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btc
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🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
🚨 $BTC UPDATE ‼️PPI + Jobless Claims in 30 Minutes 🚨Big Shakeout is on the way 🕷️
Never dare to skip this post.
BTC is around $63.4K and yes, structure is still bearish. 4H + 1H both are weak and BOS already happened on bearish side.
But I’m not blindly shorting here.
Two reasons:
1️⃣ BTC is now very close to $63K demand/support and lower TF is already oversold.
2️⃣ PPI + Jobless Claims are coming in next 30 minutes, so volatility can be crazy.
PPI forecast is around 4.9% vs 5.5% previous. If data comes around forecast or lower, market can easily give a bullish wick/pump first.
So I won’t trade before the data.
If BTC bounces towards $63.6K–$63.9K or near $64K and gives clean rejection, then SHORT will make much more sense with better RR.
Downside watch area: $62.8K–$62.9K.
If $63K breaks after hot data, this area becomes our next target.
And if $62K demand also starts breaking, then HTF structure gets much weaker and even $60K can come into play.
For now:
Bearish structure is confirmed
But bad place to chase SHORT
Let the data come. Let BTC show its hand first and then we will plane
I'm more aligned towards short scalp towards 62.2k dump anytime but location should be more better .Only risk is PPI data
I will update On time stay connected 🗿
Click here to Trade 👇$BTC
#BTC #USJulyCPI&PPIDueThisWeek #SheinSaidToLaunchHKIPOSubscriptionAroundAug20 #BankOfRussiaToLimitRetailCryptoFromSep1 #CiscoSharesFallDespiteBeatAndRaise
Never dare to skip this post.
BTC is around $63.4K and yes, structure is still bearish. 4H + 1H both are weak and BOS already happened on bearish side.
But I’m not blindly shorting here.
Two reasons:
1️⃣ BTC is now very close to $63K demand/support and lower TF is already oversold.
2️⃣ PPI + Jobless Claims are coming in next 30 minutes, so volatility can be crazy.
PPI forecast is around 4.9% vs 5.5% previous. If data comes around forecast or lower, market can easily give a bullish wick/pump first.
So I won’t trade before the data.
If BTC bounces towards $63.6K–$63.9K or near $64K and gives clean rejection, then SHORT will make much more sense with better RR.
Downside watch area: $62.8K–$62.9K.
If $63K breaks after hot data, this area becomes our next target.
And if $62K demand also starts breaking, then HTF structure gets much weaker and even $60K can come into play.
For now:
Bearish structure is confirmed
But bad place to chase SHORT
Let the data come. Let BTC show its hand first and then we will plane
I'm more aligned towards short scalp towards 62.2k dump anytime but location should be more better .Only risk is PPI data
I will update On time stay connected 🗿
Click here to Trade 👇$BTC
#BTC #USJulyCPI&PPIDueThisWeek #SheinSaidToLaunchHKIPOSubscriptionAroundAug20 #BankOfRussiaToLimitRetailCryptoFromSep1 #CiscoSharesFallDespiteBeatAndRaise
Rodger Miro S1CC:
give us your entery price and target. a tweet to confirm your entry price short or long.
🚨 DO NOT GET TRAPPED - THIS BITCOIN $BTC PUMP IS A DEADLY ILLUSION
We haven't rejected yet, but 90% of CT is reading this chart completely wrong
Price at $63,571 is mid-wave B, pumping straight into the Weekly 21 EMA resistance at $68k-$69k
Late retail is aggressively FOMOing into this wall while we repeating the exact same ABC fractal that crashed BTC from $126k to $60k
Here is the exact map I'm currently watching:
1. Rally completes Point B at the Weekly 21 EMA ($68k-$69k)
2. Wave C triggers a liquidity nuke to sweep the $56.7k July low
3. Main capitulation target: $49,117.61
4. Invalidation: Daily candle close above $71k
Save this chart before $68k hits. You will thank me later
Follow and turn notifications on so you don’t miss what’s coming!
