灯塔说

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$BTC

Bitcoin is currently ranging at high levels, and neither bulls nor bears can break out of a large move.
We need next week’s CPI data to trigger a shift.
This kind of price action looks more like: in a consolidation, it first pulls liquidity upward (64.8K–65.2K), then retraces, before potentially pushing higher toward 67K–72K.
【Just my personal speculation and does not constitute any investment advice】

When Michael Saylor says things like this, it feels like the classic “denying while confessing” (covering up what everyone can see)
Buying is a habit, and the market doesn’t really react to any positive news
Selling is unexpected, and the market will panic
$BTC

Just saw two pieces of news:
As shown in the picture: economists and Wall Street say the probability of a recession has dropped to 25%. At the same time, inflation expectations have been revised upward to 3.4%. The following view is based on the assumption that the subsequent data will support these predictions.

When you connect these two pieces of data, it essentially confirms the “No Landing” scenario—the one the market least wants to face. Wall Street was previously rushing ahead with the trade of “recession forces the Fed to loosen,” but that fantasy has been completely shattered.

The real impact on the market is all about an extreme split in pricing power and a reset of liquidity expectations.

On the macro level, as long as the fundamentals have not collapsed—meaning the economy hasn’t broken—corporate earnings (EPS) have a floor. But if inflation doesn’t come down, the Fed then has the strongest possible reason to keep dragging out the high interest-rate environment (“higher for longer”). As long as the risk-free yield stays elevated, the broad-market rally that lifts valuations (PE) through liquidity overflow is completely over.

Looking specifically at U.S. stock holdings, the next market action will be a meat grinder. Under the combination of high rates and inflation, money will be extremely realistic—rushing to conglomerate around giants that have absolute pricing power. Only these top companies can pass inflation costs on to downstream businesses, and they also have ample cash flow to earn interest. Meanwhile, mid- to small-cap stocks that rely on cheap debt to stay afloat (Russell 2000) and unprofitable growth stocks will be slowly worn down by the high costs of debt rollovers (Rollover). The index may hold steady, but the individual stocks underneath will be brutally torn apart.

As for gold, under this data, the logic is actually even more solid. In theory, delayed rate cuts are a negative for non-interest-bearing gold—but with the inflation center of gravity materially shifting upward (from 3.2% to 3.4%), gold is no longer pricing short-term rate fluctuations. Instead, it reflects a long-term anti-inflation benchmark and a hedge against credit risk. This is also the core reason why, even though Treasury yields are so high, gold still can’t be pushed down deeply.

In short, let go of the fixation on the Fed quickly cutting rates and flooding the market with liquidity. The trading environment ahead will not offer broad-based β. It will only deliver ruthless α—whoever has real cash flow and a moat can withstand this high-rate period. The rest will be slowly drained by liquidity over time.
$XAU

Let’s talk about the trade:
The market index has seen a temporary bottom, but it’s not a mindless buy-in.
After I reminded you to hold some long positions around 4030 on July 8, there hasn’t been any further update on the market afterward.
But I review and re-check the situation every day.
For short-term scalps, there are opportunities every day. However, up to now, the market is only suitable for two choices: holding long positions at low levels or staying in cash. It’s not suitable to jump on again and chase longs at higher levels mid-run.
As for the detailed analysis of the fundamentals and technicals, I won’t go into that right now. First, please give me a follow or subscribe. I’ll update it when I do the market recap later.
Today, I’ll only talk about the general direction:
$BTC : 57K is expected to be the bottom of a phase of rebound, but it lacks a second confirmation.
There will be opportunities to buy in at lower levels later.
$XAU : As for gold, it has also initially shown a phase bottom, but there’s no confirmation yet. Giving a level around 4000 would be a very good second low point.
$CL : Regarding crude oil, refer to the previous message above.

Regarding the further developments of the U.S.-Iran conflict, what is my trading plan?
We won’t really end up fighting, and the situation won’t escalate—but the talk and small skirmishes will continue, and oil prices will keep trading within a range!

