XRP Volume Z-Score on Binance Hits Lowest Level Since 2025
Binance data on XRP indicates a significant decline in trading activity recently, with the Z-Score falling to its lowest level since 2025. This clearly points to weakening market momentum and a decrease in short-term trader interest.
The Volume Z-Score (30d) reflects the extent to which current trading volume deviates from its 30-day average. When the index falls into negative territory, it means that current trading volume is below the historical average, indicating reduced activity and liquidity. According to recent data, the index has dropped below -1, marking one of its lowest levels since 2025 and reflecting a clear slowdown in XRP trading on the Binance platform.
Meanwhile, the price of XRP has shown a gradual downward trend over the same period, declining from higher levels in 2025 to lower ranges recently. This suggests that the decrease in trading volume has coincided with weakening price action. A decline in trading volume is typically associated with a period of market anticipation, during which investors prefer to wait for clearer signals before entering new positions.
A decline in the Z-Score also indicates reduced investor participation, particularly among short-term traders who rely heavily on momentum and trading volume. When activity drops to these levels, the market often enters a consolidation phase, which typically precedes strong upward or downward price movements.
On the other hand, this decline may also reflect reduced market volatility, with fewer large buy and sell orders resulting in weaker price action. This pattern is common after periods of high activity, as the market tends to enter a rebalancing phase.
Bear market bottoming is a marathon of exhaustion. While data suggests we are halfway through, a final "wash-out" is likely still ahead. As the saying goes: history may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
On-Chain Indicators:
1. Whale Profits (Unrealized): LTH Whales (>155 days) still hold significant profit buffers. Historically, true bottoms occur only when these profits approach zero, forcing a final transfer of chips from "strong hands" to the desperate.
2. MVRV Z-Score: This valuation metric is cooling but has yet to enter the negative/undervalued zone. Every "iron bottom" in history has seen this score dip below zero; currently, the market is merely cooling, not despairing.
3. Cost Basis (STH vs. LTH): A "Death Cross"—where Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price falls below Long-Term Holder (LTH) price—is the ultimate capitulation signal. This hasn't happened yet, meaning the final shuffle is incomplete.
🔮 Cycle Predictions:
1. The Bottom: Oct-Dec 2026
Rationale: At current trajectories, the STH and LTH cost curves should converge in Q4 2026. This timing aligns with a potential sub-zero MVRV Z-Score and a final panic sell-off by whales.
Target: $55K – $60K, coinciding with a sub-zero MVRV Z-Score.
2. The Next Peak: 2nd half of 2029
Rationale: Following a late 2026 bottom, we expect a two-year accumulation phase. Combined with the April 2028 Halving, the market typically peaks 12–18 months post-halving, making late 2029 the likely window for the next parabolic bull run.