btc

Michael Saylor’s Strategy just sold another 1,690 BTC for roughly $108.6 million.
And this isn’t a one-off anymore.
Between August 3 and August 9, Strategy sold those BTC at an average price of $64,262, then used the entire $108.6 million to buy back 1.15 million STRC preferred shares. This is now the second consecutive week we’ve seen Strategy sell Bitcoin.
When I first saw the headline, my immediate reaction was basically: Wait, Saylor is actually selling again?
Because for years, the entire Strategy thesis was built around one simple idea: Sell everything else. Buy Bitcoin. Never sell the Bitcoin.
That part has clearly changed.
But I don’t think the right way to interpret this is simply, “Saylor is bearish on Bitcoin.” That’s too easy.
Strategy officially changed its capital strategy in June when it introduced its Digital Credit Capital Framework. The company now has authorization to monetize up to $1.25 billion of BTC when needed to build its dollar reserve, fund preferred dividends and interest, or repurchase securities. Strategy described the shift as moving toward more active capital management.
And that’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
Strategy sold $108.6 million of Bitcoin and immediately recycled that money into STRC.
So this isn’t really “Bitcoin in, dollars out.”
It’s more like Bitcoin → liquidity → strengthen the capital structure.
That’s an important distinction.
Strategy still owns an absolutely ridiculous amount of Bitcoin. After this latest sale, the company holds 840,447 BTC, acquired for roughly $63.36 billion, at an average cost of about $75,385 per BTC. At Bitcoin prices around $65K, that means the company’s average position is currently underwater.
And here’s where things get interesting.
Strategy has now sold roughly 6,900+ BTC during 2026 for approximately $432 million. That sounds massive until you put it against the size of the treasury.
We’re talking about less than 1% of its Bitcoin holdings.
So I’m not looking at this and thinking Saylor has suddenly abandoned Bitcoin.
I’m looking at it as a company that has discovered something very important about its own financial machine: Bitcoin is an asset, but the preferred-stock structure creates obligations that have to be funded in dollars.
That’s where STRC comes into the picture.
Strategy has around $1.76 billion in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations, according to reporting around its new framework. The company has been building its dollar reserve specifically to make sure those obligations can be covered without being forced into ugly decisions during a Bitcoin crash.
And the reserve is getting big.
Strategy said it raised about $653.1 million through MSTR common-stock sales during the latest week, pushing its USD reserve to roughly $4.65 billion. That’s more than twice the amount it just raised from selling BTC.
That tells me something.
The Bitcoin sales aren’t currently the main source of Strategy’s liquidity. They’re one tool in a much bigger capital-management strategy.
And honestly, that’s probably healthier than pretending Bitcoin can never be touched under any circumstances.
But there is still a problem. Strategy is selling Bitcoin while BTC is below its average acquisition price.
That’s not exactly a flex.
It means the company is effectively monetizing part of its Bitcoin position at a loss relative to its average cost basis, while using the proceeds to stabilize another part of the balance sheet. That doesn’t make the strategy broken, but it does show how complicated the Saylor machine has become.
The market is watching this closely because Strategy isn’t just another corporate Bitcoin holder.
It has become one of the biggest sources of leveraged Bitcoin exposure in traditional markets.
If Bitcoin rallies, MSTR can benefit massively.
But when BTC struggles, the pressure doesn’t just hit Bitcoin.
It hits MSTR.
It hits the preferred stocks.
It hits the company’s ability to raise capital.
And suddenly that famous “buy Bitcoin forever” machine needs liquidity.
That’s the part I think the market is slowly beginning to understand.
So am I bearish because Strategy sold another $108.6 million of BTC?
No.
But I am paying attention.
If these sales keep accelerating, if the company starts selling much larger portions of its treasury, or if Bitcoin falls far enough that Strategy’s financing model starts getting seriously stressed, then the story changes.
Right now, though, the numbers tell a different story.
Strategy still owns 840,447 BTC.
It just raised another $653 million through MSTR.
Its dollar reserve has climbed to around $4.65 billion.
And the latest Bitcoin sale was used to buy back STRC rather than simply disappear into the company’s expenses.
So my takeaway is pretty simple.
Saylor isn’t throwing in the towel on Bitcoin. He’s learning that even the biggest Bitcoin bull on Wall Street needs a cash-management strategy.
The interesting question now isn’t “Will Strategy ever sell Bitcoin again?”
We already have the answer.
The real question is:
How much BTC will Strategy be willing to sell if Bitcoin enters another serious downturn?
That’s the number I’m watching.
