Kalirypto

That’s the question everyone is asking, but no one can answer definitively.
I can’t give a specific date—no one can. But when we combine the charts and on-chain metrics, what emerges isn’t a vague prediction, but a clear timeline and a checklist.
Let’s take a look at the data, step by step.
First, the chart. Bitcoin is currently around $63,000, down more than 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000.
Technically, we’re still in bear territory. That’s because the price is stuck right around the 200-day moving average (61,000–65,000), which separates the bulls from the bears.
For the bulls to technically declare, “I’m back,” only one thing is needed: a sustained retake of the 66,000–70,000 range. Until that level is breached, the trend structure remains bearish.
On the downside, there are two critical support levels. The $58,000–$62,000 range represents both the 200-week moving average and the “generational buying” zone—in other words, the likely bottom for the year.
If this level breaks, attention will shift to the $50,000–$55,000 range—the true bottom of the cycle.
Now let’s look beyond the chart at the on-chain data. Because that’s where the real story lies.
The MVRV Z-score valuation metric stands at 0.22. This means the price is very close to its true cost—on the cheap side.
But keep this in mind: during past bottoms, this score had dipped into negative territory, reaching levels like -0.20 and -0.29. So, while we’re cheap, the absolute bottom hasn’t been confirmed yet.
The fear index is in the "extreme fear" zone. Most Bitcoin is now held at a loss, which is a sign of capitulation—indicating that selling pressure has run out.
The supply side, however, remains solid. Long-term holders are holding and accumulating 78 percent of the supply, while the amount on exchanges is at a seven-year low. In other words, the foundation is slowly becoming more solid.
So what does the calendar say? This is the most concrete part.
Bitcoin has historically moved in a four-year cycle, and bear markets have lasted an average of 12 months. Counting from the October 2025 peak, this takes you to the fourth quarter of 2026—specifically, the October–December range.
So the math of history suggests that the bottom will most likely form in the fourth quarter of this year—likely with a final drop to 50,000–55,000.
But let me be clear about this. A bottom does not mean a bull market.
A bottom is simply the end of the decline; the spark that triggers the rally is something entirely different. And that spark lies in the macro picture.
The real catalyst for the bull market is the central bank turning on the tap: interest rate cuts and easing inflation.
The first test of that spark is coming very soon. This month’s inflation data and the Fed meeting on July 29 will provide the first real signal.
Now let’s put it all together, because the answer isn’t a date—it’s a sequence of events.
The groundwork is already being laid: supply is scarce, owners are hoarding, and valuations are low. For the chart to turn bullish, it needs to reclaim the 66,000–70,000 range. The Fed’s pivot will be the real trigger.
So the base scenario is this: a bottoming process heading into the fourth quarter of 2026, perhaps a final dip to 50,000–55,000, and the real bull run will begin when the Fed starts cutting rates and the price recovers to 66,000.
There are three clear things to watch. Will it hold between 58,000 and 62,000 on the downside? Will it recover to 66,000–70,000 on the upside? And when will the Fed pivot?
To be honest, this could happen earlier or later. If the Fed cuts rates quickly and 66,000 is retaken swiftly, the bull market will arrive sooner than expected.
If 58,000 is broken or inflation proves stubborn, the process will drag on and deepen. No one knows the exact day—not even me.
But now you’re looking at these three signals, not the calendar. That’s the beauty of it: instead of predicting, you’ll be observing.
Which do you think will spark the trend first: the retest of 66,000 on the chart, or the Fed’s first rate cut?