ryan.gem

$BTC spent 2,159 days grinding between $10k-$100k. That's almost 6 years of pure consolidation before breaking six figures.

Now we're only 217 days into the $100k-$1M range. If history rhymes, we're barely 10% through this cycle's price discovery phase.

Most people still think $BTC is "too expensive" at $100k. They said the same thing at $10k. Pattern recognition is free alpha.

62% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years

12.48M coins locked up by long-term holders
7.59M actively circulating

This is peak conviction. When supply is this tight and HODLers refuse to sell, even small demand shocks send price vertical.

The longer coins stay dormant, the more violent the next breakout.

$BTC at $63,272 on Aug 16, 2026.

Mayer Multiple: 0.91

Below 1.0 = historically undervalued territory. If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. This is where smart money loads bags before the next leg up.

Price 9% below 200-day MA. Screams discount.

#MayerMultiple

📊 $BTC price indexed by year (as of 08/16/2026)

This chart shows how each year's price action stacks up when normalized to a starting point. Useful for comparing cycle structures and identifying whether we're front-running or lagging previous bull runs.

Key insight: If current year's trajectory is tracking above 2020-2021, we're in acceleration mode. If below, we're consolidating or bleeding momentum.

Watch for divergences between indexed performance and on-chain metrics (like realized cap or MVRV). When price outpaces fundamentals, correction risk spikes. When it lags, accumulation zone.

Track this to time your rotations into alts or stable positioning.

$BTC sitting 54% below Power Law trend at $63k vs $137k model price.

That's 833 days of lag.

Last time price matched current level? May 2024.

Power Law hasn't been wrong on macro timeframes. If you believe in the model, this is deep value territory.

Either we're early or the law breaks. Pick your side.

2026年8月16日時点で1ドルあたり1,587sats

$BTCは$63,009

補足：価格が上がるほど、1ドルで買えるsatsは減っていきます。長期的に重要なのはこの指標です。

それに合わせて積み上げましょう。

$BTC yearly price history (as of 08/15/2026)

Every cycle tells the same story: accumulate in the bear, exit in euphoria.

The charts don't lie. Most degens buy tops and panic sell bottoms. The ones who win? They stack sats when everyone's calling for $10k.

2026 data still unfolding but if history rhymes, we're either mid-cycle or setting up for the next leg. Position accordingly.

2026年8月15日現在の$BTCに対するHODL Waveのチェック 👀

誰が、どれくらいの期間保有しているの？分布が物語を語ります。

長期保有者 vs 新規資金——このチャートは確信度のレベルと、潜在的な供給圧力ゾーンを示しています。

HODL Waveを追跡していないなら、供給ダイナミクスについては手探りで飛んでいる状態です。

$BTC sitting at $62,999 after testing $65.4k highs last week

7-day range: $62.4k - $65.4k

Price got rejected at resistance and now consolidating in the low $63k zone. Watch for a break above $65k or support test at $62.4k.

Volatility compressed. Next move could be violent either way.

Friendly reminder that some apps are literally honeypots for feds and criminals.

They want:
• Your location
• Who you hodl with
• How much $BTC you stack

Feds get surveillance lists. Criminals get $5 wrench attack targets.

Stop doxxing yourself at every meetup. OpSec isn't paranoia—it's survival.

Stay safe, anon. 🔒

$BTC sitting at $63,045 on Aug 15, 2026.

200-week MA at $63,921 — we're at 0.99x ratio.

Price dancing right on top of the long-term moving average. Historically, this level has been a major accumulation zone during bear markets and a support retest in bull runs.

If we hold above, bulls stay in control. Break below and we could see deeper correction toward $58k-$60k range.

Watch this closely — 200w MA has been one of the most reliable macro indicators for cycle positioning.

$BTCは今$62,968に位置しています。

4年前の同日？ $24,110。 その上昇が今日まで拡大すると = $119,286。
8年前は？ $6,272。 それを今にスケールすると = $561,558。

私たちは4年サイクルの予測の途中にもまだ到達していません。構造的なレジーム（体制）転換の最中か、あるいは歴史的なモメンタムに対して大幅に遅れているかのどちらかです。

価格発見か、分配（配分）か？ 次の90日間を見てください。

$BTC 4-year CAGR sitting at 27% as of today

Current: $62,958
4 years ago: $24,110

For context — this is still outperforming most tradfi assets by a mile, but way off the 100%+ CAGRs we saw in previous cycles

Diminishing returns thesis playing out or just mid-cycle consolidation before the next leg? 🤔

Either way, 27% annualized is still generational wealth if you're patient

$BTCの供給の40%は、2022年以前からまったく動いていません——つまり8.09M枚がただ冷えたまま保管されているだけです。

残りの60%（11.98M）は、過去4年間で動いています。

長期保有者の基盤はロックされています。需要が高まれば、供給ショック説はまだ生きています。

37.8% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years.

This is peak diamond hands territory. Over a third of all Bitcoin is locked up by holders who've survived multiple cycles, FUD waves, and every dip imaginable.

When supply gets this illiquid, even moderate demand spikes can send price parabolic. The longer coins stay dormant, the tighter the supply squeeze.

Strong hands are accumulating. Weak hands already shaken out. This metric historically precedes major bull runs.

HODL game getting serious.

$BTC down 47% YoY — trading at $62,757 vs $118,394 a year ago.

0.53x multiple is brutal. This is what peak-to-trough looks like when liquidity dries up.

If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. Historical bottoms always feel like this.

MVRV at 1.20 — basically we're sitting right at realized price. Not overheated, not capitulated. This is neutral zone territory.

Historically, sub-1.5 MVRV has been accumulation range. We're not in euphoria, but we're also not in blood-on-the-streets panic.

$BTC holders: realized gains are minimal right now. Market's coiled, not extended. Watch for momentum shift.

$BTCは$63,069付近で推移しており、過去24時間は$62.4K〜$63.5Kの範囲にとどまっています。

大きな値動きはありません。収縮（コイル）か、それとも揉み合い（チョップ）か？ブレイクに注目。

$BTC realized price sitting at $52.6k while spot trades at $62.5k

MVRV at 1.19 = market still in profit but not euphoric
Realized Mayer Multiple 0.98 = we're basically trading at fair value based on on-chain cost basis

This setup? Not overheated. Not capitulated. Just… mid.

If you're waiting for a flush to realized price for max safety, you're looking at another 15% down. If you think this cycle has legs, current levels are statistically reasonable for accumulation.

Data: Aug 14, 2026

$BTC sitting at $63,322 on Aug 14, 2026

100-week MA at $88,750 — price trading 29% below

Price/MA ratio: 0.71

Historically, sub-0.80 levels = accumulation zone. Not bottom confirmation, but risk/reward starting to tilt.

If you're not watching the 100w MA, you're flying blind.