For now, in the short term, pay attention to developments over the weekend. Trump has again verbally issued an “ultimatum,” promising that by Saturday the Strait of Hormuz will be kept open, otherwise military action will be taken—and he has threatened that 1,000 missiles will be kept on standby.
But it also likely won’t escalate to something very serious. If there is any easing under third-party mediation, prices could fall below the 70 mark. However, a drop in the short term is a good opportunity for a game—because the lower things go at this stage, the larger the profit space for an upside escalation risk.
One side needs it for the midterm elections; the other is newly in power and in a phase of asserting authority—so neither side is willing to back down.

In summary, my current trading plan for crude oil is not to chase shorting or short-selling. On the contrary, I will look for suitable long opportunities. Around 69.5 in the short term is a good level to watch.
$CL

I still don’t know how to place this trade.
Buy some gold long positions and wait for the night meeting minutes.
If it goes up, get out.
This week’s K-line is drawn for Trump.
Next week is drawn for me!
$XAU ​​​

The most frequently asked question lately is: Is $BTC ’s current low at 57K truly the bottom?
Another friend added that October is the low point of each cycle, so the bottom may occur in October.
As for my view—whether a certain price is the bottom, I don’t know, and I also think it’s not that important. What matters is when the trend forms.
But which stage or which cycle is the bottom is something you may be able to know in advance. Looking at macro from a different perspective can reveal signals.
For example:
The bottom in 2022–2023 was only seen after continuous rate hikes reached the end, and only then did a bottom-and-rebound start.
In 2024–2025, the bottom from which the market began to rise again started only after the ETF and Trump’s inauguration.
For the adjustment in 2026—when it becomes the bottom—you need to see whether the negative macro factors have fully played out, and whether there is a major macro tailwind.
If not, then what price level is the bottom doesn’t really matter, because the market will keep ranging.

Based on Deribit’s options indicators, there are several pieces of information in this chart you can参考:
1) The put/call open interest ratio (bullish vs. bearish options positioning) is at 23.5万:13万.
2) There is still a large position in 40K put options. The 55–60.5K options are more densely clustered, suggesting that market expectations for bears have not been fully eliminated—although it may not be exactly bearish all the way at this level, even hedging spot indicates uncertainty about the market.
3) In the short term, expectations for 70K calls suggest there is still a lot of capital that is relatively optimistic about a rebound in the near term.
4) The far-dated 100K call options are likely early accumulations—consensus levels for the expected high point of subsequent rebounds.
From the options data, it looks like capital is still extremely cautious. This kind of caution indirectly signals that the market uncertainty is still high—at least it’s still in a defensive mode. Once the macro uncertainties are basically cleared, the direction will become much clearer and more definite.

Speaking of Deribit, it reminded me of an ad push on X from the other day: a trading game offered overseas small islands. One island is only $30,000, and lots of little island movie stories popped into my head—but the first question I had was: “How do I get onto that island?” Hahaha.
This marketing idea works—it triggers people’s instinctive curiosity.
I thought, I’ll go try trading. Not many people are participating now, so competition is low. If I end up getting an island, then I’ll also have the “someone with overseas fixed assets” persona.
Just imagining it makes me laugh, hahaha.
If you want to know more, you can click in and check it out yourself.
【Sharing only personal trading records; not investment advice of any kind】

The Trump-Iran candlestick charts are drawing again.
Trump said: The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has ended. This is only a verbal threat for now, but it still made the market crash.
The U.S. Dollar Index has broken above 101—now the dollar is rising, and everything else is falling!
The US stock market is also now negatively correlated with the dollar.
There’s also a Federal Reserve interest-rate meeting at 2:00 AM tonight. It’s likely to be dovish.
But I guess it will just trigger a rebound.
Trading is really hard to play at this stage. Watch more, act less—wait for the right opportunity to make your move.
$XAU $BTC $CL

The candlesticks for Trump and Iran are being drawn again
$BTC $CL

The Han stock market rose early this morning,
then it fell again and triggered a trading halt.
Storage would probably surge in a big rebound too—I thought the downtrend had finally ended and the rebound was starting.
But now everything has fallen back again.
I didn’t dare to move; the volatility is too high.
With a small position there was no feeling, but if I opened big my heart can’t take it.

