceasefire” window is reached, oil prices will quickly cool down.
$WTI.US $CL
Partly True
Why didn’t the first “ceasefire” window after the re-escalation of the situation between Iran and the US cool down oil prices?
Yesterday, Iran first proposed a 10-day ceasefire
In the evening, Trump wasn’t interested
(Probably because Iran opened a crude oil short, and Trump’s long position hasn’t been closed yet)
Today, the U.S. secretary of state said he is open to talks
But these updates didn’t cool oil prices—instead, they kept rising
This should be “the spokesperson” getting it wrong, and it has remained only talk
However, since there are signs of this, more voices calling for short-term ceasefires will likely appear soon. The market will watch Trump’s tone (when to take profit on the longs)
Yesterday, Iran proposed a “temporary ceasefire,” opening an 82 short, but it didn’t get a further response. When they woke up, they got stopped out
Recently, stocks, gold, and oil have all been rising across the board. Stocks have been profitable on the long side, while those short on oil have been losing
But as long as the “temporary ceasefire” window is reached, oil prices will quickly cool down.
$WTI.US $CL
Yesterday, Iran first proposed a 10-day ceasefire
In the evening, Trump wasn’t interested
(Probably because Iran opened a crude oil short, and Trump’s long position hasn’t been closed yet)
Today, the U.S. secretary of state said he is open to talks
But these updates didn’t cool oil prices—instead, they kept rising
This should be “the spokesperson” getting it wrong, and it has remained only talk
However, since there are signs of this, more voices calling for short-term ceasefires will likely appear soon. The market will watch Trump’s tone (when to take profit on the longs)
Yesterday, Iran proposed a “temporary ceasefire,” opening an 82 short, but it didn’t get a further response. When they woke up, they got stopped out
Recently, stocks, gold, and oil have all been rising across the board. Stocks have been profitable on the long side, while those short on oil have been losing
But as long as the “temporary ceasefire” window is reached, oil prices will quickly cool down.
$WTI.US $CL
Bitcoin has broken through 66K.
Gold has also reached 4080.
When I wrote this piece over the weekend, I combined everything and concluded that 57K is the bottom, and that the future trend will be a sideways-to-upward rebound.
It’s mainly judged from the macro perspective, options, positioning/flows, and technicals.
In simple terms:
1. The main core is the macro fundamentals: Within 2026, the rate hikes will only “stop” in words; the demand for rate cuts outweighs inflation. Slightly higher inflation is already an accepted consensus. As long as the situation between Iran and the U.S. does not escalate into full-scale war, inflation will basically not deteriorate much. The negative impact here is visible.
But the market won’t rise in a straight line. The Fed will still occasionally release some data and issue a few “verbal” hawkish signals to ease public fears about inflation. This expectation gap will bring interim consolidation and shakeouts.
2. In addition, the options market’s real pricing for what comes next is clearly bullish. In the market today, based on the latest weekly report from Deribit, the options for August expiry show a mild bullish tilt. For IBIT spot ETF options on the major options platform BlackRock (IBIT), the long-side sentiment is extremely hungry: the call-to-put ratio is above 4:1. This suggests that some large institutions’ “smart money” is front-running through ETF options.
3. From a technical standpoint: although the daily timeframe downtrend hasn’t changed, the 4-hour structure has already shown a reversal. Next, you can look to enter during short-term pullbacks when negative data hits, as those are the best times to get on board. Every day’s retracement is the best entry point.
In the short term, watch the resistance zone at 66,500–67,300, and pay attention to whether a breakout above 67,300’s high is truly effective. If it breaks out effectively, the future outlook is 72K–73K.
Gold is also bullish from the bottom!
$BTC $XAU
Gold has also reached 4080.
When I wrote this piece over the weekend, I combined everything and concluded that 57K is the bottom, and that the future trend will be a sideways-to-upward rebound.
It’s mainly judged from the macro perspective, options, positioning/flows, and technicals.
In simple terms:
1. The main core is the macro fundamentals: Within 2026, the rate hikes will only “stop” in words; the demand for rate cuts outweighs inflation. Slightly higher inflation is already an accepted consensus. As long as the situation between Iran and the U.S. does not escalate into full-scale war, inflation will basically not deteriorate much. The negative impact here is visible.