#BTC
We haven't rejected yet, but 90% of CT is reading this chart completely wrong
Price at $63,571 is mid-wave B, pumping straight into the Weekly 21 EMA resistance at $68k-$69k
Late retail is aggressively FOMOing into this wall while we repeating the exact same ABC fractal that crashed BTC from $126k to $60k
Here is the exact map I'm currently watching:
1. Rally completes Point B at the Weekly 21 EMA ($68k-$69k)
2. Wave C triggers a liquidity nuke to sweep the $56.7k July low
3. Main capitulation target: $49,117.61
4. Invalidation: Daily candle close above $71k
Save this chart before $68k hits. You will thank me later
Follow and turn notifications on so you don’t miss what’s coming!
#BTC
ZE VE RIS:
Estoy holdeando btc
no voy a vender
esta bien?
【 BTC还在磨底！61000守住，69000-71000剧本依然有效！】
昨天CPI公布之后，盘面并没有出现预期中的大幅波动，BTC依然运行在复杂的小区间震荡之中，整体并没有出现改变大方向的信号。
所以结合前几天的判断，目前核心思路不变：短期继续观察61000美元附近的支撑，只要这里没有出现有效破位，前面构筑的头肩底结构依然值得期待。
我们前面已经开始分批重新布局现货，后续依然按照计划执行。如果BTC再次回踩61000附近，并且能够企稳，依然是比较舒服的补仓位置；如果支撑失守，再重新评估。
大方向上，我们依然倾向于先完成底部震荡，再向上突破，后续目标继续看69000-71000美元区间。
现在市场就是比拼耐心的时候，继续按照计划等机会。
#BTC $BTC #ETH $SOL
昨天CPI公布之后，盘面并没有出现预期中的大幅波动，BTC依然运行在复杂的小区间震荡之中，整体并没有出现改变大方向的信号。
所以结合前几天的判断，目前核心思路不变：短期继续观察61000美元附近的支撑，只要这里没有出现有效破位，前面构筑的头肩底结构依然值得期待。
我们前面已经开始分批重新布局现货，后续依然按照计划执行。如果BTC再次回踩61000附近，并且能够企稳，依然是比较舒服的补仓位置；如果支撑失守，再重新评估。
大方向上，我们依然倾向于先完成底部震荡，再向上突破，后续目标继续看69000-71000美元区间。
现在市场就是比拼耐心的时候，继续按照计划等机会。
#BTC $BTC #ETH $SOL
橙子研究院
·
--
【 别被CPI插针吓到！61000守住，BTC后面继续看69000-71000！】
今晚8点30分美国CPI数据公布，短线波动大概率会明显放大，所以今天不需要过度关注盘中的小幅震荡，重点看数据公布之后市场给出的真实方向。
结合昨天的思路，目前整体策略依然不变。BTC回踩到63500美元附近之后，距离我们前面反复强调的61000美元核心支撑已经越来越近。只要61000没有出现有效破位，我们依然倾向于把这里看作一次重新布局的机会。
尤其需要注意，如果今晚CPI公布后出现插针，BTC快速回踩61000附近，反而是我们考虑补仓的好机会。前面已经按照计划重新进了部分现货，后续可以继续采取分批布局的方式，不需要因为短线波动而恐慌。
大周期来看，头肩底结构依然值得期待，后续目标继续看69000-71000美元区间。
所以今晚核心就一句话：CPI看波动，61000看机会，守住支撑继续布局，目前已经 4 成仓位，给 61000 美金就补仓
#BTC $BTC #ETH $ETH $SOL
今晚8点30分美国CPI数据公布，短线波动大概率会明显放大，所以今天不需要过度关注盘中的小幅震荡，重点看数据公布之后市场给出的真实方向。
结合昨天的思路，目前整体策略依然不变。BTC回踩到63500美元附近之后，距离我们前面反复强调的61000美元核心支撑已经越来越近。只要61000没有出现有效破位，我们依然倾向于把这里看作一次重新布局的机会。
尤其需要注意，如果今晚CPI公布后出现插针，BTC快速回踩61000附近，反而是我们考虑补仓的好机会。前面已经按照计划重新进了部分现货，后续可以继续采取分批布局的方式，不需要因为短线波动而恐慌。
大周期来看，头肩底结构依然值得期待，后续目标继续看69000-71000美元区间。
所以今晚核心就一句话：CPI看波动，61000看机会，守住支撑继续布局，目前已经 4 成仓位，给 61000 美金就补仓
#BTC $BTC #ETH $ETH $SOL
景林先生:
收到
#BTC Немного философии. Чтобы рос биткоин, должны быть новые покупатели — это реально пирамида.🍕
Они есть, но я бы, например, не хотел брать биткоин по 60к, даже за 30к, но может за 10–15к, потому что это в десять раз меньше от хая. Такова философия крупных денег.
