灯塔说
老牌交易员，专注二级交易|投研，严谨计划交易，严格交易计划！合作｜飞机和推特：@Cryptodengta
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"On How AI Gradually Depletes Your Account"
$RAVE
I let the lobster understand the high control market-making logic of $SIREN
Further analyzing the trading techniques of $RAVE and providing suggestions
Damn
Fortunately, I am only in the testing phase
$RAVE
I let the lobster understand the high control market-making logic of $SIREN
Further analyzing the trading techniques of $RAVE and providing suggestions
Damn
Fortunately, I am only in the testing phase
Talking about the macro market:
It is still not a purely bearish environment
Although inflation has some pressure, interest rate cut expectations have cooled
But the market is more sensitive to geopolitical wars
Last night's CPI had little impact, indicating that core inflation has not completely exploded, which is also the reason why the cryptocurrency market can hold steady, or even be relatively strong
As long as the US-Iran war negotiations do not collapse over the weekend
Then after testing support over the weekend
Next week will continue this week's easing trend
If there are problems with the negotiations, the first thing to react is oil prices
The high-level sideways support in the cryptocurrency market will also break down
$BTC
$XAU $CL
It is still not a purely bearish environment
Although inflation has some pressure, interest rate cut expectations have cooled
But the market is more sensitive to geopolitical wars
Last night's CPI had little impact, indicating that core inflation has not completely exploded, which is also the reason why the cryptocurrency market can hold steady, or even be relatively strong
As long as the US-Iran war negotiations do not collapse over the weekend
Then after testing support over the weekend
Next week will continue this week's easing trend
If there are problems with the negotiations, the first thing to react is oil prices
The high-level sideways support in the cryptocurrency market will also break down
$BTC
$XAU $CL
灯塔说
·
--
#美国3月CPI大幅上升
It's the weekend betting time again
Will the negotiations for the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. representative Vance and Iran collapse?
The market here shows negative rates and a long-short ratio below 1
At the same time, it maintains a strong rebound near high resistance levels
Once it breaks through 74-76 to 80K, it will be just a step away from the vacuum zone
This state of long-short tension
It's time for long-short betting again!
$BTC
It's the weekend betting time again
Will the negotiations for the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. representative Vance and Iran collapse?
The market here shows negative rates and a long-short ratio below 1
At the same time, it maintains a strong rebound near high resistance levels
Once it breaks through 74-76 to 80K, it will be just a step away from the vacuum zone
This state of long-short tension
It's time for long-short betting again!
$BTC
#美国3月CPI大幅上升
It's the weekend betting time again
Will the negotiations for the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. representative Vance and Iran collapse?
The market here shows negative rates and a long-short ratio below 1
At the same time, it maintains a strong rebound near high resistance levels
Once it breaks through 74-76 to 80K, it will be just a step away from the vacuum zone
This state of long-short tension
It's time for long-short betting again!
$BTC
It's the weekend betting time again
Will the negotiations for the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. representative Vance and Iran collapse?
The market here shows negative rates and a long-short ratio below 1
At the same time, it maintains a strong rebound near high resistance levels
Once it breaks through 74-76 to 80K, it will be just a step away from the vacuum zone
This state of long-short tension
It's time for long-short betting again!
$BTC
The two biggest variables to watch tonight and over the weekend are:
First, the U.S. March CPI, and second, the U.S.-Iran negotiations/weekend news from the Hormuz Strait.
These two variables will directly determine:
1. Whether gold continues to follow the "safe-haven + weaker dollar" logic
or is pressed down by "high inflation = higher rates for longer";
2. Whether crude oil continues to decline to digest ceasefire expectations
or if the supply disruption risk is raised again.
#XAU $BTC $CL
First, the U.S. March CPI, and second, the U.S.-Iran negotiations/weekend news from the Hormuz Strait.
These two variables will directly determine:
1. Whether gold continues to follow the "safe-haven + weaker dollar" logic
or is pressed down by "high inflation = higher rates for longer";
2. Whether crude oil continues to decline to digest ceasefire expectations
or if the supply disruption risk is raised again.
#XAU $BTC $CL
Betting failed! CTM Trump
Yesterday before sleep, placed a bet
Iran would refuse the ceasefire agreement, triggering Trump's symbolic strike
According to plan, established a position of $BTC 69000 short, gold's 4700 short
Retained the original crude oil position #oil 113 short (logic in the previous tweet)
$CL
Overnight, Iran accepted the temporary ceasefire agreement
Both sides issued statements, communicating the conditions of the ceasefire agreement during the next two weeks
As a result, gold surged while crude oil plummeted by 20% due to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks
This morning, took profits on half of the crude oil position around 93
Gold $XAU still holding, will take a look further
Among the 10 conditions for Iran's ceasefire, some although much softer than before
But Trump's words change daily; if some terms of this agreement cannot be settled, he might still release threats of strikes.