But the market won’t rise in a straight line. The Fed will still occasionally release some data and issue a few “verbal” hawkish signals to ease public fears about inflation. This expectation gap will bring interim consolidation and shakeouts.
2. In addition, the options market’s real pricing for what comes next is clearly bullish. In the market today, based on the latest weekly report from Deribit, the options for August expiry show a mild bullish tilt. For IBIT spot ETF options on the major options platform BlackRock (IBIT), the long-side sentiment is extremely hungry: the call-to-put ratio is above 4:1. This suggests that some large institutions’ “smart money” is front-running through ETF options.
3. From a technical standpoint: although the daily timeframe downtrend hasn’t changed, the 4-hour structure has already shown a reversal. Next, you can look to enter during short-term pullbacks when negative data hits, as those are the best times to get on board. Every day’s retracement is the best entry point.
In the short term, watch the resistance zone at 66,500–67,300, and pay attention to whether a breakout above 67,300’s high is truly effective. If it breaks out effectively, the future outlook is 72K–73K.
Gold is also bullish from the bottom!
$BTC $XAU
灯塔说
·
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Oil prices are rising, and crypto and gold are rising as well. Has the market been de-sensitized?
Oil has quietly reached $82.8 today from yesterday.
It’s still affected by Iran’s strikes, hitting production facilities.
So I think the market’s expectations for the situation between the US and Iran are not good right now.
But what’s interesting is that from yesterday to today, as oil has risen, crypto and gold have risen along with it.
It’s almost like things have been de-sensitized.
This also shows that currently crypto’s bullish momentum relies more strongly on the upside from expectations of fewer/less aggressive interest rate hikes than on the longer-term expectation that further oil price increases will continue to affect next month’s inflation rebound.
By the end of the month, expectations for rate hikes have already dropped to the teens.
This month’s fundamentals are basically all supportive and sustained.
That’s also the basis for crypto to keep being positioned long at low levels.
Technically and fundamentally, the alignment for a continued long direction is expected to persist into early August.
But if the US–Iran situation continues to worsen without a window for improvement, then the August fundamentals at high oil prices will become a headwind.
At that time, there could be a 4-hour timeframe decline.
However, if within the next one to two weeks there is a window of relief for the US–Iran situation, that would be an additional positive for crypto.
Gold and crypto would then ride the momentum to climb to a higher level.
In summary: this month’s fundamentals are good.
I remain optimistic about the continued rebound in crypto and gold.
Even if next month’s data turns negative, the best low-buy opportunity after a sell-off would be created.
Simply put: the low point in June will very likely mark a cyclical bottom.
$XAU $BTC $CL
Oil has quietly reached $82.8 today from yesterday.
It’s still affected by Iran’s strikes, hitting production facilities.
So I think the market’s expectations for the situation between the US and Iran are not good right now.
But what’s interesting is that from yesterday to today, as oil has risen, crypto and gold have risen along with it.
It’s almost like things have been de-sensitized.
This also shows that currently crypto’s bullish momentum relies more strongly on the upside from expectations of fewer/less aggressive interest rate hikes than on the longer-term expectation that further oil price increases will continue to affect next month’s inflation rebound.
By the end of the month, expectations for rate hikes have already dropped to the teens.
This month’s fundamentals are basically all supportive and sustained.
That’s also the basis for crypto to keep being positioned long at low levels.
Technically and fundamentally, the alignment for a continued long direction is expected to persist into early August.
But if the US–Iran situation continues to worsen without a window for improvement, then the August fundamentals at high oil prices will become a headwind.
At that time, there could be a 4-hour timeframe decline.
However, if within the next one to two weeks there is a window of relief for the US–Iran situation, that would be an additional positive for crypto.
Gold and crypto would then ride the momentum to climb to a higher level.
In summary: this month’s fundamentals are good.
I remain optimistic about the continued rebound in crypto and gold.
Even if next month’s data turns negative, the best low-buy opportunity after a sell-off would be created.