Упадет ли биткоин до 15к? Очень заманчиво, но в первую очередь зависит от веры холдеров в сам биток. Если нико не продаст то и цена никогда не окажется там. Но не забываем про Сатоши - главный холдер, резерв системы управления.
Как инструмент он теряет свою силу и оригинальность, он уже заюзаный. Но, если например только за биток будут продавать цифровое бессмертие или что-то подобное...))) он может обрести новую жизнь.
воскрешение 2.0
Они есть, но я бы, например, не хотел брать биткоин по 60к, даже за 30к, но может за 10–15к, потому что это в десять раз меньше от хая. Такова философия крупных денег.
Упадет ли биткоин до 15к? Очень заманчиво, но в первую очередь зависит от веры холдеров в сам биток. Если нико не продаст то и цена никогда не окажется там. Но не забываем про Сатоши - главный холдер, резерв системы управления.
Как инструмент он теряет свою силу и оригинальность, он уже заюзаный. Но, если например только за биток будут продавать цифровое бессмертие или что-то подобное...))) он может обрести новую жизнь.
воскрешение 2.0
镰刀判官
·
--
观察币安的公开钱包可以发现！
刚过去的两个小时，币安BTC库存上演了一出“先降后升”的过山车——
18:00：余额 581,994 BTC，1小时减少 1,827 BTC（-0.14%），看似有人在抄底提币，市场松了一口气。
19:00：余额 584,461 BTC，1小时反手增加 2,467 BTC，24小时累计流入 1,120 BTC（+0.19%）。
一进一出之间，库存不降反升。
抄底的资金确实有，但卖出的筹码更多——这一小时的净变化，把多空博弈的底色暴露得一清二楚。
今晚CPI若符合预期（3.4%），仅是多头“回光返照”，难改下行趋势；若超预期，直奔6万
抄底有，但跑路更多。CPI是最后口活气，6万不破皆反弹！
空就对了！
$BTC
刚过去的两个小时，币安BTC库存上演了一出“先降后升”的过山车——
18:00：余额 581,994 BTC，1小时减少 1,827 BTC（-0.14%），看似有人在抄底提币，市场松了一口气。
19:00：余额 584,461 BTC，1小时反手增加 2,467 BTC，24小时累计流入 1,120 BTC（+0.19%）。
一进一出之间，库存不降反升。
抄底的资金确实有，但卖出的筹码更多——这一小时的净变化，把多空博弈的底色暴露得一清二楚。
今晚CPI若符合预期（3.4%），仅是多头“回光返照”，难改下行趋势；若超预期，直奔6万
抄底有，但跑路更多。CPI是最后口活气，6万不破皆反弹！
空就对了！
$BTC
MY MARKET ROADMAP FOR 2026:
Q3 2026
• $BTC breaks below $50K and enters bottoming phase
• $SPX slides toward 6,900
• Market fear hits extreme levels
• Smart money starts loading BTC
• Institutional capital rotates back into crypto
Q4 2026
• #BTC reclaims major levels and pushes toward $95K+
• Liquidity starts flowing back into crypto
• $SPX recovers toward 7,200
• U.S. equities face a deeper correction
Q3 2026
• $BTC breaks below $50K and enters bottoming phase
• $SPX slides toward 6,900
• Market fear hits extreme levels
• Smart money starts loading BTC
• Institutional capital rotates back into crypto
Q4 2026
• #BTC reclaims major levels and pushes toward $95K+
• Liquidity starts flowing back into crypto
• $SPX recovers toward 7,200
• U.S. equities face a deeper correction
Aziz1221:
45300 3x 320000 game over
#BTC Liquidity Hunt: Before the Real Move🔥
Bitcoin $BTC is forming an ascending triangle below the main s/r zone on the daily chart.
