The bull-bear watershed: will it continue to rise or bottom out? Is the turning point not far away?

Market

Bitcoin: After the previous bottoming out and shock bottoming out, the daily line has formed a rebound upward trend, but the overall strength is still weak, mainly reflected in the continuity of the market is still not strong, and it is unable to effectively form a continuous trend when breaking the high. The daily line pressure point last week was 28600.

This position is also the resistance level in the previous rising process. If the daily line can effectively break through and stabilize this position, the price of the currency is expected to hit the 30,000 mark next. The 30,000 mark is the watershed for the continuation of the entire trend. In the short term, pay attention to the support of 27,800. In terms of operation, you can rely on this position to continue to look for a rebound

Ethereum: Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum's overall trend this year is in a weak state, especially when Bitcoin actively rises, Ethereum's follow-up is not strong. After the daily line fell from last week's high, although it did not break the low, the daily line did not show a clear upward trend, but was in a state of shock. At present, the resistance pressure is mainly concentrated at the 1780 line, which is the last high point.

The support below is 1600; in the short term, we need to pay attention to the resistance of 1660, and the short-term trend is mainly low and long.

The price of Bitcoin has been pushed up all the time, and now the copycats dare not move. It all depends on whether Bitcoin can reach above 30,000. If it exceeds 30,000, the copycats will take off collectively!

All we can do now is wait and hold the spot goods. The market trend cannot end like this!

The daily trend of Bitcoin is a shock trend. After the shock ends, the probability of rising is greater than the probability of falling. The basis is as follows:

1. After a wave of sufficient rise, the price came to the position of 28611 US dollars, and closed with a negative line with a long upper shadow line. The pressure formed by the dense trading area above triggered a callback to form a low point to draw a shock range.

2. The high and low points of the K-line in the entire oscillation range move up

3. When the market rises, the long positions increase in volume, while when the market falls back, the short positions decrease in volume.

4. Operate above 50% of the oscillation range

5. The price is currently between the upper and middle Bollinger bands

At this time, some people say that after the war between Palestine and Israel, shouldn’t the market fall?

First, let’s talk about the risk aversion of gold, oil, and the US dollar index.

Over the weekend, geopolitical wars in the Middle East escalated and gold opened sharply higher, rising from $1,810 to $1,855. During the most active period, gold's one-minute trading volume was $387 million.

Then let’s talk about the international oil price. WIT crude oil futures rose by 5%. The risk aversion sentiment in the current market is heating up.

The US dollar index rose rapidly after the war. The instability in the Middle East may accelerate the rise of the US dollar index, which is now around 106.

It can be clearly felt that the recent war will lead to an increase in risk aversion, and people will buy short-term safe-haven funds such as the US dollar, short-term bonds, and gold.

What will happen to BTC market in the war situation?

This conflict does not have as big an impact as the Russo-Ukrainian War. The most important impact is still on oil production. Judging from the history of the Russo-Ukrainian War, BTC may have a small rebound, and it should follow the trend of gold.

Brothers, you can look at the K-line. The start time of the Russia-Ukraine war is February 15, 2022. The lowest point of BTC is 37,000. One month after the war started, it rose to 47,000. According to the saying of carving a boat to find a sword, this round of rebound will have an increase of about 30%.

Considering that this round of war may not have as big an impact as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the rebound may not be 30%, I think the possibility of a rebound is still very high.

After all, digital gold is also gold, and we also have some hedging functions.

at last

I have repeatedly said that liquidity is scarce now, and long-term holders are unwilling to easily absorb shares, nor will they dump their shares. Therefore, a little bit of funds can cause a dramatic market shock.

Nearly two weeks ago, I said in my market analysis that if the market does not fall below 25,000 US dollars in two weeks, then we will be bullish. Now, not only has it not fallen below, but it has also rebounded to around 28,000 US dollars.

I'm afraid we need to change our perspective as a whole. 2023 will be the year of the Monkey, and it will be more obvious in the next three months because there will be fewer circulating stocks. In this case, we can eat both long and short positions and build positions for the bull market.

Today's sharing ends here. Thank you very much for taking the time to read this article in your busy schedule. I hope the article is helpful to you. You can follow me and leave me comments to communicate with me.