Simply put: the low point in June will very likely mark a cyclical bottom.
$XAU $BTC $CL
In recent days, the market has been trending up, and today the fundamentals also brought some positive news:
1. ETF capital has flowed back again, providing support on the spot side
On July 20, the total net inflow into US spot BTC ETFs was approximately $226.8 million, while ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $38 million.
This means this uptrend is not entirely due to short-covering in the derivatives market. There is indeed incremental spot buying pressure, which is especially favorable for BTC.
However, it’s important to note that inflows on a single day can only provide short-term support. Only if net inflows are sustained for multiple consecutive days can the current situation truly change—particularly the previously relatively weak positioning of mid-term capital.
2. The macro environment is not purely “risk-on”
The market currently shows clear contradictions:
Softer-than-expected inflation data earlier helped risk assets recover, but the situation in the Middle East has heated up again. Brent crude briefly broke above $90, and yields on long-term US Treasuries rose. The market is once again pricing in the risk of energy-driven inflation. Stocks in the US closed lower overall on Monday, suggesting traditional risk assets have not fully confirmed a new expansion of risk appetite.
This explains the current characteristics of crypto prices:
The price is strong, but the macro environment hasn’t fully aligned.
Therefore, once oil prices, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields continue to rise, after BTC and ETH sweep through the liquidity above, a rapid pullback is likely.
3. The market enters “pre-FOMC” positioning and game
The Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC meeting on July 28–29. Then, on July 30, it will release the initial estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE.
This week lacks US economic data at the same level of significance. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by:
Middle East developments and oil prices;
US Treasury yields;
Earnings reports from large US tech companies;
BTC and ETH ETF fund flows;
These factors drive the move.
$XAU
$BTC
1. ETF capital has flowed back again, providing support on the spot side
On July 20, the total net inflow into US spot BTC ETFs was approximately $226.8 million, while ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $38 million.
This means this uptrend is not entirely due to short-covering in the derivatives market. There is indeed incremental spot buying pressure, which is especially favorable for BTC.
However, it’s important to note that inflows on a single day can only provide short-term support. Only if net inflows are sustained for multiple consecutive days can the current situation truly change—particularly the previously relatively weak positioning of mid-term capital.
2. The macro environment is not purely “risk-on”
The market currently shows clear contradictions:
Softer-than-expected inflation data earlier helped risk assets recover, but the situation in the Middle East has heated up again. Brent crude briefly broke above $90, and yields on long-term US Treasuries rose. The market is once again pricing in the risk of energy-driven inflation. Stocks in the US closed lower overall on Monday, suggesting traditional risk assets have not fully confirmed a new expansion of risk appetite.
This explains the current characteristics of crypto prices:
The price is strong, but the macro environment hasn’t fully aligned.
Therefore, once oil prices, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields continue to rise, after BTC and ETH sweep through the liquidity above, a rapid pullback is likely.
3. The market enters “pre-FOMC” positioning and game
The Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC meeting on July 28–29. Then, on July 30, it will release the initial estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE.
This week lacks US economic data at the same level of significance. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by:
Middle East developments and oil prices;
US Treasury yields;
Earnings reports from large US tech companies;
BTC and ETH ETF fund flows;
These factors drive the move.
$XAU
$BTC
Today, U.S. Federal Reserve “message bureau” Nick Timiraos leaked an important data point (see picture)
This time, he essentially nailed the core PCE to within 0.18%. And he even directly gave the overall PCE a negative value of -0.07%.
This isn’t a forecast.
This is the Fed, using his mouth, to quietly hand the answer to the market early.
The value of the so-called “new Fed press agency” is fully on display here—rather than being a financial journalist’s conjecture, it’s more like the policy side laying the final-mile groundwork for expectation management.
For us traders, the signal here is absolutely crushing:
Core PCE’s 0.18% month-over-month, annualized, is firmly within the Fed’s 2% target. And when overall PCE turns negative growth, it directly strikes inflation off the checklist of “policy constraints.” The rate-cut path and the easing pace— the biggest obstacle on the way has already been removed. What remains is mainly the timetable and magnitude.
