๐จ FED HIKE INCOMING? FIRST RATE HIKE SINCE 2023 COULD HIT TODAY
Today at 2:00 PM ET, the Fed decides. Crypto's next big move could start here. ๐
๐ WHAT THE MARKET EXPECTS
โข CME FedWatch: ~90% odds of a 25 bps hike
โข Target range: 3.50%โ3.75% โ 3.75%โ4.00%
โข It would be the first Fed hike since July 2023
๐ฅ WHY THE FED IS TURNING HAWKISH
โข August CPI came in at 3.4%, above the 3.3% forecast
โข Core inflation rose 0.3% month over month, so price pressure is spreading beyond energy
โข Gasoline is up 27.4% YoY as the Iran conflict keeps oil elevated
โข Three FOMC members already voted for a hike in July
๐ง THE REAL TRADE ISN'T THE HIKE, IT'S THE GUIDANCE
With a hike almost fully priced in, the market reaction will depend on what comes next:
1๏ธโฃ Hike + hawkish dot plot (more hikes signaled)
โ Stronger dollar, higher yields, more pressure on BTC and alts
2๏ธโฃ Hike + "data-dependent / one and done" tone
โ Classic "sell the rumor, buy the news" relief bounce is possible
3๏ธโฃ Surprise hold
โ Sharp short-term pump likely, but the Fed's inflation credibility gets questioned
๐ WATCH AT 2:30 PM ET (WARSH PRESS CONFERENCE)
โข Dot plot: is a December hike signaled?
โข 2Y Treasury yield: the fastest read on rate expectations
โข DXY: a dollar spike usually means risk-off
โข BTC volume: moves without volume often reverse
โ ๏ธ TRADER'S RULE
The first candle after FOMC is often a fakeout. Wait for the press conference, let liquidity settle, then confirm direction. Protect capital first, use stop losses, and don't overleverage.
Nothing is confirmed until the Fed releases its statement.
What's your call: hike, hold, or hawkish surprise? ๐
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#FOMC #FederalReserve #Fed #KevinWarsh #MarketUpdate
Today at 2:00 PM ET, the Fed decides. Crypto's next big move could start here. ๐
๐ WHAT THE MARKET EXPECTS
โข CME FedWatch: ~90% odds of a 25 bps hike
โข Target range: 3.50%โ3.75% โ 3.75%โ4.00%
โข It would be the first Fed hike since July 2023
๐ฅ WHY THE FED IS TURNING HAWKISH
โข August CPI came in at 3.4%, above the 3.3% forecast
โข Core inflation rose 0.3% month over month, so price pressure is spreading beyond energy
โข Gasoline is up 27.4% YoY as the Iran conflict keeps oil elevated
โข Three FOMC members already voted for a hike in July
๐ง THE REAL TRADE ISN'T THE HIKE, IT'S THE GUIDANCE
With a hike almost fully priced in, the market reaction will depend on what comes next:
1๏ธโฃ Hike + hawkish dot plot (more hikes signaled)
โ Stronger dollar, higher yields, more pressure on BTC and alts
2๏ธโฃ Hike + "data-dependent / one and done" tone
โ Classic "sell the rumor, buy the news" relief bounce is possible
3๏ธโฃ Surprise hold
โ Sharp short-term pump likely, but the Fed's inflation credibility gets questioned
๐ WATCH AT 2:30 PM ET (WARSH PRESS CONFERENCE)
โข Dot plot: is a December hike signaled?
โข 2Y Treasury yield: the fastest read on rate expectations
โข DXY: a dollar spike usually means risk-off
โข BTC volume: moves without volume often reverse
โ ๏ธ TRADER'S RULE
The first candle after FOMC is often a fakeout. Wait for the press conference, let liquidity settle, then confirm direction. Protect capital first, use stop losses, and don't overleverage.
Nothing is confirmed until the Fed releases its statement.
What's your call: hike, hold, or hawkish surprise? ๐
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#FOMC #FederalReserve #Fed #KevinWarsh #MarketUpdate
