$AVAX keeps grinding along the bottom of its range and I don't love how quiet it is. Price is around 8.81, the 24h low tagged 8.67, and it's been sliding lower since that bounce near 10.2 about a week ago.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart 4h the heatmap shows a thick liquidity band right around 9.00 stretching across most of the chart, so every bounce into 9 has been getting sold. Above that, the next real pocket is the bright block near 10.00. Below price there isn't much on the map until the lows, which is what bugs me.
Binance futures look like dip buyers are still positioned for a bounce that isn't coming yet. Open interest bled from about $89.5M to $86.4M over the last day, funding is basically flat, and roughly 60% of accounts are long while top traders sit around 69% long (L/S 2.24). Crowded longs plus falling OI near range lows usually means one more flush first.
My read: as long as $AVAX stays under 9.00 I'm leaning bearish and watching for a wick below 8.67. A clean 4h reclaim of 9.00 would flip me and put 10.00 back in play.
Do you think 9 flips to support this week or do we see 8.5 first?
NFA, just my chart notes 👀
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$BTC keeps getting sold into 81k. Today's range is 79,178 to 80,999 and price is sitting around 80,458, under the value area low at 80,855 on the 4h.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart the volume POC is up at 81,688, and right above price there are short liquidation stacks labeled about $3.57B and $3.03B around 81,000 to 81,300, plus another ~$3.26B near 83,700. Bright orange liquidity bands sit higher at roughly 85k and 87k. Below, the heatmap thins out with a small orange pocket near 79,400.
Binance futures data: OI slipped from about $7.75B to $7.50B over the last day, funding is positive but mild at 0.006% per 8h, and the long/short account ratio is still 2.10 with top traders at 1.67. So the crowd is long while price drifts lower.
My read: a 4h close back above 80,855 puts the 81k short stacks in play and $BTC could squeeze toward the 81.7k POC fast. Lose 79,178 and those crowded longs become the fuel down to the 79.4k pocket 👀
Are you fading 81k again or betting on the squeeze?
NFA, just my chart notes.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$HYPE has been stuck in a tight box all day, 74.41 to 76.88, and it's sitting around 75.9 right now. Every push toward 77 has been sold, and the last 4h candle closed red again.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4h) price is trading under the value area low at about 76.8, with the volume POC way up at 81.42. There's a fat ~$88.7M liquidation cluster parked around 81.5, right on that POC, and a ~$64.2M pocket just under price near 74.5. Orange liquidity bands are stacked at 74-75 too, so that floor is getting tested from both sides.
Binance futures data: OI has drifted from about $325M to $316M over the last day, so no fresh money chasing it. Funding cooled from 0.0049% to 0.0010% per 8h, but top traders are still heavily long at a 2.67 position ratio, with accounts at 1.70.
My read: $HYPE needs to reclaim 76.8 to open the trip back to the 81 POC and that $88.7M cluster. If 74.4 breaks instead, that crowded long side is the fuel and the 74.5 pocket gets swept fast ⚡
Are you buying this range low or waiting for the 74 sweep first?
NFA, just my chart notes.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$BNB bounced clean off 717.65 today and is sitting around 740 now, up about 1% on the day. The push stalled at 749 though, and the last 4h candle is giving a bit of it back.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4h) the volume POC is at 730.86, with the value area running from 715.12 up to 755.59. There's a short liquidation tag of about $36.2M sitting just under 750 and a much fatter long cluster around $75.5M down in the mid-720s. Above that, a thick liquidity wall stacks right around 760, just over the VAH.
Binance futures data: open interest climbed from roughly $396M to $409M over the last few 4h prints as price recovered, funding is basically flat, and the crowd is cooling off. The account long/short ratio dropped from 2.90 to 2.29 in about 8 hours, so the over-eager longs have been thinning out.
My read: $BNB needs a 4h close over 750 to grab those shorts and test the 760 wall. Lose the 730 POC and that $75M long pocket in the 720s becomes the magnet 🧲
Which way do you think it sweeps first, 750 or 725?