Translating this onto the market: it’s essentially a “locked-in tell” for liquid assets:
The top for the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields is nailed down by this data, and in the near term it’s unlikely that anything will stir up major waves again. The macro foundation for gold is further reinforced—under the twin boosts of cooling inflation + rising easing expectations, the logic for gold to move higher is actually smoother. For risk assets like BTC and U.S. equities, the biggest funding-side nightmare over the past six months—“what if inflation flares up again?”—can, for now, be set aside.
But timing matters—there’s one detail worth watching:
Because the “leaking the answer early” has already become a market consensus, the bulls’ front-running pricing will have largely been completed before the actual data is released. On the day PCE is officially published, if the numbers come in as expected, you should also guard against a short-term washout driven by “good news already priced in.”
On the bigger cycle, the logic is now closed-loop:
Inflation constraint removed → easing path made smooth → liquid assets benefit. For the medium- to long-term framework of going long risk assets and gold on dips, the macro backing is now even firmer.
Don’t let short-term volatility shake you out of the train. That’s one of the reasons you’ve seen continued low-entry long positioning recently.
$BTC $XAU
Declaration of interest: currently holding long positions in gold and BTC.
[The above is only a personal trading framework share and does not constitute any investment advice]
This time, he essentially nailed the core PCE to within 0.18%. And he even directly gave the overall PCE a negative value of -0.07%.
This isn’t a forecast.
This is the Fed, using his mouth, to quietly hand the answer to the market early.
The value of the so-called “new Fed press agency” is fully on display here—rather than being a financial journalist’s conjecture, it’s more like the policy side laying the final-mile groundwork for expectation management.
For us traders, the signal here is absolutely crushing:
Core PCE’s 0.18% month-over-month, annualized, is firmly within the Fed’s 2% target. And when overall PCE turns negative growth, it directly strikes inflation off the checklist of “policy constraints.” The rate-cut path and the easing pace— the biggest obstacle on the way has already been removed. What remains is mainly the timetable and magnitude.
Translating this onto the market: it’s essentially a “locked-in tell” for liquid assets:
The top for the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields is nailed down by this data, and in the near term it’s unlikely that anything will stir up major waves again. The macro foundation for gold is further reinforced—under the twin boosts of cooling inflation + rising easing expectations, the logic for gold to move higher is actually smoother. For risk assets like BTC and U.S. equities, the biggest funding-side nightmare over the past six months—“what if inflation flares up again?”—can, for now, be set aside.
But timing matters—there’s one detail worth watching:
Because the “leaking the answer early” has already become a market consensus, the bulls’ front-running pricing will have largely been completed before the actual data is released. On the day PCE is officially published, if the numbers come in as expected, you should also guard against a short-term washout driven by “good news already priced in.”
On the bigger cycle, the logic is now closed-loop:
Inflation constraint removed → easing path made smooth → liquid assets benefit. For the medium- to long-term framework of going long risk assets and gold on dips, the macro backing is now even firmer.
Don’t let short-term volatility shake you out of the train. That’s one of the reasons you’ve seen continued low-entry long positioning recently.
$BTC $XAU
Declaration of interest: currently holding long positions in gold and BTC.
[The above is only a personal trading framework share and does not constitute any investment advice]
Lately, it feels like something is changing.
In the past, the biggest risk in the market
was always outside the United States.
Now, more and more uncertainty
is starting to come from within the United States itself.
What is truly worth paying attention to
is not a single policy shift.
It’s when the world begins to reassess:
who can still provide stability.
Because what the market ultimately trades
isn’t the news.
It’s expectations about the future order.
The value of gold’s future will keep rising
$XAU
In the past, the biggest risk in the market
was always outside the United States.
Now, more and more uncertainty
is starting to come from within the United States itself.
What is truly worth paying attention to
is not a single policy shift.
It’s when the world begins to reassess:
who can still provide stability.
Because what the market ultimately trades
isn’t the news.
It’s expectations about the future order.
The value of gold’s future will keep rising
$XAU
Oil prices are rising, and crypto and gold are rising as well. Has the market been de-sensitized?
Oil has quietly reached $82.8 today from yesterday.
