灯塔说

Important Announcement:
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.

Central bank reserves are long-term, and long-term they are very favorable.
They have little to do with short-term moves.
But there is limited downside room in the near term.

You should know that the major non-US central banks started stockpiling gold in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war began.
At that time, the US froze and sanctioned Russia, leading some non-US countries to start “selling US Treasuries and buying gold.”
They stockpile every year.
$XAU

Why is the U.S. stock market dropping so much? When will it be time to buy the dip?
It dropped yesterday and has kept falling until today.
It’s a one-way drop like a cliff.

One side says profit-taking is unloading.
The other side says AI storage demand is still very high and it will keep rising in the future.

What do you think?
$NVDA.US $AAPL.US $GOOGL.US

U.S. stock tech sector selloff creates a synchronized move
Last night:
Nasdaq Composite fell by about 1.47%;
Nasdaq 100 fell by about 1.62%;
Semiconductor sector fell by about 4.3%;
S&P 500 fell by about 0.51%.
Technology and semiconductors were the core of last night’s risk-asset liquidation. During the U.S. trading session, BTC and ETH failed to strengthen independently—instead, they retreated in line with high-beta technology assets.
$MU $SKHY $SNDK

#美股就是最大的山寨
Resist the high volatility upfront
Get on at night and get trapped instantly
Today I bought A after yesterday’s entire rebound and still made a new low

After the AI hype cools off and a broad selloff starts, buying the Seven Sisters is the safest
The $MSFT I recommended earlier always rises when AI stocks dump and have a broad decline
Today is mostly red with just a little green

Give me my money back, I’m done playing

Sync my trading plan for today:
Basically still follows yesterday’s view.
$BTC : For BTC, you can go long on short dips or short from highs—wait. The cleanup/stop-run highs to short are in the 65600–66300 range.
For the downside, wait for a short-term long in 63550–63900; this is the 1-hour support demand zone.
In this leg of the rise from 61800 to 65600, the OTE area is roughly 62600–63250.
Above that is the reasonable buy-in zone.
For $ETH : the short-long entry is around 1870–1890, and it’s stronger than BTC. For shorts, only consider entries around 2045, which is also this rebound’s high point.
1960–1980 is a place to scalp short.
$XAU (gold): go long and wait around 4005–3995. If it breaks below here, then observe whether it can hold the down-move and stabilize in the 3980–3960 range.
There’s no favorable risk-reward yet for shorting. If a short-term rebound cannot break above and hold around 4060, it may continue to adjust downward.
【Risk reminder: this is only my personal view for record and does not constitute any investment advice】

Wosh is very tough (hawk)

The first thing I do every day at work is to summarize the latest fundamentals from the past day.
With the current macro environment directly driving asset volatility, fundamentals are the top priority to understand, and then—only after that—look at technical analysis.
This applies to crude oil, gold, BTC, and the US stock market (ranked by their impact priority).

To sum up: At present, the impact from fundamentals is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. July is still in the favorable stage of low rate-hike expectations. But after mid-August, rate-hike expectations will reignite, and the September rate-hike expectations will be even higher—making it bearish.

Therefore, in July the market environment is characterized by a range-bound rebound trend (gold $XAU 、$BTC ), not a strong one-direction trend. Avoid chasing longs on emotion, and don’t be overly aggressive in chasing shorts either. Buying on pullbacks is the best strategy. The July 30 rate decision meeting basically maintained interest rates unchanged, which is bullish.

The only current bearish factor is the escalation of the US-Iran situation, which has driven crude oil prices higher. Although the 70-minute bombardment yesterday didn’t cause much volatility in gold or crude oil—and even affected them less directly—it hasn’t removed the risk from this situation. Instead, if high oil prices keep persisting without easing, it will push up inflation expectations again, offsetting the recent positive effects from soft CPI and PPI.

Over the past two days, Wosh also conveyed important bearish signals in his testimony before two houses of Congress. Wosh is “very tough (hawk).” In both appearances, his stance was consistent: zero tolerance for persistently high inflation, but the inflation task hasn’t been completed yet. CPI and other indicators are not the only references. Also, the risk at the tail end of this year’s rate hikes is still there, as the demand for Trump to cut rates is not being met.