NFA, just my chart notes.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$SUI just slipped under the whole range, down about 4% today and printing 0.9103 after a 0.9029 low. It got rejected at 0.9528 early in the day and every 4h candle since has been a lower high.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4h) the volume POC is way up at 1.040 and the value area low sits at 0.965, so price is now trading below value for the first time in weeks. The heatmap has liquidation tags of roughly $81M near 0.97 and $80.5M near 1.04, plus a band right around 0.90 that price is leaning on now.
Binance futures data is the interesting part. Open interest went from about $98.4M to $102.6M over the last few 4h prints while price dropped, so new positions are piling in on the way down. Around 65.7% of accounts are still long (L/S about 1.91) and funding stays slightly positive, so a lot of people are trying to catch this.
My read: lose 0.90 on a 4h close and $SUI probably flushes those late longs. Reclaim 0.965 and the value area low turns into a trampoline back toward 1.00 👀
Are you buying this dip or waiting for 0.90 to break first?
NFA, just my chart notes.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$XRP is pinned right on its volume POC again, trading around 1.294 after bouncing from the 1.2535 low yesterday and getting rejected at 1.3154.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4h) the POC sits at 1.303 with value area low at 1.285, so price is literally sitting inside the tightest part of the range. The liquidation heatmap has three big clusters stacked between roughly 1.33 and 1.36, each tagged around $96M-$122M, and the order book view shows the real ask walls much higher at about 1.455 and 1.50-1.51.
Binance futures says the crowd is very long. About 75.5% of accounts are long (L/S around 3.08) and top traders are near 66% long. Funding flipped from negative to 0.01% over the last two prints, while OI slipped from about $402M to $396M. Longs paying more while OI shrinks isn't a strong look to me.
My plan: lose 1.285 on a 4h close and I expect a sweep of the 1.25 lows where all those longs sit. Hold 1.303 and push through 1.3154 and $XRP probably goes hunting that 1.33-1.36 cluster fast 👀
Which side do you think gets squeezed first here?
NFA, just how I'm reading it.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$SOL is sitting right on the 100 handle again, around 100.5 and down about 0.7% on the day, after that 98.51 wick earlier that got bought pretty fast.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4h) the volume POC is up at 104.12 and value area low is about 101.25, so price has slipped under value. The liquidation heatmap shows the short liquidation bands stacked above, with the thickest ones roughly around 108.5 and 120, and heavy ask liquidity between 108 and 111. Below price the bid bands near 100-101 look thin.
Binance futures data says the crowd is still leaning long. About 74% of accounts are long (L/S around 2.83, slowly dropping) and top traders sit near 69% long. Funding is mildly positive at ~0.0079%, and OI has drifted down from about $886M to $865M, so nobody is adding size here.
My read: losing 100 on a 4h close opens a retest of that 98.5 wick, and with thin bids that could be quick. A reclaim of 101.25 and then 104 puts $SOL back in value and the 108.5 shorts become the magnet 👀
Do you trust the 100 level one more time or wait for the POC reclaim?
NFA, just how I'm reading it.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$MSFT reports after the US close on Oct 28 and the Binance Pick crowd is pretty confident: "Will Microsoft beat quarterly earnings?" is trading around 77% Yes, with the yes side sitting at 0.84 on Pick. Bar to clear is GAAP EPS above $4.82.
This is the side I'm leaning too. Microsoft guided Azure to 44-45% growth in constant currency for this quarter, and they've been setting that guide up to beat all year. Hood already said demand is still running ahead of supply, so the question is more how much capacity they turned into revenue than whether the demand is there.
What could still go wrong is the stuff that doesn't show up in a beat/miss question. Capex is guided above $50B for the quarter. A clean EPS beat with an ugly capex or margin line can still turn into a sell-the-news candle on $MSFT , so I'd separate "beats the number" from "stock goes up". Event closes Oct 29 05:00 KST.
Anyone actually on the No side here at 22%, or is $MSFT the easiest yes on the board? 👀
$GOOGL earnings are up next and the Binance Pick crowd is surprisingly bearish: "Will Google beat quarterly earnings?" sits at 23% Yes vs 76% No right now.
That's the odd one out on the board. MSFT is priced 77% Yes, V 76%, AMZN 61%, LLY 63%. So the market thinks big tech mostly delivers this quarter, except Alphabet. Either people know something about the bar being set high, or the No side is crowded.