The trend still belongs to the medium-term bearish, with 72K and the 48-49 area of gold also being a strong resistance area; last night's sudden surge still needs observation for confirmation.
Yesterday before sleep, placed a bet
Iran would refuse the ceasefire agreement, triggering Trump's symbolic strike
According to plan, established a position of $BTC 69000 short, gold's 4700 short
Retained the original crude oil position #oil 113 short (logic in the previous tweet)
$CL
Overnight, Iran accepted the temporary ceasefire agreement
Both sides issued statements, communicating the conditions of the ceasefire agreement during the next two weeks
As a result, gold surged while crude oil plummeted by 20% due to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks
This morning, took profits on half of the crude oil position around 93
Gold $XAU still holding, will take a look further
Among the 10 conditions for Iran's ceasefire, some although much softer than before
But Trump's words change daily; if some terms of this agreement cannot be settled, he might still release threats of strikes.
The trend still belongs to the medium-term bearish, with 72K and the 48-49 area of gold also being a strong resistance area; last night's sudden surge still needs observation for confirmation.
灯塔说
·
--
Talk about trading:
The current market fluctuations are more affected by changes in the situation.
The reference weight of technical analysis is relatively low now.
These two days are a turbulent node.
Based on technical analysis, I have the following plan:
$BTC I currently have no positions, but I expect to open a short position around 69000 during today's rebound.
$XAU I am holding onto yesterday's short position near 4700 in gold, planning to take profit around the 45-44 mark.
$CL Currently, I have a short position in crude oil at 113, just holding on lightly, preparing to add more short positions based on the situation after tomorrow's final deadline.
High oil prices can't be sustained for too long; I will continue to act based on the situation when prices rise.
The current market fluctuations are more affected by changes in the situation.
The reference weight of technical analysis is relatively low now.
These two days are a turbulent node.
Based on technical analysis, I have the following plan:
$BTC I currently have no positions, but I expect to open a short position around 69000 during today's rebound.
$XAU I am holding onto yesterday's short position near 4700 in gold, planning to take profit around the 45-44 mark.
$CL Currently, I have a short position in crude oil at 113, just holding on lightly, preparing to add more short positions based on the situation after tomorrow's final deadline.
High oil prices can't be sustained for too long; I will continue to act based on the situation when prices rise.
Talk about trading:
The current market fluctuations are more affected by changes in the situation.
The reference weight of technical analysis is relatively low now.
These two days are a turbulent node.
Based on technical analysis, I have the following plan:
$BTC I currently have no positions, but I expect to open a short position around 69000 during today's rebound.
$XAU I am holding onto yesterday's short position near 4700 in gold, planning to take profit around the 45-44 mark.
$CL Currently, I have a short position in crude oil at 113, just holding on lightly, preparing to add more short positions based on the situation after tomorrow's final deadline.
High oil prices can't be sustained for too long; I will continue to act based on the situation when prices rise.
The current market fluctuations are more affected by changes in the situation.
The reference weight of technical analysis is relatively low now.
These two days are a turbulent node.
Based on technical analysis, I have the following plan:
$BTC I currently have no positions, but I expect to open a short position around 69000 during today's rebound.
$XAU I am holding onto yesterday's short position near 4700 in gold, planning to take profit around the 45-44 mark.
$CL Currently, I have a short position in crude oil at 113, just holding on lightly, preparing to add more short positions based on the situation after tomorrow's final deadline.
High oil prices can't be sustained for too long; I will continue to act based on the situation when prices rise.
Tomorrow morning at 8 AM is the deadline for Iran's ceasefire agreement
But hope is slim
Will Trump fulfill his promise of a full strike?
If he strikes, how will he strike?
Crude oil will rise, gold and BTC will fall
If he doesn't strike
Gold and BTC will continue to rise, crude oil will adjust downward.
The probability of a strike is high, Iran will not accept such a ceasefire agreement, but Trump also dares not to strike fully; at most, he will just make a symbolic strike, otherwise, no one in the Middle East will believe Trump's warnings in the future
Therefore, BTC has not dared to rise in the past two days, crude oil is withstanding the decline, and gold is struggling to rise
Let’s wait for tomorrow's deadline to pass
If I were to trade, I would definitely open with the expectation that Trump will continue to strike, gold and BTC will fall, and crude oil will rise again
But I won't engage in one-sided trading.