In summary, fundamentals are somewhat contradictory right now, but as time passes, events will become clearer. As long as the US-Iran conflict doesn’t continue to escalate, oil prices don’t break further upward, and inflation naturally cools, then everything will be fine. On the other hand, if stagflation restarts, it will be bad for gold, crypto, and the US stock market.

If you think the summary is good, add a follow and watch for my future market interpretation.
【Risk warning: This is only a record of personal viewpoints and does not constitute any investment advice】

#2026足球风潮 #世界杯2026
I don’t know how to describe Argentina’s matches.
From the 2022 final to this year’s quarterfinals, and then the semifinals—
Messi is just lucky.
The teammates around him are so dependable.
I can’t even expect France 🇫🇷 to have a comeback-from-the-brink kind of scene like this.
That’s probably the魅魅 of football.
All it takes is one match for you to turn into a fan.
In the final, I’m definitely supporting Spain!! Argentina’s luck ran out 😂😂
#世界杯决赛

Update today on my subjective views regarding the subsequent行情 for each product:
$BTC 4 The rising structure over the past 24 hours looks good, but in the short term I do not recommend chasing it around 65.5K. The 65.6K–66.3K zone is a very important resistance. I expect a pullback at about a 4-hour timeframe. The exact pullback range needs to wait for confirmation of a peak. (Kong if you got stopped in this range)
$ETH is synchronized with Bitcoin, but in the short term, for this rebound, first look around 2030. (Give up on trading)
Gold: $XAU Before it breaks through and holds above 4110, I expect it may revisit around 4000 again. However, above 3950, I would still consider going long. (Kong if you got stopped around here for DUO)
The above are stage-by-stage opinions based on technical analysis and fundamentals.
【This is only personal trading opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice】

Today afternoon saw a short-selling signal
Open a short $SKHY
After the second rebound later in the evening, it will reach the target position
Why open a short?
Because of a technical signal
Why give the target?
Maybe it's about storing/reflecting the recent tendency to like volatility
【The above is only my personal viewpoint for record】

Starting June 30
Wash’s reminder of a decline in inflation
Starting with the non-farm payroll data coming in cold, benefiting non-US assets
Along this journey, combined with technical structure, we issued two rounds of Bitcoin and gold long-position reminders
This time, with the CPI data in sync with forecasts, the favorable momentum was realized and the market surged upward
This is the most comfortable and smoothest phase since I started trading
Although the profits in the middle didn’t reach expectations
it has also been extremely helpful for building confidence
The only regret is that in this stock-market run, US equities only captured the first half of the move; in the second half, because volatility was too high and the logic was unclear, we chose to wait and observe multiple times.
Now the mindset is excellent
Because there is a clear plan for the upcoming market
Follow the plan and execute step by step, converting it into profits
$BTC $XAU

US June CPI month-on-month fell by 0.4%, the largest single-month drop since 2020; year-on-year dropped from 4.2% to 3.5%. Core CPI was flat month-on-month and fell year-on-year to 2.6%. However, this decline in inflation is largely driven by a month-on-month 5.7% drop in energy prices and does not necessarily mean underlying inflation pressures have disappeared.
After the data was released, US Treasury yields and the US dollar declined; market pricing for a July rate hike fell noticeably, providing a liquidity tailwind for BTC, ETH, and US stock risk assets.
But there is an obvious contradiction here:
Last night’s CPI reflected the decline in June energy prices.
What the market is facing now is that July oil prices are rising again.
The US-Iran conflict and运输 risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to push up oil prices, with Brent crude already back up to around $86. If energy prices keep rising, the market may again trade the “inflation re-accelerates—interest rates stay higher” logic.
The stance of Federal Reserve Chair Warsh has also not turned meaningfully more dovish due to a single month’s CPI. He emphasized that the Fed cannot tolerate persistently high inflation; the current target interest-rate range remains at 3.50%–3.75%. At the same time, he believes the economy is still expanding at a steady pace and the employment market remains broadly stable.
Key events tonight:
20:30: US June PPI
22:00: Warsh attends a Senate hearing
Next day 02:00: Federal Reserve Beige Book
ETF fund flows have not fully confirmed this round of上涨
The BTC spot ETF saw net outflows of about $424.7 million on July 13; as of the currently disclosed July 14 data, it only temporarily recorded about $21.0 million in net inflows, and the data is still incomplete. The ETH ETF saw net outflows of about $15.4 million on July 13, and July 14 has yet to show any clear net inflows.
$BTC $ETH $XAU

Core CPI release value 0%
US Treasury yields plunge instantly
A huge positive!