My take: I wouldn't fade Alphabet that hard on a beat/miss question. Search and cloud are the two things to watch on the call, and the post-earnings move will probably care more about capex guidance than the headline print. A 23% Yes looks cheap to me, but I'm keeping size small until the numbers drop. Event closes Oct 28 06:00 KST.
Are you with the 76% on No, or is the crowd wrong on $GOOGL this time?
$ETH is chopping around 2,338 after a slow bleed from 2,370, down about 1.4% on the day, and the 2,281 wick from yesterday is still the low everyone remembers.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4h) the volume POC sits around 2,408, so price is trading below value right now. The liquidation map shows the heavy short side stacked above, two short clusters of roughly $3.4B each around 2,420-2,440, while the biggest long cluster is about $1.26B near 2,300. Thick ask bands show up near 2,500 and 2,550, and the strongest bid band is down near 2,255.
Binance futures data is what caught my eye. About 75% of accounts are long (L/S around 3.07), but top traders are only about 63% long and that ratio is slowly dropping. Funding ticked up to ~0.0078%, and OI is flat around $5.37B after flushing from $5.5B. Retail leaning hard long while price sits under POC is not a great combo.
My read: as long as $ETH stays under 2,408 I expect a sweep of that 2,300 long pocket first, maybe a wick toward 2,255. A 4h close back above 2,408 flips it and puts those 2,420-2,440 shorts in danger fast 👀
Are you buying the 2,300 dip or waiting for a reclaim of the POC?
NFA, just how I'm reading it.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$ZEC bounced hard off 1,119 yesterday and ran to 1,225, but it stalled right at the volume POC and is back around 1,192 now, still up about 2.4% on the day.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4h) the POC sits near 1,226 with a thick ask band at 1,260-1,265 above it. The liquidation map is the interesting part: a short cluster of roughly $243M sits right on top of price around 1,200-1,215, and the bigger ones (about $242M and $258M) stack at 1,327-1,335. Longs are thinner, about $177M near 1,120-1,125, with bids around 1,130 and 1,095-1,100.
Binance futures: OI climbed from about $495M to $523M during the push and has cooled to about $516M. Funding is mildly positive (~0.005%), accounts are split about 51/49 long, top traders about 58% long. Not crowded either way.
My read: a clean 4h close above 1,226 probably runs those shorts and opens 1,260 then the 1,330 pocket. Lose 1,130 and I'd expect the 1,120 long cluster to get tagged first. Leaning up while $ZEC holds 1,130 🔥
Do you think shorts at 1,200 get squeezed this week or does the POC hold?
NFA, just my read.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$DOGE keeps getting sold into the same spot. It's sitting around 0.0770 now, down about 1.5% on the day, after another 4h rejection under 0.0780 and a wick down to 0.0747 earlier.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4h) the volume POC is right overhead at about 0.0780, with the heaviest ask band at 0.0780-0.0785 on top of it. Below price there's a dense bid band and a thick long liquidation cluster at roughly 0.0748-0.0765. The short liq clusters are much further up, around 0.085-0.086 and 0.090.
Binance futures look crowded on one side. OI is flat at about $211M, funding is basically neutral, and around 73% of accounts are long. Top traders are about 74% long too, so there aren't many shorts left to squeeze.
My read: as long as $DOGE can't close a 4h back above 0.0785, I think it's more likely to sweep that 0.075-0.0765 long pocket before anything else. If it reclaims 0.0785 with volume, the path toward 0.085 opens up. Watching which side breaks first 🐕
Would you fade the 0.078 rejection here or wait for the sweep under 0.075?
NFA, just how i see it.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$PEPE has given back pretty much the whole pump. The 1000PEPE perp ripped to 0.00512 a few days ago and it's now back at 0.00437, down about 2.5% on the day after getting rejected again around 0.00450.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4h) the bids are thin right under price, with a small cluster at 0.00425-0.0043, and then the real support is lower: the volume POC sits around 0.0040 and the liquidation map has its thickest long clusters stacked from roughly 0.0039 to 0.0042. Above, there's a band of short liqs at 0.00445-0.00455 and then the heavy ones at 0.0048 and 0.0050.
Binance futures are not helping the bulls. OI is basically flat around $86M, funding still slightly positive, and about 72% of accounts are long. That's a crowded long side sitting on top of a liquidation pocket, while top traders are a lot less keen at roughly 59% long.