But this roller-coaster-like trend 🎢 isn’t a good sign.
$MUB $SKHYNIX

Didn’t you notice
Half a month ago, the U.S. stock market that everyone celebrated together
and today, in fact, hasn’t seen that much change in fundamentals
Besides Micron’s earnings report that came with a highlight that held things up at the end
the non-farm data is actually still good for the fundamentals
So why did this drop so violently?
Meta sold off excess computing capacity—not because AI demand has decreased
The market has already recognized this
So the decline must be panic selling, emotion-driven selling
That kind of hot money—once it focuses on these targets
it leaves quickly and comes quickly too
Wait for a round of good fundamental news
Find an oversold opportunity
Go for it
Then just wait to count the cash
$MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK.US

US stocks continue to open and then drift lower. In the memory sector, Micron’s pullback from its peak is already down more than 20%, and Hynix is down more than 30%. Other memory stocks are pulling back in sync. What’s still hard to judge is where the bottom of the pullback will be, but one thing is clear: the magnitude of the pullback is already significant.

At this stage, the pullback is driven more by emotion and panic selling, not by changes in fundamentals.

The fundamentals for HBM remain unchanged: high demand and low supply. Under these conditions, to stop the decline and see a rebound, we need a positive catalyst.

Over the next few days, watch three fundamental developments:
1. The CPI data on Wednesday, July 8, and the upcoming policy meeting—whether it continues the dovish “NFP-style” signal and helps the market rebound.
2. TSMC’s revenue results for June, which will be released in the next few days. If the revenue is strong and the market believes AI demand growth will accelerate, that would be a positive signal.
3. Hynix’s ADR listing on July 10. If the current sell-off is an anticipatory reaction—selling the expectation and buying the fact—then once the listing happens, the negative factor may be “priced in,” which could become a more certain bullish signal.

If the FOMC turns more hawkish than expected, and at the same time TSMC’s revenue comes in below expectations—then the market’s view of AI demand could weaken, and there may still be room for further downside.

Trading US stocks is more about fundamentals than technicals.
$SKHYNIX $MU

Every morning, the Korean stock market is the bellwether.
After the market opened down
everything went down together even before the U.S. market opened.
Before that, the AI chip-related names were all falling.
As for MU (Micron), it only dares to go short at high levels—now it doesn’t dare to short here.
Even around 1010 from last night, no one dared to short.
This kind of fear follows the hottest, leading momentum names.
But buying from 1150 down to 950 means the expected target has been met.
$MU

This sudden V reversal is just an interlude
But it also completes the pullback confirmation early
Today, stay above 62.4k—go long again, looking bullish toward 65.6K

Gold hasn’t bottomed out yet. It’s expected to stop falling and start a new round of upside within the 4118–4080 range
$BTC

You have a friend named Mr. Wang. He spends money lavishly—every year he spends more than he earns. If a normal person did this, the banks wouldn’t lend to him anymore, or they’d charge him very high interest.
But Mr. Wang is different. His father runs a money-printing factory.
Every time Mr. Wang issues bonds to borrow money and nobody on the market buys, his father steps in and pays for them. Since he has a father with an unlimited backstop, the interest rate on Mr. Wang’s borrowing stays low—because creditors know that “his dad will take over.”
So Mr. Wang has no worries at all. He borrows more and more, the hole keeps getting bigger, and the deficit reaching 5.8% of income doesn’t bother him. After all, his dad is there—he won’t have trouble getting loans.
Now Warsh’s point is: it’s time for his dad to stop.
If his father stops buying, Mr. Wang has to borrow in the market at prices set by his actual creditworthiness. The market looks and says: wow—your hole every year is that big? The interest rate doubles.
Mr. Wang is forced to face the real consequences: either spend less, or earn more.
#美联储何时降息？

Wow, MicroStrategy sold more than 3,000 bitcoins over the past week.
Probably they were dumping during the ups-and-downs—selling pressure as price was trying to rise hard, especially during the Asian session.
But thankfully, it was only the first time and it caused panic.
Do it a few more times and the market will be immune.
(Last week there was clear notice they would sell coins to cover dividends.)
Just take it in stride!
Good thing that over the weekend and early Monday, they warned about resistance around 64,000.
This pullback also successfully hit take-profit.
$BTC

This month, the new Fed chair has been making frequent appearances and attending events
More and clearer information signals will emerge regarding macroeconomic developments
This will be very helpful for trading.
#CLARITY法案错过7月4日签署目标

Monday open to a high before pulling back
Big coin reaches key resistance
Gold hits 4200
Don’t chase longs; don’t open long positions for now.
$BTC $XAU