FOMC September: 90% Odds of 25bp Hike After 0.3% CPI - One-Off or New Cycle? #FedRateWatch
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and now odds of a 25bp hike this week are close to 90% - Market is on edge!
Do I anticipate a Fed rate hike this week? Yes, I do. But in my view this is a one-off hawkish move to control sticky inflation, not the start of a longer hiking cycle. Fed cannot afford to start aggressive hiking again with liquidity needed in Q4.
If the hike lands, how does it play out?
BTC: Short-term bearish, may see a quick wick to $108k-$110k on fear, then bullish reversal. Historically the last hike is always a buy-the-dip opportunity before a bigger pump.
Tech Stocks: Bearish for 2-3 days, Nasdaq likely to drop 2%, but AI leaders will bounce first.
Gold: Bullish long-term. Whenever Fed tightens into weak data, Gold becomes safe haven. $3650 is possible.
How am I planning to trade next?
I am not panic selling. My plan is 60% BTC spot holding till $124k, adding on any dip to $109.5k, 30% Gold long from $3585, and 10% cash to scalp tech volatility after FOMC. Risk management first - tight stop loss, no over-leverage.
FOMC fear is temporary, trend is still up!
#FedRateWatch #FOMC #BTC #Gold
$BTC
$PAXG
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and now odds of a 25bp hike this week are close to 90% - Market is on edge!
Do I anticipate a Fed rate hike this week? Yes, I do. But in my view this is a one-off hawkish move to control sticky inflation, not the start of a longer hiking cycle. Fed cannot afford to start aggressive hiking again with liquidity needed in Q4.
If the hike lands, how does it play out?
BTC: Short-term bearish, may see a quick wick to $108k-$110k on fear, then bullish reversal. Historically the last hike is always a buy-the-dip opportunity before a bigger pump.
Tech Stocks: Bearish for 2-3 days, Nasdaq likely to drop 2%, but AI leaders will bounce first.
Gold: Bullish long-term. Whenever Fed tightens into weak data, Gold becomes safe haven. $3650 is possible.
How am I planning to trade next?
I am not panic selling. My plan is 60% BTC spot holding till $124k, adding on any dip to $109.5k, 30% Gold long from $3585, and 10% cash to scalp tech volatility after FOMC. Risk management first - tight stop loss, no over-leverage.
FOMC fear is temporary, trend is still up!
#FedRateWatch #FOMC #BTC #Gold
$BTC
$PAXG
