Dec $CL closed Thursday up 2.72% while $XLE fell 2.98% in the same session. The S&P 500 lost 4.1% that day and energy stocks went down with it even as the barrel went up... $XOM was lower too, so if you hold producers as an oil proxy, Thursday was a session where that proxy didn't do its job.
They've moved roughly together since the end of October, XLE -11.98% against Dec WTI's -13.06%, so I don't read Thursday as a break. XLE is a basket of stocks, and on a day the whole tape sells it gets sold with everything else.
Rates moved the same way. Fed funds futures took roughly 0.7 of a hike out of every 2027 meeting in that one session, even with Hammack calling for gradual hikes and Barkin calling inflation the committee's most important risk. I think the market's putting the growth hit ahead of the inflation hit for now, and in that kind of tape I'd expect energy equities to trade the growth scare first.
Payrolls come out this morning into that strip, and I'm watching whether $XLE starts tracking crude again once the index stops falling.
#Oil #Energy #Fed #Macro #Stocks
They've moved roughly together since the end of October, XLE -11.98% against Dec WTI's -13.06%, so I don't read Thursday as a break. XLE is a basket of stocks, and on a day the whole tape sells it gets sold with everything else.
Rates moved the same way. Fed funds futures took roughly 0.7 of a hike out of every 2027 meeting in that one session, even with Hammack calling for gradual hikes and Barkin calling inflation the committee's most important risk. I think the market's putting the growth hit ahead of the inflation hit for now, and in that kind of tape I'd expect energy equities to trade the growth scare first.
Payrolls come out this morning into that strip, and I'm watching whether $XLE starts tracking crude again once the index stops falling.
#Oil #Energy #Fed #Macro #Stocks