$XAU $CL
But hope is slim
Will Trump fulfill his promise of a full strike?
If he strikes, how will he strike?
Crude oil will rise, gold and BTC will fall
If he doesn't strike
Gold and BTC will continue to rise, crude oil will adjust downward.
The probability of a strike is high, Iran will not accept such a ceasefire agreement, but Trump also dares not to strike fully; at most, he will just make a symbolic strike, otherwise, no one in the Middle East will believe Trump's warnings in the future
Therefore, BTC has not dared to rise in the past two days, crude oil is withstanding the decline, and gold is struggling to rise
Let’s wait for tomorrow's deadline to pass
If I were to trade, I would definitely open with the expectation that Trump will continue to strike, gold and BTC will fall, and crude oil will rise again
But I won't engage in one-sided trading.
$XAU $CL
Gold
The judgment of these wave fluctuations is still relatively coordinated
4100 reminds that a rebound is coming
4400 reminds that the rebound expectation is 4800-4900
Today, the pre-judgment is that a pullback is expected around 4400 again below 4750
The market property belongs to a downward rebound repair
It's not that it won't rise, but under the current situation of risk aversion and high oil prices, the high interest rate suppression has eliminated the previous continuity of the risk aversion sentiment's rise
After all, the U.S. non-farm payrolls in March were stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate fell, further delaying the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
Therefore, in the medium term, it is still a bearish pullback under the pressure of 4700-4720, expecting a range of 4500-4400
$XAU
The judgment of these wave fluctuations is still relatively coordinated
4100 reminds that a rebound is coming
4400 reminds that the rebound expectation is 4800-4900
Today, the pre-judgment is that a pullback is expected around 4400 again below 4750
The market property belongs to a downward rebound repair
It's not that it won't rise, but under the current situation of risk aversion and high oil prices, the high interest rate suppression has eliminated the previous continuity of the risk aversion sentiment's rise
After all, the U.S. non-farm payrolls in March were stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate fell, further delaying the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
Therefore, in the medium term, it is still a bearish pullback under the pressure of 4700-4720, expecting a range of 4500-4400
$XAU
Talking about today's trading:
In a tense market, one can first step out and wait for the wind to come.
$BTC
Currently, BTC is trapped between two ends of liquidity, lacking sufficient breakout momentum:
Above, 69K-70K is a clear area for short liquidation, while below, 66K-65K remains a support area for retracement.
Structurally, the daily line is still in a bearish trend, the 4H is just a rebound repair, and the 1H is in a high-level consolidation, not yet at the point of confirming a reversal.
Today's thoughts can only be:
Do not chase long positions near 68K on the medium-term, wait for the price to test 69K-70K to see if there are opportunities for shorting on a high turnover;
If it goes down, first look at 67.2K, then see the support around 66K-65K.
Overall:
The current position is slightly in the middle, with only short-term high-risk opportunities to chase long or bet on a retracement, with upward sweeping demand and downward retracement expectations, but the larger direction is still a bearish structure within the rebound; patiently wait for the wind to come.
In a tense market, one can first step out and wait for the wind to come.
$BTC
Currently, BTC is trapped between two ends of liquidity, lacking sufficient breakout momentum:
Above, 69K-70K is a clear area for short liquidation, while below, 66K-65K remains a support area for retracement.
Structurally, the daily line is still in a bearish trend, the 4H is just a rebound repair, and the 1H is in a high-level consolidation, not yet at the point of confirming a reversal.
Today's thoughts can only be:
Do not chase long positions near 68K on the medium-term, wait for the price to test 69K-70K to see if there are opportunities for shorting on a high turnover;
If it goes down, first look at 67.2K, then see the support around 66K-65K.
Overall:
The current position is slightly in the middle, with only short-term high-risk opportunities to chase long or bet on a retracement, with upward sweeping demand and downward retracement expectations, but the larger direction is still a bearish structure within the rebound; patiently wait for the wind to come.
Let's talk about today's trading:
Recently, we can only play with small fluctuations within limited ranges.
#BTC Yesterday morning, I went long looking at 67800-68400 for profit taking and shorting.
In the evening, I reminded about the overnight hanging orders for a pullback long (see the chart for details).
As it belongs to a daily reversal repair, the trend is still bearish.
This wave of rebound will only reach around 69k (expected in the next couple of days) before turning bearish again.
Gold #XAU After adjusting to 4100, it has started to steadily rebound due to the risk aversion caused by the situation.
