The hike is already priced.
The real trade is what comes after.
August core CPI: +0.3% MoM
25bp hike odds: ~90%
I expect the Fed to deliver 25bp this week.
But the bigger question is simple:
Is this a one-off… or the start of a new hiking cycle?
Two clear paths:
→ If Powell signals “one and done”
BTC and tech can stabilize after the initial reaction.
→ If the door stays open for more hikes
Higher-for-longer hits hard. 10Y already above 5%. Liquidity tightens. Risk assets suffer.
My current stance:
• BTC & Tech → Cautious. Not adding size into the decision.
• Gold → Watching for weakness. Prefer buying dips over chasing strength.
The surprise won’t be the 25bp.
It will be the path after September.
How are you positioned going into the FOMC?
Share your BTC, stocks or gold setup.
#FedRateWatch
$BTC $AKE $SAGA
#FedRateWatch
The real trade is what comes after.
August core CPI: +0.3% MoM
25bp hike odds: ~90%
I expect the Fed to deliver 25bp this week.
But the bigger question is simple:
Is this a one-off… or the start of a new hiking cycle?
Two clear paths:
→ If Powell signals “one and done”
BTC and tech can stabilize after the initial reaction.
→ If the door stays open for more hikes
Higher-for-longer hits hard. 10Y already above 5%. Liquidity tightens. Risk assets suffer.
My current stance:
• BTC & Tech → Cautious. Not adding size into the decision.
• Gold → Watching for weakness. Prefer buying dips over chasing strength.
The surprise won’t be the 25bp.
It will be the path after September.
How are you positioned going into the FOMC?
Share your BTC, stocks or gold setup.
#FedRateWatch
$BTC $AKE $SAGA
#FedRateWatch