Weak hands will be swept in both directions before the macro move begins.
Recent selling pressure has been created by ETF outflows, and key support levels of $62,000 and $58,000 could be retested before the trend resumes.
Short-term holder supply is near historic lows. Every major Bitcoin price movement in history has started with this exact pattern.
Mid-term targets after the s/r breakout:
🎯 $70,500
🎯 $76,000
🎯 $83,000
Bitcoin $BTC is forming an ascending triangle below the main s/r zone on the daily chart.
Weak hands will be swept in both directions before the macro move begins.
Recent selling pressure has been created by ETF outflows, and key support levels of $62,000 and $58,000 could be retested before the trend resumes.
Short-term holder supply is near historic lows. Every major Bitcoin price movement in history has started with this exact pattern.
Mid-term targets after the s/r breakout:
🎯 $70,500
🎯 $76,000
🎯 $83,000
Shae Malouf kLk1:
Esse triângulo so faz volta kkkkkkkkkk
📉 还能抄底吗？先分清反弹和反转
我之前一直说，做多是在刀尖上舔血，不是让你真把自己舔到流血。
很多人不愿承认趋势已经偏空，不一定是看不懂，而是手里那张浮亏的多单，让自己不愿意面对。
前面我明确提过63,500—63,800的𝗙𝗩𝗚。价格回补后确实出现了反弹，但注意我的用词：这是反弹，不是反转。64,000—65,000都站不上去，现在谈67,000没有太大意义。
那还能不能抄底？可以，但我只会把它当成短线博反弹。
行情不断创新低时，可以参考最新低点，小仓位尝试，止损必须提前放好。最怕的是嘴上说博反弹，跌了以后却改成长线，最后越套越深。
同样，今晚看到跌了这么多再去追空，也未必舒服。白天亚盘很可能先做一轮修复，一修复，市场又开始喊“牛回”；等到晚上卖压重新出现，追在高位的多单只能选择撤掉止损，祈祷价格再拉回去解套。
我的思路很简单：低点附近只做小仓反弹，64,000—65,000没有重新站稳之前，中期依然偏空。不在急跌末端追空，也不会把反弹当成反转，更不会撤掉止损等解套。
以上内容仅为个人行情分析与交易思路记录，不构成任何投资建议。请根据自身情况控制仓位和风险。
#BTC #比特币 #行情分析
我之前一直说，做多是在刀尖上舔血，不是让你真把自己舔到流血。
很多人不愿承认趋势已经偏空，不一定是看不懂，而是手里那张浮亏的多单，让自己不愿意面对。
前面我明确提过63,500—63,800的𝗙𝗩𝗚。价格回补后确实出现了反弹，但注意我的用词：这是反弹，不是反转。64,000—65,000都站不上去，现在谈67,000没有太大意义。
那还能不能抄底？可以，但我只会把它当成短线博反弹。
行情不断创新低时，可以参考最新低点，小仓位尝试，止损必须提前放好。最怕的是嘴上说博反弹，跌了以后却改成长线，最后越套越深。
同样，今晚看到跌了这么多再去追空，也未必舒服。白天亚盘很可能先做一轮修复，一修复，市场又开始喊“牛回”；等到晚上卖压重新出现，追在高位的多单只能选择撤掉止损，祈祷价格再拉回去解套。
我的思路很简单：低点附近只做小仓反弹，64,000—65,000没有重新站稳之前，中期依然偏空。不在急跌末端追空，也不会把反弹当成反转，更不会撤掉止损等解套。
以上内容仅为个人行情分析与交易思路记录，不构成任何投资建议。请根据自身情况控制仓位和风险。
#BTC #比特币 #行情分析
ຊື້ຂາຍ 30 ມື້ $BTC1.5K USDT
BTC cotiza ahora cerca de 63,583.39 USDT en Binance. En las últimas 24 horas, abrió alrededor de 64,400.00, marcó un máximo de 64,500.00 y un mínimo de 63,310.34. Eso implica una variación diaria aproximada de -1.27%, así que hoy va ligeramente a la baja. Si quieres una lectura rápida: el precio sigue moviéndose dentro de un rango estrecho, con presión vendedora moderada en la sesión actual. Recuerda que el mercado cripto puede cambiar muy rápido, así que este dato es una foto del momento, no una garantía de dirección futura.