This wave of rebound is expected to be in the 4800-4900 range.
In the short term, there is pressure at 4610, breaking through will lead to around 4720.
Maintain low long positions during the pullback, and when reaching the target, turn to bearish.
#原油 Unable to see the technical side, purely looking at the fundamentals.
This morning, the situation escalated, pushing up to the important pressure zone of 106.
Continuing yesterday's high short idea, I went short.
I have always believed that high oil prices are a result that the whole world does not want to see.
Therefore, the whole world will strive to lower oil prices.
As long as there is a chance for easing,
oil prices will quickly return to around 80.
Recently, we can only play with small fluctuations within limited ranges.
#BTC Yesterday morning, I went long looking at 67800-68400 for profit taking and shorting.
In the evening, I reminded about the overnight hanging orders for a pullback long (see the chart for details).
As it belongs to a daily reversal repair, the trend is still bearish.
This wave of rebound will only reach around 69k (expected in the next couple of days) before turning bearish again.
Gold #XAU After adjusting to 4100, it has started to steadily rebound due to the risk aversion caused by the situation.
This wave of rebound is expected to be in the 4800-4900 range.
In the short term, there is pressure at 4610, breaking through will lead to around 4720.
Maintain low long positions during the pullback, and when reaching the target, turn to bearish.
#原油 Unable to see the technical side, purely looking at the fundamentals.
This morning, the situation escalated, pushing up to the important pressure zone of 106.
Continuing yesterday's high short idea, I went short.
I have always believed that high oil prices are a result that the whole world does not want to see.
Therefore, the whole world will strive to lower oil prices.
As long as there is a chance for easing,
oil prices will quickly return to around 80.
灯塔说
·
--
Synchronous trading:
The weekend is actually a warm-up
The suggestion I gave to the group friends this morning is
Bitcoin and Ethereum Gold
Continue to short crude oil above 100
Currently, it seems to be profitable
Observing the US market situation
Pay attention to the resistance levels of Bitcoin at 67800-68400
For gold, watch the resistance at 4550; if it breaks through, it might shoot up to 4650
Crude oil is for shorting on the left side, light position
Borrowing a friend's words: The Bitcoin trend is all fake, gold is easier to trade, what do you think?
#BTC #XAU $BTC $XAU
The weekend is actually a warm-up
The suggestion I gave to the group friends this morning is
Bitcoin and Ethereum Gold
Continue to short crude oil above 100
Currently, it seems to be profitable
Observing the US market situation
Pay attention to the resistance levels of Bitcoin at 67800-68400
For gold, watch the resistance at 4550; if it breaks through, it might shoot up to 4650
Crude oil is for shorting on the left side, light position
Borrowing a friend's words: The Bitcoin trend is all fake, gold is easier to trade, what do you think?
#BTC #XAU $BTC $XAU
#特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 Now trading cryptocurrencies and gold and oil, looking at K-lines is not as good as looking at the news
Timely news updates are comparable to wealth codes
Currently, I have only found one Twitter user whose updates are faster than media news
So, this morning I made two short trades in oil and one long trade in futures
I am already too late to chase the gold long position
#BTC #XAU
Timely news updates are comparable to wealth codes
Currently, I have only found one Twitter user whose updates are faster than media news
So, this morning I made two short trades in oil and one long trade in futures
I am already too late to chase the gold long position
#BTC #XAU
Synchronous trading:
The weekend is actually a warm-up
The suggestion I gave to the group friends this morning is
Bitcoin and Ethereum Gold
Continue to short crude oil above 100
Currently, it seems to be profitable
Observing the US market situation
Pay attention to the resistance levels of Bitcoin at 67800-68400
For gold, watch the resistance at 4550; if it breaks through, it might shoot up to 4650
Crude oil is for shorting on the left side, light position
Borrowing a friend's words: The Bitcoin trend is all fake, gold is easier to trade, what do you think?
#BTC #XAU $BTC $XAU
The weekend is actually a warm-up
The suggestion I gave to the group friends this morning is
Bitcoin and Ethereum Gold
Continue to short crude oil above 100
Currently, it seems to be profitable
Observing the US market situation
Pay attention to the resistance levels of Bitcoin at 67800-68400
For gold, watch the resistance at 4550; if it breaks through, it might shoot up to 4650
Crude oil is for shorting on the left side, light position
Borrowing a friend's words: The Bitcoin trend is all fake, gold is easier to trade, what do you think?