It’s still affected by Iran’s strikes, hitting production facilities.
So I think the market’s expectations for the situation between the US and Iran are not good right now.
But what’s interesting is that from yesterday to today, as oil has risen, crypto and gold have risen along with it.
It’s almost like things have been de-sensitized.
This also shows that currently crypto’s bullish momentum relies more strongly on the upside from expectations of fewer/less aggressive interest rate hikes than on the longer-term expectation that further oil price increases will continue to affect next month’s inflation rebound.
By the end of the month, expectations for rate hikes have already dropped to the teens.
This month’s fundamentals are basically all supportive and sustained.
That’s also the basis for crypto to keep being positioned long at low levels.
Technically and fundamentally, the alignment for a continued long direction is expected to persist into early August.
But if the US–Iran situation continues to worsen without a window for improvement, then the August fundamentals at high oil prices will become a headwind.
At that time, there could be a 4-hour timeframe decline.
However, if within the next one to two weeks there is a window of relief for the US–Iran situation, that would be an additional positive for crypto.
Gold and crypto would then ride the momentum to climb to a higher level.
In summary: this month’s fundamentals are good.
I remain optimistic about the continued rebound in crypto and gold.
Even if next month’s data turns negative, the best low-buy opportunity after a sell-off would be created.
Simply put: the low point in June will very likely mark a cyclical bottom.
$XAU $BTC $CL
Oil has quietly reached $82.8 today from yesterday.
It’s still affected by Iran’s strikes, hitting production facilities.
So I think the market’s expectations for the situation between the US and Iran are not good right now.
But what’s interesting is that from yesterday to today, as oil has risen, crypto and gold have risen along with it.
It’s almost like things have been de-sensitized.
This also shows that currently crypto’s bullish momentum relies more strongly on the upside from expectations of fewer/less aggressive interest rate hikes than on the longer-term expectation that further oil price increases will continue to affect next month’s inflation rebound.
By the end of the month, expectations for rate hikes have already dropped to the teens.
This month’s fundamentals are basically all supportive and sustained.
That’s also the basis for crypto to keep being positioned long at low levels.
Technically and fundamentally, the alignment for a continued long direction is expected to persist into early August.
But if the US–Iran situation continues to worsen without a window for improvement, then the August fundamentals at high oil prices will become a headwind.
At that time, there could be a 4-hour timeframe decline.
However, if within the next one to two weeks there is a window of relief for the US–Iran situation, that would be an additional positive for crypto.
Gold and crypto would then ride the momentum to climb to a higher level.
In summary: this month’s fundamentals are good.
I remain optimistic about the continued rebound in crypto and gold.
Even if next month’s data turns negative, the best low-buy opportunity after a sell-off would be created.
Simply put: the low point in June will very likely mark a cyclical bottom.
$XAU $BTC $CL
灯塔说
·
--
Central bank reserves are long-term, and long-term they are very favorable.
They have little to do with short-term moves.
But there is limited downside room in the near term.
You should know that the major non-US central banks started stockpiling gold in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war began.
At that time, the US froze and sanctioned Russia, leading some non-US countries to start “selling US Treasuries and buying gold.”
They stockpile every year.
$XAU
They have little to do with short-term moves.
But there is limited downside room in the near term.
You should know that the major non-US central banks started stockpiling gold in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war began.
At that time, the US froze and sanctioned Russia, leading some non-US countries to start “selling US Treasuries and buying gold.”
They stockpile every year.
$XAU
Partly True
Central bank reserves are long-term, and long-term they are very favorable.
They have little to do with short-term moves.
But there is limited downside room in the near term.
You should know that the major non-US central banks started stockpiling gold in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war began.
At that time, the US froze and sanctioned Russia, leading some non-US countries to start “selling US Treasuries and buying gold.”
They stockpile every year.
$XAU
They have little to do with short-term moves.
But there is limited downside room in the near term.
You should know that the major non-US central banks started stockpiling gold in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war began.
At that time, the US froze and sanctioned Russia, leading some non-US countries to start “selling US Treasuries and buying gold.”
They stockpile every year.
$XAU
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