The Federal Reserve’s July meeting will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%, but three committee members called for a 25BP rate hike; the official statement still emphasizes that inflation remains above target.
As of August 3, the expectation for a rate hike on September 17 is 73.6%
Looking at today’s latest expectation, it is 64.7%
This indicates that the market’s expectation for a rate hike in September is getting higher (with such elevated expectations, it’s difficult for the near-term market to be bullish).
The data for August is crucial: for the August 7 jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), the forecast is over 80,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%
The actual released data is critical.
The pressure is on Worsh! If all the data strongly points toward a rate hike, can Worsh hold up under the pressure and keep rates unchanged?
$XAU $CL
As of August 3, the expectation for a rate hike on September 17 is 73.6%
Looking at today’s latest expectation, it is 64.7%
This indicates that the market’s expectation for a rate hike in September is getting higher (with such elevated expectations, it’s difficult for the near-term market to be bullish).
The data for August is crucial: for the August 7 jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), the forecast is over 80,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%
The actual released data is critical.
The pressure is on Worsh! If all the data strongly points toward a rate hike, can Worsh hold up under the pressure and keep rates unchanged?
$XAU $CL