#BTC #XAU $BTC $XAU
灯塔说
·
--
The U.S. Army units have begun to enter Iran
Expected to arrive on the 27th
Bitcoin struggled to break through around 72k yesterday, shorted as planned
Gold broke through 4600, reminded not to chase the rise
Currently retraced to around 4430, continue to observe
Crude oil rebounded after falling to 86, today another tanker was destroyed in the Black Sea
As ground warfare escalates, crude oil prices are expected to continue rising
Today, Bitcoin still focuses on the range of 69K-71K
In the absence of negative news, continue to look for a rebound to gain more sufficient downward liquidity which may continue to decline.
#BTC #黄金 #原油
Expected to arrive on the 27th
Bitcoin struggled to break through around 72k yesterday, shorted as planned
Gold broke through 4600, reminded not to chase the rise
Currently retraced to around 4430, continue to observe
Crude oil rebounded after falling to 86, today another tanker was destroyed in the Black Sea
As ground warfare escalates, crude oil prices are expected to continue rising
Today, Bitcoin still focuses on the range of 69K-71K
In the absence of negative news, continue to look for a rebound to gain more sufficient downward liquidity which may continue to decline.
#BTC #黄金 #原油
The U.S. Army units have begun to enter Iran
Expected to arrive on the 27th
Bitcoin struggled to break through around 72k yesterday, shorted as planned
Gold broke through 4600, reminded not to chase the rise
Currently retraced to around 4430, continue to observe
Crude oil rebounded after falling to 86, today another tanker was destroyed in the Black Sea
As ground warfare escalates, crude oil prices are expected to continue rising
Today, Bitcoin still focuses on the range of 69K-71K
In the absence of negative news, continue to look for a rebound to gain more sufficient downward liquidity which may continue to decline.
#BTC #黄金 #原油
Expected to arrive on the 27th
Bitcoin struggled to break through around 72k yesterday, shorted as planned
Gold broke through 4600, reminded not to chase the rise
Currently retraced to around 4430, continue to observe
Crude oil rebounded after falling to 86, today another tanker was destroyed in the Black Sea
As ground warfare escalates, crude oil prices are expected to continue rising
Today, Bitcoin still focuses on the range of 69K-71K
In the absence of negative news, continue to look for a rebound to gain more sufficient downward liquidity which may continue to decline.
#BTC #黄金 #原油
This morning's data push received multiple messages about small whales buying ETH!
Among them, "This mysterious whale associated with Eric Vorhees spent 4.35 million USD $USDT today, purchasing 2,103 $ETH at a price of $2,069 each. Over the past two weeks, this big player has spent 264.37 million USD $USDT, buying 122,355 $ETH at an average price of $2,161 each."
Every time there is such news, the market tends to first reverse and trap before it rises again.
#ETH
Among them, "This mysterious whale associated with Eric Vorhees spent 4.35 million USD $USDT today, purchasing 2,103 $ETH at a price of $2,069 each. Over the past two weeks, this big player has spent 264.37 million USD $USDT, buying 122,355 $ETH at an average price of $2,161 each."
Every time there is such news, the market tends to first reverse and trap before it rises again.
#ETH
Review of Intraday Trading:
In the evening, when testing 68100 for the second time, the hourly chart formed a 2B
Took profit and closed the short position at 74500
And went long with a small stop loss
Watching tomorrow's market!
This wave of logic refers to the previous post, mainly because the liquidity liquidation from 76K to 68K has been completed
Here we are still moving in a range-bound market
Waiting for two opportunities for short positions:
1. After breaking down the 4-hour bearish flag at 66K, initiate a new round of downward wave and short
2. Short again after the pullback from 68K to 72-73K
On Friday, go long on crude oil and look again for a target of 100+
The situation remains bullish for crude oil
But high oil prices have drawbacks for the whole world
Chasing long positions above 100 or having faith in long positions carries risks far greater than rewards
The above is my personal opinion!
#CrudeOil #BTC
In the evening, when testing 68100 for the second time, the hourly chart formed a 2B
Took profit and closed the short position at 74500
And went long with a small stop loss
Watching tomorrow's market!
This wave of logic refers to the previous post, mainly because the liquidity liquidation from 76K to 68K has been completed
Here we are still moving in a range-bound market
Waiting for two opportunities for short positions:
1. After breaking down the 4-hour bearish flag at 66K, initiate a new round of downward wave and short
2. Short again after the pullback from 68K to 72-73K
On Friday, go long on crude oil and look again for a target of 100+
The situation remains bullish for crude oil
But high oil prices have drawbacks for the whole world
Chasing long positions above 100 or having faith in long positions carries risks far greater than rewards
The above is my personal opinion!
#CrudeOil #BTC
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