$BTC broke $67,568 — 3-month low, lowest since 19 August
Sequel to this morning's close-verdict post (05:43 PKT): the level that post flagged as must-hold just broke. Bitcoin closed Friday at $68,314, held $68,000 into the close — then kept falling through the night.
Snapshot — live 09:00 PKT, Binance: $66,966, -2.8% in 24h. Range $66,614-$70,214. 24h volume 26,273 BTC ($1.80B). RSI 14 at 27.3 (oversold). Fear & Greed 13, Extreme Fear.
What happened: no single new headline — the same three drivers from Friday kept working. Hot October CPI (+0.4% vs +0.3% expected) repriced Fed expectations; US spot BTC ETFs have now lost over $2.5B since 30 Oct (BigGo Finance); Nvidia's resignation shock kept tech in risk-off. CoinGlass: about $1.3B in liquidations in 24h, mostly longs. BTC is now -9.9% in 7 days, -16.4% in 30 days, and about 47% below its ~$126,000 October 2025 high.
Why $67,568 mattered: it was Friday's low and the line the morning post said must hold. The break is intraday so far — a daily close below it confirms the breakdown. Next clear level is $65,000. Mining difficulty retarget lands today (estimate about -9% this morning; landed figure not yet confirmed).
Expectations — Deribit options, 20 Nov expiry (6 days), spot $66,855, not a guarantee: above $70,000 by expiry 20%, below $65,000 28%, between the two 52%. A 4% move either way: up 29%, down 20%. Above the SMA200 ($73,092) only about 5%. ATM straddle $3,074 (4.6% of spot) — the market prices a move of about that size by expiry. Base-rate cross-check (from the morning post, closes down 4% or more, N=3): 0 up first, 2 down first, 1 flat — weak evidence, same direction.
Plan: do not chase, do not catch the knife blind. Long only on a daily close back above $70,000, stop below $67,568; targets $71,460 then $73,092. A daily close below $65,000 opens $64,181 (-4% level) then $60,000. Tiny size, spot only, no leverage. Confidence: Low.
$BTC #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto