Fed decision today, and most of the big banks agree on one thing: Warsh probably won't say what comes next.
If they hike, Citi, JPMorgan, Nomura and UBS all expect little forward guidance. Goldman thinks he may want several inflation reports before moving again. TD reads a hike today as more tightening in the pipeline.
The hard part is the message. BofA's point: hint at more hikes and markets start pricing 100bp+, sound soft and the 2% target loses credibility. Deutsche Bank frames the cycle as taking back last year's 75bp of risk-management cuts and returning policy to restrictive.
$BTC $ETH #Fed #FOMC #Warsh
If they hike, Citi, JPMorgan, Nomura and UBS all expect little forward guidance. Goldman thinks he may want several inflation reports before moving again. TD reads a hike today as more tightening in the pipeline.
The hard part is the message. BofA's point: hint at more hikes and markets start pricing 100bp+, sound soft and the 2% target loses credibility. Deutsche Bank frames the cycle as taking back last year's 75bp of risk-management cuts and returning policy to restrictive.
$BTC $ETH #Fed #FOMC #Warsh