One Quarter of BTC Supply is Underwater
The $BTC market is holding its breath at a critical juncture. On-chain data confirms that over 25% of the Bitcoin supply is now "underwater," meaning these holders bought higher and are currently sitting on paper losses. This substantial size of dormant supply introduces extreme capitulation risk. Top-buyers, feeling the pressure, could panic sell and drive prices into a deleveraging cascade. This is the definition of a fragile market balance.
However, this intense selling pressure is also the necessary ingredient for a market bottom. If the current supply can absorb the losses without a total collapse, we are approaching seller exhaustion. To escape this high-risk zone and restore confidence, $BTC must quickly reclaim the 0.75 quantile, which acts as initial resistance. A failure to advance from current levels means the path of least resistance is down, but breaking these supply-based cost levels could trigger a massive Relief Rally. The next few weeks are pivotal for the future direction of crypto.
This is not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #OnChain #CryptoAnalysis #MarketStructure #BTC
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