$BTC
#BTC
$BTC
#BTC
$BTC Tui đi trc gồng trc để xem hôm nay gồng tiếp k nhé 😂
💥Entry 63k6 - 64k
💥SL > 64k9
💥TP1 62k5 - 62k8
💥TP2 61k5 - 61k8
#BTC
#TradingSignals
#SwingTrade
#ScalpingTrading
Bấm vào đây để giao dịch 👇👇👇
💥Entry 63k6 - 64k
💥SL > 64k9
💥TP1 62k5 - 62k8
💥TP2 61k5 - 61k8
#BTC
#TradingSignals
#SwingTrade
#ScalpingTrading
Bấm vào đây để giao dịch 👇👇👇
DAY 1 BEGINS NOW . NEXT FEW DAYS. EVERY TRADE. FULL TRANSPARENCY.
For the next days, I’m opening up my trading process in real time.
Every setup will be shared with the analysis, entry, risk, targets, management and final outcome
Some trades will hit TP.
Some will hit SL.
Both will be documented.
At the end of DayS, we won’t talk about opinions.
We’ll look at the numbers, decisions, mistakes, execution and results.
Because a trader isn’t defined by never being wrong.
A trader is defined by what happens when they are.
I’m not asking you to trust my words.
Watch the process. Track the trades. Judge the results.
#USJulyCPI&PPIDueThisWeek #BTC #SamsungSKHynixLeadSeoulRally
For the next days, I’m opening up my trading process in real time.
Every setup will be shared with the analysis, entry, risk, targets, management and final outcome
Some trades will hit TP.
Some will hit SL.
Both will be documented.
At the end of DayS, we won’t talk about opinions.
We’ll look at the numbers, decisions, mistakes, execution and results.
Because a trader isn’t defined by never being wrong.
A trader is defined by what happens when they are.
I’m not asking you to trust my words.
Watch the process. Track the trades. Judge the results.
#USJulyCPI&PPIDueThisWeek #BTC #SamsungSKHynixLeadSeoulRally
EmmaCalls:
Transparency builds trust. Sharing both wins and losses is what makes the process valuable.
庄家最怕的就是你看懂了这一步，可惜99%的人看不懂。
$BTC 回调即上车，减半前最后窗口
63,207是机构托底价，数字黄金逻辑未变。
总量2100万锁死铸币税，每枚都是硬通货。
机构重仓筹码集中，当前波动是洗盘非转向。
减半周期倒计时，供应缺口即将二次放大。
这个位置犹豫，下一站就是七万起步。
入场：62,991.21 🟢
目标 1：66,368.22 🎯
目标 2：69,528.61 🎯
止损：61,311.60 🔴
方向：看多
#Web3 #交易心得 #BinanceSquare #BTC
$BTC 回调即上车，减半前最后窗口
63,207是机构托底价，数字黄金逻辑未变。
总量2100万锁死铸币税，每枚都是硬通货。
机构重仓筹码集中，当前波动是洗盘非转向。
减半周期倒计时，供应缺口即将二次放大。
这个位置犹豫，下一站就是七万起步。
入场：62,991.21 🟢
目标 1：66,368.22 🎯
目标 2：69,528.61 🎯
止损：61,311.60 🔴
方向：看多
