Wendy 🇻🇳

The market just raised the odds of a Fed rate hike to 70%. But what if CPI tells a different story? 👀

Yesterday’s PPI pushed hawkish bets higher, but I think the market may be getting ahead of itself.

The headline PPI was hot, yet Core PPI was much less alarming. At the same time, existing-home sales remain weak near 4M annualized, while wage growth and hours worked have been trending lower.

That matters.

Higher energy and transportation costs can raise business costs without necessarily creating a broad inflation spiral. Raising rates won't create more oil either.

So I’m watching Core CPI much more closely than the headline number.

👉 Core CPI ≤ 0.2% MoM: inflation pressure is still cooling. The case for a September hike weakens, which could give $BTC some relief.

👉 Core CPI ≥ 0.3% MoM: broader price pressure would look more persistent, giving the hawks a stronger argument and potentially putting more pressure on $BTC.

Personally, I think the market is pricing in too much hawkishness before seeing the CPI data.

One number could change that narrative tonight.

What’s your call: Fed hike or hold?

#CPIWatch #Bitcoin #Crypto

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and consider the risks before making any investment or trading decision.