My read: until $PEPE gets a 4h close back above 0.00455, I think a sweep into 0.0040-0.0042 is more likely than a squeeze. If that sweep gets bought fast, that's the long I'd want, aiming back at 0.0045. Patience here 🐸
Are you buying the 0.0040 area if it comes, or do you think it bounces before that?
NFA, just my read.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$DOT is down ~4.3% on Binance futures today, sitting around 1.03 after wicking 1.022. It's basically been a staircase lower since the 1.18 pop a couple days ago, every 4h close a little worse than the last.
The interesting part is positioning. Price is falling but OI went from ~29.8M to ~32.3M DOT over the last day or so, and funding just flipped negative (~-0.011%). ~60% of accounts are long and top traders are ~69% long by position. So new shorts are piling in while a lot of longs are still holding the bag.
NanoTrading Fire chart 4h: thick bid walls right under us at 1.00-1.05, the 1.00 area is dense. Overhead the bright walls are 1.12-1.13 and 1.15-1.17, with POC up near 1.158. Liquidation heatmap has the tightest clusters at 1.00-1.03 below and the big one up at 1.20-1.21.
My read: 1.00 is the make-or-break. Hold it with funding negative and OI rising and this can squeeze back into 1.12-1.15 fast. Lose it and those stacked longs probably get flushed. Keeping an eye on $BTC too 👀
Squeeze from 1.00 or does $DOT lose the round number first?
NFA, just my chart notes.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$ADA has been bleeding slowly all day, down ~2.3% on Binance futures and sitting at 0.2058 after tagging 0.2001 earlier. The 4h candle that broke below 0.208 printed the biggest volume of the last few days (~$50M), and every bounce since has been weaker.
Positioning is crowded on the wrong side for a bounce story. OI is flat around 332M ADA, funding is slightly positive (~0.0086%), and ~64% of accounts are long with top traders ~63% long on positions. Lots of people waiting for a reversal.
NanoTrading Fire chart 4h: the order walls are stacked above us, roughly at 0.2225, 0.230, 0.238 and 0.244, with value area low way up near 0.215. Below there's basically one real bid band around 0.200. The liquidation heatmap has its thick bands overhead from 0.22 to 0.24, and only a thin cluster at 0.200-0.203 under price.
My read: 0.200 is the line. If it holds and we reclaim 0.208, those overhead liq bands become a magnet toward 0.215-0.22. If 0.200 breaks with longs this crowded, it can flush fast. Watching $BTC for direction too 👀
Are you buying $ADA at 0.20 or waiting for the flush first?
NFA, just my chart notes.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$NEAR got smacked to 4.20 yesterday on the heaviest 4h volume of the week, then bought right back. Now it's just sitting at 4.48, still ~3% red on the day on Binance futures, and it hasn't done much since.
Leverage is slowly leaving. OI peaked around 55.0M NEAR and is down to ~52.6M, and funding is basically flat at zero. But the crowd hasn't given up on the long side: ~56% of accounts are long, and top traders hold ~67% long on positions.
NanoTrading Fire chart 4h shows the problem pretty clearly. Every labeled wall is short side and it's stacked above price: ~$95M right on top of us near 4.49, ~$166M around 4.85-4.9, and the fat ~$186M one at 5.0, right on the POC (4.995). VAL is up at 4.748. The liquidation heatmap has its thick bands up at 5.0-5.1 and 5.3-5.5, with a smaller cluster just under price into 4.3-4.4.
My read: no squeeze until it eats that 4.49 wall and gets back over 4.75. Lose 4.3 and it probably goes for the 4.20 wick again. Keeping one eye on $BTC too 👀
Do you think $NEAR has the bids to chew through 4.9-5.0, or is that wall the cap for now?
NFA, just my chart notes.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$LINK lost the 11.8 area yesterday and still can't get back above it. Wicked down to 11.23 overnight, bounced, and now it's just drifting around 11.57, about 2% red on Binance futures.
Positioning is pretty boring which is kind of the point. Funding keeps flipping between slightly positive and slightly negative, now ~0.005%, and OI is flat around 8.0M LINK after peaking near 8.16M. Nobody's pressing it either way. Retail is ~62% long accounts and top traders sit ~69% long on positions, trimming a bit each 4h print.