#Web3 #交易心得 #BinanceSquare #BTC
$BTC 报 63459 美元,24 小时 -1.23%。F&G 29 还在恐惧区,晚上 8 点链上这边我数了数:ETH 质押刚冲到 34.7% 历史新高,锁了 785 亿美元。
链上越锁越紧,价格越磨越冷。微策略那边倒是喊话,8 月 17 日创始人要跟 CEO 一起做投资者直播,钱往哪走他肯定比我门清。
这盘是真冷还是装冷,等周日那场直播就能看明白。
#微策略周日起直播问答 #以太坊质押比例创新高 #BTC
链上越锁越紧,价格越磨越冷。微策略那边倒是喊话,8 月 17 日创始人要跟 CEO 一起做投资者直播,钱往哪走他肯定比我门清。
这盘是真冷还是装冷,等周日那场直播就能看明白。
#微策略周日起直播问答 #以太坊质押比例创新高 #BTC
jasmine_love_BNB:
Bro please follow me 🥺🙏🏻💗
$BTC 现价63660，24h -0.84%，成交量约760亿 USDT
今晚大饼又软了一截。早盘冲到64500上方没站住，欧美时段一路回吐，最低打到63310，现在63660附近挂着。这根日线收得不好看——上影比实体长，说明64500那道去年下半年反复测试的供给区，空头还在那压着。量能760亿，比昨天908亿缩了一截，不是恐慌砸盘，更像是多头上不去、主动减仓撤退。
📊 技术面
1h和4h现在都贴着布林中轨下方走，短周期均线（MA20/50）已经拧成空头排列，EMA12下穿EMA26，MACD在零轴下方继续张口。日线级别看，MA50（约63200）还没破，但MA200（约60000）远在下方，中期趋势没坏，只是这波从7万上方下来的回调还没确认止跌。RSI在1h上落到38附近，没到超卖，说明往下还有空间。关键支撑先看63300前低，破了看62500（8月初那波平台的颈线）；上方64500是硬阻力，再上面66000是套牢密集区。
💧 衍生品与链上
资金费率0.000059，正的但极薄，多空几乎打平，市场没多少杠杆情绪。OI还有11万枚BTC，比前阵子缩了，说明撤退的不是爆仓是主动减。多空账户比1.73，多头占六成三——这种结构下如果63300真破了，多头踩踏会比想象中快。Fear&Greed只有29，恐慌区，但还没到极度恐慌（<20），抄底资金还在等更便宜的筹码。
📰 消息面
公开新闻检索这边走不通，不编。能确认的是：现货ETF近期净流整体偏中性偏弱，机构这边没有明显的主动加仓信号，和费率、OI的收缩能对上。宏观上美元和美债收益率这两天小反弹，对风险资产是软压制。
👉 我的看法
短线偏空但不追空。63300不破还能磨，破了就往62500看，那是更好的接筹位。中期我仍然看周线级别的箱体，60000-66000没破之前谈不上趋势反转。真要转多，得等日线重新站回64500并且放量，那时候再谈追。
仅供参考，不构成投资建议
$BTC $ETH #BTC #行情分析 #合约 #宏观
今晚大饼又软了一截。早盘冲到64500上方没站住，欧美时段一路回吐，最低打到63310，现在63660附近挂着。这根日线收得不好看——上影比实体长，说明64500那道去年下半年反复测试的供给区，空头还在那压着。量能760亿，比昨天908亿缩了一截，不是恐慌砸盘，更像是多头上不去、主动减仓撤退。
📊 技术面
1h和4h现在都贴着布林中轨下方走，短周期均线（MA20/50）已经拧成空头排列，EMA12下穿EMA26，MACD在零轴下方继续张口。日线级别看，MA50（约63200）还没破，但MA200（约60000）远在下方，中期趋势没坏，只是这波从7万上方下来的回调还没确认止跌。RSI在1h上落到38附近，没到超卖，说明往下还有空间。关键支撑先看63300前低，破了看62500（8月初那波平台的颈线）；上方64500是硬阻力，再上面66000是套牢密集区。
💧 衍生品与链上
资金费率0.000059，正的但极薄，多空几乎打平，市场没多少杠杆情绪。OI还有11万枚BTC，比前阵子缩了，说明撤退的不是爆仓是主动减。多空账户比1.73，多头占六成三——这种结构下如果63300真破了，多头踩踏会比想象中快。Fear&Greed只有29，恐慌区，但还没到极度恐慌（<20），抄底资金还在等更便宜的筹码。
📰 消息面
公开新闻检索这边走不通，不编。能确认的是：现货ETF近期净流整体偏中性偏弱，机构这边没有明显的主动加仓信号，和费率、OI的收缩能对上。宏观上美元和美债收益率这两天小反弹，对风险资产是软压制。
👉 我的看法
短线偏空但不追空。63300不破还能磨，破了就往62500看，那是更好的接筹位。中期我仍然看周线级别的箱体，60000-66000没破之前谈不上趋势反转。真要转多，得等日线重新站回64500并且放量，那时候再谈追。
仅供参考，不构成投资建议
$BTC $ETH #BTC #行情分析 #合约 #宏观
风中浪客:
64500这位置确实硬，量能缩了说明多空都在观望，$BTC 今晚大概率还是震荡洗盘，别急着追空。
По биткоину 🟢
Плавно начинает возобновляться коррекция и сейчас уже торгуемся в районе $63 600.