After NFP, holding gold long positions, and you didn't disappoint everyone
Short-term target: 4110–4140
Long-term target: 4300–4500
$XAU

#CPI数据
Tonight’s CPI scenarios and response strategies:
1. Scenario A: CPI = 0.2%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield clearly falls (breaking below key support)
Explanation: A perfect bullish script—concerns about oil are temporarily disproven.
Action: Go long gold and BTC in line with the trend at the support levels, capturing the right-side rebound.
2. Scenario B: CPI = 0.2%, but the 10-year US Treasury yield refuses to fall (and even rebounds)
Explanation: A dangerous signal! The bond market is warning about forward inflation driven by oil and geopolitics. The bullish impact of CPI is ineffective.
Action: Keep holding gold; for BTC, if it “jumps” upward on the CPI data and spikes through—this is an excellent bull-trap fake breakout. Be prepared to close at higher levels or even reverse to short.
3. Scenario C: CPI = 0.3% (stronger-than-expected and tough)
Explanation: Market consensus is shattered, and panic/trampling occurs.
Action: Abandon the bottom-fishing fantasies of supported levels for all risky assets (BTC, US stocks). Support is bound to break.
In summary: Gold is currently the best macro defensive asset—able to attack when appropriate and defend as needed. Hold your gold long positions and wait for the market to turn.
$BTC $XAU $CL

Gold has reached the position I’ve been trying to wait for the past few days.
Not because of the U.S.-Iran escalation.
I just don’t feel like it.
This is the confirmation point for a single-leg retracement after a structural reversal appears on the 4-hour timeframe.

My best opportunity came after this.

Last night, I reminded the brothers on the square to enter one after another following me.
Now I’m reminding others to come in and continue following me.
$XAU

Tonight 20:30, the U.S. June CPI will be released. The market’s median expectation for core CPI is 0.2% month-over-month. If core CPI comes in at 0.3% or higher, the market will further price in the risk of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Later at 22:00, Fed Chair Warsh will testify before Congress. Then at 00:30 the following day, Waller will deliver remarks on the economic outlook.
The current macro backdrop is clearly unfavorable for risk assets:
- The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has reignited;
- Brent crude briefly rose above $85;
- The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to around 4.63% ;
- The U.S. dollar index is hovering near a near-term high;
- The probability the market assigns to a 25 bp hike by late July has risen to about 43%.
This means today’s CPI is not just ordinary data—it is being released against a backdrop of oil-price shocks plus a warming rate-hike outlook.
In addition, on July 13, net outflows from U.S. spot BTC ETFs were about $239.2 million, and net outflows from ETH ETFs were about $15.4 million. Institutional funds have not yet formed a strong backstop.$CL $XAU

Brothers, you can come in after me

The best support position for 3980-3960 is coming
$XAU

Trump has started blocking again

This power is even stronger than Iran unilaterally closing the port

It looks like Iran’s ace card isn’t working very well anymore!

This is a negative factor card, and it looks like they’ve almost run out

For the bulls, next they’ll be watching tomorrow night’s CPI data and Wash’s first appearance in Congress
$BTC

This week is anything but calm!
Over the weekend, the conflict between Iran and the U.S. escalated again; the Strait of Hormuz was shut; oil prices and the U.S. dollar both strengthened. The market has once again shifted its focus to energy inflation and the risk of further Federal Reserve rate hikes—an important backdrop for today’s pressure on risk assets.

At 20:30 tomorrow Beijing time / Singapore time, the U.S. CPI will be released, and the PPI will be published on Wednesday at 20:30;
This week also includes testimony by Fed Chair Waller before Congress.
Over the next two days, it’s easy to see a choppy market with back-and-forth swings.
$XAU $BTC