#BTC走势分析 #BTC

不是矿工砸的。
不是期货爆的。
是贝莱德砸的。
贝莱德的 75 万枚比特币，全是别人的钱——谁在持有，什么时候割肉？
2026 年以来，美国现货比特币 ETF 净流出 76,381 枚 BTC（-5.87%）。
7.6 万枚比特币，从 ETF 里赎出来，砸到市场上。
谁是最大的 ETF？贝莱德 IBIT。
所以那个"为什么 BTC 一路阴跌"的问题，答案一半就写在 ETF 的赎回数据里。
另一半？看贝莱德的客户什么时候割完。
全球持仓排名：贝莱德不是第一，但它是最大的通道
持有比特币最多的机构是 Strategy——840,447 枚，84 万。
贝莱德 IBIT 第二：747,724 枚，约 75 万。
但贝莱德才是那个更值得盯的角色：美国全部现货 ETF 合计持有 1,225,395 枚，IBIT 一家占 61%。
散户买卖比特币，一半以上的单子要过它的账本。
Strategy 的 84 万枚是"死筹"。
贝莱德的 75 万枚是"活筹"——每一枚背后都是一个随时可能按下赎回键的客户。
谁才是真正的抛售来源，一目了然。
ETF 赎回就是抛售
而贝莱德 IBIT 是最大的 ETF，赎回潮里它是最粗的那根管子。
最有意思的反差在这：上周 IBIT 还净流入 8.5 亿美元（散户在抄底），但 YTD 是净流出 7.6 万枚（大户在撤）。
散户的抄底，接的是大户的货。
这个剧本和 2025 年顶部一模一样，只是方向反过来了。
贝莱德的 75 万枚，是谁的钱？
贝莱德自己永远不卖——它只收 0.25% 管理费。
会卖的是它的客户。
套利机器（持仓占比最大，信仰为零）
Jane Street、Cumberland、Millennium。做市、吃折溢价、卖波动率。BTC 越跌他们生意越好做。
他们的抛售不是决策，是算法。折价一扩大就赎回，毫秒级。赎回数据里的每一笔异常波动，一半是他们。
401k 中产（数量最多）
月定投 1%-5% 仓位，2024-2025 年入场，成本 8-10 万（估算）。现在浮亏 25%-35%。
他们不盯盘。他们抛售的触发条件是生活：失业、房贷、学费。钱要从账户出来时，第一个被卖的是"看不懂的比特币"。
养老金试水者（跑得最快）
威斯康星 1.6 亿、密歇根 2500 万——占它们资产 <0.1%。
他们的抛售是政治事件：听证会、SEC 换帅、托管出事。不公告、不解释，下一季 13F 里悄悄消失。
散户 FOMO 盘（最坚定，浮亏最深）
2024 年底到 2025 年高点入场，成本 10-12 万，浮亏 40%-50%。还在买——上周 8.5 亿流入就是他们。
他们抛售的触发条件是情绪：回本的那一刻。
什么情况下会抛售？四个触发器
触发器一：已经在抛了（YTD -76,381 枚）
这不是预测，是现状。
2026 年 1-8 月，ETF 净流出 7.6 万枚（60-70 亿美元）。
第一张多米诺已经倒下，跌 49% 就是结果。
触发器二：反弹即抛（最大卖压藏在回本线）
套牢盘的心理价位是回本。IBIT 整体成本估算 8.5-9.5 万，散户成本 10-12 万。
BTC 反弹到 9-10 万，三年套牢盘集体解套出货——那波抛压会比 6 万附近的恐慌盘大一个量级。
每次反弹到前高放巨量，就是解套盘在跑。
触发器三：破位即抛
- 跌破 5 万：财富管理渠道合规风控触发，模型组合强制调出，赎回潮加速——ETF 连续净流出会变成周度净流出
- 跌破 3 万：2022 年前高平台区，信仰盘最后防线，连环清算
- 跌破前低：趋势资金全部离场，ETF 赎回 + 期货强平 + 矿工抛售三杀。
参考 2022 年：3 万到 1.5 万只用了 6 个月
触发器四：事件即抛
- 美股暴跌（最容易发生的一条）：保证金账户被追缴时，杠杆投资者第一个卖的是流动性最好的资产——BTC。
2020 年 3 月 COVID 崩盘，BTC 两天跌 50%，不是加密出了什么利空，是杠杆盘在卖一切能卖的补保证金。
美股越是"AI 泡沫"级别的暴跌，BTC 越是先挨刀
怎么空？
现价空 63,900-64,500（首仓 30%） → 止损 66,200 / 66,800
反弹加仓 1：65,500-66,500（+30%） → 加仓后止损统一 68,000
反弹加仓 2：69,000-70,500（+25%，MA200 主阻力） → 止损统一 71,500
反弹加仓 3：72,500-73,500（+15%，Fib 0.786） → 总硬止损 75,500
止盈阶梯：62,000 → 57,800 → 50,000 → 30,000
纪律：总仓封顶、逐级递减、总风险 ≤2%、止损被扫后在 69,000+ 重新挂空不追单
3 万不是终点，是下一站
75 万枚浮筹，每一枚都有主人，每一个主人都有一个价格。
价格到了，筹码就换手。
跌破 5 万，风控盘强制离场。
跌破 4万，信仰盘开始崩。
然后？参考 2022 年：3 万到 1.5 万，只用了 6 个月。
接盘的，永远是下一个被"机构入场""数字黄金""这次不一样"吸引进来的人。
#BTC $BTC