В 15:30 выйдут данные по индексу цен производителей в США, которые в зависимости от результата могут еще локально пошатать цену. Но после этого, будем ждать более уверенного движения биткоина вниз.
#btc
Плавно начинает возобновляться коррекция и сейчас уже торгуемся в районе $63 600.
В 15:30 выйдут данные по индексу цен производителей в США, которые в зависимости от результата могут еще локально пошатать цену. Но после этого, будем ждать более уверенного движения биткоина вниз.
#btc
📊 BTC深度分析 | 08-13 15:23 UTC
当前价：$63,828
🔍 核心结构判断
① GEX（期权Gamma暴露）：负Gamma区
零翻转线ZeroFlip = $63,350
当前价在ZF上方仅+$478
➜ 做市商净做空对冲，向下波动被放大
➜ 一旦跌破$63,350 → 负Gamma激活 → 加速下行
② 清算分布（三所实时）
上方：$229M @ $63,950（+$122）
下方：$78M @ $63,631（-$197）
➜ 上方清算量3倍于下方 → 市场更倾向先扫上方流动性
③ 结构
1H：DOWNTREND（空头短期主导）
4H：RANGING（中期横盘震荡）
1H空OB：$63,698~$63,950（机构空头防守区）
④ 资金面
OI +0.94%（新资金持续入场建仓）
FR +0.0078%（多头付费，16:00结算）
LSR 62.3%多头（中性偏多，非拥挤）
🎯 操作逻辑
路线预判：
$63,828 → 拉至$63,950（触发$229M空头止损）
→ 1H空OB压制+GEX负Gamma反压
→ 跌破$63,631 → $63,350（ZF）→ $63,000
空单埋伏：$63,846~$63,950
止损：$64,390
目标：$63,350 / $63,000
R:R = 1.11 / 1.83
⚠️ 不追单，等反弹进OB区间
16:00 FR结算前做空窗口
当前价：$63,828
🔍 核心结构判断
① GEX（期权Gamma暴露）：负Gamma区
零翻转线ZeroFlip = $63,350
当前价在ZF上方仅+$478
➜ 做市商净做空对冲，向下波动被放大
➜ 一旦跌破$63,350 → 负Gamma激活 → 加速下行
② 清算分布（三所实时）
上方：$229M @ $63,950（+$122）
下方：$78M @ $63,631（-$197）
➜ 上方清算量3倍于下方 → 市场更倾向先扫上方流动性
③ 结构
1H：DOWNTREND（空头短期主导）
4H：RANGING（中期横盘震荡）
1H空OB：$63,698~$63,950（机构空头防守区）
④ 资金面
OI +0.94%（新资金持续入场建仓）
FR +0.0078%（多头付费，16:00结算）
LSR 62.3%多头（中性偏多，非拥挤）
🎯 操作逻辑
路线预判：
$63,828 → 拉至$63,950（触发$229M空头止损）
→ 1H空OB压制+GEX负Gamma反压
→ 跌破$63,631 → $63,350（ZF）→ $63,000
空单埋伏：$63,846~$63,950
止损：$64,390
目标：$63,350 / $63,000
R:R = 1.11 / 1.83
⚠️ 不追单，等反弹进OB区间
16:00 FR结算前做空窗口
ເຂົ້າສູ່ລະບົບເພື່ອສຳຫຼວດເນື້ອຫາເພີ່ມເຕີມ