NanoTrading Fire chart 4h is where it gets interesting. Price sits right under VAL 11.807, POC is 12.005, and the short side has two fat marks ($57.0M and $76.8M) stacked around 11.95-12.1. The liquidation heatmap shows bands under price at ~11.4-11.5 and ~11.2, which is basically where that overnight wick got bought.
My read: as long as 11.2 holds, a reclaim of 11.8 puts that 12.0 short stack in play fast. Lose 11.2 and it probably runs the ~11.0 band first. Watching $BTC for the trigger 👀
Do you think $LINK squeezes into 12 this week or flushes 11.2 first?
NFA, just my chart notes.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$WLD has been pinned around 0.47 since yesterday's dump. Low was 0.4564, every bounce since has died under 0.473, and it's still about 2% red on Binance futures today. Not much bounce for a coin that was near 0.57 a couple days ago.
What stands out to me is the funding. It's been negative on 3 of the last 4 prints, now around -0.014%, while OI crept back up from ~169M to ~174M WLD. So new shorts are piling in right at the lows. Top traders are still heavily long though (~72% of positions, L/S ~2.6), they just trimmed a bit from yesterday.
NanoTrading Fire chart 4h shows the fuel above. Big short cluster (~$81M) sits just over 0.50, right near VAL 0.489, with POC way up at 0.515. Only a ~$29M long stack sits right under price, and the orderbook view has walls stacked around 0.48 and 0.52-0.54.
My read: shorts getting this crowded at the lows is how squeezes start. Reclaim 0.489 and that 0.50 cluster is the magnet. Lose 0.456 and the long stack gets swept first. Keeping an eye on $BTC since WLD won't move alone 👀
Squeeze to 0.50 first or one more flush under 0.456 on $WLD ?
NFA, just how i see it.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$ENA bounced off 0.1837 yesterday and is back around 0.194, but every push toward 0.20 keeps getting sold. Still down about 3% on the day on Binance futures, so this bounce hasn't proven anything yet.
NanoTrading Fire chart 4h is pretty clear on where the fuel is. Biggest cluster on the board is ~$113.8M of shorts around 0.214, while two long stacks (~$67M and ~$59M) sit right under price near 0.192. POC is 0.1989, VAL 0.1845, so price is stuck just below value with the heaviest heat bands at 0.198-0.202.
Positioning leans long. ~61% of Binance accounts are long (L/S ~1.59) and top traders are around 61% long too. Funding is mildly positive (~0.005%), and OI slipped from ~495M to ~485M ENA during the dip, so some longs already got flushed but not all of them.
My read: lose 0.192 and those long stacks get swept, probably back to the 0.184-0.185 area. Reclaim 0.199 POC with volume and the 0.214 shorts become the magnet. Watching $BTC too since ENA won't do much alone 👀
Are you fading the 0.20 rejection on $ENA or waiting for the 0.214 squeeze?
NFA, just how i see it.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)
$SUI has been bleeding slowly all weekend, from about 1.00 down to a 0.9107 low on Binance futures, and now it's just sitting around 0.938 doing nothing. Quiet chop like this usually ends with one fast move.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart 4h, the obvious thing is the short liquidation stack overhead: roughly $88M of shorts clustered around 0.97-0.98, and another ~$75M up near 1.03-1.04. Volume profile POC is 0.994 with VAL at 0.9565, so price is trading below value right now. The heatmap's brightest band underneath sits around 0.90-0.91, right where that wick got bought.
Positioning is lopsided. About 66% of Binance accounts are long (L/S ~1.95) and top traders are ~67% long too, while funding is basically flat (-0.002%) and OI hasn't moved much (~106M to 107M SUI). Lots of longs, nobody paying up for them.
My read: reclaim 0.9565 and those 0.97 shorts become the magnet, with 0.994 POC behind it. Lose 0.91 and the crowded longs are the fuel instead. Keeping one eye on $BTC chopping near 80k 👀
Who's got the 0.97 squeeze vs the 0.91 retest on $SUI ?
NFA, just my read.
Source: NanoTrading Fire chart (nanotradingclub.xyz)